This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

261354Z Apr 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5178

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5863
INFO NSC WASHDC
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
DEPTTREAS WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002236 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, 
DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER 
GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR AFRICA GAYLE SMITH 
DEPT ALSO PLEASE PASS AID, PASS TO USTR FOR ROSA 
WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/10 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ZIMBABWE ELECTION 
PROSPECTS 
 
REF: HARARE 2121 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR 1.5 (B), (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY. WE HAVE BEGUN AN ANALYSIS OF 
POSSIBLE RESULTS IN THE COMING ZIMBABWEAN 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION BASED ON A DATABASE OF 
VOTING DISTRICTS.  IN A ROUGH FIRST CUT, LOOKING 
ONLY AT THE IMPORTANT URBAN-RURAL SPLIT IN 
CONSTITUENCIES, WE BELIEVE THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT 
FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PARTY COULD COLLECT 
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 SEATS.  OUR ANALYSIS 
HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RURAL VOTE, WHICH 
CONTROLS TWO-THIRDS OF THE CURRENT CONSTITUENCIES. 
THIS PUTS THE RULING PARTY'S ONGOING CAMPAIGN OF 
INTIMIDATION IN RURAL AREAS IN A CLEARER LIGHT: 
THEY ARE FIGHTING TO SAVE THEIR POLITICAL SKINS. A 
LOCAL MDC-LEANING POLITICAL SCIENTIST, WHO CONDUCTS 
POLLS TO PREDICT AND ANALYZE VOTING, UNDERLINED THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE MDC WIN--MAYBE EVEN CONTROL 
OF PARLIAMENT--IF THEY CAN STYMIE ZANU-PF ATTEMPTS 
TO SUPPRESS THEM. END SUMMARY. 
  BEGINNING ANALYSIS WITH THE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN 
 
¶2.  (C) THERE ARE CLEARLY MANY IMPONDERABLES AT 
THIS STAGE OF THE ELECTION CYCLE.  EVEN A SHORT 
LIST MUST INCLUDE: WHEN THE VOTE WILL BE HELD; THE 
DEGREE OF OPENNESS WITH WHICH IT WILL BE CONDUCTED; 
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THE EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT CAMPAIGN TO USE VIOLENCE 
TO INTIMIDATE RURAL SUPPORTERS OF THE OPPOSITION 
PARTY, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC); THE 
EFFECTIVENESS OF INDEPENDENT PARTIES AND PRESS; AND 
POSSIBLE GERRYMANDERING FAVORING ZANU-PF IN THE 
ONGOING PROCESS OF DELIMITING VOTING DISTRICTS. 
NONETHELESS, SOME OUTLINES OF POSSIBLE ELECTION 
RESULTS CAN BE DISCERNED. 
 
¶3.  (C) FOR OUR PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS, WE HAVE 
CLASSIFIED THE CURRENT 120 PARLIAMENTARY 
CONSTITUENCIES BY WHAT PROVINCE THEY ARE IN AND 
THEIR DEGREE OF URBANIZATION.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO 
REFINE THIS DATABASE AND ADD ADDITIONAL VARIABLES. 
AS A BACKGROUND NOTE, UNDER THE CURRENT 
CONSTITUTION THE PRESIDENT APPOINTS 30 MEMBERS TO 
PARLIAMENT, WITH THE RESULT THAT TO ACHIEVE A 
MAJORITY, AN OPPOSITION PARTY WILL HAVE TO SEE AT 
LEAST 76 MEMBERS ELECTED. 
 
  ASSUMING MDC URBAN SUPPORT 
 
¶4.  (C) BECAUSE THE IMPONDERABLES SURROUNDING THE 
ELECTION ARE SO LARGE, OUR ANALYSIS AT THIS TIME IS 
NECESSARILY VERY ROUGH.  WE HAVE CLASSIFIED 
CONSTITUENCIES INTO EITHER RURAL OR NON-RURAL 
(INCLUDING CITIES, TOWNS, AND SUBURBS).  AS A FIRST 
CUT AT LOOKING AT POSSIBLE ELECTION RESULTS, WE 
ASSUME THE MDC WILL LARGELY CARRY THE URBAN AREAS 
AND THE RULING ZANU-PF WILL LARGELY TAKE THE RURAL 
AREAS. 
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¶5.  (C) UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE MDC WILL TAKE 
90 PERCENT OF CURRENT NON-RURAL CONSTITUENCIES 
WHILE ZANU-PF TAKES 90 PERCENT OF THE RURAL AREAS, 
MDC WOULD GARNER ABOUT 46 SEATS AND ZANU-PF WOULD 
TAKE ABOUT 74.  IF MDC MANAGES TO HOLD ITS URBAN 
BASE AT THE 90 PERCENT LEVEL AND INCREASE ITS 
APPEAL TO 15 PERCENT OF THE RURAL CONSTITUENCIES, 
ITS SEAT TOTAL WOULD GO TO 50, AND ZANU-PF WOULD 
HOLD 70. 
  IMPORTANT VOTING DISTRICTS NOT SET 
 
¶6.  (C) ONE OF THE MAJOR STUMBLING BLOCKS TO 
SCHEDULING THE ELECTION HAS BEEN THE NEED FOR THE 
DELIMITATION COMMISSION, UNDER SUPREME COURT 
JUSTICE WILSON SANDURA, TO COMPLETE A REVISION OF 
THE PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCIES.  IN A RECENT 
CONVERSATION (REFTEL), HE TOLD US HE THOUGHT IT 
POSSIBLE THAT THE PATTERN OF THE LAST DELIMITATION 
EXERCISE, WHICH SAW AN INCREASE IN URBAN 
CONSTITUENCIES AT THE EXPENSE OF RURAL ONES, WOULD 
BE REPEAT 
ED.  AS A PRELIMINARY CUT AT WHAT RESULTS. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL