This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

241513Z Jul 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1186

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                  ------------------71BECB  241511Z /38    
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6676
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RWANDA COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 004061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/10 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI CG
SUBJECT:  S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY S/E HOWARD WOLPE.  REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04061  01 OF 02  241510Z 
(D). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE GREAT LAKES HOWARD 
WOLPE, ACCOMPANIED BY SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST 
AND POLOFFS, MET WITH NEWLY REAPPOINTED FOREIGN MINISTER 
STANISLAUS MUDENGE AND UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID 
HAMADZIRIPI ON 19 JULY.  WOLPE AND PRENDERGAST EXPRESSED 
USG CONCERNS ABOUT THE CONTINUED VIABILITY OF THE LUSAKA 
ACCORDS IF THE SIGNATORIES WERE TO ACQUIESCE TO KABILA'S 
REJECTION OF SIR KETUMILE MASIRE AS FACILITATOR.  IN 
ADDITION, WOLPE HIGHLIGHTED RECENT ACTION IN THE 
EQUATEUR REGION AND OBSTACLES PLACED BY DRC PRESIDENT 
LAURENT KABILA TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT AS ADDITIONAL 
WORRYING FACTORS.  HE PRESSED THE FM ON THE NEED FOR 
ZIMBABWE TO EXERT ALL POSSIBLE LEVERAGE ON KABILA TO 
ABANDON HIS REJECTION OF MASIRE, AND OFFERED SOME 
SUGGESTIONS ON HOW THAT MIGHT BE ACCOMPLISHED.  MUDENGE, 
WHILE AFFIRMING THE NEED FOR MASIRE TO BE RETAINED AS 
FACILITATOR, FAULTED MASIRE'S APPROACH, AND PROPOSED 
THAT MASIRE CONSULT CLOSELY, AND REGULARLY, WITH THE 
LUSAKA SIGNATORY MINISTERS MOST DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN 
NEGOTIATING THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT.  THE FM ALSO BLAMED 
THE FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR ON THE UGANDANS, AND SAID IT 
WAS PROVING EASIER TO WORK WITH PAUL KAGAME NOW THAT HE 
IS PRESIDENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C)  SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE GREAT LAKES HOWARD WOLPE 
MET JULY 19 WITH FOREIGN MINISTER STANISLAUS MUDENGE. 
WOLPE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AF SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN 
PRENDERGAST AND POLOFFS; MUDENGE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY 
UNDERSECRETARY FOR AFRICA DAVID HAMADZIRIPI.  WOLPE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04061  01 OF 02  241510Z 
EXPRESSED ANXIETY ABOUT THE LUSAKA PROCESS, WHICH IS 
"HANGING BY A THREAD."  HIS MISSION, HE STATED, WAS TO 
GET THE PULSE OF THE AFRICAN LEADERS ON HOW TO WORK 
TOGETHER TO REVIVE THE PROCESS AND TO PRESENT SOME IDEAS 
FOR MOVING THE BALL FORWARD.  THE FOREIGN MINISTER, 
CLEARLY TIRED FROM THE PAST MONTH'S PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS IN ZIMBABWE AND HIS RECENT TRIP TO LOME FOR 
THE OAU SUMMIT, SAID HE'D BEEN CONCENTRATING ON "OTHER 
THINGS" AND ASKED FOR A BRIEF RECAPITULATION OF THE 
CURRENT SITUATION OF DROC AND THE STATUS OF MASIRE, 
WHICH WOLPE PROVIDED. 
 
