This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.



                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3086

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6643
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 003942 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL 
 
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
USAID FOR GAMBINO 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03942  01 OF 03  181827Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA 
WELILE NHLAPO 
 
REF: A) STATE 132954 
     B) STATE 135319 
 
CLASSIFIED BY SPECIAL ENVOY HOWARD WOLPE, REASONS 1.5(B) AND 
(D). 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY.  ACCORDING TO SAG DDG FOR AFRICA WELILE NHLAPO, 
CNDD/FDD REBEL LEADER JEAN BOSCO NDAYIKENGURUKIYE AND FNL REBEL 
LEADER KOSSAN KABURA NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ARUSHA PEACE PROCESS. 
WHILE 
SAG OFFICIALS AND FACILITATOR NELSON MANDELA DOUBT BOTH KOSSAN'S INTENT 
 AND LEADERSHIP ABILITY, THEY HAVE BEEN MORE FAVORABLY IMPRESSED 
WITH JEAN BOSCO'S WILLINGNESS TO ENTER INTO DIALOGUE.  MANDELA HAS 
URGED JEAN BOSCO TO DECLARE A UNILATERAL SUSPENSION OF ALL ARMED 
ACTION.  NHLAPO TOLD  SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE THAT MANDELA IS FRUSTRATED 
WITH THE "GAMES" THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES ARE PLAYING IN ARUSHA.  NHLAPO 
SUGGESTED THAT THE TIME WAS RIPE TO BRING TOGETHER THE KEY BURUNDIAN PA 
RTIES, WITH INTERNATIONAL ENVOYS IN THE WINGS TO EXERT PRESSURE AS NEED 
ED. 
 
¶2.  (C)  NHLAPO FIRMLY STATED THAT TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT FOR DROC 
NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR MASIRE WOULD BE TO GIVE THE CONGOLESE 
THE SIGNAL TO RETURN TO WAR.  SOUTH AFRICA HAS STRONGLY COUNSELED 
MLC LEADER BEMBA TO NOT ADVANCE TOWARD MBANDAKA.  S/E WOLPE SUGGESTED 
ANOTHER MEETING OF THE FIVE EXTERNAL PARTIES (ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03942  01 OF 03  181827Z 
NAMIBIA, UGANDA, AND RWANDA) SIMILAR TO THE VICTORIA FALLS MEETING 
AS A WAY TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR POLITICAL UNDERSTANDING AND TO DECIDE 
HOW BEST TO GET ALL OF THE CONGOLESE PARTIES TO COMPLY WITH LUSAKA. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
BURUNDI:  U.S. PERSPECTIVE 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  DURING A JULY 16 LUNCH, S/E WOLPE, WHO WAS ACCOMPANIED BY 
SPECIAL ADVISOR JOHN PRENDERGAST AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER), OUTLINED FOR 
DEPARTMENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL (DDG) FOR AFRICA, 
 
WELILE NHLAPO, USG CONCERNS REGARDING THE BURUNDI PEACE PROCESS.  S/E 
WOLPE INFORMED NHLAPO THAT HE AND PRENDERGAST WOULD BE MEETING WITH 
FACILITATOR NELSON MANDELA ON JULY 17, AND WOULD ANNOUNCE THE 
SUCCESSFUL DEPOSIT OF $US500,000 TO THE ARUSHA ACCOUNT, AND THE USG 
DECISION TO ALLOCATE AN ADDITIONAL $500,000, PENDING CONGRESSIONAL 
NOTIFICATION.  THE SPECIAL ENVOY STRESSED THAT, WHILE RELIEVED THAT 
MANDELA HAD DECIDED TO POSTPONE THE SIGNING OF THE ARUSHA PEACE ACCORD 
FROM JULY 20 TO AUGUST 28 (REF B), EVEN THE LATTER DATE WAS PREMATURE. 
 
AS WOLPE RECOUNTED, THE HISTORY OF THE RWANDAN AND SIERRA LEONE PEACE 
PROCESSES ILLUSTRATE THE NEED TO PROPERLY DEAL WITH ISSUES SUCH AS 
IMPUNITY AND AMNESTY, AND TO INSURE ALL KEY PLAYERS ARE AT THE TABLE. 
FURTHER, SAID THE SPECIAL ENVOY, THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES HAVE NOT YET 
REACHED AGREEMENT ON CRITICAL AREAS SUCH AS ARMED FORCES INTEGRATION, 
THE DEFINITION OF GENOCIDE, AND WHO WILL LEAD THE TRANSITION. 
 
