This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ9502

PAGE 01        HARARE  04810  01 OF 03  300750Z 
ACTION AID-00   

INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00  
      EB-00    EUR-00   UTED-00  FDRE-01  TEDE-00  IO-00    MMP-00   
      DCP-01   OIC-02   IRM-00   TRSE-00  SAS-00     /004W
                  ------------------7F8EA1  300750Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6963
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID FOR BHR/OFDA FOR B. SANFORD, M. ROGERS; BHR/FFP FOR 
C.W.T. HAGELMAN3, B. VOGLER; A/AID FOR R. MCCALL; DAA/AFR FOR 
¶V. NEWTON; AFR/SA FOR N. NEWMAN, C. PALMA; AFR/SD FOR W. 
WHELAN; NAIROBI FOR BHR/OFDA/ARO FOR G. GOTTLIEB; STATE FOR 
AF/S KRAFT; GABORONE FOR RCSA, R. MORTON; GENEVA PLEASE PASS 
TO UNOCHA; ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG, PRETORIA PASS TO AG MIN 
RHELM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR
SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWE'S POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS 
 
REF: HARARE 4085 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  THIS IS A USAID/BHR ACTION REQUEST (SEE PARA 
10.).  DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS - INCLUDING CYCLONE ELINE, 
THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS, THE GOVERNMENT'S 'FAST-TRACK' 
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE - ZIMBABWE IS 
FACING POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FOOD SECURITY PROBLEMS AND 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS OVER THE SHORT, MEDIUM AND 
LONGER-TERM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SITUATION, SEVERAL DONOR 
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY PLANNING INITIATIVES ARE 
NOW UNDERWAY.  MISSION REQUESTS BHR SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL 
EXPERTISE TO ASSIST IT IN ENGAGING IN THESE ACTIVITIES TO 
BETTER ASSESS THE PROBABILITY AND EXTENT OF THE EMERGING 
HUMANITARIAN THREAT IN ZIMBABWE, AND ANY REQUIRED MULTI-DONOR 
(INCLUDING U.S.G.) RESPONSE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. PROBLEM STATEMENT: SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS HAVE LED TO 
EMERGING POTENTIALLY SERIOUS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS IN 
ZIMBABWE.  THESE INCLUDE: 
 
--THE AFTERMATH OF CYCLONE ELINE:  DESPITE CONSIDERABLE 
RELIEF EFFORTS TO DATE, APPROXIMATELY 30,000 PEOPLE REMAIN 
DISPLACED WITHIN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZIMBABWE, WHERE SOME 
122,000 HECTARES OF CROPS WERE LOST OR SEVERELY AFFECTED AS A 
RESULT OF THE FEBRUARY FLOODS.  WITH THE IMPENDING RAINY 
SEASON, THERE IS AN URGENT NEED TO QUOTE SETTLE UNQUOTE THESE 
PEOPLE, AND PROVIDE THEM WITH MINIMUM SHELTER AND INPUT 
PACKAGES FOR THE UPCOMING AGRICULTURAL SEASON. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04810  01 OF 03  300750Z 
--THE IMPACT OF THE FARM INVASIONS AND THE GOVERNMENT'S 
ONGOING 'FAST-TRACK' RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM:  ALTHOUGH ACCURATE 
NUMBERS ARE DIFFICULT TO COME BY, ACCORDING TO THE GENERAL 
AGRICULTURAL AND PLANTATION WORKER'S UNION (GAPWUZ), SOME 
5,000-10,000 FARM WORKERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN DISPLACED DURING 
THE PAST SIX MONTHS OF UNREST IN THE COMMERCIAL FARMING 
AREAS.  UNDER ONGOING GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ACQUIRE 804 FARMS, 
AS MANY AS 45,000 WORKERS' JOBS ARE IN IMMEDIATE JEOPARDY 
(PRESUMABLY INCLUDING THE 5,000-10,000 NOTED ABOVE).  NOTE: 
THESE ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 55 WORKERS 
PER FARM (BASED ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE CURRENT LIST OF FARMS 
DESIGNATED FOR RESETTLEMENT).  THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF WORKERS 
PER FARM VARIES CONSIDERABLY BY AGRO-ECOLOGICAL REGION. 
HENCE, THESE AVERAGE ESTIMATES COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY, 
DEPENDING UPON THE FINAL GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE FARMS 
ACTUALLY RESETTLED.  END NOTE. WITH AN AVERAGE FAMILY SIZE OF 
5-6 PERSONS (WHICH ALSO VARIES BY REGION), THESE FIGURES 
TRANSLATE INTO BETWEEN 25,000-60,000 PEOPLE DISPLACED NOW, 
AND APPROXIMATELY 250,000-300,000 PEOPLE IN IMMEDIATE 
JEOPARDY. 
 