VIEWS ON MASIRE 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  WOLPE EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT REPORTS THAT 
NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD TOLD SEVERAL U.S. 
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS THAT MASIRE NO LONGER HAS THE 
SUPPORT OF KABILA'S SOUTHERN ALLIES, AND REITERATED THE 
USG STANCE THAT KABILA'S OPPOSITION TO MASIRE IS A FIG 
LEAF FOR HIS RESISTANCE TO THE INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE. 
TO ACQUIESCE TO KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE, HE 
CONTINUED, WOULD BE TO EFFECTIVELY ABANDON LUSAKA AND TO 
RESTART THE WAR.  HE DESCRIBED MASIRE'S EFFORTS TO PULL 
TOGETHER A SUPPORT TEAM MADE UP OF FRANCOPHONES WITH 
EXPERTISE IN THE CONGO.  WOLPE ALSO NOTED THAT THE OAU 
HAD RECENTLY ISSUED A STRONG STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR 
MASIRE.  THIS, HE SAID, COULD INCREASE THE LEGITIMACY OF 
THE FACILITATION EFFORT AND OFFER KABILA A WAY TO ACCEPT 
MASIRE WITHOUT LOSING FACE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04061  01 OF 02  241510Z 
¶4.  (C)  MUDENGE CLAIMED THAT THE CONCEPT OF A 
"FACILITATOR" IN THE LUSAKA PROCESS HAD BEEN HIS OWN 
IDEA, BUT NOTED THE DIFFICULTY OF MASIRE'S TASK.  HE 
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT MASIRE IS A "VERY WISE MAN," BUT SAID 
THAT THIS "RIVER (THE LUSAKA PROCESS) IS FULL OF 
CROCODILES."  WHILE PROFESSING "TREMENDOUS ADMIRATION" 
FOR MASIRE, MUDENGE EXPRESSED A NUMBER OF RESERVATIONS 
ABOUT THE WAY MASIRE AND HIS STAFF HAVE CONDUCTED 
THEMSELVES THUS FAR.  HE ASSERTED THAT THEY HAD FAILED 
TO SEEK ADVICE FROM THE VARIOUS PARTIES THAT WERE 
INTIMATELY INVOLVED IN CREATING THE LUSAKA ACCORDS, IN 
PARTICULAR ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA.  IT IS ONLY 
THROUGH DISCUSSIONS WITH THESE PEOPLE, WHO UNDERSTAND 
HOW HARD IT WAS TO GET THE COMPROMISES WROUGHT ON PAPER 
AND WHO HAD TO "FINESSE" THEIR WAY THROUGH EACH PARTY'S 
SENSITIVITIES, THAT MASIRE AND HIS TEAM CAN HOPE FOR 
SUCCESS.  MUDENGE REPEATED SEVERAL TIMES THAT MASIRE 
MUST MAKE CONTACT WITH BOTH SIDES OF THE DROC CONFLICT, 
AN EFFORT THAT'S "BEEN MISSING." 
 
¶5.  (C)  MUDENGE ALSO LAMENTED OTHER FACTORS PREVENTING 
THE SUCCESS OF THE FACILITATOR; AS AN EXAMPLE, HE SAID 
THAT MASIRE HAS BROUGHT IN A ZAMBIAN ASSOCIATED WITH 
FORMER PRESIDENT KAUNDA.  THIS IS VERY DISTURBING, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1188 
 
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      VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00     VCE-00 
      AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00 
      PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    SSO-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      PMB-00   DSCC-00  DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00 
        /008W 
                  ------------------71BED6  241511Z /38 
O 241513Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6677 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 004061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR A/S RICE AND PDAS POWELL 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/10 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI CG
SUBJECT:  S/E WOLPE MEETS WITH FM MUDENGE 
 
CONSIDERING THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ZAMBIANS' ROLE.  AS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  04061  02 OF 02  241511Z 
FOR KABILA'S INCREASING RELUCTANCE TO ACKNOWLEDGE ANY OF 
THE LUSAKA TENETS, MUDENGE ASSERTED THAT KABILA HAD HAD 
NO REAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE ACCORDS WHEN THEY WERE 
FIRST SIGNED; HE SAID THAT THE ONLY REASON KABILA HAD 
AGREED TO LUSAKA WAS THAT AN AIDE HAD GIVEN HIM AN 
INACCURATE INTERPRETATION OF ITS PROVISIONS.  NOW, WITH 
HIS POSITION STRENGTHENED BY HIS ALLIES, KABILA FEELS NO 
COMPULSION TO ALLOW MONUC TROOPS INTO HIS COUNTRY. 
 
FIGHTING IN EQUATEUR 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  WOLPE EXPRESSED USG CONCERN ABOUT CONTINUED 
MOVEMENT BY BOTH MLC'S AND KABILA'S TROOPS IN THE 
EQUATEUR REGION -- IN VIOLATION OF THE KAMPALA CEASEFIRE 
LINE - WHICH IS EXACERBATING THE STRAINS ON THE LUSAKA 
PROCESS.  MUDENGE, ASSERTING THAT SOME UGANDAN OFFICERS 
HAD BEEN CAPTURED IN THE EARLIER EQUATEUR FIGHTING, SAID 
THAT THE GOZ IS NOT WILLING TO ENTERTAIN THE NOTION THAT 
THE MLC, AND ITS LEADER, BEMBA, ARE ANYTHING BUT THE 
"MOUTHPIECE" OF THE UGANDANS.  WOLPE NOTED THAT THE USG 
HAD EARLIER COME DOWN HARD ON MUSEVENI AS WELL AS BEMBA, 
BUT THAT NOW IT WAS THE GOVERNMENT FORCES THAT WERE IN 
VIOLATION OF THE KAMPALA AGREEMENT. 
 
¶7.  (C)  THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAID HE SHARED WOLPE'S 
CONCERNS ABOUT THE EQUATEUR SITUATION.  HE ADDED THAT 
"OTHER PARTIES FOR VARIOUS REASONS DON'T WANT PEACE TO 
GO FORWARD," SPECIFICALLY CRITICIZING THE GOU FOR BEING 
"EVASIVE" ABOUT ITS COMMITMENT TO LUSAKA, AND 
QUESTIONING WHAT THE UGANDANS ARE UP TO.  IN CONTRAST, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  04061  02 OF 02  241511Z 
HE AVERRED, THE GOZ HAS MADE IT CLEAR THAT IT IS "NOT 
PREPARED TO COUNTENANCE ANY VIOLATION OF KAMPALA." 
 
MONUC 
----- 
 
¶8.  (C)  WOLPE NOTED WITH CONCERN THAT KABILA CONTINUES 
TO DENY MONUC FULL ACCESS, BY, FOR, EXAMPLE, INSISTING 
ON CLEARING ALL FLIGHTS.  STRESSING THAT BOTH THE MASIRE 
AND THE EQUATEUR ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED QUICKLY, 
WOLPE SAID THAT THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY HOPE FOR THE FULL 
DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC AND WITHDRAWAL OF CONGOLESE FORCES, 
IF THE GOVERNMENT IN KINSHASA IS NOT WILLING TO COMPLY 
WITH ALL ASPECTS OF LUSAKA DISARMAMENT.  THE CONGOLESE, 
HE SAID, HAVE LESS ENTHUSIASM FOR MONUC THAN THE 
EXTERNAL SIGNATORIES, ADDING THAT MONUC CANNOT CONTINUE 
TO BE DENIED FULL ACCESS TO THE CONGO.  WOLPE TOLD 
MUDENGE THAT AN EARLY MONUC DEPLOYMENT IN KISANGANI IS 
UNDER CONSIDERATION IN AN EFFORT NOT ONLY TO STABILIZE 
THE SITUATION IN THAT CITY, BUT ALSO AS A MEANS TO 
STRENGTHEN EXTERNAL SIGNATORY CONFIDENCE IN MONUC'S 
CAPABILITY AND SERIOUSNESS.  PRENDERGAST ADDED THAT THE 
USG GOAL IS TO MAKE THE SITUATION AS CONDUCIVE AS 
POSSIBLE TO MONUC DEPLOYMENT, SAYING THAT, GIVEN THE 
DEBACLE IN SIERRA LEONE, THE UN WANTS TO BE CERTAIN THAT 
THERE IS AN EFFECTIVE CEASE-FIRE IN PLACE, AND THAT 
MONUC OBSERVERS WILL BE UNIMPEDED IN THEIR EXECUTION OF 
THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES. 
 
¶9.  (C)  MUDENGE CONCURRED ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF 
DEPLOYING MONUC, BUT NOTED THAT KABILA IS BECOMING LESS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  04061  02 OF 02  241511Z 
CONVINCED THAT THIS IS IN HIS INTEREST.  WOLPE RESPONDED 
THAT THIS IS WHY THE GOZ'S ROLE IS SO IMPORTANT.  "YOUR 
LEVERAGE IS ABSOLUTELY VITAL," HE SAID.  MUDENGE 
RESPONDED THAT "LEVERAGE IS A DIMINISHING RESOURCE." 
STILL, WOLPE COUNTERED, KABILA IS ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT 
ON THE  ZIMBABWEANS.  WOLPE CLOSED THE MEETING BY ONCE 
MORE URGING MUDENGE AND THE GOZ TO EXERT ALL POSSIBLE 
PRESSURE ON KABILA TO PERMIT LUSAKA TO GO FORWARD, AS IT 
IS IN THE COMMON INTEREST OF ALL THE EXTERNAL STATES TO 
END THIS DEVASTATING CONFLICT. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  MUDENGE'S RESPONSE TO WOLPE'S ASSERTION THAT 
THE GOZ COULD TRULY INFLUENCE KABILA SINCE KABILA IS 
STILL TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON THE GOZ WAS A COY LAUGH.  HE 
SAID THEY WOULD BE DISCUSSING COURSE CORRECTIONS AND 
LEVERAGE AT THE UPCOMING POLITICAL COMMITTEE MEETING. 
HOWEVER, MUDENGE RECOGNIZED THAT ACQUIESCENCE TO 
KABILA'S REJECTION OF MASIRE COULD SOUND THE DEATH KNELL 
OF LUSAKA. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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