This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002784 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL OSCE 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: 7/25/00 
TAGS: 
SUBJECT:  UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED, 
          EXPECT GOC REACTION BEFORE NOVEMBER 
 
 
¶1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
------------------------------ 
"ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  ON JULY 25, POLOFFS MET WITH UNPF CHIEF OF STAFF 
GENERAL KOLSTEREN TO DISCUSS THE "ARSK" OFFENSIVE IN BIHAC 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GOC REACTION.  KOLSTEREN TOLD US 
THAT THE UN'S ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN BIHAC LEADS TO 
THE CONCLUSION THAT THE OBJECTIVE OF THE "ARSK" OPERATION 
IS ONLY TO RETAKE AREAS OF THE POCKET HELD BY ABDIC PRIOR 
TO HIS EXPULSION BY THE GOBH V CORPS LAST YEAR.  ATTACKS 
BY THE BSA ARE BELIEVED TO BE ONLY DIVERSIONARY.  "ARSK-" 
ABDIC ACTION WOULD CREATE A RUFFER ZONE TO PROTECT SERB 
VILLAGES FROM ATTACKS BY GOBH FORCES, WHICH HE RLAMED FOR 
PRECIPITATING THE ATTACKS.  HE SAID THAT GORH MILITARY 
COMMAND LOCATED V CORPS HQ IN DOWNTOWN BIHAC IN A 
DISINGENUOUS EFFORT TO DRAW NATO AIRSTRIKES ON ATTACKING 
SERBS. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02784  01 OF 02  251724Z 
 
¶3.  MEANWHILE, UN SENIOR POLITICAL ADVISOR ALMSTROM TOLD 
US JULY 25 THAT THE LEVEL OF FIGHTING IN BIHAC SEEMED TO 
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT.  CONTRARY TO KOLSTEREN, ALMSTROM 
SAID THAT UN ANALYSTS ARE QUESTIONING "WHETHER THE BOSNIAN 
SERBS" ARE INVOLVED OR NOT; ALMSTROM ECHOED KOLSTEREN'S 
COMMENTS THAT THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION LINE LOOKS VERY 
MUCH LIKE THE AREA THAT ABDIC FORCES CONTROLLED ABOUT A 
YEAR AGO AND SPECULATED THAT THE ARSK MIGHT BE HELPING 
ABDIC TO REGAIN LOST GROUND IN RETURN FOR HIS COOPERATION 
NOW AND IN THE PAST.  KOLSTEREN AND ALMSTROM BOTH DOUBTED 
THAT THE ARSK WOULD PRESS ITS ATTACK BECAUSE THEY MUST 
RECOGNIZE THE CROATIAN THREAT.  (ALMSTROM ADDED THAT ALL 
FORCES IN THE AREA HAD SCRUPULOUSLY AVOIDED ACTIVITY IN 
THE SAFE ZONE, I.E., BIHAC TOWN ITSELF). 
 
-------------------------------- 
GOC WILL RESPOND BEFORE NOVEMBER 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  IN KOLSTEREN'S OPINION, THE GOC COULD USE ATTACKS ON 
BIHAC AS AN EXCUSE TO RETAKE THE "RSK" BUT HAD NO 
INDICATIONS THAT ANY ASSAULT WAS IMMINENT.  HE SAID THAT 
THE HV COULD BEGIN AN ATTACK INTO SECTOR SOUTH FROM THE 
FREE CROATIA AND BOSNIA IN A FEW DAYS OR WEEKS, BUT WOULD 
DEFINITELY MOVE BEFORE THE END OF THE UNCRO MANDATE IN 
NOVEMBER AND THE ONSET OF WINTER.  HE SAID THAT THE LONGER 
THE GOC WAITS TO ATTACK, THE LONGER "ARSK" MILITARY 
COMMANDER GENERAL MRKSIC HAS TO STRENGTHEN HIS FORCES.  IF 
THE GOC DECIDES TO ATTACK, HE TOLD US THAT HE THINKS 
MILOSEVIC WILL DO NOTHING TO IN DEFENSE OF THE "RSK" 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02784  01 OF 02  251724Z 
BECAUSE HE HAS EVERYTHING HE WANTS IN SECTOR EAST, AND THE 
BSA WILL PROVIDE LITTLE HELP BECAUSE IT IS STRETCHED THIN 
IN BOSNIA. 
 
¶5.  ALMSTROM SAID THAT HE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE 
CROATS UNDERTOOK SOME ACTIVITY IN THE LIVNO VALLEY, BUT 
THE UN HAD "NO EVIDENCE" AS OF 1600 JULY 25 THAT THEY HAD 
DONE SO.  (COMMENT:  DATT HAS REPORTED THAT AS OF 0500 ON 
JULY 25, THE HVO BEGAN AN OPERATION AGAINST GLAMOC.) 
TROUBLE HAD FLARED AGAIN NEAR OSIJEK ON JULY 24, ALMSTROM 
SAID, BUT HAD BEEN SEEMINGLY CALMED AGAIN BY LOCAL 
COMMANDERS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
UNPF CHIEF OF STAFF OPPOSES WIDER USE OF AIRSTRIKES 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶6.  TURNING TO BOSNIA, KOLSTEREN LAUNCHED INTO A TIRADE 
AGAINST U.S. PRESSURE FOR AIRSTRIKES AND LIFTING THE ARMS 
EMBARGO ON THE GOBH.  HE SAID THAT IF UNPF RELINQUISHES 
THE "DUAL KEY" THEN UNPROFOR WILL BE FORCED TO WITHDRAW 
FROM BOSNIA IMMEDIATELY, BECAUSE AIRSTRIKES WOULD ENTAIL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNNPTQ1510 
 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1510 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02784  02 OF 02  251725Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  OASY-00  DOEE-00  SRPP-00 
      DS-00    EB-01    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-06    L-01 
      ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PM-00    PRS-01   P-01 
      SCT-00   SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-01   TRSE-00  USIE-00 
      SNIS-00  NISC-01  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRME-01  DRL-09   G-00 
        /028W 
                  ------------------DCD8A0  251725Z /38 
O 251822Z JUL 95 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6561 
INFO HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//POLAD// 
COMSIXTHFLT //N2// 
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD// 
CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XOX/IN/POLAD// 
AMCONSUL MUNICH 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USLO SKOPJE 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
NATO EU COLLECTIVE 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-4/J-5// 
NSC WASHDC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02784  02 OF 02  251725Z 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002784 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL OSCE 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: 7/25/00 
TAGS: 
SUBJECT:  UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED, 
          EXPECT GOC REACTION BEFORE NOVEMBER 
 
WIDESPREAD TAKING OF UN HOSTAGES, EVEN AFTER TAKING STEPS 
TO SECURE PERSONNEL.  (NOTE: HE ALSO STATED THAT SYG 
BUTROS GHALI STILL RETAINS ONE OF THE "KEYS.")  HE SAID 
THAT THE USE OF CLOSE AIR SUPPORT MUST BE TIED TO SPECIFIC 
TACTICAL TARGETS LOCATED IN AREAS WHERE THE BSA IS 
ATTACKING SAFE AREAS.  IN HIS OPINION, THE BOSNIAN SERBS 
ARE INCAPABLE OF MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN STRIKES ON 
STRATEGIC TARGETS, SUCH AS AMMO DUMPS AND AIR DEFENSES, 
AND THEIR ACTIONS AGAINST UN PROTECTED AREAS. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
SERBS AND BOSNIAKS GUILTY OF WAR CRIMES 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  KOLSTEREN STRESSED THAT THE UN MUST REMAIN IMPARTIAL. 
IN THE CASE OF THE BSA ATTACKS ON SREBRENICA, HE SAID THAT 
DUTCH SOLDIERS COULD ONLY CONFIRM THE FEW CASES OF 
ATROCITIES THAT THEY WITNESSED.  HE CHARGED THAT VIOLENCE 
BETWEEN RIVAL MUSLIM GROUPS (THOSE THAT WANTED TO 
SURRENDER AND THOSE THAT DIDN'T) WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02784  02 OF 02  251725Z 
LARGE NUMBERS OF KILLINGS.  IN THE CASE OF ZEPA, HE 
CHARACTERIZED THE BOSNIAKS STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE POCKET 
AS THUGS AND CRIMINALS, RESPONSIBLE FOR CRIMES AGAINST 
SERB AND MUSLIM CIVILIANS, WHO ARE AFRAID OF BEING 
CAPTURED BY THE BSA. 
 
SITUATION IN ZEPA 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  ALMSTROM DENIED BROADCAST NEWS REPORTS THAT ZEPA HAD 
FINALLY "FALLEN" TO THE SERBS.  HE SAID THE SITUATION 
THERE REMAINED "CONFUSING."  HE ADMITTED THE UKRAINIANS 
WERE HUNKERED DOWN, TAKING MORTAR FIRE FROM BOTH (I.E. 
MUSLIM AND SERB) SIDES AND UNABLE TO DO MUCH OBSERVING. 
B-H FORCES WERE PUTTING UP A STIFF RESISTANCE; MLADIC WAS 
CURIOUSLY RELUCTANT TO MOVE IN AND FINISH THE JOB, BUT HE 
MUST ALSO BE CHAFING, HAVING CLAIMED ALMOST A WEEK AGO 
THAT HIS ARMY HAD TAKEN CONTROL OF ZEPA.  ALMSTROM 
REPORTED VARIOUS "RUMORS" THAT THERE WAS SOME AGREEMENT 
UNDER WHICH UNPROFOR WOULD COLLECT WEAPONS IN ZEPA IN 
RETURN FOR WHICH THE CIVILIANS COULD BE RELEASED BUT 
AKASHI WAS OF THE FIRM VIEW THAT VULNERABLE CIVILIANS; 
MUST BE ALLOWED TO LEAVE, PERIOD, WITHOUT ANY 
PRECONDITIONS. 
 
GALBRAITH 
 
 
 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN