O 231346Z OCT 00
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4650
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 004016 
 
DEPT FOR NEA AND SMEC 
PARIS FOR WIENER/O'FRIEL; LONDON FOR SUTPHIN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/07 
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE SY
SUBJECT:  SLOUCHING TOWARD THE GRAND SERAIL (II) -- 
          SYRIA CLOSES THE DEAL; HARIRI APPOINTMENT 
          AS PM EXPECTED IMMINENTLY 
 
REFS: A) BEIRUT 3914, B) BEIRUT 3962 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR DAVID M. SATTERFIELD. REASON 
1.5 B AND D. 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  FORMER PM HARIRI IS EXPECTED TO BE 
NAMED VERY SHORTLY AS LEBANON'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER, 
WITH A NEW CABINET PRESENTED FOR PARLIAMENTARY APPROVAL 
WITHIN THE WEEK.  THE GREEN LIGHT FOR HARIRI'S 
APPOINTMENT WAS GIVEN BY SYRIA FOLLOWING EXTENSIVE 
CONSULTATIONS IN CAIRO AND HERE OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH 
ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIOS AND 
CANDIDATES AGREED UPON.  SYRIAN PRESIDENT BASHAR IS 
REPORTED TO HAVE PROVIDED OVERALL POLITICAL BLESSING TO 
THE DEAL AND ITS SELLING TO LEBANESE PRESIDENT LAHOUD, 
WHILE SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE LEBANON BOSS KANAAN 
HANDLED THE DETAILS WITH HIS LEBANESE COUNTERPART JAMIL 
AL-SAYYID.  WHILE SOME KEY PORTFOLIOS -- NOTABLY FINANCE 
-- REMAIN IN SUSPENSE BETWEEN HARIRI, LAHOUD AND SPEAKER 
BERRI, THE OUTLINES OF A NEW GOVERNMENT NOW APPEAR SET. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------- 
HARIRI GETS THE SYRIAN NOD 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) OUTGOING PM HOSS MET WITH AMBASSADOR OCTOBER 23 
TO DISCUSS LEBANESE-SYRIAN MEETINGS DURING THE COURSE OF 
THE CAIRO ARAB SUMMIT AND AGREEMENT REACHED ON 
COMPOSITION OF THE NEXT LEBANESE GOVERNMENT (OTHER 
TOPICS SEPTEL).  A VISIBLY RELAXED AND UNUSUALLY VOLUBLE 
PM HOSS TOLD AMBASSADOR THAT PRESS REPORTING WAS 
CORRECT; FORMER PM HARIRI WOULD BE NAMED AS HIS 
SUCCESSOR EVENING OCTOBER 23/MORNING OCTOBER 24, 
FOLLOWING PRO-FORMA CONSULTATIONS BY LAHOUD WITH THE 
PARLIAMENT.  (NOTE:  AT TIME OF DRAFTING, HARIRI HAD 
RECEIVED THE ENDORSEMENT OF 87 DEPUTIES (128 TOTAL). 
THE HIZBALLAH BLOC REFUSED TO BACK ANY CANDIDATE AND ARE 
NOW WIDELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE CABINET.  END 
NOTE.)  WHILE LAHOUD HAD INDEED ATTEMPTED (REF A) TO 
DEFER THE DECISION AS LONG AS POSSIBLE, HOSS SAID THAT 
BASHAR AL-ASAD HAD BROUGHT MATTERS TO A HEAD IN CAIRO, 
PARALLELING SETS OF MEETINGS OVER THE WEEKEND HERE 
BETWEEN SYRIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE LEBANON HEAD GHAZI 
KANAAN AND PM HARIRI/DRUZE LEADER JUMBLATT/SPEAKER NABIH 
BERRI. 
 
¶3. (C) HOSS SAID THAT BASHAR'S ROLE WAS NOT IN THE 
DETAILS -- "HE HAS NO IDEA WHO MOST OF THE NEXT CABINET 
APPOINTEES ARE" -- BUT IN GIVING HIS BLESSING TO THE 
BROAD OUTLINES OF THE GOVERNMENT AND SELLING THE DEAL TO 
LAHOUD.  THE SPECIFICS ON NAMES AND PORTFOLIOS HAD BEEN 
MANAGED, HOSS SAID, BY LEBANESE GENERAL SECURITY CHIEF 
JAMIL AL-SAYYID (IN CAIRO WITH LAHOUD) AND KANAAN. 
WHILE KAANAN WORKED THE PLAYERS ON THE GROUND IN 
LEBANON, SYRIAN VP KHADDAM AND FM SHARA DEALT DIRECTLY 
WITH AL-SAYYID TO PRESENT A NEAR-FINAL PACKAGE TO 
LAHOUD.  COMMENTING ON KHADDAM'S ROLE, HOSS EXPLAINED 
THAT BASHAR WAS CONCERNED THAT HARIRI WOULD ATTEMPT TO 
USE HIS "TRADITIONAL SYRIAN ALLIES" (READ KHADDAM AND 
FORMER COS SHIHABI) TO MANEUVER FOR GREATER FREEDOM OF 
ACTION.  BASHAR HAD THEREFORE BROUGHT KHADDAM VISIBLY 
INTO THE PROCESS OF DETERMINING THE NEW LEBANESE CABINET 
AT HIS AND KAANAN'S SIDE, "SO HARIRI WOULD UNDERSTAND 
THAT HE CANNOT PLAY ALTERNATE CHANNELS." 
 
----------------------------------------- 
FINANCE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS STILL IN PLAY 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) COMMENTING ON THE COMPOSITION OF THE NEXT 
CABINET, HOSS SAID THAT NEITHER HARIRI NOR LAHOUD GOT 
EVERYTHING (OR EVERYONE) THEY WANTED, BUT ON BALANCE THE 
GOVERNMENT "SHOULD PROVE GENERALLY HOMOGENEOUS."  THAT 
SAID, SOME SIGNIFICANT ISSUES REMAINED IN SUSPENSE.  IN 
PARTICULAR, HARIRI WAS INSISTING ON THE RIGHT TO APPOINT 
HIS CANDIDATE (ECONOMIC CONSULTANT BASIL FLEIHAN) AS 
MINISTER OF STATE FOR FINANCE AND BERRI WAS PUSHING FOR 
THE JOB TO GO TO A SHIA.  HARIRI HIMSELF WOULD BE 
FINANCE MINISTER, AS IN HIS LAST GOVERNMENT.   LAHOUD 
OBJECTED TO HARIRI OR BERRI PLACING THEIR LOYALIST IN 
THE FINANCE MINSTATE POST, AND THE SYRIANS -- HOSS 
CLAIMED -- HAD NOT SETTLED THE ISSUE.  THE OTHER MAJOR 
UNRESOLVED PORTFOLIO WAS FOREIGN AFFAIRS.  HOSS SAID 
THAT A FORMER CAREER DIPLOMAT AND BERRI SUPPORTER, 
MAHMOUD HAMMOUD (NOW RETIRED; LAST POST WAS AMBASSADOR 
TO LONDON), WAS THE PRIME SHIA CANDIDATE -- BUT IT WAS 
STILL A MARGINAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE MARONITES (BALKING 
AT HAVING TO SETTLE FOR THE MEANINGLESS DEFENSE 
MINISTRY) WOULD WIND UP WITH JOB. 
 
------------------------------ 
ONE MURR OUT; ANOTHER MURR IN? 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) CONTRADICTING EARLIER INDICATIONS (REF B), 
PRESENT DEPUTY PM AND INTERIOR MINISTER MICHEL MURR 
APPEARS TO BE OUT OF THE NEXT GOVERNMENT, REPLACED -- IN 
THE BEST LEBANESE TRADITION -- BY HIS SON, ELIAS.  HOSS 
SAID THAT HARIRI INSISTED ON OUSTING MURR SENIOR; THE 
SYRIANS, HOWEVER, BACKED MURR'S DEMAND FOR COMPENSATION 
AND HAD AGREED TO LAHOUD'S REQUEST THAT MURR THE YOUNGER 
(LAHOUD'S SON-IN-LAW AND ADVISOR) TAKE HIS FATHER'S 
PLACE AT THE INTERIOR MINISTRY.  WHILE THIS RESOLVED THE 
MURR ISSUE, HOSS NOTED THAT IT CREATED A NEW PROBLEM FOR 
BASHAR ALLY (AND 2004 PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL) SULEIMAN 
FRANJIYEH, JR.  FRANJIYEH HAD COVETED INTERIOR AND WOULD 
NOW, IT APPEARED, HAVE TO BE SATISFIED WITH A LESSER 
POST -- POSSIBLY A RETURN TO THE HEALTH MINISTRY. 
REPLACING MURR AS DEPUTY PM WOULD BE NEWLY-ELECTED 
DEPUTY AND MULTI-MILLIONAIRE ISSAM FARES. 
 
