This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

101504Z Jan 01


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9628

PAGE 01        HARARE  00181  01 OF 02  101505Z 
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                  ------------------B49260  101506Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7977
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID RMCCALL, AA/AFR VDERRYCK, AFR/SA 
CPALMA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00181  01 OF 02  101505Z 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI
SUBJECT: VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION CONTINUE IN ZIMBABWE 
BY-ELECTION DISTRICT 
 
REFTEL: HARARE 7164 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE IN BIKITA WEST-- 
WHERE A SPECIAL PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION WILL BE HELD 
JANUARY 13-14 TO FILL A SEAT LEFT VACANT BY THE DEATH OF 
THE INCUMBENT--HAS CONTINUED IN RECENT WEEKS AS ZANU-PF 
SUPPORTERS STEP UP THEIR INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN.  WAR 
VETERANS AND ZANU-PF YOUTH CONTINUE TO BEAT UP MDC 
SUPPORTERS, WHEREAS THE MDC HAS DEPLOYED ITS OWN YOUTH 
TO "PROTECT" ITS CAMPAIGNERS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF 
ZIMBABWE AND ZANU-PF ARE DOLING OUT LARGESSE IN AN 
UNABASHED ATTEMPT TO BUY VOTES.  BOTH PARTIES ARE 
BRINGING IN HEAVY-HITTERS FROM HARARE TO HOLD RALLIES IN 
THE MASVINGO DISTRICT, ACCORDING TO AN MDC ADVISOR. 
GIVEN ZANU-PF'S HAM-FISTED TACTICS, AND THE WIDESPREAD 
FEAR AMONG THE ELECTORATE, WE WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THE 
MDC PULLED OUT A VICTORY HERE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) OUR CONTACTS HAVE INFORMED US OF NEW INCIDENTS 
OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION IN BIKITA WEST.  AN ADVISOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00181  01 OF 02  101505Z 
TO MDC CANDIDATE BONIFACE PAKAI, ALEX MUPA, CLAIMED THAT 
ON JANUARY 6 A DRIVER FOR MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI (WHO ADDRESSED A CAMPAIGN RALLY THAT 
 
SIPDIS 
WEEKEND), WAS SEVERELY BEATEN BY A GANG DIRECTED BY WAR 
VETERANS LEADER AND ZANU-PF MP FOR CHIKOMBA CHENJERAI 
HUNZVI, AND HAD TO BE HOSPITALIZED IN HARARE. 
TSVANGIRAI TOLD JOURNALISTS ON JANUARY 10 THAT HUNZVI 
 
SIPDIS 
HAS BEEN GIVEN "CARTE BLANCHE" TO CARRY OUT A CAMPAIGN 
OF TERROR IN THE AREA, WITH THE COMPLICITY OF SOME 
POLICE OFFICERS.  MUPA ALSO STATED THAT WAR VETERANS, IN 
POLICE UNIFORMS, HAVE BEEN VISITING SUSPECTED MDC 
SYMPATHIZERS IN THE NIGHT AND THREATENING THEM WITH 
DEATH IF THEY VOTE FOR THE MDC, A REPORT CONFIRMED TO US 
BY TSVANGIRAI'S RIGHT-HAND MAN, GANDI MUDZINGWA.  HE 
CLAIMED THAT ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS ARE INFLICTING INJURIES 
ON VOTERS' HANDS SO THAT THEY CANNOT VOTE ON ELECTION 
DAY. (NOTE: VOTERS ARE REQUIRED TO HAVE THEIR HANDS 
STAMPED WITH INVISIBLE INK AFTER VOTING--IF THEY CANNOT 
RECEIVE THE STAMP, THEY ARE DISQUALIFIED FROM VOTING. 
END NOTE.)  PRISCILLA MISIHAIRABWI-MUSHONGA, MDC MP FOR 
GLEN NORAH, TOLD POLOFF THAT SHE SENT TWO STAFF MEMBERS 
TO BIKITA JANUARY 7 TO INSPECT THE VOTERS' ROLLS.  THEY 
WERE BEATEN WITHIN 24 HOURS OF ARRIVING IN THE DISTRICT, 
THE MDC MP ASSERTED.  MUPA REPORTED THAT PAKAI'S 
CAMPAIGN MANAGER WAS ABDUCTED ON JANUARY 8 AND TAKEN TO 
A REMOTE LOCATION WHERE HE WAS BEATEN WITH CLUBS. 
 