IN ADDITION, IF STATED GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ACQUIRE AND 
RESETTLE 3,000+ FARMS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR ARE REALIZED 
(A LOGISTICAL IMPOSSIBILITY IN OUR VIEW), THESE NUMBERS COULD 
SWELL SIGNIFICANTLY TO AS MANY AS 350,000 WORKERS (OR ALMOST 
1 MILLION PEOPLE).  ONLY AN ESTIMATED 30% OF THESE FARM 
WORKERS HAVE HOMES IN THE COMMUNAL LANDS.  THEREFORE, WITH NO 
STATED PLANS FOR THEIR INCLUSION INTO THE RESETTLEMENT 
PROGRAM, THERE IS NO PLACE FOR THESE DISPLACED PEOPLE TO GO. 
AS A RESULT, "THEY ARE JUST WANDERING ABOUT" (GAPWUZ).  AN 
ADDITIONAL ESTIMATED 40,000-60,000 FARM WORKERS AND CASUAL 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04810  01 OF 03  300750Z 
LABORERS ARE FACING REDUCED OR NO PAY AS A RESULT OF REDUCED 
WORK OPPORTUNITIES DUE TO THE DISRUPTIONS TO FARMING CAUSED 
BY THE OCCUPATIONS AND UNREST.  IN TRADITIONALLY FOOD 
INSECURE AREAS, CASUAL LABOR ALLOWED THE POOR TO OBTAIN CASH 
INCOME THAT HELPED PROVIDE A SAFETY NET IN THESE AREAS.  THIS 
COPING MECHANISM, TOO, HAS NOW BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO THE 
CONTINUED FARM INVASIONS. 
 
--THE PRE AND POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE:  THIS CONTINUING 
POLITICAL VIOLENCE HAS DISPLACED AN ESTIMATED 12,000 PEOPLE 
FROM LARGELY RURAL AND PERI-URBAN AREAS.  THERE ARE FEW 
SUPPORT STRUCTURES AVAILABLE FOR THESE PEOPLE AS WELL. 
 
--URBAN VULNERABILITY: ONGOING GOVERNMENT RETRENCHMENTS AND 
INCREASED BUSINESS CLOSURES DUE TO THE CURRENT MACRO-ECONOMIC 
CRISIS ARE RESULTING IN RISING UN-/UNDER-EMPLOYMENT BEYOND 
THE ESTIMATED 50% NATIONAL AVERAGE.  THIS YEAR ALONE, FOR 
EXAMPLE, 200,000 JOBS HAVE ALREADY BEEN LOST, WITH 400,000 
ADDITIONAL URBAN JOBS IN REAL JEOPARDY BY THE END THE YEAR. 
THIS SITUATION COULD WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY, IF CURRENT THREATS 
TO EXTEND THE INVASION/OCCUPATION TACTICS TO URBAN AND PERI- 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ9503 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z 
ACTION AID-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   UTED-00  FDRE-01  TEDE-00  IO-00    MMP-00 
      DCP-01   OIC-02   IRM-00   TRSE-00  SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------7F8EA7  300751Z /38 
P 300731Z AUG 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6964 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID FOR BHR/OFDA FOR B. SANFORD, M. ROGERS; BHR/FFP FOR 
C.W.T. HAGELMAN3, B. VOGLER; A/AID FOR R. MCCALL; DAA/AFR FOR 
¶V. NEWTON; AFR/SA FOR N. NEWMAN, C. PALMA; AFR/SD FOR W. 
WHELAN; NAIROBI FOR BHR/OFDA/ARO FOR G. GOTTLIEB; STATE FOR 
AF/S KRAFT; GABORONE FOR RCSA, R. MORTON; GENEVA PLEASE PASS 
TO UNOCHA; ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG, PRETORIA PASS TO AG MIN 
RHELM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z 
SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWE'S POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS 
 
URBAN BUSINESSES ARE PUT INTO EFFECT. 
 
