This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

160929Z Feb 01


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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8236
INFO NSC WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X5 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS ZI MDC ZANU PF
SUBJECT: BRITISH REPORT ON ZANU-PF OVERTURES TO THE MDC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00760  01 OF 02  160929Z 
 
REF:  HARARE 754 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR REASONS 1.5 B/D. 
 
¶1.  (C) ON FEBRUARY 16 THE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION HERE SHARED WITH 
US THE TEXT OF THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE SENT TO LONDON FEBRUARY 15 
REPORTING ON MORGAN TSVANGIRAI'S OBSERVATIONS WITH RESPECT TO ZANU-PF 
OVERTURES TO HIS PARTY. 
 
¶2.  (C) BEGIN TEXT: 
 
SUBJECT:  ZANU-PF OVERTURES TO TSVANGIRAI 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. TSVANGIRAI OPENING DIALOGUE WITH GOVERNMENT; BUT NOT TALKING 
ABOUT GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY.  EARLY DAYS; NOT YET 
DISCUSSED WITH MDC EXECUTIVE.  SAYS HE IS AWARE OF THE DANGERS 
BUT HAS TO RESPOND TO OVERTURES FROM GOZ IN THE INTERESTS OF 
THE NATION. 
 
DETAIL 
 
¶2. ON 15 FEBRUARY SECOND SECRETARY LINDSAY CALLED ON MDC PRESIDENT TSVA 
NGIRAI 
TO DISCUSS INFORMATION WE HAD RECEIVED ABOUT OVERTURES 
MADE BY ZANU-PF TO THE MDC.  TSVANGIRAI SAID THAT THE COUNTRY WAS 
IN A DEEP CRISIS; ZANU-PF COULD NOT SURVIVE WITHOUT REPRESSION AND 
THE MDC COULD NOT WIN BY CONFRONTING THAT REPRESSION.  IT WAS IN THE NA 
TIONAL 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00760  01 OF 02  160929Z 
INTEREST THAT THEY EMBARK UPON DIALOGUE; BUT THE ONUS WAS 
ON ZANU-PF.  HE ADDED THAT ZANU-PF WAS ON ITS KNEES ECONOMICALLY, 
ALTHOUGH IT WAS STILL STRONG POLITICALLY. 
 
¶3. TSVANGIRAI REITERATED HIS CONVICTION THAT HE WOULD WIN A 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2002, BUT NOTED THAT WINNING THE ELECTION 
WOULD BE VERY DIFFERENT FROM WINNING POWER.  WE SHOULD NOT DISMISS 
MUGABE'S RHETORIC WHEN HE SAYS THAT HE WOULD NEVER ALLOW TSVANGIRAI 
TO BECOME PRESIDENT.  THE MDC ALREADY HAD GOOD CONTACTS WITHIN THE 
SECURITY FORCES BUT MUGABE HAS CREATED ALTERNATIVE MILITIAS WHICH 
COULD VERY QUICKLY CREATE CHAOS.  TSVANGIRAI SAID THAT MASS ACTION 
WOULD ONLY BE LEGITIMATE IF HE WON THE ELECTION AND WAS NOT ALLOWED 
TO ASSUME POWER.  EVEN IF HE WAS ALLOWED TO TAKE POWER TSVANGIRAI 
WONDERED WHAT WOULD BE LEFT OF THE COUNTRY IN FIFTEEN MONTHS TIME. 
HE AGREED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WOULD BE WILLING TO HELP 
A GOVERNMENT COMMITTED TO SENSIBLE PROGRAMMES OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY 
AND REFORM BUT IT WOULD NOT HAPPEN ON THE FIRST DAY AND HE WOULD 
NEED BREATHING SPACE. 
 
¶4. FOR THESE REASONS TSVANGIRAI SAID IT WAS SENSIBLE TO HAVE 
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE GOVERNMENT.  BUT THESE WERE AT AN EMBRYONIC 
STAGE; THERE HAD BEEN A SERIES OF OVERTURES FROM ZANU-PF BUT NOTHING 
CONCRETE.  TSVANGIRAI MADE IT CLEAR THAT THE MDC WERE NOT INITIATING AN 
YTHING, AND THEY WERE NOT NEGOTIATING.  THEY HAD ALREADY SPECIFIED 
THAT IF THEY WERE TO ENTER DISCUSSIONS IT WOULD BE AS AN INDEPENDENT 
PARTY - EVERYONE KNEW HOW ZAPU HAD BEEN SWALLOWED UP BY ZANU-PF. 
 
¶5. LINDSAY ASKED HOW WIDELY THIS HAD BEEN DISCUSSED WITHIN THE MDC. 
TSVANGIRAI SAID THAT THE ONLY WAY TO PROCEED WAS THROUGH OPEN DEBATE 
 
SIPDIS 
IN THE EXECUTIVE, BUT THIS HAD NOT YET BEGUN.  NOBODY WOULD BE FORCED 
DOWN THIS ROUTE AND HE EXPECTED SOME VERY STRONG OPPOSITION FROM 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00760  01 OF 02  160929Z 
WITHIN HIS PARTY - BUT HE WELCOMED SOME HEALTHY DEBATE.  LINDSAY 
ASKED WHETHER THEY BELIEVED THE OVERTURES TO BE GENUINE; ALL THE 
RHETORIC AND ACTIONS FROM ZANU-PF OVER THE LAST SIX WEEKS INDICATED 
A HARDENING OF THEIR POSITION AND INCREASING POLARISATION OF THE 
POLITICAL LANDSCAPE.  TSVANGIRAI CONCURRED, BUT SAID THAT THE MDC 
HAD A NATIONAL RESPONSIBILITY TO EXPLORE ANY OPPORTUNITIES; THERE 
HAD TO BE NATIONAL CONSENSUS OVER THE ISSUES OF RULE OF LAW, LAND 
AND THE ECONOMY.  THEY WOULD TEST THE AUTHENTICITY OF THE APPROACH 
BY DEMANDING AN IMMEDIATE RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW.  HE WAS 
EMPHATIC THAT HE WAS NOT THROWING A LIFELINE TO ZANU-PF. 
 
¶6. ON 14 FEBRUARY CLIVE PUZEY, A PROMINENT WHITE BUSINESSMAN WHO 
SUPPORTS THE MDC HAD BRIEFED US ABOUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS, 
APPARENTLY WITH TSVANGIRAI'S BLESSING.  HE WENT INTO MORE DETAIL 
WITH A STORY ABOUT FINDING AN OFFSHORE LOCATION FOR SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSS 
IONS, 
USING THE VATICAN AS AN INTERMEDIARY, AND A 
FAR-FETCHED SCHEME BY THE MDC TO FLATTER MUGABE ON HIS BIRTHDAY 
(21 FEBRUARY).  HE SAID THAT THE ULTIMATE AIM OF PARTICIPATING 
IN THIS DIALOGUE WOULD BE TO EXPOSE THE DIVISIONS WITHIN ZANU-PF 
AND TO ENSURE MUGABE'S DEMISE. 
 
COMMENT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2710 
 
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      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
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R 160929Z FEB 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8237 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X5 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS ZI MDC ZANU PF
SUBJECT: BRITISH REPORT ON ZANU-PF OVERTURES TO THE MDC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00760  02 OF 02  160929Z 
 
¶7. TSVANGIRAI APPEARED CONFIDENT AND RELAXED DISCUSSING THIS 
SUBJECT.  HIS PERSONAL ADVISER GANDI MUDZINGWA WAS ALSO PRESENT 
AND LATER TOLD LINDSAY THAT THERE WERE MANY PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY 
FROM THE WHITE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, WHO THOUGHT THEY COULD BROKER 
A DEAL BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES.  THE MDC HAD TO SEE WHAT THEY 
COULD OFFER, AND EXPLORE ALL AVENUES. 
 
¶8. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT.  IF THE OVERTURES FROM 
ZANU-PF ARE GENUINE IT REVEALS A REAL CONCERN ABOUT THEIR 
RE-ELECTION CHANCES.  BUT WE THINK IT MORE LIKELY THAT THEY ARE 
TRYING TO MANUFACTURE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE MDC.  WE BELIEVE THAT 
TSVANGIRAI UNDERESTIMATES THE DANGER THIS COULD POSE TO THE 
 
SIPDIS 
UNITY OF HIS PARTY, AND WE EMPHASISED TO HIM THE IMPORTANCE OF 
WIDE INTERNAL CONSULTATION BEFORE EMBARKING UPON ANY SUBSTANTIVE DISCUS 
SIONS. 
HE DID CONCEDE THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE MDC'S 
ELECTORAL INTEREST TO WORK TO IMPROVE THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY, 
BUT REPEATED THAT IT WAS A NATIONAL RESPONSIBILITY.  TSVANGIRAI 
IS EITHER VERY NAIVE; DEEPLY IN THRALL TO THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY 
WHO ONLY SEE CHAOS AND BANKRUPTCY IF THE PRESENT IMPASSES 
CONTINUES; OR PLAYING A MORE SUBTLE GAME TRYING TO FIND DIVISIONS 
WITHIN ZANU-PF.  WE THINK HE IS TRYING TO PURSUE BOTH OF THE 
LATTER TWO OPTIONS. 
 
ORIGINATOR: RICHARD LINDSAY, SECOND SECRETARY POLITICAL 
 
LONGWORTH 
 
END TEXT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00760  02 OF 02  160929Z 
¶3. (C) COMMENT: WE AGREE WITH THE BRITISH ASSESSMENT ABOUT 
TSVANGIRAI'S POLITICAL NAIVETE AND ZANU-PF'S PROBABLE INTENTION 
 
SIPDIS 
OF SPLITTING THE MDC.  ON THE OTHER HAND, SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT 
EMMERSON MNANGAGWA, WHO INITIATED THE CONTACTS WITH THE MDC, 
IS A SHREWD POLITICAL PLAYER.  HE MAY BE EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES 
TO THE CURRENT COURSE ON WHICH THE RULING PARTY IS TAKING THE 
COUNTRY, WEIGHING THE OPTIONS FOR THE GOOD OF ZANU-PF AND, NOT 
THE LEAST, HIMSELF AS PRESIDENT MUGABE'S HEIR APPARENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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