This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5823

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                  ------------------CE44B7  061550Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8364
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AA/AFR, VDICKSON-HORTON, AND AFR/SA, CPALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00930  01 OF 04  061550Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/06/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT:  MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE LEADERSHIP TAKES 
STOCK OF PARTY DEFICIENCIES AND CONCRETE STEPS TO 
ADDRESS THEM 
 
REFS: A) HARARE 903, B) HARARE 856, C) HARARE 767, 
      D) HARARE 655 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) 
HAS MOVED TO ADDRESS SERIOUS ORGANIZATIONAL PROBLEMS BY 
HIRING A RESPECTED CIVIL SOCIETY ACTIVIST TO BE NATIONAL 
COORDINATOR TO MANAGE THE PARTY'S AFFAIRS AND A PUBLIC 
RELATIONS PROFESSIONAL TO RUN ITS INFORMATION DEPARTMENT. 
THE PARTY IS WORKING HARD TO DEVISE A RANGE OF THOROUGHLY 
VETTED POLICIES, AND TO DISSEMINATE THEM WIDELY.  HOWEVER, 
LACK OF RESOURCES AND DISTRUST BETWEEN THE PARTY'S YOUNG 
AND OLD MEMBERS REMAIN SERIOUS PROBLEMS.  DESPITE 
INTENSIFYING INTIMIDATION AND HARASSMENT OF ITS SENIOR 
LEADERS, THE MDC IS ACTIVELY PREPARING FOR THE UPCOMING 
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.  THE RECENT ELECTION OF A PRO-MDC 
SLATE TO THE LEADERSHIP OF THE ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE 
UNIONS (ZCTU) PROVIDES A SIGNIFICANT BOOST TO THE ELECTORAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00930  01 OF 04  061550Z 
STRATEGY OF THE OPPOSITION PARTY, WHICH ALSO IS MOVING 
ENERGETICALLY TO COURT RURAL VOTERS, HISTORICALLY A ZANU-PF 
STRONGHOLD.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) WE HAVE MET RECENTLY WITH A VARIETY OF SENIOR 
OFFICIALS OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE 
(MDC), INCLUDING DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL GIFT CHIMANIKIRE, 
MPS AND EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEMBERS TRUDY STEVENSON, DAVID 
COLTART, PAUL NYATHI, AND TENDAI BITI, AND ASSISTANT TO THE 
PRESIDENT GANDI MUDZINGWA.  THEY PROVIDED KEEN INSIGHTS ON 
THE MDC'S INTERNAL DYNAMICS AND ITS PRIORITIES, INCLUDING 
THE PARTY'S STRATEGY FOR THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. 
 
RESTRUCTURING 
------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) THE LACK OF AN EFFECTIVE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE 
HAS SERIOUSLY HAMPERED THE MDC'S ABILITY TO MAINTAIN 
INTERNAL COHESIVENESS, LET ALONE BUILD ON ITS ACHIEVEMENTS 
IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  IN A FEBRUARY 27 
CONVERSATION WITH POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, MP DAVID COLTART 
DESCRIBED THE PARTY'S INFORMATION DEPARTMENT AS A "DISASTER" 
AND THE ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT AS A "MESS."  HIS COLLEAGUE 
TRUDY STEVENSON AGREED, POINTING OUT TO US ON FEBRUARY 23 
THAT EVEN SENIOR OFFICIALS IN THE PARTY ARE NOT KEPT IN THE 
LOOP ON MAJOR PARTY EVENTS.  FOR INSTANCE, SHE HAD HEARD 
THAT MDC RALLIES WOULD BE HELD THE FOLLOWING DAY IN 
HARARE, BUT SHE, ALTHOUGH AN EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEMBER, 
HAD NOT BEEN INFORMED WHERE OR WHEN THEY WOULD BE HELD. 
 
¶4.  (C) THE MDC HAS RECENTLY MOVED TO ADDRESS THIS SERIOUS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00930  01 OF 04  061550Z 
SHORTCOMING, HOWEVER, BY HIRING A NATIONAL COORDINATOR WHO 
WILL, QUITE LITERALLY, COORDINATE AND ALL OF THE PARTY'S 
ACTIVITIES.  (COMMENT: THE PERSON SELECTED FOR THIS POSITION, 
ISAAC MAPOSA, DEMONSTRATED AN IMPRESSIVE TALENT FOR 
MARSHALING PEOPLE AND RESOURCES WHEN HE WAS EXECUTIVE 
DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY'S EFFORT 
IN 1999 TO DRAFT A NEW CONSTITUTION.  HE IS WELL-LIKED AND 
WELL-RESPECTED, AND ALL OF THE MDC MEMBERS WITH WHOM WE 
SPOKE WERE CONFIDENT THAT HE WOULD BE ABLE TO IMPOSE SOME 
DISCIPLINE ON A PARTY WHICH SORELY NEEDS IT.  MAPOSA 
REPORTEDLY TOOK UP HIS NEW DUTIES IN EARLY MARCH, IN SPITE 
OF UNRESOLVED QUESTIONS ABOUT REMUNERATION.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶5.  (C) STEVENSON TOLD US THAT THE MDC PLANS TO HOLD 
REGULAR POLICY RETREATS ON PARTICULAR ISSUES.  THE FIRST 
ONE -- HELD IN LATE JANUARY -- FOCUSED ON THE ECONOMY AND 
LAND; THE PARTY'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE, MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, 
AND PROVINCIAL CHAIRPERSONS ALL PARTICIPATED. THE 
OBJECTIVES OF THE RETREATS, STEVENSON STRESSED, ARE TO 
THOROUGHLY VET POLICY POSITIONS BEFORE THEY ARE ANNOUNCED 
PUBLICLY AND TO ENSURE THAT MPS AND OTHER SENIOR PARTY 
OFFICIALS DELIVER A CONSISTENT MESSAGE.   THE PARTY'S 
POSITIONS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BE EXPLAINED IN REGULAR 
MEETINGS TO CONSTITUENTS AROUND THE COUNTRY. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5829 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
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                  ------------------CE44CE  061551Z /38 
R 061548Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8365 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 000930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AA/AFR, VDICKSON-HORTON, AND AFR/SA, CPALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00930  02 OF 04  061551Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/06/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT:  MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE LEADERSHIP TAKES 
STOCK OF PARTY DEFICIENCIES AND CONCRETE STEPS TO 
ADDRESS THEM 
 
¶6.  (C) STEVENSON LAMENTED THAT THE PARTY'S INFORMATION 
AND PUBLICITY DEPARTMENT HAS BEEN INEFFECTUAL, IN LARGE 
PART BECAUSE IT WAS RUN BY A LAWYER -- MP LEARNMORE 
JONGWE -- WHO HAS NO ACADEMIC PREPARATION OR PRACTICAL 
EXPERIENCE IN PUBLIC RELATIONS.  SHE EXPRESSED HOPE, 
HOWEVER, THAT THE RECENT HIRING OF A PERSON WITH A 
GRADUATE DEGREE IN COMMUNICATIONS WOULD HELP THE PARTY 
SHAPE AND DISSEMINATE A CONSISTENT, EFFECTIVE MESSAGE 
AND DEVELOP A DYNAMIC PUBLIC RELATIONS STRATEGY. 
 
LACK OF RESOURCES 
----------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) A LACK OF RESOURCES CONTINUES TO POSE A SERIOUS 
IMPEDIMENT FOR THE MDC.  MDC MP AND DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS 
PAUL NYATHI SAID THE PARTY LITERALLY HAS ALMOST NO MONEY 
IN THE BANK.  ONE REASON THE PARTY FINDS ITSELF IN SUCH 
DIRE FINANCIAL STRAITS IS THE GOVERNMENT'S STEADFAST 
REFUSAL TO RELEASE FUNDS TO WHICH THE MDC IS ENTITLED 
UNDER THE POLITICAL PARTIES ACT, BY VIRTUE OF ITS STRONG 
SHOWING IN LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  ON 
FEBRUARY 22, THE GOVERNMENT FINALLY AGREED TO HONOR ITS 
OBLIGATION UNDER THE LAW AND RELEASE WITHIN 30 DAYS 47 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00930  02 OF 04  061551Z 
MILLION ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS (APPROXIMATELY U.S. $630,000) 
TO THE MDC.  MDC MPS DAVID COLTART AND PAUL NYATHI BELIEVE, 
HOWEVER, THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL FIND WAYS TO AVOID HONORING 
THIS COMMITMENT.  WHY, THEY BOTH ASKED, WOULD A GOVERNMENT 
WHICH HAS DEMONSTRATED DISDAIN FOR THE RULE OF LAW PROVIDE 
THE MDC WITH A FINANCIAL WINDFALL AS BOTH PARTIES GEAR UP 
FOR A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?  MANY OF THE MDC'S DOMESTIC 
SOURCES OF REVENUE HAVE DRIED UP, TESTAMENT TO THE 
EFFECTIVENESS OF THE GOVERNMENT'S CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION 
AGAINST THE PARTY'S SUPPORTERS.  COLTART AND NYATHI ARE 
PLANNING A FUNDRAISING TRIP IN LATE MARCH TO LONDON, 
NEW YORK, AND WASHINGTON, WHICH WILL TARGET PRIMARILY 
ZIMBABWEAN EXPATRIATES. 
 
INCREASING THREATS/HARASSMENT 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) THE MDC'S EFFORT TO TRANSFORM ITSELF FROM A PROTEST 
MOVEMENT INTO A GENUINE, EFFECTIVE POLITICAL PARTY HAS BEEN 
HAMPERED BY INTENSIFYING GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED HARASSMENT 
AND INTIMIDATION.  DURING THE LAST MONTH, SENIOR MDC 
OFFICIALS -- INCLUDING PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AND 
VICE PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA -- HAVE BEEN CHARGED WITH 
INCITING VIOLENCE (REFS C AND D), WHILE SECURITY SECRETARY 
JOB SIKHALA AND HIS PREGNANT WIFE WERE TWICE BEATEN IN THEIR 
HOME BY MEN WEARING ARMY UNIFORMS.  IN ADDITION, FOUR MEN IN 
CIVILIAN CLOTHES ARRIVED AT SIKHALA'S HOUSE IN A POLICE 
VEHICLE AT MIDNIGHT ON FEBRUARY 25 THREATENING TO ARREST 
SIKHALA, BUT HE AND HIS FAMILY HID IN A NEARBY FIELD AFTER 
BEING WARNED BY THEIR GUARD.  THE UNKNOWN MEN BEAT SIKHALA'S 
GUARD AND FIRED AT LEAST ONE SHOT AT HIM AFTER HE MANAGED TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00930  02 OF 04  061551Z 
FLEE.  ON FEBRUARY 21, FOUR MDC OFFICIALS FROM VICTORIA FALLS 
WERE ARRESTED AND CHARGED UNDER THE COLONIAL-ERA LAW AND ORDER 
MAINTENANCE ACT (LOMA) WITH INCITING PUBLIC VIOLENCE AT A 
FEBRUARY 4 MDC RALLY.  THE FILING OF THESE CHARGES THREE WEEKS 
AFTER THE ALLEGED CRIME -- FLASHING RED CARDS DURING THE RALLY 
-- LIKELY WAS MOTIVATED BY A DESIRE TO ENSURE THAT THE MDC 
WOULD NOT TRY TO DISRUPT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S 77TH BIRTHDAY 
CELEBRATION IN VICTORIA FALLS ON FEBRUARY 24.  IN ADDITION, 
RUMORS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OF THE EXISTENCE OF A DEATH LIST 
CONTAINING THE NAMES OF SENIOR MDC OFFICIALS (REF B). 
 
INTERNAL FACTIONS 
----------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) TENSIONS BETWEEN THE MDC'S SHONA AND NDEBELE MEMBERS 
CONTINUE TO SIMMER, BUT THE STRAINS BETWEEN THE PARTY'S OLDER 
AND YOUNGER MEMBERS SEEM TO BE THE MOST SERIOUS.  ACCORDING 
TO STEVENSON, SOME OF THE PARTY'S YOUNG STARS USE 
UNNECESSARILY SHARP RHETORIC AT PUBLIC RALLIES PORTRAYING THE 
CURRENT POLITICAL STRUGGLE AS PITTING THE YOUNGER GENERATION 
-- REPRESENTED BY THE MDC -- VERSUS THE OLDER, DISCREDITED 
GENERATION -- REPRESENTED BY ZANU-PF.  AN ADDITIONAL CAUSE 
FOR CONCERN, ACCORDING TO STEVENSON, IS THAT YOUNG, 
SOPHISTICATED MDC CADRES STICK LIKE GLUE TO TSVANGIRAI. 
THEY EXPERTLY PLAY ON THE MDC PRESIDENT'S SENSITIVITY ABOUT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5830 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00930  03 OF 04  061551Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
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      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
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                  ------------------CE44D7  061551Z /38 
R 061548Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8366 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 000930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AA/AFR, VDICKSON-HORTON, AND AFR/SA, CPALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00930  03 OF 04  061551Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/06/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT:  MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE LEADERSHIP TAKES 
STOCK OF PARTY DEFICIENCIES AND CONCRETE STEPS TO 
ADDRESS THEM 
 
HIS LACK OF HIGHER EDUCATION TO MAINTAIN THEIR ACCESS TO HIM 
AND TO PREVENT OTHERS IN THE PARTY FROM GETTING TOO CLOSE. 
AFTER OLDER MEMBERS OF THE PARTY EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE RECENTLY 
COMPLAINED TO TSVANGIRAI THAT THE VEHEMENCE OF HIS YOUNG 
GATEKEEPERS WAS BECOMING A PROBLEM, THE MDC LEADER AGREED TO 
MAKE SOME CHANGES.  STEVENSON, WHO IS PROBABLY IN HER 50S, 
DESCRIBED FOUR YOUNG MDC MEMBERS WHOM SHE DOES NOT TRUST AS 
BEING POSSIBLE ZANU-PF PLANTS -- MPS TAFADZWA MUSEKIWA, JOB 
SIKHALA, AND LEARNMORE JONGWE (THE PARTY'S SPOKESMAN), AND 
NATIONAL YOUTH LEADER NELSON CHAMISA.  ASKED WHETHER SHE 
TRUSTED TSVANGIRAI'S PERSONAL ASSISTANT GANDI MUDZINGWA, 
STEVENSON REPLIED, "I DON'T TRUST ANYONE."  (COMMENT: WE 
HAVE NO EVIDENCE TO SUBSTANTIATE STEVENSON'S SUSPICIONS 
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.  WE CAN SAY WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF 
CONFIDENCE THAT HER DISTRUST OF CERTAIN YOUNGER MEMBERS 
IS A RESULT OF ZANU-PF'S STRATEGY TO SOW DOUBT AND DISCORD 
WITHIN THE OPPOSITION PARTY.  END COMMENT). 
 
GEARING UP FOR A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) DESPITE THE CHALLENGES ELABORATED ABOVE, THE MDC 
IS PREPARING ENERGETICALLY FOR THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00930  03 OF 04  061551Z 
ELECTION.  ACCORDING TO MDC DIRECTOR FOR ELECTIONS PAUL 
NYATHI, THE PARTY HAS FORMED A "HUSH-HUSH" NATIONAL ELECTION 
DIRECTORATE IN HARARE THAT IS PLOTTING STRATEGY.  THE MDC 
HAS BEEN HOLDING WELL-ATTENDED RALLIES NATIONWIDE, WHERE IT 
IS ENCOURAGING PEOPLE TO HANG TOUGH IN THE FACE OF VIOLENCE 
AND INTIMIDATION, AND TO VOTE, AS THE PRIZE THIS TIME IS 
MUCH MORE VALUABLE THAN LAST JUNE'S.  IN A MARCH 1 MEETING 
WITH POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, MP FOR HARARE EAST TENDAI BITI 
WAS IN UNUSUALLY HIGH SPIRITS, NOTING THAT TURNOUT FOR HIS 
CONSTITUENCY MEETINGS AND THOSE OF MANY OF HIS PARTY 
COLLEAGUES HAD INCREASED DRAMATICALLY DURING THE PAST MONTH. 
ACCORDING TO NYATHI, THE MDC HOPES TO LAUNCH OFFICIALLY ITS 
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IN THE TOWNSHIP OF CHITUNGWIZA, WHERE 
SECURITY FORCES HAVE BEEN BEATING SUSPECTED OPPOSITION 
SUPPORTERS, "TO GIVE PEOPLE COURAGE." 
 
