This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

161100Z Feb 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3025

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8240
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11 
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00765  01 OF 03  161059Z 
OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM 
 
REFS: A. HARARE 644, B. 00 HARARE 7271, 
      ¶C. 00 HARARE 6662, D. 00 HARARE 6190 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B/D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) 
ANNOUNCED ON JANUARY 15 THE START OF PHASE II OF THE 
"FAST-TRACK" LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT 
RESETTLING A SEGMENT OF THE POPULATION AS COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS.  WHILE THIS PROGRAM APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A 
PREVIOUS MODEL DEVELOPED IN CONSULTATION WITH DONORS, 
MODEL A2, THE GOZ HAS NOT STATED THIS PUBLICLY AND FEW 
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THE NEW PHASE II PROGRAM HAVE BEEN 
MADE PUBLIC.  MEANWHILE, PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK" 
LAND RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, AIMED AT RELOCATING PEASANTS 
FROM THE RURAL COMMUNAL LANDS ONTO COMMERCIAL FARMS, HAS 
BEEN ANYTHING BUT SUCCESSFUL.  VIOLENT ASSAULTS BY "WAR 
VETS" CONTINUE AGAINST FARMERS AND FARM WORKERS ON 
ZIMBABWE'S OCCUPIED FARMS ON A WEEKLY BASIS.  THE GOZ 
HAS STEPPED UP ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY OVER ITS RULINGS 
AGAINST THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM AND FARM OCCUPATIONS. 
MANY COMMERCIAL FARMERS WE HAVE TALKED TO BELIEVE THAT 
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DESTROY COMMERCIAL 
FARMING, BUT TO INTIMIDATE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS SO 
THAT THOSE WHO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE WILL NEVER AGAIN 
BECOME INVOLVED IN POLITICS.  AS A RESULT OF THE FARM 
OCCUPATIONS, THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM'S SHORTFALLS, THE 
ECONOMIC CRISIS, AND POOR RAINFALL IN SOME REGIONS OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00765  01 OF 03  161059Z 
ZIMBABWE, THE GOZ WILL NEED TO IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES 
OF WHEAT, AND POSSIBLY MAIZE, BY THE END OF 2001, AT A 
TIME WHEN IT WILL HAVE LITTLE HARD CURRENCY TO PAY FOR 
THEM.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
PHASE 2 - "IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED..." 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) ON JANUARY 15 THE GOZ ANNOUNCED THROUGH A FULL- 
PAGE AD IN THE GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE HERALD" THE BEGINNING 
OF PHASE II OF "FAST-TRACK," WITH A STATED GOAL OF 
DEVELOPING A NEW GENERATION OF INDIGENOUS SMALL-, 
MEDIUM-, AND LARGE-SCALE COMMERCIAL FARMERS.  PHASE II 
APPEARS TO BE BASED ON A PLAN TO DEVELOP INDIGENOUS 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHICH WAS DEVELOPED BY THE GOZ IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH DONORS IN 1998 AND CALLED MODEL A2. 
UNDER PHASE II, THE FARM SIZES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE 
TYPE OF FARMING TO BE PURSUED, AND THE AREA'S RAINFALL 
CLASSIFICATION.  PHASE II IS AIMED AT ZIMBABWEANS WHO 
HAVE A PROCLIVITY FOR COMMERCIAL FARMING AND HAVE ASSETS 
THAT THEY CAN DEVOTE TO THIS ENDEAVOR.  THE GOAL OF 
PHASE I WAS TO GIVE SMALL PLOTS OF LAND TO CURRENT 
COMMUNAL LAND SUBSISTENCE FARMERS.  THE GOZ HAS ALREADY 
DECLARED PHASE II TO BE A ROARING SUCCESS BASED ON THE 
THOUSANDS OF ZIMBABWEANS WHO HAVE BESIEGED THE MINISTRY 
OF LAND FOR THEIR FREE APPLICATIONS.  YET, TO OUR 
KNOWLEDGE, THE GOZ HAS NOT MADE PUBLIC ANY DETAILS AS TO 
THE SPECIFIC CRITERIA THAT WILL BE USED TO AWARD LAND TO 
BENEFICIARIES UNDER PHASE II, OR ANY OTHER SPECIFICS ON 
HOW PHASE II WILL BE IMPLEMENTED.  IN ADDITION, THE GOZ 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00765  01 OF 03  161059Z 
HAS FEW RESOURCES TO HANDLE EVEN THE MOST RUDIMENTARY 
ADMINISTRATIVE DETAILS OF PHASE II, LET ALONE TO PROVIDE 
OTHER SUPPORT, INCLUDING SUBSIDIZED FINANCING, THAT THE 
FUTURE INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL NEED UNDER THE 
PROGRAM. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
PHASE I OF "FAST-TRACK" A RESOUNDING FAILURE 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) PHASE I OF THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, 
WHICH HAS PRINCIPALLY ENTAILED THE ILLEGAL OCCUPATION OF 
COMMERCIAL FARMS BY "WAR VETS" AND RURAL PEASANTS, IS, 
BY MOST ACCOUNTS A FAILURE.  THE GOZ MINISTER OF LANDS, 
AGRICULTURE AND RURAL RESETTLEMENT, JOSEPH MADE, HAS 
PUBLICLY STATED THAT 2597 FARMS TOTALING 5.9 MILLION 
HECTARES HAVE BEEN GAZETTED FOR COMPULSORY ACQUISITION. 
MOREOVER, HE HAS CLAIMED THAT 86,000 FAMILIES HAVE 
ALREADY BEEN RESETTLED ON THREE MILLION HECTARES OF 
COMMERCIAL FARMLAND.  THESE ARE WIDELY BELIEVED TO BE 
EXTREMELY INFLATED FIGURES.  THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC 
CHANGE (MDC) OPPOSITION STATES THAT AT MOST 5,000 
FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED TO DATE.  MINISTER MADE HAS 
ADMITTED THAT THE GOZ HAS ONLY PROVIDED TILLAGE SERVICE 
ON 4,666 HECTARES OF LAND ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST-TRACK". 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3028 
 