¶3.  (U) AT A JANUARY 10 PRESS CONFERENCE, TSVANGIRAI 
PRESENTED 11 OF 13 MDC SUPPORTERS WHO HE CLAIMED WERE 
DETAINED AND TORTURED FOR FIVE DAYS AT BIKITA WEST 
POLICE STATION, THEN DROPPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00181  01 OF 02  101505Z 
IN NEARBY GONAREZHOU GAME PARK, WHICH IS FULL OF LIONS, 
RHINO, AND OTHER WILD ANIMALS.  TWO OF THE YOUNG MEN HAD 
BADLY BRUISED FACES.  MUDZINGWA TOLD POLOFF THAT MOST OF 
THE ALLEGED VICTIMS DID NOT SHOW EVIDENT SIGNS OF 
TORTURE AS THEY HAD BEEN BEATEN ON THE BOTTOMS OF THEIR 
FEET.  ELEVEN MANAGED TO FIND THEIR WAY OUT, BUT THE 
OTHER TWO REMAIN UNACCOUNTED FOR.  CALLING THE INCIDENT 
"UNPRECEDENTED," TSVANGIRAI SAID THE ENVIRONMENT IN 
BIKITA WAS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION. 
THE MDC, HOWEVER, WAS DETERMINED NOT TO BOYCOTT THE 
VOTE, BECAUSE DOING SO WOULD HAND THE SEAT TO ZANU-PF 
AND BECAUSE THEIR SUPPORTERS IN THE AREA HAVE URGED THE 
OPPOSITION PARTY TO PRESS ON.  TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT 
MANY LOCAL RESIDENTS HAD TOLD MDC OFFICIALS THAT THEY 
WERE ATTENDING LOCAL ZANU-PF RALLIES OUT OF FEAR OF WHAT 
WOULD HAPPEN IF THEY DID NOT, BUT THAT THEY INTENDED TO 
CAST THEIR BALLOT FOR THE MDC ON ELECTION DAY. 
 
¶4.  (C) ZANU-PF IS ALSO DISPENSING GOVERNMENT LARGESS TO 
SKEW THE VOTE IN ITS FAVOR.  THE GOVERNMENT REPORTEDLY 
HAS OFFERED TO PAY SCHOOL FEES FOR THOSE WHO VOTE FOR 
ZANU-PF, AND WE HAVE HEARD A REPORT THAT YOUTH 
DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI HAS DOLED OUT Z$3 
MILLION (US$50,000) TO ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS AND POTENTIAL 
VOTERS TO SECURE THEIR VOTE FOR ZANU-PF.  ACCORDING TO 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ9631 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00181  02 OF 02  101505Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01 
      L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SCT-00   SP-00 
      IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-02 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------B4926E  101506Z /38 
P 101504Z JAN 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7978 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR A/AID RMCCALL, AA/AFR VDERRYCK, AFR/SA 
CPALMA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00181  02 OF 02  101505Z 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/11 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR ZI
SUBJECT: VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION CONTINUE IN ZIMBABWE 
BY-ELECTION DISTRICT 
 
MUPA, THE LOCAL YOUTH ARE RECEIVING BETWEEN Z$1,000 AND 
Z$10,000 EACH TO DO EVERYTHING FROM VOTING FOR ZANU-PF 
TO BEATING UP MDC SUPPORTERS.  MUPA CLAIMED THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT HAS ESTABLISHED A NEW RESETTLEMENT AREA IN 
THE SAVE CONSERVANCY--WHICH EXTENDS INTO BIKITA--IN 
ORDER TO DISTRIBUTE LAND TO THOSE PROMISING TO VOTE FOR 
ZANU-PF.  HE STATED THAT ZANU-PF IS DRAWING UP A 
"SUPPLEMENTAL" VOTERS' ROLL OF APPROXIMATELY 3,400 NEW 
VOTERS--MOSTLY FROM AREAS OUTSIDE BIKITA WEST--WITH THE 
COOPERATION OF THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION 
(ESC).  THE ESC ALSO FAILED TO NOTIFY THE MDC OF AN 
EARLY JANUARY MEETING WHERE IT ASSIGNED MOSTLY LOCAL 
CIVIL SERVANTS, POLICE AND CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE 
ORGANIZAITON OFFICERS AS PRESIDING OFFICERS TO OVERSEE 
THE POLLING STATIONS, ACCORDING TO MUPA. 
 
