This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

301234Z Mar 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6643

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8541
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 001178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
SECDEF FOR OSD/SA 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO 
POWER 
 
REFS: A) HARARE 975, B) HARARE 897, C) HARARE 871, 
 
      D) HARARE 779, E) HARARE 779 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE IS GEARING UP 
FOR WHAT WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT ELECTION OF HIS 
POLITICAL CAREER.  MUGABE WILL USE ALL THE RESOURCES OF 
HIS OFFICE, THE RULING PARTY, AND THE STATE TO WIN RE- 
ELECTION AND DENY THE OPPOSITION MDC THE PRESIDENCY. 
THE PRESIDENT WILL USE A WIDE RANGE OF TACTICS, FROM 
INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE AGAINST VOTERS, MANIPULATION 
OF ELECTORAL LAWS, VOTE-BUYING, AND BALLOT STUFFING, TO 
ACHIEVE HIS GOAL.  MUGABE STILL VALUES THE APPEARANCE OF 
WINNING A LEGITIMATE ELECTION, SO HE WILL MAKE EVERY 
EFFORT TO KEEP HIS TRANSGRESSIONS OUT OF PUBLIC VIEW. 
MUGABE WILL DECLARE MARTIAL LAW OR A STATE OF EMERGENCY 
ONLY AS A LAST RESORT TO FORESTALL A POPULAR UPRISING, 
WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY ONCE MUGABE IS DECLARED THE 
WINNER.  THE ROLE OF THE MILITARY WILL BE CRUCIAL, AND 
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL BACK MUGABE.  THERE 
APPEAR TO BE ONLY TWO CIRCUMSTANCES UNDER WHICH MUGABE 
WILL VOLUNTARILY LEAVE OFFICE: THERE IS A POPULAR 
UPRISING OR A MASSIVE NUMBER OF PROTESTERS DESCEND ON 
STATE HOUSE AND THE MILITARY DECIDES IT CANNOT PROTECT 
THE PRESIDENT AND ASKS HIM TO STEP DOWN, OR HIS HEALTH 
DECLINES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE YEAR AND HE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01178  01 OF 05  301230Z 
DECIDES TO ANOINT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA AS ZANU-PF'S 
CANDIDATE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MUGABE WILL DO ALL IT TAKES TO WIN 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) ALL INDICATIONS CURRENTLY POINT TO ANOTHER 
MUGABE CANDIDACY FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THAT MUST 
BE HELD BETWEEN JANUARY 1 AND MARCH 31, 2002.  IT IS OUR 
ASSESSMENT THAT MUGABE WILL HOLD AN ELECTION, NO MATTER 
HOW BAD THE ECONOMY GETS OR HOW UNPOPULAR HE BECOMES, 
BECAUSE HE STILL VALUES THE LEGITIMACY AN ELECTION 
CONVEYS, AND BECAUSE HE THINKS HE CAN WIN IT.  WE 
BELIEVE AN EARLY ELECTION, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE MUGABE TO 
RESIGN AND HOLD A NEW ELECTION WITHIN 90 DAYS, IS 
UNLIKELY BECAUSE IT WOULD BE PSYCHOLOGICALLY DIFFICULT 
FOR MUGABE TO RELINQUISH POWER, EVEN TEMPORARILY, AND IT 
WOULD DEMONSTRATE WEAKNESS, WHICH HE DESPISES.  IT IS 
OUR ASSESSMENT THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL USE ALL THE MEANS 
AT HIS DISPOSAL TO WIN AN ELECTION OUTRIGHT, AND THAT 
THE OPPOSITION DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO OVERCOME 
MUGABE'S ADVANTAGES AS INCUMBENT.  THIS MESSAGE EXAMINES 
MUGABE'S LIKELY BLUEPRINT FOR STAYING IN POWER THIS YEAR 
AND BEYOND NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
 
IF YOU DON'T WANT TO JOIN THEM, BEAT THEM 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) ALTHOUGH THE RULING ZANU-PF AND OPPOSITION MDC 
HAVE NOT DECLARED THEIR OFFICIAL CANDIDATES, THE 
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN IS ALREADY IN FULL SWING.  AT THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01178  01 OF 05  301230Z 
FOREFRONT OF PRESIDENT MUGABE'S STRATEGY IS THE 
SYSTEMATIC AND VIOLENT INTIMIDATION OF THE COUNTRY'S 
ELECTORATE, ESPECIALLY POOR, RURAL COMMUNAL FARMERS, THE 
TRADITIONAL BACKBONE OF ZANU-PF SUPPORT.  THE STRATEGY 
HAS WORKED MANY TIMES BEFORE FOR MUGABE.  ACCORDING TO 
MICHAEL QUINTANA, A DEFENSE CONSULTANT AND FREE-LANCE 
JOURNALIST TO WHOM POLOFF SPOKE ON MARCH 22, THE AVERAGE 
RURAL FARMER IS UNWILLING TO "STICK HIS NECK OUT FOR 
PRINCIPLES."  HE IS ALSO NOT POLITICALLY SOPHISTICATED 
AND WILL LARGELY DO WHAT HE IS TOLD BY HIS SUPERIORS, 
WHETHER IT IS THE LOCAL CHIEF OR THE PRESIDENT ON THE 
RADIO, QUINTANA ADDED.  WHEN RURAL SUPPORT FOR ZANU-PF 
SEEMED TO WAVER IN LAST YEAR'S REFERENDUM AND 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THE PRESIDENT DECIDED NOT TO 
TAKE ANY CHANCES AND RATCHETED UP THE INTIMIDATION AND 
PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN. 
 
¶4.  (C) WINNING THE RURAL VOTE IS NOT ENOUGH TO LOCK THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, HOWEVER.  THE URBAN VOTE WILL BE 
CRITICAL, AND BY SOME ACCOUNTS, ZIMBABWE IS NOW 40 
PERCENT URBAN, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF ECONOMIC 
MIGRATION TO THE CITIES OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS.  THE 
SUPPORT FOR THE OPPOSITION REMAINS ALMOST TOTAL IN THE 
URBAN AREAS.  RANDOM BEATINGS BY POLICE AND ARMY UNITS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTO3693 
 
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P 301234Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8542 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 001178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
SECDEF FOR OSD/SA 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01178  02 OF 05  301231Z 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO 
POWER 
 
HAVE BECOME ALMOST ROUTINE IN THE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS 
OF HARARE.  WAR VETERANS ARE INCREASINGLY ACTIVE IN THE 
CITIES AS WELL, RAIDING THE OFFICES OF COMPANIES SEEN TO 
BE HARMING THE INTERESTS OF THEIR WORKERS.  MUGABE IS 
ALSO ATTACKING THE "INSTRUMENTS OF OPPOSITION" BASED IN 
THE CITIES, SUCH AS THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, THE 
JUDICIARY, AND THE PRINCIPAL OPPOSITION PARTY ITSELF. 
ZANU-PF HAS ITS WORK CUT OUT FOR IT IN THE URBAN AREAS, 
WHERE IT IS DEEPLY UNPOPULAR, SO IT IS STARTING ITS 
CAMPAIGN EARLY. 
 
CARROTS WILL HELP, TOO 
---------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) THERE CONTINUE TO BE REPORTS THAT ZANU-PF 
POLITICOS ARE TOURING THE COUNTRY HANDING OUT MONEY IN 
POOR CONSTITUENCIES WHILE REMINDING VOTERS TO CAST THEIR 
BALLOT FOR THEIR PRESIDENT.  PARTY COMMISSAR AND YOUTH 
DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI HAS BEEN REPORTED ON 
SEVERAL OCCASIONS (INCLUDING TO US BY GOVERNMENT 
OFFICIALS - SEE REF C) TO HAVE HANDED OUT MILLIONS OF 
ZIMBABWE DOLLARS IN RURAL AREAS TO DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, 
AND IN SOME CASES, TO LOCAL OFFICIALS.  CRUCIAL TO THE 
CAMPAIGN IS KICKING THE PROPAGANDA MACHINE INTO HIGH 
GEAR.  THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN INCESSANT IN ITS MESSAGE 
THAT THE MDC IS INCAPABLE OF RULING ZIMBABWE AND THAT 
ONLY ZANU-PF HAS THE WHEREWITHAL TO MAKE THEIR LIVES 
BETTER. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01178  02 OF 05  301231Z 
 
VOTERS' ROLL IMPROVED, BUT THERE'S STILL ROOM FOR FRAUD 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶6.  (C) ZIMBABWE'S VOTERS' ROLL HAS BEEN GREATLY 
IMPROVED AND IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE 
GOVERNMENT TO MANIPULATE IT TO ZANU-PF'S ADVANTAGE, 
ACCORDING TO KNUD RASMUSSEN, DIRECTOR OF THE DANISH NGO 
THAT HAS WORKED WITH THE GOVERNMENT OVER THE LAST YEAR 
TO COMPUTERIZE AND REFORM THE VOTERS' ROLL.  THE VOTERS' 
ROLL HAS BEEN FOLDED INTO THE NATIONAL REGISTRY, WHICH 
CONTAINS BIRTH, MARRIAGE AND DEATH RECORDS AMONG OTHERS, 
SO THAT THERE ARE NO LONGER TWO, MUTUALLY INCONSISTENT 
NATIONAL DATABASES.  THE VOTERS' ROLL IS NOW PRINTED 
FROM THE NATIONAL REGISTRY, AN EXERCISE THAT TAKES TWO 
TO THREE WEEKS BECAUSE OF LIMITED PRINTING RESOURCES. 
NEARLY 3.2 MILLION RECORDS WERE ADDED OR UPDATED IN THE 
RUN-UP TO LAST YEAR'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. 
APPROXIMATELY 385,000 PEOPLE WERE LEFT OFF THE VOTERS' 
ROLL LAST YEAR BECAUSE OF DUPLICATIVE NATIONAL ID 
NUMBERS.  THAT NUMBER HAS SINCE BEEN REDUCED TO 86,000, 
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE RECTIFIED BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION, RASMUSSEN STATED.  IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT 
FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO MANIPULATE THE VOTERS' ROLL 
BECAUSE IT DOES NOT HAVE THE SOURCE CODE TO THE 
PROGRAMMING, AND IT DOES NOT HAVE THE TECHNICAL 
EXPERTISE TO ISOLATE INDIVIDUAL RECORDS BASED ON A 
PERSON'S AGE OR LOCATION.  NOR CAN IT REMOVE RECORDS 
VERY EASILY, RASMUSSEN ASSERTED. 
 
¶7.  (C) DESPITE HAVING A CLEANED-UP VOTERS' ROLL THAT IS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01178  02 OF 05  301231Z 
RESISTANT TO FRAUD, THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF WAYS THAT 
GOVERNMENT CAN MANIPULATE THE VOTING PROCESS TO 
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S ADVANTAGE, ACCORDING TO RASMUSSEN. 
AMONG THEM ARE: 
 
-- BECAUSE THE LAW SAYS ZIMBABWEAN CITIZENS MUST OBTAIN 
A NATIONAL ID NUMBER BY THE AGE OF 16 AND THAT THEY MUST 
HAVE AN ID NUMBER IN ORDER TO REGISTER TO VOTE, MANY 
FIRST-TIME VOTERS COULD BE TURNED AWAY WHEN THEY GO TO 
REGISTER.  MANY POOR, RURAL PARENTS NEVER REGISTER THEIR 
CHILDREN'S BIRTH BECAUSE OF THE EXPENSE OF DOING SO, SO 
MANY YOUNG POTENTIAL VOTERS--MOST LIKELY MDC SUPPORTERS- 
-COULD LEGALLY BE DENIED THE RIGHT TO VOTE. 
 
-- THE GOVERNMENT REFUSES TO PRINT THE VOTERS' ROLL BY 
NATIONAL ID NUMBER; INSTEAD, IT IS PRINTED 
ALPHABETICALLY.  MISSPELLINGS AND OTHER ERRORS OFTEN 
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR VOTING OFFICIALS TO VERIFY A 
VOTER'S REGISTRATION, WHICH PROVIDES ANOTHER PRETEXT FOR 
A VOTER MATCHING THE PROFILE OF AN OPPOSITION SUPPORTER 
TO BE TURNED AWAY. 
 
-- THE TRANSPORTATION OF BALLOT BOXES IS STILL THE POINT 
IN THE VOTING PROCESS MOST VULNERABLE TO FRAUD.  IF THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6650 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01178  03 OF 05  301231Z 
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P 301234Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8543 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 001178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
SECDEF FOR OSD/SA 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01178  03 OF 05  301231Z 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO 
POWER 
 
BOXES ARE NOT WATCHED EVERY STEP OF THE WAY TO THE 
COUNTING CENTER, IT IS EASY TO STUFF THE BALLOT BOX 
WITH, SAY, 300 BALLOTS AND CROSS OFF THE NAMES OF 300 
PEOPLE ON THE VOTERS' ROLL WHO DID NOT VOTE.  ALTHOUGH 
ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ASSIGN POLLING AGENTS TO MOST VOTING 
CENTERS, INSUFFICIENT RESOURCES PREVENT THE OPPOSITION 
PARTY FROM COVERING EVERY SINGLE POLLING PLACE. 
 
-- UNLIKE WITH PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, THE 
GOVERNMENT PLANS TO CONDUCT THE NEXT ELECTION ON A 
CONSTITUENCY BASIS, RATHER THAN ALLOWING VOTERS TO VOTE 
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY.  IF A VOTER HAS MOVED TO A 
DIFFERENT CONSTITUENCY FROM WHERE HE LAST VOTED (AND 
MANY HAVE), HE IS REQUIRED TO REREGISTER.  MANY RURAL 
VOTERS WILL NOT DO SO BECAUSE THEY CANNOT AFFORD THE 
HIGH COST OF BUSFARE TO THE REGISTRATION SITE, OR THEY 
DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE NECESSITY OF REREGISTERING.  MOST 
WILL NOT TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES TO VOTE IN THEIR OLD 
CONSTITUENCY, EITHER, ACCORDING TO RASMUSSEN.  THIS 
COULD ALSO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LARGE 
NUMBERS OF URBAN VOTERS REGISTERED IN RURAL AREAS WHO 
SUPPORT THE MDC.  HOLDING THE ELECTION ON A CONSTITUENCY 
BASIS WILL ALSO ALLOW PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORTERS TO TARGET 
ANTI-MUGABE CONSTITUENCIES FOR VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION, 
AND FRAUD. 
 
KEEP THE DIRTY BUSINESS OUT OF SIGHT 
------------------------------------ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01178  03 OF 05  301231Z 
 
¶8.  (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO KEEP 
HIS TRANSGRESSIONS OUT OF SIGHT--JUST AS HE DID DURING 
THE MATABELELAND REPRESSIONS OF THE MID-1980S--KNOWING 
THAT WIDELY PUBLICIZED FRAUD OR INTIMIDATION DURING THE 
ELECTION WILL TARNISH HIS LEGITIMACY.  TWO FOREIGN 
JOURNALISTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN EXPELLED THIS YEAR, AND 
NEW REGULATIONS UNDER CONSIDERATION WILL MAKE IT 
DIFFICULT FOR MANY FOREIGN JOURNALISTS TO REPORT OVERTLY 
ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FROM ZIMBABWE(REF B). 
MUGABE HAS TOLD THE LOCAL DIPLOMATIC CORPS THAT THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD NOT INTERFERE IN 
ZIMBABWE'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS AND SUGGESTED THAT ITS 
REPRESENTATIVES WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO OBSERVE THE 
UPCOMING ELECTION (REF D).  DESPITE THIS STATEMENT, THE 
PRESIDENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MONITORS FROM INTERNATIONAL 
ORGANIZATIONS LIKE SADC AND THE OAU TO MAINTAIN THE 
CHARADE OF TRANSPARENCY, BUT HE IS LIKELY TO RAISE EVERY 
KIND OF ADMINISTRATIVE OBSTACLE TO OTHER INTERNATIONAL 
(ESPECIALLY WESTERN) OBSERVERS SO AS TO LIMIT THEIR 
NUMBERS.  DOMESTIC MONITORS WILL FIND THEIR ACTIVITIES 
HAMPERED AS WELL, PARTICULARLY IN REMOTE AREAS, 
INCLUDING BY THE SETTING UP OF ROADBLOCKS AND 
DIFFICULTIES WITH ACCREDITATION.  BECAUSE THERE ARE 
NORMALLY 5,000 POLLING STATIONS IN ZIMBABWE'S NATIONAL 
ELECTIONS, LIMITING THE NUMBERS AND ACTIVITIES OF 
MONITORS WILL BE CRITICAL TO CARRYING OUT ELECTORAL 
FRAUD THAT COULD SKEW THE RESULTS IN MUGABE'S FAVOR. 
 