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                  ------------------C69483  161100Z /38 
R 161100Z FEB 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8241 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11 
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00765  02 OF 03  161100Z 
OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM 
 
THE GOZ MINISTER OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, 
SIMBA MAKONI, TOLD AN EMBASSY FSN INFORMALLY THAT ONLY 
2,000 HECTARES OUT OF 200,000 ACQUIRED UNDER "FAST- 
TRACK" HAVE BEEN UTILIZED THIS AGRICULTURAL SEASON. 
MINISTER OF RURAL RESOURCES AND WATER DEVELOPMENT, JOYCE 
MUJURU, STATED IN THE JANUARY 20 GOZ-CONTROLLED "THE 
HERALD" NEWSPAPER THAT THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM HAS 
SUFFERED FROM A POOR TURNOUT OF BENEFICIARIES.  THE CFU 
AND INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE TOLD US THAT MANY 
OF THE PEOPLE "RESETTLED" UNDER PHASE I HAVE LEFT THE 
COMMERCIAL FARMS AND GONE BACK TO THE COMMUNAL LANDS 
AFTER IT BECAME CLEAR THAT THEY WERE GETTING NO 
ASSISTANCE FROM THE GOZ.  THE MINISTER OF LOCAL 
GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING, IGNATIUS 
CHOMBO, HAS CONFIRMED THIS FACT BY STATING THAT MANY OF 
THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN "RESETTLED" HAVE RENEGED ON 
THEIR COMMITMENT TO TAKE OWNERSHIP OF THE LAND THEY HAVE 
BEEN GIVEN AND HAVE GONE BACK TO THEIR HOMES.  THE 
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE GENERAL AGRICULTURE AND 
 
SIPDIS 
PLANTATION WORKERS UNION OF ZIMBABWE (GAPWUZ), PHILIP 
MUNYANYI, CLAIMS THAT ONLY 318 FORMER FARM WORKERS' 
FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED UNDER PHASE I, OUT OF A 
FARM LABOR FORCE OF 500,000. 
 
------------------------------- 
VIOLENCE CONTINUES ON THE FARMS 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) AS OF THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, THE COMMERCIAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00765  02 OF 03  161100Z 
FARMERS UNION (CFU) ESTIMATES THAT APPROXIMATELY 1100 
COMMERCIAL FARMS REMAIN OCCUPIED.  THE LEVEL OF 
OCCUPATION VARIES, WITH SOME FARMS HAVING ONLY A HANDFUL 
OF "WAR VETS", WHILE OTHERS HOST A HUNDRED OR MORE 
SQUATTERS.  EACH WEEK THERE ARE NEW REPORTS OF 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS BEING THREATENED OR ASSAULTED, AND OF 
THEIR FARM WORKERS BEING BEATEN AND EVICTED FROM THEIR 
HOUSING.  A NEW TACTIC BEING USED BY "WAR VETS" TO 
HARASS FARMERS AND EXTRACT A CASH FLOW IS TO DRIVE A 
FARMER'S CATTLE INTO AN AREA WHERE SQUATTERS HAVE 
PLANTED MAIZE, AND THEN DEMAND EXORBITANT MONETARY 
COMPENSATION FOR THE DAMAGE DONE TO THE MAIZE BY THE 
CATTLE.  THE CFU REPORTS THAT POLICE GENERALLY RESPOND 
TO THE MORE SERIOUS CONFRONTATIONS AND VIOLENCE, BUT DO 
NOTHING TO ARREST THE PERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE OR PURSUE 
CRIMES SUCH AS THE THEFT OF FARM PROPERTY.  THERE HAS 
BEEN NO PROGRESS BY THE POLICE IN INVESTIGATIONS OF THE 
KILLINGS OF SIX WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND FIVE FARM 
WORKERS SINCE LAST FEBRUARY. 
 
