R 201733Z NOV 96
FM AMEMBASSY ALGIERS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6609
INFO ALGERIA COLLECTIVE
UTAIS RAMSTEIN AB GE//INOW//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 003262 
 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  11/20/2006 
TAGS: PTER PINS KISL AG
SUBJECT:  RECENT TERRORIST ATTACKS:  BLOODIER, BUT 
          NOT INDICATIVE OF NEW TERRORIST STRENGTH 
 
REF:  ALGIERS 2884 
 
¶1.  (U)  CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOSEPH 
STAFFORD, AMEMBASSY ALGIERS, REASON 1.5 (D). 
 
¶2.  (C)  SUMMARY:  AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF NEARLY 
FIVE YEARS OF SUSTAINED VIOLENCE HERE, NOVEMBER 1996 
HAS WITNESSED SOME PARTICULRLY GRUESOME TERRORIST 
ATROCITIES, ESPECIALLY INCENTRAL ALGERIA.  RATHER 
THAN TRYING TO PREVENT EWSPAPERS FROM PUBLISHING 
STORIES ABOUT THE ATROITIES, THE GOVERNMENT APPEARS 
TO BE ENCOURAGING HEM TO DO SO.  THESE LATEST 
ATTACKS HAVE AGGRAVATD PUBLIC WORRIES ABOUT THE 
SECURITY SITUATION, EPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS 
REGIONS OUTSIDE ALGIRS.  WE SENSE, HOWEVER, LITTLE 
CHANGE IN CITIZEN' DAILY ROUTINE IN ALGIERS OR EVEN 
THE NEARBY BLDA REGION, SCENE OF SEVERAL OF THE 
RECENT INCIDENS.  THIS LATEST UPTURN IN VIOLENCE 
HAS NOT YET PROVIDED CONVINCING EVIDENCE OF NEW 
CAPABILITIES ON THE PART OF EXTREMIST ELEMENTS, NOR 
OF A GREATER THREAT TO REGIME STABILITY.  AT THIS 
POINT, WE SEE NO/NO REASON TO REVISE OUR ASSESSMENT 
THAT THE GOA IS MAKING PROGRESS IN REDUCING THE 
INSURGENCY THREAT -- BUT LESS PROGRESS IN REDUCING 
TERRORISM.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (U)  TERRORIST INCIDENTS AGAINST CIVILIANS 
REMAIN FREQUENT IN ALGERIA, BUT NOVEMBER 1996 
APPEARS TO BE A PARTICULARLY HORRIFIC MONTH. 
MURDERS OF CIVILIANS APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED FROM 
THE LEVELS EARLIER IN THE AUTUMN.  THE LIST OF 
RECENT ATTACKS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO: 
 
-- THE NOVEMBER 5 MASSACRE OF 13 CIVILIANS IN 
DAOUDA, IN TIPAZA WILAYA; 
 
-- THE NOVEMBER 7 BOMBING IN A VILLAGE NEAR TLEMCEN, 
IN WESTERN ALGERIA, WHICH KILLED FIVE, INCLUDING THE 
VILLAGE MAYOR; 
 
--  THE NOVEMBER 8 SLAUGHTER OF 31 PERSONS IN SIDI 
EL KEBIR VILLAGE, OUTSIDE OF BLIDA; 
 
--  THE NOVEMBER 10 BOMBING IN BIR KHADEM, OUTSIDE 
OF ALGIERS, WHICH KILLED SEVEN (INCLUDING THE SISTER 
OF AN EMBASSY FSN EMPLOYEE); 
 
--  THE NOVEMBER 12 ATTACK WHICH KILLED 14 PERSONS 
NEAR OUED ALLEUG, IN BLIDA WILAYA; 
 
--  THE NOVEMBER 13 KILLINGS OF 29 PERSONS IN TWO 
INCIDENTS IN MEDEA WILAYA; 
 
--  THE NOVEMBER 15 MURDER OF A BULGARIAN CITIZEN IN 
ALGIERS. 
 