¶4.  (C)  WHILE WOLPE STRESSED THAT MANDELA HAD ENGENDERED THE BELIEF 
AMONG THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES THAT AN AGREEMENT WAS FEASIBLE, AND HAD 
BROUGHT CORE ISSUES TO THE TABLE, THE SPECIAL ENVOY MAINTAINED THAT A 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  03942  01 OF 03  181827Z 
MORE REASONABLE GOAL WAS TO SECURE A PEACE AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE 
CALENDAR YEAR.  WOLPE AND NHLAPO AGREED THAT MANDELA SHOULD BE 
ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE SIGNING OF THE AGREEMENT UNTIL THE BURUNDIAN 
PARTIES HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESOLVE OUTSTANDING ISSUES. 
 
SAG IMPRESSED WITH JEAN BOSCO 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  NHLAPO RECALLED THAT SAG OFFICIALS HAD WARNED FORMER PRESIDENT 
 
MANDELA THAT MANY OF THE BURUNDIAN PARTIES WERE NEITHER MATURE, NOR 
HONEST.  MANDELA COMPLAINS THAT THE BURUNDIANS ARE NOT COOPERATING ON 
THE ISSUE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS, WITH ALL SIDES "PLAYING GAMES." 
NHLAPO ADDED THAT MANDELA IS FRUSTRATED WITH THE ISSUE AND HAS TOLD 
BURUNDIAN PRESIDENT BUYOYA THAT HE SIMPLY CANNOT ACCEPT ANY LEADER THAT 
 
CONTINUES TO HOLD POLITICAL PRISONERS. AFTER POSITIVELY RESPONDING TO 
WOLPE'S QUERY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF USING AN INTERNATIONAL PANEL 
 
TO ASSIST IN DEFINING POLITICAL PRISONERS, NHLAPO INDICATED THAT 
MANDELA HAD TO FIRST CLEAR ON THE IDEA. 
 
¶6.  (C)  ALTHOUGH NHLAPO EXPRESSED DOUBT ABOUT CNDD LEADER LEONARD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3088 
 
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O 181550Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6644 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 003942 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL 
 
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
USAID FOR GAMBINO 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03942  02 OF 03  181827Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA 
WELILE NHLAPO 
 
NYANGOMA'S INCONSISTENCY AND INCOMPETENCY AND BAGAZA'S LEADERSHIP 
ABILITY, THE DDG FOR AFRICA INDICATED THAT THE SAG HAS BEEN IMPRESSED 
WITH CNDD/FDD REBEL LEADER JEAN BOSCO NDAYIKENGURUKIYE'S BEHAVIOR. 
ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, MANDELA HAS HAD SUCCESS IN ESTABLISHING A RAPPORT 
WITH JEAN BOSCO, WHO, IN TURN, HAS BEEN QUICK TO ASK FOR GUIDANCE ON 
SUBJECTS HE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND.  FOR EXAMPLE, ILLUSTRATED NHLAPO, JEAN 
 
BOSCO REQUESTED ASSISTANCE IN EXPLAINING PORTIONS OF THE ARUSHA 
DOCUMENTS.  THE REBEL LEADER, SAID NHLAPO, IS "NOT PLAYING GAMES," AND 
SAG OFFICIALS HAVE ORGANIZED HIS TRAVEL TO ARUSHA FOR THE JULY 19 - 20 
SUMMIT.  ON THE OTHER HAND, NHLAPO STRESSED THAT JEAN BOSCO IS "TREATED 
 
LIKE A KING" IN LUBUMBASHI, WHICH MAKES HIS WILLINGNESS TO PARTICIPATE 
IN THE ARUSHA TALKS MORE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN.  NHLAPO ADDED THAT IT 
APPEARED THAT ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT MUGABE, UPON PRESIDENT MBEKI'S 
REQUEST, DID DISCUSS JEAN BOSCO'S POSITION WITH KABILA.  AS A RESULT, 
JEAN BOSCO MAY NOW HAVE MORE FREEDOM OF MANEUVER. 
 