---------------------------------- 
BLAME THE FAILURE ON THE JUDICIARY 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) MEANWHILE, THE GOZ LABELS THE JUDICIARY AS THE 
VILLAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR DELAYING THE SUCCESS OF "FAST- 
TRACK."  IT CONTINUES TO IGNORE THE DECEMBER SUPREME 
COURT RULING DECLARING THE CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" EXERCISE 
UNCONSTITUTIONAL, AS WELL AS ALL OTHER COURT RULINGS 
AGAINST "FAST-TRACK."  FURTHERMORE, THE GOZ IS STILL 
IGNORING COURT ORDERS FOR THE POLICE TO REMOVE ILLEGAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00765  02 OF 03  161100Z 
OCCUPIERS AND RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW ON COMMERCIAL 
FARMS.  THOUGH THE GOZ FORCED THE HEAD SUPREME COURT 
JUSTICE TO RESIGN LAST WEEK (REF A), PROBLEMS EXIST AT 
ALL LEVELS OF THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM.  LAST WEEK THE 
ADMINISTRATIVE COURT DISMISSED THE GOZ'S REQUEST FOR 
CONFIRMATION ORDERS ON THE ACQUISITION OF TWO COMMERCIAL 
FARMS UNTIL THE GOZ PRODUCES A WORKABLE LAND REFORM 
PROGRAM.  THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT AS OF THE BEGINNING 
FEBRUARY, NO FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED FOR 
COMPULSORY ACQUISITION BY THE GOZ SINCE "FAST-TRACK" 
BEGAN IN JUNE 2000 HAVE YET BEEN LEGALLY ACQUIRED BY THE 
GOZ.  THE CFU ALSO TOLD US THAT THE GOZ IS NOT MEETING 
DEADLINES FOR THE DELIVERY OF THE VARIOUS LEGAL NOTICES 
REQUIRED IN THE COMPULSORY ACQUISITION PROCESS UNDER THE 
LAND ACQUISITION ACT. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
WHAT IS THE GOAL OF THIS WHOLE EXERCISE? 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) IN ADDITION TO THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT 
PROGRAM BEING VIEWED BY THE OPPOSITION MDC AS A 
POLITICAL TACTIC BY MUGABE TO RESTORE HIS FLAGGING 
POPULARITY AMONG THE POOR AND LANDLESS BLACK MAJORITY, 
IT IS ALSO VIEWED BY THE CFU AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS AS A 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3034 
 
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                  ------------------C69495  161100Z /38 
R 161100Z FEB 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8242 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL 02/16/11 
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: THE CURRENT STATE AND PROJECTED CONSEQUENCES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00765  03 OF 03  161100Z 
OF THE "FAST-TRACK" PROGRAM 
 
WAY TO PUNISH THEM FOR THEIR PERCEIVED SUPPORT FOR THE 
OPPOSITION.  A VIEW HELD BY SOME MEMBERS OF THE CFU 
EXECUTIVE BODY, AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL COMMERCIAL FARMERS 
WE HAVE TALKED TO, IS THAT MUGABE'S GOAL IS NOT TO DRIVE 
ALL WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS FROM ZIMBABWE.  RATHER, IT 
IS TO DRIVE AN UNDETERMINED NUMBER OF WHITE COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS OUT OF ZIMBABWE, AND THEREBY OBTAIN THEIR LAND 
FOR RESETTLEMENT WITHOUT PAYING ANY COMPENSATION FOR THE 
LAND.  AT THE SAME TIME, MUGABE WANTS A CORE GROUP OF 
WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMERS, WHOSE OPERATIONS WILL BRING IN 
DESPERATELY NEEDED HARD CURRENCY, TO REMAIN IN ZIMBABWE. 
THE THINKING GOES THAT THIS REMAINING GROUP OF WHITE 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS WILL HAVE BEEN SO TRAUMATIZED BY THE 
CURRENT "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE, THAT THEY 
WILL NEVER AGAIN SUPPORT AN OPPOSITION PARTY. 
 