-------------------------- 
BUT WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) REFLECTING ON THE PAST TWO YEARS, HOSS TOLD 
AMBASSADOR THAT HE RECOGNIZED POPULAR DISAPPOINTMENT 
THAT MORE COULD NOT HAVE BEEN ACCOMPLISHED BY HIS 
GOVERNMENT.  HOSS DOUBTED, HOWEVER, THAT HARIRI'S LUCK 
WOULD BE MUCH BETTER.  HOSS EXPECTED THAT, WHATEVER THE 
SHAPE OF THE NEW CABINET, LEBANON'S DESTRUCTIVE 
CONFESSIONAL AND SELF-SERVING PERSONAL POLITICS WOULD 
ASSERT THEMSELVES AND THWART "EVEN HARIRI'S" EFFORTS. 
IN ADDITION, HOSS EXPRESSED HIS PERSONAL VIEW THAT 
LAHOUD AND HARIRI WOULD "BE AT EACH OTHER'S THROATS" 
WITHIN MONTHS -- LEADING TO CONTINUOUS SYRIAN 
INTERVENTION TO SETTLE DIFFERENCES.  IN THE END, HOSS 
SAID THAT HE BELIEVED DAMASCUS WAS NOT UNAWARE OF THE 
LIKELY NEGATIVE COURSE AHEAD.  IF HARIRI WAS BURNED, 
THROUGH FAILURE TO RESOLVE LEBANON'S ECONOMIC CRISIS, 
THEN "ALTERNATIVES" WOULD EMERGE TO TAKE HIS PLACE. 
HOSS SAW NAJIB MIQATI (CERTAIN TO BE IN THE NEW 
GOVERNMENT) AS THE MOST LIKELY REPLACEMENT CANDIDATE, 
BUT NOTED "MAYBE I WILL BE BACK SOMEDAY IN THIS OFFICE, 
TOO." 
 
--------------- 
WHO RUNS SYRIA? 
--------------- 
 
¶7. (C) AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE MEETING, HOSS ADVISOR 
MAHMASANI, WHO HAD BEEN WITH THE PM IN CAIRO, TOOK 
AMBASSADOR ASIDE.  MAHMASANI SAID THAT THE PM AND LAHOUD 
HAD BEEN "VERY SURPRISED" AT THE DEGREE TO WHICH BASHAR 
HAD NOT APPEARED "IN CHARGE" DURING THE MEETINGS WITH 
THE LEBANESE SIDE.  SHARA AND KHADDAM HAD DOMINATED THE 
SHOW, WITH BASHAR SHOWING ONLY A "VERY BASIC GRASP" OF 
LEBANESE PERSONALITIES AND ISSUES.  AMBASSADOR NOTED 
THAT THIS APPEARED VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH HAFIZ AL- 
ASAD'S MANNER OF DEALING WITH THE LEBANESE, LEAVING 
DETAILS TO SUBORDINATES.  MAHMASANI CONCEDED THE POINT, 
BUT REITERATED WHAT HE TERMED "OUR PERCEPTION" THAT THE 
OLD GUARD IN DAMASCUS, INCLUDING "THE MOST RETROGRADE 
ELEMENTS OF THE BA'ATH REGIONAL COMMAND," WERE RUNNING 
THE SHOW -- NOT BASHAR. 
 
SATTERFIELD