¶4.  (C)  FROM WHAT LITTLE WE CAN PICK EJFROM OUR 
CONTACTS, THE RECENT SPATE OF INCIDENTS HAS 
AGGRAVATED THE WORRIES OF MANY, ESPECIALLY IN THE 
MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE OF ALGIERS, ABOUT SECURITY.  IN 
SOME CASES, THESE INCIDENTS STIRRED VILLAGES TO 
HASTEN CREATION OF LOCAL MILITIAS.  FOR EXAMPLE, 
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE MASSACRE AT SIDI EL KEBIR, 
THE GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED ARMS TO VILLAGERS WHO 
SUBSEQUENTLY KILLED TWO ALLEGED TERRORISTS, 
ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS.  AN ALGERIAN WHO LIVES 
IN A VILLAGE NEAR THE JUNCTIONS OF BLIDA, TIPAZA AND 
ALGIERS WILAYAS TOLD POLOFF NOVEMBER 12 THAT MANY IN 
HIS COMMUNITY FEAR AN ATTACK BY ARMED ISLAMISTS; HE 
PREDICTED IT WAS ONLY A QUESTION OF TIME.  IN 
RESPONSE, THE VILLAGE HAS ASKED THE LOCAL MILITARY 
AUTHORITIES FOR ARMS WITH WHICH TO ESTABLISH A 
"SELF-PROTECTION" FORCE (SO FAR, AUTHORITIES HAVE 
DECLINED TO SUPPLY WEAPONS). 
 
¶5.  (C)  IN SOME CASES FAMILIES HAVE TAKEN FLIGHT. 
A JOURNALIST WITH THE AVOWEDLY ANTI-ISLAMIST 
NEWSPAPER LIBERTE TOLD US THAT ONE OF THEIR 
REPORTERS SAW IN BLIDA ON NOVEMBER 18 HUNDREDS OF 
PERSONS WHO HAD FLED THEIR HOMES IN REMOTE MOUNTAIN 
LOCALES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY AND TAKEN REFUGE IN 
DOWNTOWN BLIDA (ITSELF NOT THE SAFEST PLACE).  THE 
REPORTER SAID THAT SEVERAL OF THESE PEOPLE TOLD HIM 
THE ARMED GROUPS OPERATING IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE 
VOWED TO COMMIT MORE MASSACRES.  (ACCORDING TO PRESS 
REPORTS, THE BAND WHICH COMMITED THE NOVEMBER 12 
MURDERS AT OUED ALLEUG LEFT A NOTE SIGNED BY THE 
ARMED ISLAMIC GROUP (GIA) AND CONCLUDING WITH THE 
EXPRESSION, "BLOOD, BLOOD, DESTRUCTION, 
DESTRUCTION.") 
 
¶6.  (C)  THE GOVERNMENT HAS CHANGED ITS MEDIA POLICY 
IN RESPONSE TO THESE TERRORIST INCIDENTS.  (IT HAD 
BEEN GENERALLY RESTRAINING NEWSPAPERS FROM 
PUBLISHING STORIES ABOUT THE SECURITY SITUATION.)  A 
JOURNALIST FROM AN ARABIC DAILY TOLD POLOFF NOVEMBER 
19 THAT THE INFORMATION MINISTRY CALLED HIS 
NEWSPAPER NOVEMBER 11 TO ASK WHY THE JOURNAL HAD NOT 
HIGHLIGHTED THE SIDI EL KEBIR MASSACRE WITH A STORY 
AND PHOTOS ON PAGE ONE LIKE OTHER NEWSPAPERS.  THIS 
SOURCE STATED THAT THE MINISTRY ENCOURAGED THE 
NEWSPAPER TO GIVE GREATER EMPHASIS TO TERRORIST 
ATTACKS; THE JOURNALIST COULDN'T EXPLAIN EXACTLY 
WHY.  MEANWHILE, THE TELEVISION NEWS HAS REPORTED 
THE MANY INCIDENTS (AFTER THE DAILY TAKE OF STORIES 
ABOUT RALLIES IN FAVOR OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL 
REFERENDUM).  AFTER THE SIDI EL KEBIR MASSACRE, THE 
TELEVISION EVEN RAN GRUESOME PICTURES OF BODIES, 
REMINISCENT OF BROADCASTS FROM 1994. 
 