MUGABE COULD LEGALLY SCRAP THE RESULTS 
-------------------------------------- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01178  03 OF 05  301231Z 
 
¶9.  (C) IF IT APPEARS MUGABE'S VOTE TALLY WOULD FALL 
SLIGHTLY SHORT OF HIS OPPONENT'S (TSVANGIRAI WOULD NEED 
ONLY ONE MORE VOTE THAN MUGABE TO WIN OUTRIGHT IN THE 
STRAIGHT HEAD COUNT), THE PRESIDENT WOULD LIKELY 
POSTPONE ANNOUNCING THE RESULTS SO THAT HE WOULD HAVE 
TIME TO RIG THE OUTCOME.  IF IT APPEARED THAT THE MARGIN 
WAS TOO GREAT AND HE COULD NOT CREDIBLY POSTPONE THE 
ANNOUNCEMENT, HE WOULD LIKELY ANNUL THE ELECTION, CHARGE 
THE OPPOSITION WITH FRAUD, AND ANNOUNCE A NEW ELECTION 
IN A FEW WEEKS' TIME TO BEAT THE CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLINE 
OF MARCH 31.  (NOTE: MUGABE COULD CONCEIVABLY CALL A NEW 
ELECTION AFTER THIS DATE, BUT THIS COULD BE SUBJECT TO 
LEGAL CHALLENGES AND COULD UNDERMINE THE LEGITIMACY OF 
THE ELECTION.  END NOTE.)  MUGABE COULD USE THE LEGAL 
COVER OF THE BROAD POWERS GIVEN TO THE PRESIDENT IN THE 
ELECTORAL ACT TO DO THIS.  ACCORDING TO THE ACT, THE 
PRESIDENT CAN ISSUE STATUTORY INSTRUMENTS (DECREES) TO 
"SUSPEND OR AMEND ANY PROVISION OF THIS ACT OR ANY OTHER 
LAW IN SO FAR AS IT APPLIES TO ANY ELECTION" OR TO 
"VALIDATE ANYTHING DONE IN CONNECTION WITH, ARISING OUT 
OF OR RESULTING FROM ANY ELECTION IN CONTRAVENTION OF 
ANY PROVISION OF THIS ACT OR ANY OTHER LAW." 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6652 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01178  04 OF 05  301231Z 
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P 301234Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8544 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 001178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
SECDEF FOR OSD/SA 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01178  04 OF 05  301231Z 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO 
POWER 
 
¶10.  (C) AS A LAST RESORT, THE PRESIDENT COULD INVOKE A 
NUMBER OF EMERGENCY POWERS UNDER THE LAW IF IT APPEARED 
THE PUBLIC WOULD NOT ACCEPT HIS RE-ELECTION OR THE 
ANNULMENT OF THE RESULTS.  GIVEN MUGABE'S DEEP 
UNPOPULARITY IN THE CITIES AND THE PUBLIC'S EAGER 
ANTICIPATION OF A CHANGE IN LEADERSHIP, LARGE-SCALE 
URBAN DEMONSTRATIONS WOULD BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY. 
(NOTE: THIS SCENARIO COULD ALSO ARISE IF MDC PRESIDENT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS FOUND GUILTY OF INCITING VIOLENCE 
AND BARRED FROM RUNNING FOR THE PRESIDENCY.  SEE REF E. 
THE HIGH COURT IS SCHEDULED TO HEAR HIS CASE ON APRIL 
¶30.  END NOTE.)  UNDER THE PRESIDENTIAL POWERS 
(TEMPORARY MEASURES) ACT, THE PRESIDENT CAN "MAKE URGENT 
REGULATIONS" IF "A SITUATION HAS ARISEN OR IS LIKELY TO 
ARISE" THAT THREATENS PUBLIC SAFETY OR ORDER, OR CANNOT 
"AWAIT THE PASSAGE THROUGH PARLIAMENT OF AN ACT DEALING 
WITH THE SITUATION."  THESE REGULATIONS WOULD BE VALID 
FOR SIX MONTHS, AND COULD BE USED TO IMPLEMENT A MASSIVE 
CRACKDOWN ON DEMONSTRATORS AND OPPOSITION ACTIVITIES. 
 
¶11.  (C) IF THE SITUATION PROVED MORE THREATENING, THE 
PRESIDENT COULD, UNDER THE CONSTITUTION, DECLARE A STATE 
OF EMERGENCY, WHICH IS VALID FOR 14 DAYS.  IF PARLIAMENT 
RATIFIES IT IN THAT TIMEFRAME, IT WOULD BECOME VALID FOR 
SIX MONTHS.  THE EMERGENCY POWERS ACT SPECIFIES THAT 
UNDER A STATE OF EMERGENCY, THE PRESIDENT CAN ISSUE 
REGULATIONS THAT PROVIDE FOR THE SUMMARY ARREST AND 
DETENTION OF PERSONS THREATENING PUBLIC SAFETY, THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01178  04 OF 05  301231Z 
DEPORTATION OF ANY NON-CITIZEN, THE SEIZING OF ANY 
PROPERTY, AND THE SEARCHING OF ANY PREMISES.  UNDER THE 
MOST EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES, IN WHICH HIS CONTINUED RULE 
IS THREATENED BY UNRULY MOBS, MUGABE COULD DECLARE 
MARTIAL LAW, A BROAD POWER GIVEN HIM BY THE CONSTITUTION 
THAT WOULD NOT REQUIRE PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL OR BE 
SUBJECT TO TIME LIMITS. 
 
MILITARY SUPPORT WILL BE KEY 
---------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (C) SHOULD THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD DEGENERATE INTO 
WIDESPREAD UNREST, THE MILITARY'S SUPPORT OF MUGABE WILL 
BE KEY TO HIS CONTINUED RULE.  ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT 
ZIMBABWE'S MILITARY WILL BACK PRESIDENT MUGABE'S RE- 
ELECTION, EVEN IF IT APPEARS ILLEGITIMATE.  ACCORDING TO 
QUINTANA, THE DEFENSE CONSULTANT, THE ARMY AND AIR FORCE 
ARE "COMPLETELY IN BED WITH MUGABE AND COMPANY."  AS 
RECENTLY AS EARLY LAST YEAR, THE MILITARY WAS LARGELY 
AMBIVALENT ABOUT MUGABE'S ELECTION TACTICS, AND SOME 
LOWER-LEVEL OFFICERS VOICED DISMAY THAT THEY WERE ASKED 
TO DELIVER THE VOTE FOR ZANU-PF.  NOW, ALL THAT HAS 
CHANGED, QUINTANA REMARKED.  MUGABE HAS BOUGHT THE 
LOYALTY OF NEARLY ALL OFFICERS BY LETTING THEM PICK OUT 
CHOICE PARCELS OF LAND--ORIGINALLY DESIGNATED FOR 
RESETTLEMENT--FOR THEIR OWN USE.  THE LEVEL OF 
CORRUPTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY, AND NEARLY "EVERYONE 
IS OPENLY CORRUPT."  "A COUP D'ETAT IS SIMPLY NOT 
POSSIBLE," THE CONSULTANT OPINED. 
 
¶13.  (C) PRESIDENT MUGABE RELIES ON HIS SPECIAL FORCES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01178  04 OF 05  301231Z 
MORE THAN EVER, ACCORDING TO QUINTANA.  UNITS LIKE THE 
PARACHUTE BATTALION AND PRESIDENTIAL GUARD ARE MORE 
FREQUENTLY CALLED UPON TO CARRY OUT SPECIAL TASKS, SUCH 
AS THE BEATING OF CHITUNGWIZA RESIDENTS.  BECAUSE OF 
THEIR GREATER DISCIPLINE AND LOYALTY, THEY WOULD ALSO BE 
CALLED UPON TO PROTECT THE PRESIDENT SHOULD CROWDS 
DESCEND ON STATE HOUSE, QUINTANA STATED.  THEY LEARNED 
AT COURSES IN CHINA THAT "IF YOU KILL ONE PERSON, YOU 
WILL FRIGHTEN A THOUSAND;" THE SPECIAL UNITS WOULD NOT 
HESITATE TO FIRE ON THREATENING DEMONSTRATORS TO KEEP 
MUGABE IN POWER, QUINTANA OPINED.  THE MILITARY WOULD BE 
EVEN MORE LIKELY TO FIRE ON CROWDS IF THERE ARE NO 
INTERNATIONAL NEWS CREWS TO RECORD THE EVENT. 
 
MUGABE WILL GO ONLY UNDER SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶14.  (C) THERE IS ONLY ONE CASE IN WHICH THE MILITARY 
WOULD TURN ON MUGABE, QUINTANA OFFERED, AND THAT WOULD 
BE IF THE BULLETS RAN OUT BEFORE THE PEOPLE DID.  IF A 
CROWD OF 100,000 DESCENDED ON STATE HOUSE, FOR INSTANCE, 
AND THEY DID NOT DISPERSE AFTER A LARGE NUMBER WERE 
KILLED, IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP 
WOULD GO TO MUGABE AND TELL HIM THAT THEY COULD NO 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6654 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01178  05 OF 05  301231Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    IRM-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /008W 
                  ------------------D95222  301232Z /38 
P 301234Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8545 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 001178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
SECDEF FOR OSD/SA 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/11 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS MCAP ZI ZANU PF
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01178  05 OF 05  301231Z 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW PRESIDENT MUGABE WILL HANG ON TO 
POWER 
 
LONGER PROTECT HIM, AND ASK HIM TO RESIGN.  IN THAT 
CASE, MUGABE PROBABLY WOULD STEP DOWN, QUINTANA 
BELIEVES.  THIS IS A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO, HOWEVER, 
BECAUSE THE NUMBER OF PROTESTERS REQUIRED WOULD BE FAR 
MORE THAN ZIMBABWE HAS EVER SEEN, THE CONSULTANT 
AVERRED. 
 
¶15.  (C) BY OUR RECKONING, THERE IS ONE OTHER 
CIRCUMSTANCE UNDER WHICH MUGABE MIGHT VOLUNTARILY LEAVE 
OFFICE.  IF HIS HEALTH DECLINES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END 
OF THE YEAR, HE MAY DECIDE TO ANOINT A SUCCESSOR-- 
PROBABLY EMMERSON MNANGAGWA--TO RUN AS ZANU-PF'S 
CANDIDATE (REF A).  (NOTE: THERE HAVE LONG BEEN RUMORS 
OF MUGABE'S DECLINING HEALTH, WHICH HAVE BEEN RIDICULED 
BY GOVERNMENT SPOKESMEN BUT NOT FLATLY DENIED.  RECENT, 
PERSISTENT REPORTS OF MUGABE FREQUENTLY FALLING DOWN 
LEND CREDENCE TO THE NOTION THAT HE HAS A SERIOUS HEALTH 
CONDITION.  END NOTE.)  HE MAY ALSO DECIDE TO STEP DOWN 
SHORTLY AFTER WINNING RE-ELECTION AND ALLOW A VICE- 
PRESIDENT TO SUCCEED HIM, CONFIDENT IN THE KNOWLEDGE 
THAT HIS PHYSICAL AND FINANCIAL SECURITY WOULD BE 
PROTECTED. 
 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
¶16.  (C) BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS, IT IS OUR 
ASSESSMENT THAT MUGABE WILL WIN RE-ELECTION AND WILL 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  01178  05 OF 05  301231Z 
INVOKE A HOST OF LEGAL MEASURES, BACKED BY THE MILITARY, 
TO OVERCOME ANY POPULAR BACKLASH.  MUGABE STILL VALUES 
THE STAMP OF LEGITIMACY THAT AN ELECTION CONVEYS TO THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AND WILL DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE 
TO ENSURE THAT THE ELECTORATE MAKES THE "CORRECT" 
CHOICE.  THE PRESIDENT WILL USE EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES, 
SUCH AS A STATE OF EMERGENCY OR MARTIAL LAW, AS A LAST 
RESORT.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE OPPOSITION OR CIVIL 
SOCIETY HAS THE WHEREWITHAL OR ORGANIZATIONAL ABILITY AT 
THIS TIME TO OVERCOME PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CONSIDERABLE 
ADVANTAGES AS INCUMBENT, DESPITE HIS LACK OF POPULARITY. 
MUGABE'S RELENTLESS ELECTIONEERING MAY EVEN TURN AROUND 
HIS SAGGING POPULARITY IN TRADTIONAL ZANU-PF AREAS. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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