¶11.  (C) IN EARLY MARCH, MDC ACTIVISTS FROM RURAL AREAS WERE 
PLANNING TO GATHER IN HARARE TO STRATEGIZE ON HOW TO BOLSTER 
SUPPORT IN THE RURAL AREAS.  IN THE MEANTIME, THE PARTY IS 
DISSEMINATING ITS MESSAGE THROUGH RURAL CHURCHES AND 
RURAL-BASED MEMBERS OF THE ZCTU.  THE RECENT ELECTION OF A 
PRO-MDC SLATE TO THE ZCTU LEADERSHIP, NYATHI POINTED OUT, 
WAS CRUCIAL TO THE MDC'S ABILITY TO PENETRATE THE RURAL AREAS. 
IN LIGHT OF THE GOVERNMENT'S ONGOING CAMPAIGN OF INTIMIDATION 
AGAINST COMMERCIAL FARM OWNERS AND THEIR WORKERS, THE 
120,000-STRONG FARM WORKERS UNION REPRESENTS ESPECIALLY 
FERTILE GROUND FOR THE MDC.  THE OPPOSITION PARTY IS ALSO 
PAYING SUPPORTERS LIVING IN URBAN AREAS TO RETURN TO THEIR 
RURAL VILLAGES TO CAMPAIGN QUIETLY.  (COMMENT: WE DO NOT KNOW 
THE SOURCE OF THE MONEY WITH WHICH THIS IS OSTENSIBLY BEING 
DONE.  END COMMENT).  THIS IS POTENTIALLY AN EFFECTIVE APPROACH, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00930  03 OF 04  061551Z 
AS RURAL RESIDENTS WILL BE MUCH MORE WILLING TO LISTEN TO A 
FAMILIAR FACE, WHO IS LESS LIKELY TO ATTRACT THE ATTENTION -- 
AND WRATH -- OF ZANU-PF THUGS.  SO FAR, 52 WARDS HAVE BEEN 
"ASSIGNED" AN URBAN-DWELLING RESIDENT. (NOTE: EACH OF 
ZIMBABWE'S 120 ELECTORAL CONSTITUENCIES COMPRISES BETWEEN 
FIVE AND TWENTY WARDS. END NOTE.) 
 
¶12.  (C) ACCORDING TO NYATHI, THE MDC IS "ASSURED" OF WINNING 
THE PROVINCES OF MATABELELAND NORTH AND SOUTH, MANICALAND, 
AND MIDLANDS.  MASHONALAND EAST, WEST, AND CENTRAL WERE 
PROBLEMATIC, AS GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED INTIMIDATION THERE HAS 
BEEN SIGNIFICANT.  HOWEVER, NYATHI BELIEVED THERE IS ROOM FOR 
THE MDC TO INCREASE ITS SUPPORT IN THOSE TRADITIONAL 
STRONGHOLDS OF THE RULING PARTY, AS THE SEATS WON BY ZANU-PF 
IN JUNE WERE BY VERY HIGH MARGINS, WHILE TURNOUT WAS LOW IN 
THOSE CONSTITUENCIES WON BY THE MDC.  NYATHI SAID MASVINGO 
IS THE KEY BATTLEGROUND PROVINCE, CALLING IT "OUR FLORIDA." 
THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE HAS THE LARGEST POPULATION AND IS 
POLITICALLY ASTUTE.  IN ADDITION, THE RECENT EXPULSION OF 
LONG-TIME ZANU-PF STALWART AND MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON 
ZVOBGO FROM THE POLITBURO HAS ANGERED MANY OF HIS SUPPORTERS 
AND COULD LEAD THEM TO SHIFT THEIR ALLEGIANCE TO THE MDC. 
 
¶13.  (C) THERE WAS NOT CONSENSUS AMONG OUR MDC INTERLOCUTORS 
ABOUT WHETHER PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD CALL AN EARLY ELECTION, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5834 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00930  04 OF 04  061551Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
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      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    IRM-00 
      STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------CE44F0  061552Z /38 
R 061548Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8367 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 000930 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AA/AFR, VDICKSON-HORTON, AND AFR/SA, CPALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00930  04 OF 04  061551Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/06/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI MDC
SUBJECT:  MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE LEADERSHIP TAKES 
STOCK OF PARTY DEFICIENCIES AND CONCRETE STEPS TO 
ADDRESS THEM 
 