¶7.  (C)  ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, MANDELA HAS SUGGESTED TO JEAN BOSCO THAT 
THE REBEL LEADER DECLARE A UNILATERAL SUSPENSION OF ALL ARMED ACTION, 
AS SUCH A MOVE WOULD ENHANCE JEAN BOSCO'S POLITICAL CREDIBILITY. 
FURTHER, AN EFFECTIVE SUSPENSION WOULD DEMONSTRATE THE REBEL LEADER'S 
COMMAND AND CONTROL ABILITY.  JEAN BOSCO HAS HESITATED TO DO SO, 
RECOUNTED NHLAPO, BECAUSE IT COULD "IMPLY SURRENDER."  UPON HIS RETURN 
FROM BUJUMBURA, SAID NHLAPO, MANDELA WROTE TO BOTH JEAN BOSCO AND FNL 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  03942  02 OF 03  181827Z 
LEADER KOSSAN KABURA, AGAIN URGING THEM TO SUSPEND MILITARY ACTION, 
ARGUING THAT THEY WOULD BENEFIT BY JOINING THE ARUSHA PROCESS. 
KOSSAN'S RESPONSE TO THE LETTER, RECOUNTED NHLAPO, WAS TO INVITE 
MANDELA TO VISIT THE REBEL LEADER'S "LIBERATED" AREAS.  ACCORDING TO 
NHLAPO, THE SAG HAS SERIOUS RESERVATIONS ABOUT KOSSAN'S LEADERSHIP 
ABILITY.  ON THE OTHER HAND, JEAN BOSCO'S "MORE MATURE" ANSWER, SAID 
NHLAPO, INDICATED HE WAS RECEPTIVE TO FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH MANDELA. 
 
¶8.  (C)  JEAN BOSCO'S RECEPTIVENESS NOTWITHSTANDING, NHLAPO MAINTAINED 
THAT IF JEAN BOSCO AND KOSSAN EITHER REFUSED TO JOIN THE ARUSHA PROCESS 
 
OR COULD NOT DELIVER ON A CEASE-FIRE, THE TWO REBEL LEADERS NEEDED TO 
BE MARGINALIZED OR ELSE THEY IN TURN COULD DERAIL THE ENTIRE PROCESS. 
AS THE BURUNDIAN GOVERNMENT IS NOT SURE OF THE EXTENT OF THE REBELS' 
COMMAND AND CONTROL, NHLAPO EMPHASIZED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
 
NEEDED TO EMBARK ON A "SERIOUS ANALYSIS" OF THESE MOVEMENTS IN ORDER TO 
 
OBTAIN A CLEARER IDEA OF THE REBELS' ACTUAL STRENGTH.  AS AN ASIDE, 
NHLAPO ALSO NOTED THAT JEAN BOSCO'S PARTICIPATION IN THE ARUSHA TALKS 
THREATENED NYANGOMA'S POSITION; HE INDICATED THAT MANDELA MUST MAKE A 
SPECIAL EFFORT TO MEET WITH NYANGOMA DURING THE JULY 19-20 SUMMIT. 
 
BROADENING ARUSHA 
----------------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  S/E WOLPE TOLD NHLAPO THAT DON MATTEO ZUPPI ALSO BELIEVED THAT 
 
MANDELA NEEDED TO BE PERSUADED NOT TO INSIST ON A SIGNING OF THE 
AGREEMENT IN AUGUST.  WOLPE ADDED THAT DON MATTEO HOPED THE JULY 19 -20 
 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  03942  02 OF 03  181827Z 
SUMMIT WOULD CRYSTALLIZE DISCUSSION ON OUTSTANDING ISSUES AND ENABLE 
THE KEY FIVE OR SIX ACTORS TO MEET TOGETHER TO WORK ON THESE PROBLEMS. 
NHLAPO SUGGESTED THAT IF SUCH A GATHERING OF KEY BURUNDIAN PLAYERS WAS 
TO BE ORGANIZED, IT WOULD BE HELPFUL TO HAVE INTERNATIONAL ENVOYS 
PRESENT TO EXERT PRESSURE AS NEEDED. 
 
DROC:  PROBLEMS AHEAD 
--------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  IN RESPONSE TO S/E WOLPE'S COMMENT THAT THE USG HAD NOT 
RECEIVED A READOUT FROM ZIMBABWE PRESIDENT MUGABE'S RECENT TRIP TO THE 
DROC, NHLAPO INDICATED THAT THE SAG HAD NOT RECEIVED ONE EITHER, AS ITS 
 
AMBASSADOR WAS CURRENTLY IN SOUTH AFRICA ON MEDICAL LEAVE.  THE SPECIAL 
 
ENVOY STRESSED THAT NAMIBIAN PRESIDENT SAM NUJOMA HAD WORRIED SEVERAL 
CONGRESSMEN RECENTLY WHEN HE STATED THAT THE SADC ALLIES NO LONGER 
SUPPORTED NATIONAL DIALOGUE FACILITATOR MASIRE.  WOLPE STRESSED THAT 
THE USG BELIEVES IT WOULD BE A DISASTER TO THE PEACE PROCESS IF THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WERE TO ACQUIESCE IN KABILA'S REJECTION OF 
MASIRE.  NHLAPO CONCURRED AND ADDED THAT TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT FOR MASIRE 
 
