This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6711

PAGE 01        HARARE  06644  01 OF 03  281616Z 
ACTION AF-00    

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  COME-00  
      DODE-00  DOEE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-00   VC-00    H-01     
      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     
      SP-00    IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W
                  ------------------A4AC73  281616Z /68    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7713
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/10 
TAGS: PGOV ECON EAGR PREL ZI
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER SIGNALS POSSIBLE SHIFT IN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06644  01 OF 03  281616Z 
ZIMBABWE LAND REFORM POLICY 
 
REFS: A) HARARE 6330, B) HARARE 6297, C) HARARE 6282 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS: 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: IN A NOVEMBER 15 MEETING WITH ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY SUSAN E. RICE, FOREIGN MINISTER STAN MUDENGE 
 
SIPDIS 
SIGNALED THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) IS READY 
TO RETURN TO THE PRINCIPLES OF THE 1998 DONORS 
CONFERENCE AGREEMENT ON LAND REFORM.  THE MINISTER 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT MISTAKES HAD BEEN MADE IN THE FARM 
DESIGNATION AND ACQUISITION PROCESS, AND THAT THERE IS 
AN "ADJUSTMENT EXERCISE" UNDERWAY TO DELIST THE MOST 
PRODUCTIVE COMMERCIAL FARMS.  MUDENGE ALSO SAID THAT THE 
GOZ IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE MANAGERS OF THE SAVE 
CONSERVANCY TO FIND AN EQUITABLE SOLUTION TO THE 
OCCUPATION OF THAT IMPORTANT TOURIST DESTINATION BY WAR 
VETERANS.  MUDENGE SAID THAT THE GOZ VIEWS THE UNDP PLAN 
AS THE WAY FORWARD ON LAND REFORM.  THE GOZ'S DECISION 
TO ABIDE BY THE SUPREME COURT ORDER DECLARING THE FARM 
OCCUPATIONS ILLEGAL (REF A) IS INTENDED AS A SIGNAL THAT 
THE GOZ IS SERIOUS ABOUT RESOLVING THE LAND ISSUE 
AMICABLY.  IF THE DONORS ARE WILLING TO COME BACK AND 
FUND LAND REFORM IN ZIMBABWE, THE GOZ WILL EFFECTIVELY 
AND IMMEDIATELY, IF NOT EXPLICITLY, BACK AWAY FROM ITS 
FAST-TRACK RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM ACCORDING TO MUDENGE. 
FURTHERMORE, MUDENGE BELIEVES PRESIDENT MUGABE MAY WELL 
BE PREPARED TO LEAVE OFFICE ONCE THE LAND ISSUE IS 
WORKED OUT, AND AFTER A REASONABLE FACE-SAVING 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  06644  01 OF 03  281616Z 
INTERLUDE.  HE CAUTIONED HOWEVER, THAT MUGABE WILL PUSH 
THE COUNTRY OVER THE PRECIPICE IF MASS ACTION BY THE 
OPPOSITION BACKS HIM INTO A CORNER.  THE SECURITY FORCES 
HAVE BEEN GIVEN ORDERS TO DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE, SHORT 
OF USING LETHAL FORCE, TO STOP MASS ACTION, ACCORDING TO 
THE FOREIGN MINISTER.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) ON NOVEMBER 15, ASSISTANT SECRETARY SUSAN E. 
RICE, ACCOMPANIED BY OFFICE OF SOUTHERN AFRICAN AFFAIRS 
DIRECTOR ARLENE RENDER, SPECIAL ASSISTANT DON GATTO, 
AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD, DCM, AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER), 
MET MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS STAN MUDENGE. 
ACCOMPANYING THE FOREIGN MINISTER WERE POLITICAL AND 
ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DIRECTOR DR. NGONI CHIDEYA, AFRICA AND 
MIDDLE EAST DIRECTOR GODFREY MWEDZI, UNDERSECRETARY FOR 
EUROPE AND AMERICAS JONATHAN WUTAUNASHE, AND U.S. DESK 
OFFICER RICHARD CHIBUWE.  THE MEETING OPENED WITH A 
DISCUSSION ON DRC MATTERS, WHICH WILL BE REPORTED 
SEPTEL. 
 
