This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

221133Z Sep 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5848

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                  ------------------88883A  221133Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7172
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 005352 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
ADDIS ABABA FOR LUKASAVICH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/05 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF 
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT PASSES 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM EARL IRVING, REASON 1.5 (B), (D) 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05352  01 OF 02  221133Z 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: ON SEPTEMBER 21, DCM AND POLOFF CALLED 
ON NEWLY APPOINTED DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, 
SPORTS, AND CULTURE AENEAS CHIGWEDERE.  THE DEPUTY 
MINISTER, A RELIABLE EMBASSY INTERLOCUTOR IN HIS EARLIER 
POSITIONS, WAS CHARACTERISTICALLY FRANK IN HIS 
DISCUSSION OF ZANU-PF POLITICS AND HIS WARNING OF DIRE 
CONSEQUENCES FOR ZIMBABWE IF THE U.S. CONGRESS PASSES 
THE ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA).  WHILE RECOGNIZING THE 
GOVERNMENT'S FAILINGS SINCE INDEPENDENCE, AND EVEN 
CALLING MUGABE A LIABILITY, CHIGWEDERE ARGUED THAT 
PASSAGE OF THE ZDA WOULD ONLY ACCELERATE CHAOS IN 
ZIMBABWE.  ALTHOUGH WE SEE CHIGWEDERE AS A REALIST, 
ZIMBABWE HAS MUCH FARTHER TO FALL BEFORE HIS WORST CASE 
SCENARIO IS REALIZED.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) ON SEPTEMBER 21, DCM AND POLOFF CALLED ON NEWLY 
APPOINTED DEPUTY MINISTER FOR EDUCATION, SPORTS, AND 
CULTURE AENEAS CHIGWEDERE.  CHIGWEDERE, A SECOND-TERM 
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, HAS BEEN A RELIABLE AND UNUSUALLY 
FRANK INTERLOCUTOR FOR THE EMBASSY.  DCM CONGRATULATED 
CHIGWEDERE ON HIS APPOINTMENT, AND THE DEPUTY MINISTER 
POINTED OUT THAT THE MINISTRY HAS AN ALL NEW LEADERSHIP, 
INCLUDING A NEW MINISTER AND PERMANENT SECRETARY. 
CHIGWEDERE WENT ON TO SAY BLUNTLY THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE 
HAD APPOINTED NEW BLOOD INTO THE MINISTRY TO IMPLEMENT 
REFORM, SINCE THE OLD LEADERSHIP WOULD HAVE JUST SLOWED 
THINGS DOWN. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05352  01 OF 02  221133Z 
 
ZDA TO UNLEASH MILITARY RESPONSE? 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) THE DEPUTY MINISTER QUICKLY TURNED TO THE 
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA) CURRENTLY BEFORE THE U.S. 
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.  (NOTE: THE ZDA, AS WRITTEN, 
WOULD END ALL BILATERAL ASSISTANCE TO THE GOZ.  HOWEVER, 
NEARLY ALL U.S. ASSISTANCE TO ZIMBABWE IS DISBURSED 
THROUGH NGOS AND WOULD BE EXEMPT.  END NOTE.)  DCM 
EXPLAINED THAT WE CANNOT PREDICT IF THE ZDA WILL PASS OR 
NOT.  THE EXECUTIVE DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER TO TURN OFF 
THE BILL, BUT IF IT IS NOT ACTED UPON BEFORE CONGRESS IS 
DUE TO ADJOURN ON OR ABOUT OCTOBER 6, THE ZDA WILL DIE 
IN COMMITTEE. 
 
¶4.  (C) CHIGWEDERE PREDICTED THAT IF THE ZDA DOES PASS, 
IT WILL LEAD TO AN ARMY TAKEOVER.  WHEN ASKED TO EXPLAIN 
HOW THIS MIGHT HAPPEN, CHIGWEDERE SAID THE ZDA WOULD 
ACCELERATE ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC DECLINE AND LEAD TO 
UNREST THAT WOULD FORCE THE ARMY TO INTERVENE. 
ZIMBABWEAN URBANITES WOULD NOT "LIFT A FINGER" TO OPPOSE 
THE MILITARY BECAUSE OF THE MEMORY OF THE RECENT 
ELECTIONS AND THE MATABELELAND MASSACRES OF THE 1980S, 
AND ZIMBABWE WOULD BE STUCK WITH A MILITARY GOVERNMENT 
FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS.  THERE IS NO DOUBT OF THE 
GOVERNMENT'S FAILURES SINCE INDEPENDENCE, CHIGWEDERE 
OPINED, BUT THE MILITARY, POLICE, AND WAR VETERANS WOULD 
NEVER PERMIT A GOVERNMENT THAT WAS NOT SYMPATHETIC TO 
THEIR CAUSE.  CHIGWEDERE ADDED THAT THE MILITARY WOULD 
NEVER SUPPORT TSVANGIRAI AS PRESIDENT SHOULD HE COME TO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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POWER IN SOME KIND OF POPULAR REVOLUTION, BUT WAS MORE 
VAGUE WHEN ASKED IF THE MILITARY WOULD SUPPORT A 
LEGITIMATELY ELECTED TSVANGIRAI. 
 
NEW DEAL ON LAND? 
----------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) ON THE LAND ISSUE, CHIGWEDERE REPORTED THAT THE 
GOZ IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS' UNION 
(CFU) THROUGH BACK CHANNELS TO OBTAIN SEVERAL HUNDRED 
FARMS AND TO PAY FOR THEM THROUGH A TRUST FUND.  THE 
DEPUTY MINISTER SAID THE GOVERNMENT IS ALSO IN TOUCH 
WITH THE BRITISH ON THIS ISSUE, AND CLAIMED THEY SUPPORT 
THE FACE-SAVING IDEA OF A DONOR-FUNDED TRUST FUND TO 
BREAK THE LAND REFORM IMPASSE.  ZIMBABWE AND THE U.K. 
HAVE BEEN SO AT ODDS OVER LAND REFORM THAT NEITHER IS 
PUBLICLY WILLING TO SWALLOW THEIR PRIDE.  CHIGWEDERE 
OFFERED THAT IT IS NOT GOVERNMENT POLICY TO EXPEL ALL 
WHITE FARMERS FROM THEIR LAND--THE MOST PRODUCTIVE FARMS 
IN MASHONALAND WOULD BE EXEMPTED.  ON THE OTHER HAND, IT 
IS GOVERNMENT POLICY, HE STATED BLUNTLY, TO HARASS 
FARMERS INTO SURRENDERING LARGE TRACTS OF LAND BORDERING 
COMMUNAL AREAS BY PERMITTING COMMUNAL FARMERS TO CUT 
DOWN TREES, STEAL WIRE, OR OCCUPY THE LAND OUTRIGHT. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5849 
 
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INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00 
      SP-00    IRM-00   SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /006W 
                  ------------------888844  221133Z /38 
O 221133Z SEP 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7173 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 005352 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
ADDIS ABABA FOR LUKASAVICH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/05 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF MODERATE WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES IF 
ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY ACT PASSES 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  05352  02 OF 02  221133Z 
MUGABE SEEN AS LIABILITY IN ZANU-PF 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) CHIGWEDERE PROVIDED AN UNUSUALLY FRANK AND, IN 
OUR JUDGMENT, ACCURATE DESCRIPTION OF THE CURRENT STATE 
OF ZANU-PF POLITICS.  HE FLAT-OUT STATED THAT MUGABE HAS 
BECOME A LIABILITY FOR THE PARTY, AND THE SOONER HE 
RETIRES, THE BETTER.  IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR HIM 
TO DO SO, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IT IS NOT IN THE AFRICAN 
TRADITION FOR CHIEFS TO SIMPLY STEP ASIDE AND BECOME 
"ORDINARY MEN."  ONLY GOD CAN RETIRE A CHIEF, CHIGWEDERE 
ADDED.  HOWEVER, MUGABE HAS BEEN MISLED BY HIS CIRCLE OF 
SYCOPHANTS, WHO, AS IN ANOTHER AFRICAN TRADITION, ONLY 
WISH TO PLEASE THEIR CHIEF AND ARE LOATH TO SAY OR DO 
ANYTHING THAT WOULD UPSET HIM.  THIS HAS LED TO AN IVORY 
TOWER SYNDROME IN WHICH MUGABE DOES NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND 
THE DEPTH OF DISCONTENT IN THE COUNTRY.  WHEN ASKED IF 
THERE IS ANYONE WHO COULD SUCCEED MUGABE, THE DEPUTY 
MINISTER SAID ONLY FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI WOULD COME 
CLOSE TO FILLING HIS SHOES, AS MUGABE'S INNER CIRCLE HAD 
BEEN REJECTED BY THE PEOPLE IN THE JUNE 24-25 ELECTION. 
MAKONI, HOWEVER, DOES NOT HAVE A BROAD BASE OF SUPPORT 
SINCE MOST OF THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN 
PERMITTED TO ADVANCE IN THE PARTY.  HE DID NOT SEE ANY 
GOOD PROSPECTS FOR YOUNG BLOOD TO FILTER UP THE PARTY 
HIERARCHY SO LONG AS THE OLD GUARD REMAIN FIRMLY 
ENTRENCHED. 
 
¶7.  (C) COMMENT: A COMMITTED AFRICANIST, CHIGWEDERE IS, 
IN ZANU-PF TERMS, SOMEONE WE WOULD DESCRIBE AS A 
MODERATE.  UNLIKE MOST OF MUGABE'S CABINET, HE IS KNOWN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  05352  02 OF 02  221133Z 
FOR TELLING IT LIKE IT IS, BUT HIS PREDICTION THAT A 
MILITARY TAKEOVER IS IN THE WINGS IF THE ZDA PASSES IS 
FARFETCHED.  HIS ARGUMENT CONTAINED FEW SPECIFICS, BUT 
PROBABLY REFLECTS A GROWING REALIZATION IN ZANU-PF THAT 
THE GOZ IS INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, BOTH AT HOME AND 
ABROAD.  WHAT LITTLE POPULAR SUPPORT ZANU-PF'S 
LEADERSHIP HAS LEFT IS STEADILY ERODING, INSIDE AND 
OUTSIDE THE PARTY.  CHIGWEDERE'S APPEAL TO HALT PASSAGE 
OF THE ZDA BASED ON AN IMMINENT MILITARY COUP TRUMPETS 
ZANU-PF'S GROWING DESPERATION.  IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT 
PASSAGE OF THE ZDA WOULD HAVE ANY PRACTICAL EFFECT ON 
ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMY, BUT IT COULD BECOME A CONVENIENT 
SCAPEGOAT FOR THE GOZ'S OWN GROSS MISMANAGEMENT OF THE 
ECONOMY.  IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT MUGABE WOULD 
PREFER TO HAVE THE ACT BECOME LAW SO HE COULD ADD THE 
U.S. TO HIS LONG LIST OF EXCUSES FOR HIS OWN 
GOVERNMENT'S POOR PERFORMANCE.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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