WOULD GIVE DROC PARTIES THE PRETEXT FOR A RENEWAL OF WAR IN THE CONGO. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ3099 
 
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                  ------------------6FA4C3  181831Z /07 
O 181550Z JUL 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6645 
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE 
RWANDA COLLECTIVE 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 003942 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR A/S SUSAN RICE AND PDAS POWELL 
 
NSC FOR GAYLE SMITH 
 
USUN FOR HOLBROOKE 
 
USAID FOR GAMBINO 
 
LONDON FOR PFLAUMER 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  03942  03 OF 03  181831Z 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2005 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS BY CF SF TZ
SUBJECT: S/E WOLPE'S MEETING WITH SAG DDG FOR AFRICA 
WELILE NHLAPO 
 
EMPHASIZING THAT A FULL DEPLOYMENT OF MONUC FORCES DEPENDED UPON 
KABILA'S COMPLYING WITH ALL THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT PROVISIONS, WOLPE 
NOTED THAT KABILA STILL REFUSED MONUC FULL ACCESS AND WAS NOW EMBARKED 
ON AN OFFENSIVE IN EQUATEUR PROVINCE. 
 
¶11.  (C)  RECOUNTING RECENT TELEPHONE CALLS HE AND PERMANENT 
REPRESENTATIVE HOLBROOKE RECEIVED FROM MLC LEADER BEMBA REGARDING 
KABILA'S OFFENSIVE AGAINST MLC FORCES AND HIS FRUSTRATION WITH THE 
USG'S ADMONITION TO STAY IN PLACE AND NOT ATTACK MBANDAKA (REF A), 
WOLPE STRESSED THAT THE USG REMAINED FIRM IN ITS POSITION OF 
DISCOURAGING ANY OFFENSIVE ACTION, EVEN IN REACTION TO AN ATTACK. 
NHLAPO AGREED, NOTING THAT BEMBA HAD ALSO INDICATED TO THE SAG THAT HE 
WOULD LIKE TO MOVE FORWARD "A LITTLE BIT," BUT THAT SOUTH AFRICA HAD 
STRONGLY COUNSELED AGAINST SUCH ACTION.  ACCORDING TO NHLAPO, BEMBA 
REMAINS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE ABOUT HIS CREDIBILITY WITH THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.  NHLAPO ADDED THAT BEMBA CLAIMED HE WAS UNDER 
PRESSURE FROM HIS MILITARY COMMANDERS TO TAKE MBANDAKA, WHICH WOULD 
PLACE HIS FORCES IN A DIRECT LINE TO KINSHASA.  IN RETURN, THE SAG HAS 
REPEATEDLY TOLD BEMBA TO EXERT HIS COMMAND AND CONTROL TO ENSURE THAT 
NO MOVE IS MADE TOWARDS MBANDAKA.  WOLPE NOTED THAT THE USG WAS SEEKING 
 
CONFIRMATION OF BEMBA'S CLAIM THAT HE HAS WITHDRAWN HIS FORCES TO THE 
KAMPALA CEASE-FIRE LINE.  IF SO, SAID WOLPE, KABILA'S RECENT ATTACKS 
HAVE VIOLATED BOTH THE KAMPALA AND LUSAKA AGREEMENTS. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  03942  03 OF 03  181831Z 
 
¶12.  (C) IN CLOSING, SPECIAL ENVOY WOLPE SUGGESTED TO NHLAPO THAT THE 
LUSAKA AGREEMENT WOULD BENEFIT FROM A MEETING OF THE FIVE EXTERNAL 
ACTORS, ZIMBABWE, ANGOLA, NAMIBIA, UGANDA AND RWANDA, WITHOUT KABILA. 
NHLAPO CONCURRED. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶13.  (C) IT APPEARS THAT USG AND SAG ANALYSIS AND PRESCRIPTION ARE IN 
SYNCH, WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE DRC AND BURUNDI PEACE PROCESSES.  THE 
MOST NOTABLE NEW ELEMENT IN NHLAPO'S COMMENTARY IS THE APPARENT RAPPORT 
 
THAT FACILITATOR MANDELA HAS ESTABLISHED WITH THE FDD REBEL LEADER.  TO 
 
SECURE JEAN BOSCO'S PARTICIPATION IN THE JULY 19-20 ARUSHA MEETING 
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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