¶7.  (C)  DESPITE THE SPATE OF RECENT INCIDENTS, WE 
DETECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM CITIZENS' DAILY ROUTINE IN 
ALGIERS, ASIDE FROM A FEW EXTRA ROADBLOCKS.  A 
SENIOR JOURNALIST FROM THE ARABIC DAILY EL-KHABER 
STRESSED TO POLOFF NOVEMBER 18 THAT LIFE IN AND 
AROUND BLIDA APPEARS TO BE MORE OR LESS AS IT WAS 
EARLIER IN THE AUTUMN.  HE POINTED OUT THAT THE 
SPARKLING WATER PRODUCTION PLANT IN SIDI EL-KEBIR IS 
STILL OPERATING, FOR EXAMPLE.  THE AFP CORRESPONDENT 
HERE CAUTIONED POLOFF NOVEMBER 19 THAT SOME OF THE 
MOST PUBLICIZED RECENT INCIDENTS WERE HOUR-LONG 
ASSAULTS AGAINST A FEW HOMES; HE CONTRASTED THIS 
WITH 1993 AND 1994, WHEN LARGER GROUPS SOMETIMES 
OCCUPIED WHOLE VILLAGES FOR AN ENTIRE NIGHT, OR 
ATTACKED MILITARY CAMPS. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  THIS SERIES OF TERRORIST ATTACKS DOES NOT 
CAUSE US TO CHANGE OUR ASSESSMENT IN REFTEL THAT THE 
GOA IS MAKING PROGRESS IN REDUCING THE INSURGENCY 
THREAT -- BUT LESS PROGRESS IN REDUCING TERRORISM. 
THE CENTRAL, MOUNTAINOUS WILAYAS OF BLIDA, TIPAZA, 
AND MEDEA, WHERE MOST OF THE RECENT INCIDENTS TOOK 
PLACE, HAVE LONG BEEN STRONGHOLDS OF ARMED 
ISLAMISTS.  EVEN THERE, WE DO NOT SEE CONCERTED 
ATTACKS AGAINST INFRASTRUCTURE, NOR ARE WE AWARE OF 
A SHARPLY HIGHER NUMBER OF MILITARY--AS OPPOSED TO 
CIVILIAN--DEATHS.  THUS, THE MANY INCIDENTS OF 
NOVEMBER 1996 DO NOT YET PROVIDE EVIDENCE EITHER 
THAT TERRORIST GROUPS HAVE GAINED SIGNIFICANT NEW 
CAPABILITIES WITH WHICH TO THREATEN, MUCH LESS 
TOPPLE, THE GOVERNMENT.  MOREOVER, GIVEN THE LONG 
SERIES OF UP AND DOWN CYCLES OF VIOLENCE HERE SINCE 
1992, THESE LATEST ATROCITIES DO NOT SIGNIFY THAT 
THE ALGERIAN MILITARY'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE 
TERRORIST GROUPS HAS SUFFERED A SERIOUS REVERSE. 
RATHER, NOVEMBER 1996 SERVES TO REMIND THAT ENDING 
THE TERRORISM HERE WILL BE A LONG PROCESS AT BEST. 
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RECENT INCIDENTS ARE 
DESIGNED, AT LEAST IN PART, TO DISSUADE CITIZENS 
FROM VENTURING FORTH TO VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER 28 
CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM.  IF SO, WE HAVE GOTTEN NO 
SENSE THAT THE EXTREMISTS' INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN IS 
HAVING MUCH IMPACT. 
 
 
STAFFORD