AT THE SAME TIME, PRICES FOR ALL BASIC COMMODITIES ARE 
CONTINUING TO ESCALATE FUELED BY THE LONGSTANDING 50+% 
INFLATION RATE AND HARD CURRENCY SHORTAGES.  IN JULY, FOR 
EXAMPLE, THE PRICE OF PARAFFIN (USED FOR COOKING IN MOST 
URBAN HOUSEHOLDS) INCREASED BY 128%, PETROL - 25%, DIESEL - 
19%, COMMUTER (BUS) FARES - 25%, BREAD - 10% AND (IN AUGUST) 
MEAT - 25%.  MOREOVER, FURTHER SIGNIFICANT PRICE INCREASES 
ARE EXPECTED AS THE CONTINUING FUEL PRICE INCREASES FILTER 
THROUGH THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH THE RECENT 30% CURRENCY 
DEVALUATION AND SIGNIFICANT PENDING WHEAT SHORTAGES (SEE 
BELOW).  IN FACT, SOME ANALYSTS PREDICT THAT INFLATION MAY 
REACH AS HIGH AS 80% BY THE END OF THE YEAR.  THIS SITUATION 
IS INCREASING THE VULNERABILITY OF THOSE WHO ARE RELIANT ON 
MARKETS FOR THE PURCHASE OF THEIR BASIC SUPPLIES, IN MANY 
CASES, BEYOND ACCEPTABLE LIMITS, AS MANY FAMILIES CUT BACK TO 
TWO MEALS A DAY OR LESS. 
 
¶3. FOOD SECURITY:  AS A RESULT OF A 'BUMPER' MAIZE HARVEST 
THIS PAST YEAR, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS OF FARM WORKERS 
AND CYCLONE VICTIMS NOTED ABOVE (AND A FEW OTHER POOR-HARVEST 
AREAS), FOOD SECURITY IN RURAL AREAS IS GENERALLY GOOD FOR 
THIS YEAR.  MAIZE PRICES IN URBAN AREAS AND AT THE ZIMBABWE 
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXCHANGE (ZIMACE) HAVE ACTUALLY 
DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.  WITH AN EXPECTED 
SURPLUS OF SOME 600,000 MT THIS SEASON, THIS SITUATION IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO ALTER DRASTICALLY ANYTIME SOON. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z 
¶4. THE SITUATION IS NOT AS GOOD, HOWEVER, FOR WHEAT.  EVEN IN 
GOOD YEARS, ZIMBABWE IS AN IMPORTER OF HARD WHEAT FOR 
BLENDING WITH LOCAL PRODUCTION FOR MILLING PURPOSES AT ABOUT 
A 2:1/LOCAL:IMPORTED RATIO.  AS A RESULT OF FOREIGN CURRENCY 
SHORTAGES, HOWEVER, THE COUNTRY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO IMPORT 
ITS ADDITIONAL WHEAT REQUIREMENTS THIS YEAR (I.E., ONLY 
87,000 MT WAS IMPORTED LAST YEAR FOR A LOCAL HARVEST OF 
320,000 MT).  ACCORDING TO THE CEREALS PRODUCERS' ASSOCIATION 
(CPA) OF ZIMBABWE, THIS SITUATION HAS RESULTED IN AN 
ESTIMATED 50,000 -100,000 MT SHORTFALL FOR THIS SEASON (UNTIL 
THIS YEAR'S WINTER WHEAT IS HARVESTED IN OCTOBER) THROUGH THE 
MORE RAPID DEPLETION OF AVAILABLE LOCAL STOCKS THAN WOULD 
NORMALLY BE THE CASE (IF THE SUPPLEMENTARY IMPORTED WHEAT WAS 
AVAILABLE FOR BLENDING PURPOSES).  AS A RESULT, WHEAT PRICES 
ARE INCREASING, WITH FORWARD BIDS FOR OCTOBER WHEAT AT ZIMACE 
INCREASING BY AS MUCH AS 54% (FROM MAY PRICES). 
 
¶5. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AS LATE/REDUCED 
PLANTINGS DUE TO WET WEATHER AND THE FARM INVASIONS (THE BULK 
OF THE WINTER WHEAT IN ZIMBABWE IS GROWN ON THE PREDOMINANTLY 
WHITE-OWNED, IRRIGATED COMMERCIAL FARMS) IS EXPECTED TO 
RESULT IN A 20-30% REDUCTION IN THIS SEASON'S OCTOBER HARVEST 
(I.E., 250,000 MT VS. AN ESTIMATED 400,000+ MT ANNUAL 
CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENT).  WITH THE CONTINUING SEVERE 
FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ZIMBABWE WILL BE 
ABLE TO AFFORD THE IMPORTS REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THIS 
SIGNIFICANT PROJECTED WHEAT DEFICIT AS IT HAS IN RECENT 
YEARS.  WHILE SOME OF THIS SHORTFALL CAN/WILL BE MET THROUGH 
SUBSTITUTION OF RELATIVELY ABUNDANT MAIZE ('MEALIE MEAL') FOR 
WHEAT (BREAD) BY CONSUMERS, FLOUR AND BREAD PRICES ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ESCALATE OVER THE COMING MONTHS. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z 
THESE SHORTAGES/PRICE INCREASES WILL BE MOST SEVERELY FELT IN 
THE URBAN AREAS, WHERE CONSUMERS RELY MORE HEAVILY ON 
PURCHASED BREAD FOR THEIR DAILY FOOD SUPPLIES.  ALTHOUGH 
ESTIMATES VARY, THIS SITUATION COULD BECOME CRITICAL NEAR THE 
END OF THIS YEAR, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SERIOUS URBAN UNREST 
(SIMILAR TO THE FOOD RIOTS WHICH OCCURRED IN DECEMBER 1998). 
MOREOVER, OVER THE LONGER TERM, PROSPECTS ARE EVEN BLEAKER AS 
THE CONTINUING DISRUPTIONS AND GROWING DISLOCATIONS ON THE 
COMMERCIAL FARMS ARE EXPECTED TO SEVERELY IMPACT NEXT YEAR'S 
WHEAT HARVEST. 
 
