This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

291559Z Sep 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3192

PAGE 01        HARARE  05581  01 OF 03  291557Z 
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                  ------------------8BAEC1  291557Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7240
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 005581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/10 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT:  MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI CALLS ON AMBASSADOR 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05581  01 OF 03  291557Z 
(D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) IN A SEPTEMBER 29 MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR, 
MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI CALLED THE BOMBING OF MDC 
HEADQUARTERS AND SUBSEQUENT RAIDS ON ITS OFFICES 
"AMATEURISH."  THE GOZ HAS NO EVIDENCE AGAINST THE MDC 
LEADERSHIP BUT WOULD CONTINUE TO TRY TO PAINT THE PARTY 
AS A SUBVERVISE ORGANIZATION.  TSVANGIRAI AGREED THAT THE 
GOZ WAS TRYING TO USE THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT AS A 
SCAPEGOAT, BUT THE MDC WOULD TRY TO KEEP THE FOCUS ON THE 
GOVERNMENT'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC MISMANAGEMENT.  HE 
LAMENTED THAT ZANU-PF MPS HAVE BEEN UNWILLING TO 
COOPERATE WITH THE MDC ON ISSUES OF CRITICAL NATIONAL 
IMPORTANCE.  TSVANGIRAI EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE GOZ IS 
USING WAR VETERANS AS A RESERVE ARMY, INDICATED BY THEIR 
RECENT PLACEMENT UNDER THE AUTHORITY OF THE MINISTRY OF 
DEFENSE.  THE MDC PRESIDENT REPORTED THAT THE MDC IS 
PLANNING A RALLY IN HARARE ON SEPTEMBER 30 TO CELEBRATE 
THE PARTY'S ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY.  THE PARTY'S EXECUTIVE 
COMMITTEE WOULD MEET SUBSEQUENTLY TO DISCUSS ORGANIZING 
MASS ACTION.  THE AMBASSADOR URGED TSVANGIRAI TO EXERCISE 
RESTRAINT AND CAUTION WHEN ORGANIZING SUCH ACTIVITIES. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI CALLED ON 
AMBASSADOR MCDONALD ON SEPTEMBER 29.  HE WAS ACCOMPANIED 
BY MDC CHAIRMAN ISAAC MATONGO AND SENIOR ADVISOR GANDI 
MUDZINGWA.  THE AMBASSADOR WAS JOINED BY THE DCM AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05581  01 OF 03  291557Z 
POLOFF. 
 
BOMBING AND RAIDS OF MDC OFFICES 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID HE HAD REQUESTED THE MEETING 
BECAUSE HE WANTED TO TOUCH BASE AND TO RAISE SEVERAL 
SPECIFIC POINTS.  FIRST, HE SAID, THE RECENT BOMBING OF 
MDC HEADQUARTERS AND THE SUBSEQUENT SEARCH OF THE PARTY'S 
OFFICES HAD SIMPLY BEEN A PRETEXT TO GAIN ACCESS TO THE 
MDC'S RECORDS AND STRATEGIES.  TSVANGIRAI REPORTED THAT 
TWO PEOPLE HAD BEEN CHARGED IN THE CASE (NOTE: ON TWO 
COUNTS OF TERRORISM AND SABOTAGE UNDER THE LAW AND ORDER 
MAINTENANCE ACT. END NOTE) -- A SERVING POLICE OFFICER 
(ZACHARIA NKOMO) AND AN MDC SECURITY OFFICIAL (SOLOMON 
CHIKOWERO).  NKOMO, WHO ALLEGEDLY THREW THE GRENADE, HAD 
PARTICIPATED IN THE MDC'S YOUTH MOVEMENT BUT HAD NEVER 
DONE SECURITY WORK FOR THE PARTY, AS ALLEGED BY THE GOZ. 
THE GOZ, TSVANGIRAI INSISTED, WAS TRYING TO FABRICATE A 
LINKAGE BETWEEN NKOMO AND CHIKOWERO, WHOM IT HAS ACCUSED 
OF GIVING THE GRENADE TO NKOMO.  TSVANGIRAI SCOFFED AT 
THE CHARGES AGAINST CHIKOWERO, WHO HAS BEEN RELEASED ON 
BAIL, SAYING THE GOZ HAD NO EVIDENCE AGAINST HIM AND WAS 
TRUMPING UP CHARGES AGAINST HIM TO JUSTIFY FURTHER ACTION 
AGAINST THE OPPOSITION PARTY. 
 
¶4.  (C)  WHAT STEPS WAS THE GOZ PLANNING TO TAKE NEXT 
AGAINST THE MDC, THE AMBASSADOR ASKED?  TSVANGIRAI 
DESCRIBED THE WHOLE BOMBING INCIDENT AND SUBSEQUENT RAID 
AS "AMATEURISH."  THE GOZ IS TRYING TO PAINT THE MDC AS A 
SUBVERSIVE ORGANIZATION SO THAT IT CAN ARREST THE PARTY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  05581  01 OF 03  291557Z 
LEADERSHIP.  THEIR ATTEMPT HAS FAILED, AS THEY HAVE NO 
EVIDENCE, BUT THEY WILL TRY AGAIN.  ASKED BY THE 
AMBASSADOR WHETHER HE FEELS INCREASINGLY THREATENED, 
TSVANGIRAI REPLIED THAT SOME IN THE GOZ WOULD LOVE TO SEE 
 
SIPDIS 
HIM "DISAPPEAR FROM THE EARTH."  BRINGING THAT ABOUT, 
HOWEVER, WOULD BE VERY RISKY FOR THE GOZ.  THE MDC WANTS 
TO IMPROVE THE PROTECTION OF ITS LEADERSHIP, TSVANGIRAI 
NOTED, AND HE HOPED HIS SECURITY DIRECTOR COULD CONTINUE 
TO SEEK ADVICE FROM THE EMBASSY'S NEW REGIONAL SECURITY 
OFFICER, AS WAS DONE WITH HIS PREDECESSOR.  THE 
AMBASSADOR STATED THAT, WITHIN OUR LIMITATIONS, WE WOULD 
BE PLEASED TO CONTINUE TO ASSIST. 
 
ECONOMY 
------- 
 
¶5.  (C) TSVANGIRAI SAID ZIMBABWEANS ARE GETTING 
INCREASINGLY ANGRY ABOUT THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF 
THE ECONOMY.  THERE HAD BEEN SOME HOPE, HE NOTED, WHEN 
THE NEW CABINET WAS APPOINTED, BUT THE ECONOMY HAS ONLY 
WORSENED.  ALTHOUGH HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT FINANCE MINISTER 
SIMBA MAKONI AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY 
MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO WERE CAPABLE, THEY ARE PART OF A 
CORRUPT SYSTEM AND WILL NOT BE GIVEN THE NECESSARY 
AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS.  THE MDC HAD PROVIDED THAT 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3194 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  05581  02 OF 03  291557Z 
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        /010W 
                  ------------------8BAED5  291557Z /38 
O 291559Z SEP 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7241 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 005581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/10 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT:  MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI CALLS ON AMBASSADOR 
 
ASSESSMENT TO THE IMF TEAM DURING ITS RECENT VISIT. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05581  02 OF 03  291557Z 
 
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT 
---------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) TSVANGIRAI RAISED THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT 
(ZDA), NOTING THE GOZ'S ATTEMPTS TO PORTRAY IT AS A 
SANCTIONS BILL WHICH UNDERMINES THE COUNTRY'S 
SOVEREIGNTY.  THE AMBASSADOR AGREED THAT GOZ OFFICIALS 
HAVE TRIED TO USE THE ZDA AS A SCAPEGOAT FOR PROBLEMS OF 
THEIR OWN MAKING.  HE POINTED OUT THAT THE ZDA CONVEYS A 
VERY IMPORTANT MESSAGE WHICH THE GOZ SHOULD TAKE TO 
HEART.  ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI, THE MDC POSITION IS THAT 
THE BILL LAYS OUT, ACCURATELY, THE UNFORTUNATE CURRENT 
FACTS OF LIFE IN ZIMBABWE.  THE OPPOSITION PARTY, HE 
SAID, WOULD CONTINUE TO TRY TO KEEP THE FOCUS ON THE 
VIOLENCE IN THE COUNTRY AND THE GOVERNMENT'S REFUSAL TO 
RESTORE AND ENSURE THE RULE OF LAW. 
 
PARLIAMENT 
---------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  TSVANGIRAI NOTED THAT THE MDC MEMBERS OF 
PARLIAMENT HAD BEEN "RAISING LOTS OF VOICES," AND HE 
APPEALED FOR ASSISTANCE AIMED AT STRENGTHENING PARLIAMENT 
AS AN INSTITUTION.  THE AMBASSADOR DESCRIBED THE MDC'S 
WINNING OF 57 SEATS IN JUNE AS A VERY POSITIVE 
DEVELOPMENT BUT EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT IT MAY BE 
DIFFICULT FOR DEMOCRACY TO TAKE HOLD UNDER THE CURRENT 
SERIOUS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.  ZANU-PF, 
TSVANGIRAI REPLIED, HAS NOT ACCEPTED THE ELECTION RESULTS 
 
SIPDIS 
AND THAT IS WHY THE RULING PARTY CONTINUES TO BE SO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05581  02 OF 03  291557Z 
CONFRONTATIONAL.  HE LAMENTED THAT ZANU-PF MPS HAVE 
EVINCED NO WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE IN BIPARTISAN 
COOPERATION, EVEN ON ISSUES OF CRITICAL NATIONAL 
IMPORTANCE, SUCH AS LAND, ECONOMY, AND RESTORATION OF THE 
RULE OF LAW. 
 
WAR VETERANS 
------------ 
 
¶8.  (C) TSVANGIRAI CLAIMED THAT THE GOZ IS USING WAR 
VETERANS AS A RESERVE ARMY BECAUSE PRESIDENT MUGABE DOES 
NOT TRUST THE REGULAR ARMY TO DO HIS DIRTY WORK. 
THE RECENT PLACEMENT OF THE WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION 
UNDER THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, HE SAID, FORMALIZES THEIR 
MILITARY ROLE, WHICH WORRIES THE MDC A GREAT DEAL.  IN 
THE MEANTIME, THE LAWLESSNESS CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE 
COUNTRY AND THE GOZ IS MAKING NO ATTEMPT TO CONTROL IT. 
 
MASS ACTION 
----------- 
 
¶9.  (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED TSVANGIRAI TO COMMENT ON 
REPORTS OF THE MDC'S INTENTION TO ORGANIZE SOME SORT OF 
MASS ACTION.  THE PARTY, TSVANGIRAI REPLIED, IS PLANNING 
TO HOLD A MID-DAY RALLY IN HARARE'S RUFARO STADIUM ON 
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 (NOTE: MDC CHAIRMAN ISAAC MATONGO 
LATER TOLD DCM AND POLOFF THAT THE PARTY EXPECTS 50- 
60,000 PEOPLE FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY TO ATTEND.  END 
NOTE.)  THE PURPOSE OF THE RALLY IS TO CELEBRATE THE ONE- 
YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE PARTY'S FOUNDING, TO THANK MDC 
SUPPORTERS FOR THEIR COURAGE DURING THE PAST YEAR, AND TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  05581  02 OF 03  291557Z 
DISCUSS THE PARTY'S NEXT STEPS. 
 
¶10.  (C) ASKED WHETHER STAYAWAYS WOULD BE ORGANIZED AFTER 
THE RALLY, TSVANGIRAI SAID THEY WERE UNAVOIDABLE BUT THAT 
NOTHING HAD BEEN PLANNED.  THE AMBASSADOR URGED THE MDC 
TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT AND CAUTION IN PLANNING THE NEXT 
STEPS.  THE OPPOSITION PARTY, HE POINTED OUT, HAS BEEN 
SUCCESSFUL BECAUSE IT HAS MAINTAINED PUBLIC FOCUS ON 
ISSUES WHICH MATTER TO MOST ZIMBABWEANS, WITHOUT TRYING 
TO INFLAME AN ALREADY EXPLOSIVE SITUATION.  HE EXPRESSED 
HOPE THAT THE PARTY WOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE THIS APPROACH 
AND WOULD NOT GIVE THE GOVERNMENT AN EXCUSE TO CRACK 
DOWN.  TSVANGIRAI ACCEPTED THE POINT, BUT SAID HE WAS IN 
A DELICATE POSITION -- PEOPLE ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE 
ANGRY AND ARE DEMANDING ACTION, AS THE CURRENT COURSE OF 
EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE IS UNSUSTAINABLE.  THE SEPTEMBER 30 
RALLY, HE SAID, WOULD SET THE TONE FOR A SUBSEQUENT 
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEETING, WHICH WOULD DECIDE ON THE 
PARTY'S FUTURE ACTIONS. 
 
¶11.  (C) THE DCM ASKED FOR TSVANGIRAI'S ASSESSMENT OF 
PRESIDENT MUGABE'S CURRENT THINKING ON THE 2002 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -- IS HE CONSIDERING STEPPING DOWN 
OR WOULD HE SERVE OUT HIS TERM.  HE HAS SEEN NO 
INDICATION, TSVANGIRAI RESPONDED, THAT MUGABE WILL STEP 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3196 
 
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                  ------------------8BAEDD  291557Z /38 
O 291559Z SEP 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7242 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 005581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/10 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI MDC
SUBJECT:  MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI CALLS ON AMBASSADOR 
 
DOWN.  THE ZANU-PF EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS LATER THIS YEAR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05581  03 OF 03  291557Z 
WOULD FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE SUCCESSION ISSUE, AND WAS 
POTENTIALLY A WATERSHED EVENT.  HE THOUGHT MUGABE WOULD 
SERVE OUT HIS TERM BUT WOULD AGREE THAT SOMEONE ELSE -- 
UNDER HIS CONTROL OR INFLUENCE -- SHOULD CONTEST THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THE DCM EXPRESSED SOME SKEPTICISM 
ABOUT THAT SCENARIO, EMPHASIZING THAT A DECISION TO SERVE 
OUT HIS TERM BUT NOT TO STAND FOR REELECTION COULD MAKE 
MUGABE A LAME DUCK DURING HIS FINAL TWO YEARS IN OFFICE. 
ASKED WHETHER MUGABE IS GROOMING FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI 
AS HIS SUCCESSOR, TSVANGIRAI WAS DOUBTFUL, SAYING THAT 
MAKONI DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG POLITICAL BASE.  TSVANGIRAI 
AFFIRMED THAT MUGABE'S DEPARTURE IS INEVITABLE AND THAT 
HE MUST BE PERSUADED TO RETIRE.  THE PROBLEM IS THAT HE 
HAS NOTHING TO LOSE BY EMPLOYING CONFRONTATION AND WILL 
ONLY RESPOND TO PRESSURE.  THAT, TSVANGIRAI STRESSED, IS 
WHY MASS ACTION IS NECESSARY. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (C) TSVANGIRAI WAS SOMEWHAT CALMER THAN THE LAST 
TIME WE MET WITH HIM, BUT CLEARLY VERY WORRIED ABOUT 
RECENT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS.  IT WAS 
OBVIOUS FROM HIS COMMENTS THAT THE MDC IS FEELING INTENSE 
PRESSURE FROM ITS SUPPORTERS NATIONWIDE TO TAKE A FIRM 
STAND AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO TURN THE 
ECONOMY AROUND AND TO RESTORE THE RULE OF LAW.  HE IS 
UNDERSTANDABLY RELUCTANT, HOWEVER, TO ENCOURAGE LARGE- 
SCALE PROTESTS FOR FEAR OF UNLEASHING A GOVERNMENT 
CRACKDOWN THAT COULD TURN BLOODY.  AT THE SAME TIME, THE 
MDC RISKS LOSING LEGITIMACY IF IT DOES NOT RESPOND TO THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05581  03 OF 03  291557Z 
ANGER AND FRUSTRATION OF ITS CONSTITUENTS.  TSVANGIRAI 
AND THE REST OF THE MDC ARE CLEARLY BETWEEN A ROCK AND A 
HARD PLACE.  THE SEPTEMBER 30 RALLY, AND THE LIKELY 
DEMANDS FOR ACTION BY THOSE IN ATTENDANCE, WILL BE A 
SIGNIFICANT TEST OF THE MDC LEADERSHIP'S METTLE. 
MEANWHILE, WE HAVE ADVISED EMBASSY STAFF AND THE AMERICAN 
COMMUNITY TO AVOID THE AREA NEAR THE STADIUM ON SEPTEMBER 
¶30. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
>