This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

151650Z Aug 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2487

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      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W
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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6844
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 004492 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/10 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT:  WINDOW DRESSING OR REFORM?  FOR NOW AT LEAST, 
INTELLECTUALS HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE IN A SPLIT 
CABINET 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04492  01 OF 02  151652Z 
REF:  HARARE 4362 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
¶1. (C) AFTER ONLY FOUR MEETINGS, ZIMBABWE'S CABINET 
APPEARS TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN FACTIONS:  ONE LED BY 
INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO AND THE 
OTHER LED BY FINANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MINISTER 
SIMBA MAKONI AND INDUSTRY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE 
MINISTER NKOSANA MOYO.  THESE LATTER INDIVIDUALS HAVE 
EMERGED AS THE CABINET'S MORE MODERATE, OBJECTIVE AND 
PERHAPS MORE INTELLECTUAL OR AT LEAST PRAGMATIC LEADERS, 
WHILE ITS OTHER MEMBERS HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED THE SAME 
ABILITY TO TAKE STOCK OF THE FUTURE OR ARTICULATE 
POSITIONS.  JONATHAN MOYO LEADS THE ANTI-WEST GROUP WHO 
ARE PROPONENTS OF THE ACCELERATED LAND REFORM PROGRAM, 
THE DONORS AND CONSEQUENCES BE DAMNED.  IN THAT GROUP WE 
WOULD PLACE FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE, AND 
LOCAL GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING 
MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO, WHO IS ALSO THE LEADER OF THE 
INTER-MINISTERIAL GROUP RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPLEMENTING THE 
FAST TRACK LAND RESETTLEMENT EXERCISE.  THE OTHER 
FACTION IS WHAT ONE MIGHT LOOSELY TERM THE PRAGMATISTS, 
WHO WANT TO TURN THE ECONOMY AROUND AND WOULD BE WILLING 
TO COMPROMISE WITH THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR 
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE ON CERTAIN ISSUES OF NATIONAL 
SIGNIFICANCE.  WHILE IN THE MINORITY, WE WOULD PLACE IN 
THE GROUP HIGHER EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY MINISTER 
HERBERT MURERWA. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04492  01 OF 02  151652Z 
¶2.  (C)  OF GREATER INTEREST TO US IS HOW THE MAKONI 
SCHOOL OF THOUGHT WILL FARE.  AT THIS EARLY STAGE, 
PRESIDENT MUGABE APPEARS TO HAVE ALLOWED THE CABINET 
RIFT TO EMERGE, WHILE GIVING NO OVERT SIGN WITH RESPECT 
TO WHICH SIDE HE ALIGNS HIMSELF.  HE SEEMS HAPPY TO PLAY 
THE ONE OFF AGAINST THE OTHER, IN THE TRADITION OF AN 
AFRICAN CHIEF.  MAKONI, FOR HIS PART, IS ALSO MOVING 
QUICKLY.  ZIMBABWE'S MINISTRIES ARE ALREADY FEELING HIS 
REDUCED AND PENNY PINCHING DISBURSEMENTS.  THE FINANCE 
MINISTER IS OVERWHELMING THE CABINET WITH THE NUMBER OF 
PROPOSALS HE PUTS TO IT EVERY SESSION.  AT THE AUGUST 15 
MEETING, MAKONI WAS SCHEDULED TO PRESENT A NUMBER OF 
PROPOSALS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING EXPENDITURES BY 
MINISTERS ON PERKS.  OBVIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE MET WITH 
SOME RESISTANCE.  ADDITIONALLY, HE IS ALSO SAID TO BE 
LOOKING FOR AN ENTRY POINT ON THE LAND QUESTION TO WREST 
ITS OWNERSHIP AWAY FROM THE HARDLINERS. 
 
¶3.  (C)  MUGABE, AT LEAST INITIALLY, SEEMS TO HAVE GIVEN 
MAKONI SOME LEASH TO PROPOSE PROGRAMS TO REVERSE 
ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC SLIDE.  RUMORS CONTINUE TO MULTIPLY 
THAT MUGABE WILL ELEVATE HIS FINANCE MINISTER TO THE 
POLITBURO.  THE PRESIDENT IS PLAYING AN IMPORTANT CARD 
BY INCREASING THE AUTHORITY AND CLOUT OF THIS APPEALING 
AND CAPABLE CABINET MEMBER.  AGAINST WHOM AND FOR WHAT 
REASON REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT IN SO DOING, HE WILL 
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE HIS CONTROL OVER HIS FINANCE 
MINISTER.  AMONG POSSIBLE SCENARIOS, MUGABE MAY BE 
CONSIDERING MAKONI AS HIS SUCCESSOR. 
 
¶4.  (C)  THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENT REMAINS AN ENIGMATIC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04492  01 OF 02  151652Z 
IF NOT MERCURIAL FIGURE.  HE HAS NOT LOST HIS EDGE AS A 
STRATEGIC THINKER AND IS PROMOTING MAKONI FOR A REASON, 
PROBABLY AS A TRUMP CARD TO ENSURE THAT ZANU-PF WINS THE 
PRESIDENCY IN 2002.  MUGABE WOULD NEED THAT OUTCOME FOR 
HIS OWN PROTECTION, IF HE CHOOSES NOT TO RUN.  AT THE 
SAME TIME, THE PRESIDENT REMAINS CONSISTENT: HE 
CONTINUES TO HAVE NEAR TOTAL DISREGARD FOR THE ECONOMY. 
HIS DISCOURSE FOLLOWS A POLITICAL/MILITARY LOGIC, AND IN 
HIS MIND, IT IS CORRECT FOR WHAT HE WANTS: POWER AND THE 
ASSETS OF THE WHITE COMMERCIAL FARMING COMMUNITY.  THAT 
THE DESTRUCTION OF COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE SOUNDS 
MONSTROUS IN LIGHT OF THE POPULAR FRUSTRATION WITH THE 
COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC DOWNFALL IS OF LITTLE CONCERN TO HIM. 
HE DOES UNDERSTAND POLITICAL ECONOMY: A ZANU-PF 
ELECTORAL VICTORY IN 2002 WOULD BE CLINCHED IF THE 
COUNTRY'S ECONOMY WERE TO START EXHIBITING SIGNS OF A 
POSITIVE GROWTH RATE SOMETIME LATER THIS YEAR AND INTO 
NEXT.  THAT WOULD BE AN ASTOUNDING PERFORMANCE FOR SIMBA 
MAKONI, POSSIBLE IF THE PRESIDENT WERE TO STOP TALKING 
AND ABANDON HIS CURRENT TACK ON LAND REFORM.  HAVE WE 
SEEN ANY SIGNS OF THIS?  NO.  IS IT POSSIBLE?  WE DOUBT 
IT.  WHILE WE WISH MAKONI WELL, AND HAVE HIGH REGARD FOR 
HIM, HIS EFFORTS MAY AMOUNT TO TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE, AND 
HE MAY NOT LAST LONG.  IN FACT, THE FAILURE OF SUCH AN 
INDIVIDUAL WOULD, WITHOUT DOUBT, BE POINTED TO BY MUGABE 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ2489 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  04492  02 OF 02  151652Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CEA-01   CIAE-00  COME-00 
      CTME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00 
      EUR-00   EXIM-01  E-00     FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00 
      H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   ITC-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------7A1E41  151652Z /38 
P 151650Z AUG 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6845 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 004492 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/10 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON ZI
SUBJECT:  WINDOW DRESSING OR REFORM?  FOR NOW AT LEAST, 
INTELLECTUALS HAVE TAKEN THE INITIATIVE IN A SPLIT 
CABINET 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04492  02 OF 02  151652Z 
AS YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF HOW AND WHY MARKET-REFORMERS 
WITH WESTERN IDEALS JUST CANNOT WORK IN ZIMBABWE.  IN 
HIS POST-MORTEM STATEMENTS, MUGABE WOULD AGAIN BEAT THE 
DRUMS OF HIS OWN PERSONAL IDEOLOGY AND PHILOSOPHY, THE 
REST OF THE WORLD BE DAMNED. 
 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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