This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

261130Z Apr 00


                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4009

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FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5859
INFO NSC WASHDC
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
DEPTTREAS WASHDC
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002230 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, 
DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER 
GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
DEPT ALSO PLEASE PASS AID 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/10 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: GERMAN AMBASSADOR ON MUGABE'S STRATEGY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02230  01 OF 02  261126Z 
 
REF: HARARE 2222 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR 1.5 (B), (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  IN AN APRIL 24 MEETING WITH 
AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, GERMAN AMBASSADOR FRITZ FLIMM 
PASSED INFORMATION ABOUT AN ONGOING FARM OCCUPATION 
THAT HAD SEEN UPWARDS OF A THOUSAND SO-CALLED "WAR 
VETERANS" THREATEN A GERMAN NATIONAL AND OTHER FARM 
RESIDENTS WHILE OCCUPYING A LARGE: COMMERCIAL FARM 
NEAR HARARE.  FLIMM THOUGHT IT DEBATABLE WHETHER 
PRESIDENT MUGABE WANTS A SOLUTION TO THE LAND 
CRISIS, SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE HIS POLITICAL 
CAMPAIGN THEME FOR THE UPCOMING PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTION.  IN KEEPING WITH THIS, HE SUSPECTED THE 
UPCOMING CONFERENCE IN LONDON MAY BE DESIGNED TO 
FAIL.  HE ALSO THOUGHT THE EU WOULD OFFER TO SEND 
ELECTION OBSERVERS, BUT THE FINAL DECISION WILL 
REST WITH THE GOZ WHEN IT CHOOSES WHETHER OR NOT TO 
ACCEPT THE OFFER.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) AMBASSADOR FLIMM CALLED C)N AMBASSADOR 
MCDONALD TO PASS ALONG INFORMATIC)N ON AN ONGOING 
FARM OCCUPATION NEAR HARARE THAT, BECAUSE THE FARM 
MANAGER WAS BEING HELD AGAINST H]-S WILL, WAS 
GARNERING SIGNIFICANT MEDIA ATTENTION.  HE ALSO 
SOUGHT A READOUT ON THE RECENT S/E WOLPE VISIT. 
DCM AND TDY POLOFF (NOTETAKER) ALSO ATTENDED. 
 
¶3.  (C) FLIMM HAD BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02230  01 OF 02  261126Z 
FARM MANAGER DURING THE OCCUPATION BECAUSE THE 
OWNER IS A GERMAN NATIONAL.  HE SAID THE SITUATION 
ON THE 20,000 HECTARE FARM (THE LARGEST TOBACCO 
FARM IN THE COUNTRY) HAD DEVELOPED ON THE MORNING 
OF APRIL 23, WHEN THE RESIDENT MANAGER HAD CALLED 
FOR ASSISTANCE WHEN HE SAW TWO COLUMNS OF FARM 
OCCUPIERS APPROACHING THE MAIN PROPERTY.  THEY WERE 
USING EQUIPMENT THEY HAD STOLEN FROM NEARBY 
OCCUPIED FARMS AS TRANSPORTATION.  AT THE HEIGHT OF 
THE OCCUPATION, ABOUT 1,000 SO-CALLED WAR VETERANS 
WERE PRESENT. 
 
¶4.  (C) THE FARM MANAGER ESTIMATED THAT ABOUT HALF 
OF THE OCCUPIERS WERE NOT PARTICIPATING 
VOLUNTARILY.  HE ALSO THOUGHT THAT MOST OF THEM 
WERE NOT FROM THE AREA AROUND THE FARM, BUT HAD 
INSTEAD COME FROM THE NORTHERN REGION OF ZIMBABWE. 
 
¶5.  (C) AMBASSADOR FLIMM AND THE FARM MANAGER HAD 
BEEN CONFIDENT THE OCCUPATION WOULD NOT BE A MAJOR 
WORRY BECAUSE THE AMBASSADOR HAD PREVIOUS 
ASSURANCES FROM MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCIAL 
GOVERNOR AND ZANU-PF HEAVYWEIGHT BORDER GEZI THAT 
IT WOULD BE PEACEFUL.  WHEN THE OCCUPATION TURNED 
VIOLENT AND THE MANAGER AND OTHER FARM RESIDENTS 
WERE BEING THREATENED, AMBASSADOR FLIMM HAD BEEN 
ABLE TO BRING THE SITUATION UNDER CONTROL BY AGAIN 
APPEALING TO GEZI.  IN THE END, THE WAR VETS LEFT A 
TOKEN HANDFUL OF OCCUPIERS ON TH|: FARM AND HAD 
TAKEN ADDITIONAL FARM EQUIPMENT TO TRANSPORT 
THEMSELVES TO OTHER PROPERTIES IN THE AREA. 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  02230  01 OF 02  261126Z 
 
¶6.  (C) REFLECTING ON THIS OCCUPATION AND THE 
RECENT COURSE OF EVENTS NATIONWIDE, FLIMM OPINED 
THAT IT IS HIGHLY DEBATABLE WHETHER PRESIDENT 
MUGABE ACTUALLY WANTS A RESOLUTION TO THE LAND 
OCCUPATION CRISIS.  FLIMM SEES THE OCCUPATIONS, THE 
ATTENDANT PUBLICITY, THE INTIMIDATION OF RURAL 
VOTERS, AND MUGABE'S ABILITY TO  PROJECT A TOUGH 
PUBLIC IMAGE, AS ALL PART OF A PACKAGE THAT MUGABE, 
FOR NOW AT LEAST, FINDS TO HIS LIKING.  IN ESSENCE, 
THE CRISIS HAS BEEN AN ELECTION PLOY BY MUGABE. 
 