-------------------------------- 
A CONSEQUENCE IS FOOD INSECURITY 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) THE OCCUPATIONS, THE ECONOMY, AND THE LACK OF 
RAINFALL IN SOME AGRICULTURAL AREAS THIS SEASON HAVE ALL 
CONTRIBUTED TO A SCENARIO WHERE THE GOZ MAY WELL HAVE TO 
IMPORT LARGE QUANTITIES OF GRAIN AS EARLY AS AUGUST.  AS 
A RESULT OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES 
RELATED TO "FAST-TRACK", THE GOZ AGRITEX EARLY WARNING 
UNIT REPORTED THAT THE TOTAL AREA UNDER CROPS IS DOWN BY 
22 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR, INCLUDING A 22 PERCENT DROP 
IN THE AREA PLANTED IN MAIZE.  THE CFU HAS TOLD US THAT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00765  03 OF 03  161100Z 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS HAVE PLANTED 48 PERCENT LESS MAIZE 
(REFS B, C, AND D), AND THAT THE HECTARAGE PLANTED IN 
WINTER WHEAT WILL ALSO BE REDUCED DRAMATICALLY BECAUSE 
OF THE FARM OCCUPATIONS.  A RECENT ANALYSIS BY THE 
COMMERCIAL BANK OF ZIMBABWE ESTIMATES THAT THE GOZ WILL 
NEED TO IMPORT BETWEEN 70,000 AND 130,000 METRIC TONS OF 
WHEAT BY JULY.  AGRITEX HAS ALSO REPORTED THAT RAINFALL 
HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH 
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF 
THE COUNTRY IN NEAR DROUGHT CONDITION.  BOTH AGRITEX AND 
THE USAID FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE HAVE REPORTED THAT COMMUNAL 
FARMERS IN CERTAIN SOUTHERN DISTRICTS HAVE WRITTEN OFF 
THEIR MAIZE CROPS THIS SEASON DUE TO THE LACK OF 
RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION, DUE TO PRICE HIKES, COMMUNAL 
FARMERS NATIONWIDE ARE HARD PRESSED TO AFFORD THE MID- 
SEASON FERTILIZER THEIR CROPS NEED.  THE JANUARY USAID 
FEWS/NET ZIMBABWE MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE ESTIMATES 
THAT IF ZIMBABWE FAILS TO RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL IN 
ITS BREADBASKET REGION DURING THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY, 
A MAIZE PRODUCTION DEFICIT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD 
REQUIRE THE GOZ TO IMPORT BETWEEN 200,000 AND 400,000 
METRIC TONS OF MAIZE BY THE END OF 2001. 
 
¶8. (C) COMMENT: IT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT AN 
AGRICULTURAL DISASTER IS LOOMING IN ZIMBABWE.  WHILE 
MUGABE MAY STILL REAP POLITICAL BENEFITS FROM THE "FAST- 
TRACK" RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE AMONG POOR AND LANDLESS 
ZIMBABWEANS, AND WITH PHASE II, CUT INTO THE MDC'S CORE 
URBAN SUPPORT, IT IS CLEAR THAT FROM AN ECONOMIC 
PERSPECTIVE THE "FAST-TRACK" RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM HAS 
SUCCEEDED ONLY AT DISRUPTING PRODUCTION ON THE COUNTRY'S 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00765  03 OF 03  161100Z 
COMMERCIAL FARMS, WHILE PROVIDING NO VIABLE SOLUTION TO 
THE NEEDS OF LANDLESS PEOPLE AND THOSE LIVING ON 
MARGINAL LAND IN THE COMMUNAL AREAS.  BASED ON THE TRACK 
RECORD OF PHASE I, WE DOUBT THAT PHASE II WILL BE ANY 
MORE SUCCESSFUL AT ITS GOAL OF DEVELOPING "INSTANT" 
INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS.  HAVING DRIVEN AWAY 
NEARLY ALL FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND MOST FOREIGN TOURISTS, 
THE GOZ DOES NOT AND PROBABLY WILL NOT HAVE THE HARD 
CURRENCY NEEDED TO PAY FOR GRAIN IMPORTS LATER THIS 
YEAR.  THE PROJECTED HARD CURRENCY EARNINGS FROM THE 
SALE OF THE NATION'S TOBACCO CROP BEGINNING IN APRIL 
HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPENT OR ALLOCATED BY THE GOZ, LEAVING 
LITTLE FOR GRAIN IMPORTS.  EVEN IF THERE IS AN IMMEDIATE 
ABOUT-FACE ON THE GOZ'S LAND AND ECONOMIC POLICIES, A 
DEVELOPMENT WE DO NOT FORESEE, THE GOZ WILL VERY LIKELY 
NEED EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO FEED ITS PEOPLE BY THE END 
OF 2001.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>