This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4577

PAGE 01        HARARE  06120  01 OF 02  311118Z 
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                  ------------------98CB32  311137Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7481
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 006120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06120  01 OF 02  311118Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/10 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: A ZANU-PF DEPUTY MINISTER AND MP'S INSIDER VIEW 
ON THE MUGABE SUCCESSION ISSUE 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD.  REASONS 1.5 (B) AND 
(D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ZANU-PF DEPUTY MINISTER (ENVIRONMENT AND 
TOURISM) AND MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT EDWARD CHINDORI- 
CHININGA PAID A CALL ON AMBASSADOR MCDONALD ON OCTOBER 
30 TO UPDATE HIM ON HIS MINISTRY'S LATEST ACTIVITIES. 
CHINDORI-CHININGA, WHO IS PART OF THE YOUNGER GENERATION 
OF ZANU-PF POLITICIANS, SHARED HIS INSIDER VIEWS ON THE 
MUGABE SUCCESSION ISSUE WITH THE AMBASSADOR.  HE STATED 
THAT THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO SIDES TO THE QUESTION OF 
MUGABE'S ROLE IN ZANU-PF.  ONE SIDE SAYS THE PRESIDENT 
MUST RETIRE.  ZANU-PF WILL AMEND THE PARTY CONSTITUTION 
TO ALLOW MUGABE TO REMAIN AS HEAD OF PARTY, BUT THAT A 
NEW CANDIDATE WILL BE FOUND TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF 
ZIMBABWE IN 2002.  THE OTHER SIDE SAYS THAT IT IS 
ALREADY TOO LATE TO FIND A NEW CANDIDATE WITH NATIONAL 
STATURE TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT OF ZIMBABWE IN 2002, SO 
MUGABE WILL HAVE TO BE THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE.  ACCORDING 
TO THE DEPUTY MINISTER, THE SIDES ARE NOT DIVIDED ALONG 
GENERATIONAL LINES, BUT RATHER BASED ON THEIR VIEW OF 
HOW ZANU-PF CAN MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE PRESIDENCY.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------ 
ZANU-PF: A PARTY DIVIDED 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  06120  01 OF 02  311118Z 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD TOOK ADVANTAGE OF HIS MEETING 
WITH CHINDORI-CHININGA, WHICH WAS INITIATED BY THE 
DEPUTY MINISTER TO DISCUSS HIS MINSTRY'S ACTIVITIES 
(REPORTED IN SEPTEL), TO ASK HIM HIS VIEW OF EVENTS 
WITHIN ZANU-PF, AND IN PARTICULAR THE QUESTION OF WHAT 
WAS THE INTERNAL DEBATE WITHIN THE PARTY REGARDING THE 
QUESTION OF MUGABE'S FUTURE.  THE DEPUTY MINISTER IS ONE 
OF THE GROUP OF NEW YOUNGER MPS OF ZANU-PF WHO ARE 
FORWARD THINKING AND PROFESSIONAL IN THEIR OUTLOOK, AND 
WILLING TO EXPOUND ON THIS ISSUE.  WHILE NOT TIPPING HIS 
HAND, CHINDORI-CHININGA REVEALED THAT THERE ARE TWO 
SIDES WITHIN ZANU-PF REGARDING THE ISSUE OF MUGABE AND 
HIS POSSIBLE CANDIDACY FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION.  THE TWO SIDES ARE NOT BASED ON A GENERATIONAL 
DIVIDE WITHIN THE PARTY, AS WE EXPECTED TO HEAR, BUT 
RATHER APPEARED TO BE BASED ON ZANU-PF POLITICIANS' 
VIEWS AS TO WHAT CANDIDATE WOULD MORE LIKELY ENSURE THAT 
THE PARTY RETAINS CONTROL OF THE PRESIDENCY. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
ONE SIDE: A GRACEFUL RETIREMENT FOR MUGABE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (C) ONE SIDE OF THIS ISSUE BELIEVES THAT IT IS TIME 
FOR MUGABE TO RETIRE AND THAT HE SHOULD NOT BE THE 
PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. 
IN ORDER TO PROVIDE FOR A FACE SAVING EXIT FOR MUGABE 
THEY WOULD HAVE HIM STAY ON AS ZANU-PF'S PRESIDENT, BUT 
THE PARTY WOULD PRESENT A NEW CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  06120  01 OF 02  311118Z 
ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.  THIS PLAN WOULD 
REQUIRE A CHANGE IN THE ZANU-PF PARTY CONSTITUTION SINCE 
IT PRESENTLY STATES THAT THE PARTY'S PRESIDENT WILL BE 
THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR THE NATION'S PRESIDENCY. 
CHINDORI-CHININGA DID NOT APPEAR TO BELIEVE THAT IT 
WOULD BE THAT DIFFICULT TO GET THE SUPPORT TO CHANGE THE 
PARTY'S CONSTITUTION IN THIS MANNER.  THIS PLAN WOULD 
ALLOW MUGABE TO REMAIN AN ELDER STATESMAN OF PARTY 
POLITICS, WHILE ALLOWING A NEW CANDIDATE WITH GREATER 
APPEAL, AND WITHOUT THE NEGATIVE BAGGAGE OF MUGABE, TO 
REPRESENT ZANU-PF IN THE 2002 ELECTIONS. 
 