¶7.  (C) FLIMM THOUGHT IT LIKELY THAT MUGABE INTENDS 
FOR THE COMING LONDON CONSULTATIONS BETWEEN A 
ZIMBABWEAN MINISTERIAL TROIKA AND BRITAIN TO FAIL. 
AS FLIMM SEES IT, A WASHOUT AT THE LONDON 
CONFERENCE GIVES MUGABE TWO THINGS: HE CAN CONTINUE 
TO PORTRAY THE BRITISH AS INTRANSIGENT, AND HE 
KEEPS THE FARM OCCUPIERS, WITH THEIR VALUABLE 
POLITICAL MUSCLE, ON THE FARMS WHERE THEY CAN HELP 
DELIVER ZANU-PF VOTES.  IN SHORT, FLIMM THINKS 
MUGABE WANTS TO KEEP UP THE PRESSURE WITH THE 
OBJECTIVE OF SMASHING HIS MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY, 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ4013 
 
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      EUR-01   VC-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   L-00     AC-01 
      NEA-00   NSAE-00  OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    USIE-00  SA-00    PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /008W 
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R 261130Z APR 00 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5860 
INFO NSC WASHDC 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC 
DEPTTREAS WASHDC 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 002230 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, 
DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER 
GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT 
NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH 
DEPT ALSO PLEASE PASS AID 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/26/10 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
 
SUBJECT: GERMAN AMBASSADOR ON MUGABE'S STRATEGY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  02230  02 OF 02  261127Z 
 
THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). 
 
¶8.  (C) FLIMM ALSO INFORMED THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE 
EU IS IN FAVOR OF SENDING OBSERVE:RS FOR THE 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  THE EU WILL MAKE THE OFFER 
TO THE GOZ, WHICH WILL THEN HAVE THE FINAL DECISION 
ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE OBSERVERS. 
 
¶9.  (C) FLIMM SOUGHT INFORMATION FROM THE 
AMBASSADOR ABOUT THE RECENT SERIE:S OF MEETINGS 
BETWEEN THE AMBASSADOR, S/E WOLPE:, AND GOZ 
OFFICIALS INCLUDING MUGABE.  THE AMBASSADOR 
PROVIDED A READOUT OF THE MEETINGS HE HAD 
PARTICIPATED IN ALONG THE LINES OF REFTEL. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶10.  (C) WE BELIEVE THAT AT THIS TIME, MUGABE HAS 
LITTLE REAL INTEREST IN SOLVING THE LAND CRISIS. 
IT IS, AT BOTTOM, A POLITICAL MOVE HE HAS 
ACQUIESCED IN IF NOT DESIGNED.  T'HE ABILITY OF 
GOVERNOR GEZI TO TURN OFF VIOLENCE APPARENTLY AT 
WILL IS ANOTHER SIGN, IF ONE WERE NEEDED, THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT CAN INDEED CONTROL THE COURSE OF EVENTS 
HERE WHEN IT SO DESIRES.  MOREOVER, THE PEOPLE 
SUFFERING THE HARD KNOCKS ARE MUGABE'S POLITICAL 
OPPONENTS. 
 
¶11.  (C) IT ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL WE HAVE 
SEEN THAT MUGABE WISHES FOR THE LONDON CONFERENCE 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  02230  02 OF 02  261127Z 
WITH BRITAIN TO FAIL.  SUCCESS WOULD BRING HIM 
INTERNATIONAL APPROBATION, BUT WOULD STYMIE HIM IN 
THE ONE CLEAR COURSE HE HAS CHARTED IN TRYING TO 
APPEAL TO THE ZIMBABWEAN VOTER--AND AT THE MOMENT 
POLITICAL SURVIVAL OUTWEIGHS ALL OTHER CONCERNS FOR 
MUGABE.  IF THE TALKS DO NOT SUCCEED, HE CAN 
CONTINUE TO BLAME OTHERS FOR HIS COUNTRY'S 
PROBLEMS, RAIL AGAINST THE COLONIAL PAST, AND KEEP 
THE POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE WAR VETERANS OCCUPIED 
WITH A TASK THEY APPARENTLY FIND TO THEIR LIKING. 
IN THE EVENT THE TALKS DO PRODUCE SOME SETTLEMENT, 
MUGABE WILL CROW ABOUT HIS SUCCESS, BUT WE STILL 
WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE RAPID PROGRESS ON THE 
GROUND TOWARD PACIFYING THE FARM OCCUPIERS, A MOVE 
THAT WOULD REQUIRE HIM TO THINK OF A NEW ELECTION 
STRATEGY.  END COMMENT. 
MCDONALD 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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