------------------------------------- 
GOVERNMENT WILL PLAY BY ITS OWN RULES 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) THE FOREIGN MINISTER THEN OFFERED TO DISCUSS THE 
LAND ISSUE.  HE OPENED BY SAYING THAT ERRORS HAD BEEN 
MADE IN THE GOZ'S DESIGNATION AND ACQUISITION OF FARM 
PROPERTIES FOR RESETTLEMENT.  IN FACT, AN "ADJUSTMENT 
EXERCISE" IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO REMOVE A NUMBER OF 
AGRI-BUSINESS FARMS FROM THE ACQUISITION LIST. 
APPROXIMATELY 200 OF THE COUNTRY'S MOST PRODUCTIVE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  06644  01 OF 03  281616Z 
TOBACCO FARMS, WHICH PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF ZIMBABWE'S 
FOREIGN EXCHANGE, WOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE LIST, 
MUDENGE STATED.  THE GOZ WOULD AUTOMATICALLY DELIST 
OTHER FARMS THAT DO NOT MEET THE QUALIFICATIONS FOR 
RESETTLEMENT PURPOSES.  THE GOZ WOULD ALSO NOT LIST NEW 
PROPERTIES FOR ACQUISITION TO REMOVE THE "CLOUD OF 
DOUBT" HANGING OVER THE REMAINING FARMS SO THAT THEY CAN 
PLANT AND HARVEST THEIR CROPS WITH CONFIDENCE. 
 
¶4.  (C) NONETHELESS, THE GOZ EXPECTED SOME OWNERS OF 
LISTED FARMS TO RESIST COMPULSORY ACQUISITION, THE 
MINISTER CONTINUED.  THE GOZ WOULD STRICTLY FOLLOW THE 
REGULATIONS THAT REQUIRE THE GOVERNMENT TO GIVE 90 DAYS 
NOTICE OF ACQUISITION AND THAT ALLOW UP TO A 60-DAY 
APPEAL PROCESS IN AN ADMINISTRATIVE COURT.  FARMERS 
COULD SUCCESSFULLY CHALLENGE THE ACQUISITION OF THEIR 
FARM IF THEY COULD SHOW THAT THE FARM WOULD NOT BE USED 
FOR RESETTLEMENT PURPOSES.  MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT SOME 
FARMERS HAD ALREADY SUCCEEDED IN GETTING THEIR 
PROPERTIES DELISTED BY WAY OF THE APPEAL PROCESS. 
 
¶5.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR RAISED THE CONCERNS THAT AMERICAN 
INVESTORS IN THE AREA OF THE SAVE CONSERVANCY HAVE OVER 
THE OCCUPATION OF THE GAME PARK BY WAR VETERANS.  THE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6668 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06644  02 OF 03  281602Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  COME-00 
      DODE-00  DOEE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-00   VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------A4AB43  281602Z /68 
O 281353Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7714 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/10 
TAGS: PGOV ECON EAGR PREL ZI
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER SIGNALS POSSIBLE SHIFT IN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06644  02 OF 03  281602Z 
ZIMBABWE LAND REFORM POLICY 
 
SQUATTERS HAVE DONE CONSIDERABLE ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE TO 
THE PARK BY CUTTING DOWN TREES AND KILLING WILDLIFE, AND 
HAVE SCARED AWAY MANY POTENTIAL TOURISTS.  MUDENGE 
STATED THAT THE CONSERVANCY IS NEAR THE DISTRICT HE 
REPRESENTS IN PARLIAMENT (MASVINGO NORTH), AND THAT HE 
HAS BEEN IN TOUCH WITH THE PARK MANAGERS AND OTHER 
INTERESTED PARTIES IN THE AREA.  HE STATED THAT THE 
MEDIA HAD EXAGGERATED THE PROBLEMS CREATED BY THE 
SQUATTERS, BUT THAT HE WAS TRYING TO WORK OUT A DEAL TO 
SOLVE THE PROBLEM.  THE WHITE MANAGERS HAD PROPOSED AN 
ARRANGEMENT WHERE SOME OF THE PROCEEDS GENERATED FROM 
THE PARK WOULD GO TO THE LOCAL COMMUNITY.  THE MINISTER 
COUNTERED THAT THAT WOULD STILL LEAVE THE CONSERVANCY A 
"WHITE ISLAND," A STATE OF AFFAIRS THAT WAS NOT 
ACCEPTABLE.  NONETHELESS, HE FELT THE TWO SIDES WERE 
CLOSER TO REACHING AN AMICABLE AGREEMENT. 
 