¶5.  (C) DESPITE THE VIOLENCE AND LEVEL OF FEAR AMONG THE 
POPULACE, BOTH ZANU-PF AND MDC ARE BRINGING IN THEIR 
HEAVY-HITTERS TO CAMPAIGN IN THE DISTRICT.  ZANU-PF HAS 
BROUGHT IN FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE, LOCAL GOVERNMENT 
MINISTER CHOMBO, MASVINGO GOVERNOR JOSIAH HUNGWE, YOUTH 
DEVELOPMENT MINISTER BORDER GEZI AND OTHERS TO CONDUCT 
UP TO FIVE RALLIES A DAY IN THE DISTRICT.  MUPA CLAIMED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  00181  02 OF 02  101505Z 
THAT THE ZANU-PF RALLIES ARE DRAWING FEWER THAN 200 
PEOPLE EACH, AND MOST OF THEM ARE ELDERLY WOMEN-- 
TRADITIONAL ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS.  THE MDC, FOR ITS PART, 
HAS SENT VICE-PRESIDENT SIBANDA, SECRETARY-GENERAL 
NCUBE, NATIONAL CHAIRMAN MATONGO, 10 MPS AND OTHER 
MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE, IN ADDITION TO 
TSVANGIRAI'S APPEARANCE LAST WEEKEND.  THE MDC HAS HELD 
 
SIPDIS 
FOUR RALLIES ACROSS THE CONSTITUENCY, ACCORDING TO THE 
PARTY'S E-MAIL UPDATE.  MUPA CLAIMED THAT ITS RALLIES 
HAVE ATTRACTED BETWEEN 500 AND 2,000 PEOPLE EACH. 
ACCORDING TO THE MDC'S INFORMAL SURVEYS OF LIKELY 
VOTERS, THE MDC WILL WIN THE ELECTION BY 2,500 VOTES 
(7,500 FOR MDC AND 5,000 FOR ZANU-PF). 
 
¶6.  (C) GANDI MUDZINGWA, TSVANGIRAI'S ADVISOR, SAID THE 
DEPLOYMENT OF MDC YOUTH HAS RESTORED A BIT OF STABILITY 
TO THE AREA.  THESE YOUTH, HOWEVER, HAVE FOCUSED ON 
PROTECTING THE MDC CANDIDATE AND THOSE CAMPAIGNING FOR 
HIM, LEADING WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS TO 
FOCUS THEIR INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN ON ORDINARY CIVILIANS. 
MUDZINGWA WAS DUBIOUS ABOUT WHETHER DEPLOYING MDC YOUTHS 
WAS A SUSTAINABLE LONG-TERM STRATEGY, AS IT REQUIRED 
"COLOSSAL" RESOURCES, AND THE OPPOSITION PARTY WAS 
CURRENTLY IN DESPERATE FINANCIAL STRAITS. 
 
¶7.  (C) COMMENT: GIVEN ZANU-PF'S WIDE RANGE OF HAM- 
FISTED INTIMIDATION AND MANIPULATION TACTICS, AND OUR 
CONTACTS' REPORTED LEVEL OF PERVASIVE FEAR AMONG VOTERS, 
THE ODDS ARE AGAINST THE MDC HOLDING ONTO ITS BIKITA 
WEST SEAT IN PARLIAMENT.  IT WOULD TAKE A LARGE VOTER 
TURNOUT FOR THE MDC TO WIN, AND THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY IN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  00181  02 OF 02  101505Z 
THE CURRENT ELECTION CLIMATE.  THE MDC'S PROJECTIONS OF 
VICTORY ARE A BIT OVEROPTIMISTIC, IN OUR ASSESSMENT, 
ESPECIALLY IF IT BELIEVES ONLY 12,500 OUT OF 40,000 
ELIGIBLE VOTERS WILL TURN OUT ON ELECTION DAY.  THE 
MARONDERA WEST BY-ELECTION AND THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS SHOWED THAT LOW VOTER TURNOUTS DO NOT FAVOR 
THE MDC, AND SOME OBSERVERS HERE ALREADY ARE CALLING THE 
ELECTION A ZANU-PF WIN.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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