PRIOR TO JANUARY 1, 2002.   COLTART AND NYATHI WERE CONVINCED 
THAT THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION 
-- AGAINST THE JUDICIARY, THE INDEPENDENT MEDIA, THE MDC, AND 
ORDINARY CITIZENS IN HARARE'S HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS -- 
SUGGESTS AN EARLY ELECTION.  ON THE OTHER HAND, TSVANGIRAI'S 
ASSISTANT GANDI MUDZINGWA BELIEVES MUGABE WILL NOT STAND AGAIN, 
AS HE KNOWS HE CANNOT WIN, AND NEEDS TIME TO GROOM EITHER 
SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA OR FINANCE MINISTER 
SIMBA MAKONI AS HIS SUCCESSOR.  TRUDY STEVENSON DOUBTED THE 
POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY ELECTION, AS ZANU-PF WAS NOT 
WELL-ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PULL OFF A VICTORY IN SO SHORT A TIME. 
 
ELECTORAL CHALLENGES 
-------------------- 
 
¶14.  (C) THE MDC'S CHALLENGES OF THE RESULTS IN 37 ELECTORAL 
CONSTITUENCIES ARE PROCEEDING APACE IN THE HIGH COURT.  FOUR 
CASES HAVE NOW BEEN COMPLETED, BUT THE JUDGES HAVE NOT YET 
RENDERED THEIR DECISIONS.  IN FACT, MOST OBSERVERS EXPECT 
THEM TO RESERVE JUDGMENT UNTIL ALL 37 CASES HAVE BEEN HEARD, 
MEANING WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE A FINAL RESOLUTION FOR MANY 
MORE MONTHS.  COLTART SAID THE INITIAL CASES DID NOT GO 
PARTICULARLY WELL -- SOME OF THE MDC'S WITNESSES WERE TOO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00930  04 OF 04  061551Z 
AGGRESSIVE OR UNABLE TO EXPLAIN HOLES IN THEIR STORIES -- 
BUT THE CASES CURRENTLY BEING HEARD ARE EXPOSING SIGNIFICANT 
EVIDENCE OF INTIMIDATION AND ELECTORAL FRAUD.  EVEN IF THE 
JUDGES DO NOT ULTIMATELY SET ASIDE THE RESULTS IN ANY OF 
THE 37 CONSTITUENCIES, THE CASES AT LEAST WILL HAVE FOCUSED 
THE WORLD'S ATTENTION ON THE SERIOUS HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES 
THAT OCCURRED DURING THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15.  (C) THE MDC APPEARS TO BE REGAINING SOME OF THE 
POLITICAL MOMENTUM IT CEDED TO ZANU-PF IN THE MONTHS AFTER 
LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION IN SPITE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S INTIMID 
ATION 
CAMPAIGN -- OR PERHAPS BECAUSE OF IT.  THERE IS 
A SENSE OF EXCITEMENT AMONG ITS SENIOR OFFICIALS THAT WE HAVE 
NOT SEEN SINCE THE EUPHORIA OF THEIR ELECTORAL SHOWING LAST 
JUNE.  THE HIRING OF A NATIONAL COORDINATOR AND A PUBLIC 
RELATIONS PROFESSIONAL, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
RIGOROUS INTERNAL POLICY-VETTING SHOP, WILL HELP ADDRESS SOME 
OF THE PARTY'S STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES, ESPECIALLY THE ABSENCE 
OF CLEAR POLICY POSITIONS AND INEFFECTUAL INTERNAL AND 
EXTERNAL COMMUNICATION.  THE NATIONAL COORDINATOR LIKELY WILL 
BE ABLE TO USE HIS IMPRESSIVE MANAGEMENT AND INTERPERSONAL 
SKILLS TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE PARTY'S FACTIONAL TENSIONS. 
THE MDC IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF POLITICAL MATURITY AS 
WELL, BY REACHING OUT TO THE DIPLOMATIC HEADS OF MISSION 
(REF A) AND ADVOCATING THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S 
CONSTRUCTIVE ENGAGEMENT WITH THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT, AS OPPOSED 
TO IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS.  THE LACK OF RESOURCES, HOWEVER, 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00930  04 OF 04  061551Z 
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A REAL PROBLEM FOR THE PARTY, AND THERE 
IS NO EASY SOLUTION TO IT IN SIGHT.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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