---------------------------------- 
UNDP INITIATIVE IS THE WAY FORWARD 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) THE GROUP THEN BROKE UP SO THAT ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY RICE AND THE MINISTER COULD HAVE A PRIVATE 
 
SIPDIS 
MEETING.  IN THAT ONE-ON-ONE, MUDENGE TOLD THE SECRETARY 
THAT THE GOZ SEES THE UNDP LAND REFORM INITIATIVE AS THE 
WAY FORWARD.  HE SAID THAT THE UNDP PLAN (REF C) IS IN 
ACCORDANCE WITH THE PRINCIPLES AGREED UPON AT THE 1998 
DONORS CONFERENCE ON LAND.  IT IS ALSO IN ACCORDANCE 
WITH THE RULE OF LAW, TRANSPARENCY, AND ECONOMIC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  06644  02 OF 03  281602Z 
VIABILITY.  IF THE DONORS AGREED TO COME BACK TO 
ZIMBABWE TO FUND LAND REFORM, THE GOZ WOULD EFFECTIVELY, 
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY, DROP ITS FAST-TRACK LAND 
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM "LIKE A HOT POTATO."  THE GOZ ONLY 
ADOPTED IT BECAUSE IT HAD BEEN BACKED INTO A CORNER AND 
SAW NO OTHER WAY OUT. 
 
----------------------- 
RULE OF LAW WILL RETURN 
----------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) THE MINISTER CHARACTERIZED THE GOZ'S DECISION TO 
ABIDE BY THE SUPREME COURT'S CONSENT ORDER DECLARING THE 
FARM OCCUPATIONS ILLEGAL (REF A) AS VERY SIGNIFICANT AND 
WOULD LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR THE UNDP LAND REFORM 
INITIATIVE.  HE SAID THE DECISION WAS HOTLY DEBATED IN 
CABINET, BUT ULTIMATELY IT WAS DECIDED THAT THE GOZ 
COULD NOT AFFORD TO DISOBEY ITS OWN LAWS OR BE PERCEIVED 
AS DOING SO.  (COMMENT:  OF COURSE, THIS WOULD NOT HAVE 
BEEN THE FIRST TIME.  END COMMENT.)  HE STATED THAT BY 
AGREEING TO THE RULING, THE GOZ AGREED TO ABIDE BY THE 
RULES AND REGULATIONS ALREADY SPELLED OUT IN THE LAND 
LEGISLATION.. 
 
------------------------------ 
MUGABE WILL GO, BUT DON'T PUSH 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (C) WHEN ASKED IF MUGABE WILL RETIRE, MUDENGE 
REPLIED THAT THE PRESIDENT MAY WELL BE PREPARED TO GO IF 
THE LAND ISSUE IS WORKED OUT FIRST.  HE SAID THAT MANY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  06644  02 OF 03  281602Z 
IN ZANU-PF WON'T LET HIM GO UNTIL THE LAND ISSUE IS 
RESOLVED ONCE AND FOR ALL.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE OTHERS IN 
THE RULING PARTY WHO ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE PARTY'S 
SURVIVAL.  THE FOREIGN MINISTER STATED THAT MUGABE'S 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT HE WILL RUN AGAIN FOR THE 
PRESIDENCY IN 2002, AND THEN ONCE RE-ELECTED, STEP DOWN 
AFTER A YEAR OR TWO. 
 
¶9.  (C) MUDENGE CAUTIONED, HOWEVER, THAT IF THE 
OPPOSITION ENGAGES IN MASS ACTION, IT WILL PUSH MUGABE 
INTO A CORNER.  IF MUGABE IS PUSHED TOO HARD, HE WILL 
TAKE THE COUNTRY OVER THE CLIFF, MUDENGE WARNED.  HE 
SAID THAT A STATE OF EMERGENCY, SUSPENSION OF 
PARLIAMENT, OR MARTIAL LAW ARE ALL POSSIBILITIES IF MASS 
ACTION COMES TO PASS.  THE MINISTER STATED THAT HE 
BELIEVES THE BRITISH ARE ENCOURAGING MASS ACTION IN 
ZIMBABWE AND THAT THE EU HAS LOST ALL INFLUENCE IN 
ZIMBABWE BECAUSE IT HAS ALIGNED ITSELF WITH THE BRITISH. 
THE GOZ IS TRYING NOT TO PROVOKE THE OPPOSITION BECAUSE 
THE MDC IS TRYING TO BAIT THE GOVERNMENT INTO USING 
VIOLENCE.  THE SECURITY FORCES HAVE BEEN GIVEN ORDERS TO 
USE ALL MEANS NECESSARY, BUT EXPLICITLY NOT/NOT LETHAL 
FORCE, TO STOP THE PLANNED MASS ACTION (REF B).  THE 
MINISTER HINTED THAT THESE ORDERS COULD BE IGNORED--OR 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6670 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06644  03 OF 03  281603Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   CIAE-00  SMEC-00  COME-00 
      DODE-00  DOEE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EUR-00   VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------A4AB5A  281603Z /68 
O 281353Z NOV 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7715 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/10 
TAGS: PGOV ECON EAGR PREL ZI
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER SIGNALS POSSIBLE SHIFT IN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06644  03 OF 03  281603Z 
ZIMBABWE LAND REFORM POLICY 
 
CHANGED--IF THE THREAT TO THE GOVERNMENT BECAME DIRE, 
HOWEVER. 
 
------------------------- 
SOME SIGNS OF RATIONALITY 
------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) COMMENT: MUDENGE'S COMMENTS COULD SIGNAL A 
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE GOZ'S LAND REFORM POLICY, AND 
POSSIBLY A BROADER WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IN TURNING AROUND ITS FREE- 
FALLING ECONOMY.  MUDENGE'S STATEMENTS MEAN MORE SINCE 
HE IS A ZANU-PF HARDLINER AND HAS BEEN VERY CRITICAL OF 
THE DONORS' STANCE ON LAND REFORM.  RULING PARTY LEADERS 
MAY HAVE FINALLY COME TO RECOGNIZE THE UNSUSTAINABILITY 
OF ITS LAND REFORM "PROGRAM" AND THE DISASTROUS EFFECTS 
IT HAS HAD ON THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY AND ZANU-PF'S 
POPULARITY.  THE CHANGE IN DIRECTION APPEARS TO GO 
DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS ATTEMPTS WHEN MINISTERS GAVE ORDERS 
TO REMOVE FARM OCCUPIERS WHEN MUGABE WAS OUT OF COUNTRY, 
ONLY TO BE REVERSED WHEN MUGABE RETURNED.  MUGABE WAS IN 
COUNTRY WHEN MUDENGE TALKED WITH THE ASSISTANT 
SECRETARY, AND THE DECISION TO ABIDE BY THE SUPREME 
 
SIPDIS 
COURT RULING MUST HAVE BEEN MADE WELL BEFORE MUGABE LEFT 
FOR LIBYA NOVEMBER 11. 
 
¶11. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: THE REAL TEST OF THE 
GOVERNMENT'S RESOLVE, HOWEVER, REMAINS IN ITS 
WILLINGNESS TO REIGN IN WAR VETERANS AND OTHERS WHO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  06644  03 OF 03  281603Z 
CONTINUE TO ATTACK FARMERS AND ITS WILLINGNESS TO EXPEL 
THOUSANDS OF SQUATTERS FROM OCCUPIED FARMS, MANY OF WHOM 
HAVE BUILT PERMANENT HOUSES.  RECENT ATTACKS ON WAR 
VETERANS IN THE GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED MEDIA COULD 
PRESAGE THE END OF THEIR HEYDAY ON THE COMMERCIAL FARMS. 
THE EMBASSY THINKS MUGABE MAY FINALLY RECOGNIZE THAT THE 
DESTRUCTION OF COMMERCIAL FARMING, ALONG WITH LAW AND 
ORDER AND INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN 
HIS, AND HIS PARTY'S, UNDOING. 
 
¶12.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: FINALLY, CONTRARY TO THE 
MINISTER'S ASSERTIONS, RELIABLE EMBASSY SOURCES TELL US 
THAT THE SAVE CONSERVANCY PROBLEM IS NOT CLOSE TO BEING 
SOLVED AND THAT THE MINISTER IS POLITICALLY ALLIED WITH 
THOSE OFFICIALS WHO ARE PREVENTING RESOLUTION. END 
COMMENT. 
 
¶13.  (U) A/S RICE CLEARED THIS MESSAGE. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>