¶6. WITH THE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE ALREADY AROUND 70%, MOST 
ZIMBABWEANS ARE NO LONGER ABLE TO ABSORB THIS SEEMINGLY 
INTERMINABLE STREAM OF NEGATIVE ECONOMIC SHOCKS.  AND, WITH 
EMPTY COFFERS AND LITTLE/NO PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL 
INTERNATIONAL CREDIT, GOVERNMENT APPEARS POWERLESS TO BE ABLE 
TO MOUNT ANY EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASINGLY DIRE 
HUMANITARIAN THREAT.  NOTE:  EVEN NOW, THE GRAIN MARKETING 
BOARD (GMB) - THE GOVERNMENT'S MONOPOLY GRAIN TRADING 
PARASTATAL - IS UNABLE TO SOURCE THE FUNDS NECESSARY TO 
PURCHASE LAST YEAR'S MAIZE CROP FROM FARMERS.  THIS DELAY IS 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ9505 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z 
ACTION AID-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00 
      EB-00    EUR-00   UTED-00  FDRE-01  TEDE-00  IO-00    MMP-00 
      DCP-01   OIC-02   IRM-00   TRSE-00  SAS-00     /004W 
                  ------------------7F8EB3  300751Z /38 
P 300731Z AUG 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6965 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID FOR BHR/OFDA FOR B. SANFORD, M. ROGERS; BHR/FFP FOR 
C.W.T. HAGELMAN3, B. VOGLER; A/AID FOR R. MCCALL; DAA/AFR FOR 
¶V. NEWTON; AFR/SA FOR N. NEWMAN, C. PALMA; AFR/SD FOR W. 
WHELAN; NAIROBI FOR BHR/OFDA/ARO FOR G. GOTTLIEB; STATE FOR 
AF/S KRAFT; GABORONE FOR RCSA, R. MORTON; GENEVA PLEASE PASS 
TO UNOCHA; ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG, PRETORIA PASS TO AG MIN 
RHELM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z 
SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWE'S POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS 
 
SERIOUSLY JEOPARDIZING NEXT YEAR'S AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AS 
THE RAINY SEASON APPROACHES AND FARMERS HAVE NO FUNDS/CREDIT 
TO PURCHASE THE NECESSARY INPUTS.  END NOTE. 
 
NOTE: OVER THE LONGER TERM, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN RECENT 
TIMES ZIMBABWE HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERE (MAJOR, WIDESPREAD) 
DROUGHTS EVERY SEVERAL YEARS.  WITH AT LEAST AVERAGE RAINFALL 
FOR THE PAST THREE SEASONS, THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER MAJOR 
DROUGHT EVENT ARE INCREASING EACH YEAR.  ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NO 
INFORMATION TO SUGGEST THAT A DROUGHT WILL OCCUR THIS YEAR, 
THE POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN EFFECTS OF SUCH AN EVENT WOULD BE 
MOST SERIOUS, INDEED, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE 
CURRENT WIDESPREAD TURMOIL IN THE COUNTRY'S FARMING SECTOR. 
THE PROVERBIAL STRAW ON THE CAMEL'S BACK COMES TO MIND HERE. 
END NOTE. 
 