---------------------------------- 
THE OTHER SIDE: TOO LATE TO CHANGE 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DEBATE IN ZANU-PF BELIEVES 
THAT IT IS TOO LATE TO DUMP MUGABE AS THE PARTY 
CANDIDATE FOR THE 2002 ELECTIONS.  THIS GROUP BELIEVES 
THAT NO ONE IN THE PARTY HAS THE NATIONAL NAME 
RECOGNITION OF MUGABE OR THE SUPPORT OF THE DIVERSE 
ELEMENTS WITHIN THE PARTY STRUCTURE.  THEREFORE, WHAT IS 
NEEDED IS FOR THE PARTY TO CLOSE RANKS AND SUPPORT 
MUGABE AGGRESSIVELY AS THE PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR 2002. 
THE AMBASSADOR ASKED CHINDORI-CHININGA HOW HE THOUGHT 
THIS SIDE OF THE PARTY COULD BELIEVE THAT MUGABE WOULD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4569 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  06120  02 OF 02  311119Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
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      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /007W 
                  ------------------98CAFD  311136Z /38 
P 311116Z OCT 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7482 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 006120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AND AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN 
 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  06120  02 OF 02  311119Z 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/10 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: A ZANU-PF DEPUTY MINISTER AND MP'S INSIDER VIEW 
ON THE MUGABE SUCCESSION ISSUE 
 
BE THEIR BEST CANDIDATE WHEN RECENT POLLS INDICATED THAT 
THE PROBABLE MDC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE MORGAN 
TSVANGIRAI WOULD TROUNCE MUGABE IN FREE AND FAIR 
 
SIPDIS 
ELECTIONS.  THE DEPUTY MINISTER JUST SHRUGGED HIS 
SHOULDERS IN RESPONSE. 
 
------------------------------------ 
IDENTIFYING AN ALTERNATIVE TO MUGABE 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) THE EASE-MUGABE-OUT FACTION WOULD IDENTIFY A NEW 
CANDIDATE FOR THE PARTY FOR 2002 BY TURNING TO THE 
PROVINCIAL PARTY STRUCTURES AND ASKING THEM TO EACH 
SUBMIT A LIST OF WHO THEY WOULD SUPPORT AS A NEW 
CANDIDATE.  THE PARTY LEADERSHIP WOULD THEN CROSSCHECK 
THESE LISTS, AND IDENTIFY THE NAME THAT APPEARED ON THE 
MOST PROVINCIAL LISTS.  THIS WOULD THEN BE THE PARTY'S 
CANDIDATE.  THIS CANDIDATE'S BROAD PARTY AND NATIONAL 
SUPPORT WOULD BE EVIDENCED BY THE FACT THAT HIS NAME 
APPEARED ON THE MAJORITY OF PROVINCIAL PARTY LISTS. 
WHEN CHINDORI-CHININGA WAS ASKED WHETHER ZANU-PF WAS 
CONSIDERING HAVING A PARTY PRIMARY TO DETERMINE THE 
PARTY'S CANDIDATE FOR 2002, AS THEY HAD FOR 
PARLIAMENTARY SEATS IN THE 2000 ELECTIONS, HE DIDN'T 
HESITATE IN STATING NO. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  06120  02 OF 02  311119Z 
--------------------------------------------- 
AMBASSADOR MCDONALD URGES CONFIDENCE BUILDING 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) AMBASSADOR MCDONALD TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY OF THE 
MEETING WITH THIS YOUNGER UP-AND-COMING MEMBER OF ZANU- 
PF TO EXPRESS THE U.S. CONCERN WITH POLITICAL 
DEVELOPMENTS IN ZIMBABWE AND TO STATE THAT NOW WAS THE 
TIME FOR ZANU-PF MPS AND MDC MPS TO WORK TOGETHER ON 
ISSUES OF COMMON NATIONAL INTEREST IN PARLIAMENT IN 
ORDER TO INCREASE DIALOGUE AND DECREASE TENSIONS.  THE 
AMBASSADOR POINTED OUT THAT THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE 
WAS EVEN MORE TENSE AFTER THE RECENT FOOD RIOTS, AND 
THAT THIS WAS THE IMAGE THAT THE WORLD WAS GETTING OF 
ZIMBABWE, A NATION DESCENDING INTO CHAOS AND VIOLENCE. 
THE DEPUTY MINISTER STATED THAT HE SHARED THE 
AMBASSADOR'S CONCERN AND THAT HE AND OTHER ZANU-PF MPS 
WERE TRYING TO BUILD BRIDGES TO MPS OF THE MDC, BOTH 
WITHIN THE PARLIAMENTARY SETTING, AND IN OTHER SETTINGS. 
THE AMBASSADOR POINTED OUT TO CHINDORI-CHININGA THAT THE 
PORTFOLIO OF HIS MINISTRY, ENVIRONMENT AND TOURISM, WAS 
AN AREA THAT ESPECIALLY LENT ITSELF TO BIPARTISANSHIP, 
AND HE URGED THE DEPUTY MINISTER TO WORK IN THAT 
DIRECTION. 
 
¶7. (C) COMMENT: WE SUSPECT THAT CHINDORI-CHININGA MAY BE 
DISSEMBLING ON THE GENERATIONAL DIVIDE THAT EXISTS IN 
THE PARTY AND DOWN PLAYING ITS AMBITION TO WREST CONTROL 
OF THE REINS OF POWER FROM THE OLD GUARD.  AT THE MOMENT 
THERE IS LITTLE HEAD ROOM FOR THIS GROUP.  END COMMENT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  06120  02 OF 02  311119Z 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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