¶7. MULTI-DONOR RESPONSE:  IN RESPONSE TO THIS EMERGING 
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, SEVERAL DONORS HAVE EMBARKED ON 
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY PLANNING ACTIVITIES. THE 
MOST PROMINENT OF THESE ACTIVITIES IS THE UNITED NATIONS 
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM'S (UNDP'S) INTER-AGENCY EFFORT AIMED AT 
CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN THE HEALTH AND NUTRITION, WATER AND 
SANITATION, FOOD (SECURITY) AND EDUCATION SECTORS.  ONGOING 
SINCE JULY, A FINAL REPORT ON THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN 
EARLY SEPTEMBER, AT WHICH TIME UNDP PLANS TO PRESENT THE PLAN 
- INCLUDING A SERIES OF AGENCY/SECTOR-SPECIFIC PROJECT 
PROPOSALS - TO OTHER DONORS FOR CONSIDERATION FOR SUPPORT. 
COMPLEMENTING THIS EFFORT, OVER THE MEDIUM-LONGER TERM, IS 
THE WORLD BANK'S (WB'S) PLANNED ENHANCED SOCIAL PROTECTION 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z 
PROGRAM AIMED AT ESTABLISHING A SOCIAL SAFETY NET FOR 
ZIMBABWE'S INCREASINGLY DESPERATE POPULATION. 
 
¶8. MISSION IS INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH THIS RAPIDLY 
DETERIORATING HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE.  FOR A 
VARIETY OF REASONS, ANY ASSISTANCE THE U.S.G. MIGHT OFFER IN 
ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE PART OF A CONCERTED MULTI- 
DONOR RESPONSE.  ACCORDINGLY, IT IS IN OUR BEST INTEREST TO 
PARTICIPATE IN AND ENSURE A USEFUL AND SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME TO 
THE CURRENT U.N. AND WB-SPONSORED CONTINGENCY PLANNING 
ACTIVITIES. 
 
¶9. IN ADDITION TO THE EMERGING HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, OTHER 
FACTORS - HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, THE RECENT VIOLENCE, FUEL 
SHORTAGES AND INCREASING POLITICAL COMPETITION - ARE CREATING 
A POTENTIALLY COMBUSTIBLE COMBINATION.  IN RESPONSE, THE 
U.S.G. SHOULD ENGAGE IN A PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION 
PLANNING EXERCISE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. 
 
¶10. ACTION REQUEST: BASED ON THE ABOVE, MISSION REQUESTS 
USAID BUREAU OF HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR) ASSISTANCE IN 
PROVIDING THE SERVICES OF ONE/TWO OFFICE OF FOREIGN DISASTER 
ASSISTANCE (OFDA) AND/OR FOOD FOR PEACE (FFP) EXPERTS TO 
ZIMBABWE FOR AN APPROXIMATE TWO WEEK PERIOD IN MID-SEPTEMBER 
TO FACILITATE OUR EFFECTIVE PARTICIPATION AND INPUT INTO 
ONGOING IN-COUNTRY EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY 
PLANNING ACTIVITIES. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE PURPOSE OF THIS 
ASSISTANCE WOULD BE TO: 1) REVIEW THE RESULTS OF CURRENT ON- 
GOING IN-COUNTRY EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY PLANNING 
ACTIVITIES (INCLUDING THE RESULTS OF THE CURRENT UNDP INTER- 
AGENCY CONTINGENCY PLANNING PROCESS AND THE STATUS OF THE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z 
WB'S ENHANCED SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAM ACTIVITY, THE ANNUAL 
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SERVICE (FEWS) VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 
EXPECTED IN EARLY SEPTEMBER, AS WELL AS SIMILAR ON-GOING 
CONTINGENCY PLANNING EFFORTS BY SEVERAL LOCALLY-BASED PRIVATE 
VOLUNTARY ORGANIZATIONS); 2) PROVIDE AN INDEPENDENT, 
REALISTIC ASSESSMENT FOR THE U.S.G. OF THE LIKELY SHORT AND 
LONGER-TERM HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS IN ZIMBABWE; 3) 
PROVIDE EXPERT U.S.G. INPUT INTO THE FINAL RECOMMENDED MULTI- 
DONOR RESPONSE TO THESE IDENTIFIED HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 
NEEDS; AND 4) (FOLLOWING DEPARTURE FROM POST) FACILITATE THE 
MISSION'S CONTINUING DIALOGUE ON THIS SUBJECT WITH CONCERNED 
USAID/W OFFICES AND OTHER AGENCIES (E.G., U.N. FOOD AND 
AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO), WFP, ETC.) FOR THE TIMELY 
PREPARATION AND INITIATION OF ANY AGREED UPON U.S.G. 
ASSISTANCE (AS PART OF A GREATER MULTI-DONOR EFFORT). 
MISSION WILL APPRECIATE YOUR TIMELY RESPONSE TO THIS REQUEST 
FOR ASSISTANCE. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
>