This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

CONFIDENTIAL  SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 02622 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
 
E.O. 12356:  7/13/00 
TAGS: 
SUBJECT:  GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO 
          SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS 
          DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC 
 
 
¶1.  CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
------------------- 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  SPEAKING JULY 13, CROATIAN FM GRANIC USED THE FALL 
OF SREBRENICA TO REINFORCE THE POINT HE HAS BEEN MAKING 
FOR SOME TIME, THAT BELGRADE IS RESPONSIBLE AND THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST EXERT STRONG PRESSURE ON 
MILOSEVIC.  OVERALL, GRANIC'S MESSAGE WAS ONE OF 
REASSURANCE THAT CROATIA REMAINED COMMITTED TO PEACEFUL 
RESOLUTION OF THE REGION'S PROBLEMS AND RESTRAINT IN 
THE FACE OF PROVOCATION.  BUT HE DID LAY DOWN MARKERS 
CONCERNING UNCRO'S NONPERFORMANCE OF ITS MANDATE AND 
POSSIBLE SERB MILITARY THREATS TO BIHAC.  REFERRING TO 
EVIDENCE OF A SERB BUILDUP AROUND BIHAC, HE MADE CLEAR 
THIS WOULD BE OF MUCH MORE DIRECT CONCERN TO CROATIA, 
AND COULD LEAD TO A "WIDENING OF THE WAR," THOUGH HE 
STOPPED SHORT OF PREDICTING CROATIAN MILITARY ACTION TO 
PRESERVE BIHAC'S "PROTECTED ZONE" STATUS.  END SUMMARY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 

 
 
 
 
 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02622  01 OF 02  131536Z 
AND COMMENT. 
 
¶3.  CROATIAN FM GRANIC CONVOKED AMBASSADORS/CHARGES OF 
CONTACT GROUP, UNSC, EU TROIKA, AND OSCE PRESIDENCY 
COUNTRIES JULY 13 FOR A REAOOUT OF THE CROATIAN VIEW OF 
THE FALL OF SREBRENICA. 
 
----------------------- 
SITUATION ON THE GROUND 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  REVIEWING THE SITUATION IN SREBRENICA AND ZEPA, 
GRANIC ADDED LITTLE TO WHAT THE UN HAS ALREADY PUT OUT. 
HE USED THE FIGURE OF 55,000 FOR TOTAL REFUGEES AND 
NOTED THAT MILITARY AGE MEN WERE BEING SEPARATED OUT 
AND WOULD BE CHARGED WITH WAR CRIMES.  HE CALLED THE 
SERB ACTION IN CAPTURING THE "ONE TRULY DEMILITARIZED 
ZONE" IN B-H "UNJUSTIFIED," CLAIMING THAT CHARGES THAT 
MILITARY ATTACKS WERE BEING ORGANIZED FROM INSIDE 
SREBRENICA WERE GROUNDLESS AND COULD BE DISPROVED BY 
LOOKING AT THE LOW "RATIO OF WEAPONS" FOUND AMONG THE 
PEOPLE THERE.  GRANIC SAID THAT THE NEW REFUGEES WOULD 
MOSTLY END UP ON FEDERATION TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY TUZLA 
AND ZENICA, AND WOULD DESTABILIZE THE SITUATION THERE 
BY FURTHER CROWOING OF AN ALREADY-REDUCED SPACE. 
NOTING THERE HAD BEEN MORE FIGHTING AROUND ZEPA, HE 
SAID CONFIDENCE THAT THE UN WOULD DO ANYTHING TO 
PROTECT ZEPA WAS "ALMOST NIL." 
- 
------------------------------------------- 
WARMONGER MILOSEVIC AND PEACELOVING CROATIA 
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PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02622  01 OF 02  131536Z 
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¶5.  GRANIC ARGUED THAT NEITHER KARADZIC NOR MLADIC 
COULD DECIDE TO CONDUCT ACTIONS LIKE SREBRENICA WITHOUT 
MILOSEVIC'S OK.  BELGRADE WAS ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSE A 
SOLUTION BY FORCE; THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS 
"APPEASING" HIM -- HE STEPPED UP THE WAR, JUST A FEW 
DAYS AFTER A RENEWAL OF LIMITED SANCTIONS RELIEF, AND 
SUFFERED NO CONSEQUENCES. 
 
¶6.  THE GOC, SAID GRANIC, WOULD CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO 
THE LETTER AND SPIRIT OF THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT AND 
THE CONTACT GROUP PLAN.  IT WOULD NOT RESPOND TO 
PROVOCATIONS, AND WOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT. 
"EVEN THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS" WOULD NOT SWAY ZAGREB 
FROM ITS PEACEFUL COURSE.  EVENTS IN SREBRENICA WOULD 
BIND CROATIA AND B-H MORE CLOSELY, AND CROATIA WOULD 
CONTINUE ITS STRONG SUPPORT FOR BUILDING THE 
FEDERATION.  AS SOON AS THE LOGISTICS COULD BE WORKED 
OUT, TUDJMAN AND IZETBEGOVIC WOULD MEET WITH SENIOR 
FEDERATION OFFICIALS.  (NOTE:  GRANIC TOLD A/DCM JULY 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNNPTQ6397 
 
 
 
 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ6397 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02622  02 OF 02  131536Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AID-00   CIAE-00  OASY-00  SRPP-00  EB-01    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-08    L-01     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02 
      PA-01    PRS-01   P-01     SP-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-01 
      TRSE-00  USIE-00  SNIS-00  NISC-01  PRME-01  DRL-09   G-00 
        /029W 
                  ------------------D927B6  131632Z /45 
O 131625Z JUL 95 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6401 
INFO HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD// 
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-PMA/J21// 
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK 
USNMR SHAPE BE//POLAD// 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP// 
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5// 
NSC WASHDC 
NATO EU COLLECTIVE 
AMCONSUL MUNICH 
USLO SKOPJE 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION GENEVA 
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02622  02 OF 02  131536Z 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002622 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE 
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU 
 
E.O. 12356:  7/13/00 
TAGS: 
SUBJECT:  GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO 
          SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS 
          DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC 
 
10 THAT HE HAD CONCLUDED ARRANGEMENTS FOR A JULY 21 
MEETING ON BRIJUNI, WHERE TUDJMAN IS VACATIONING.) 
 
--------------------------- 
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7.  CONTINUING, GRANIC SAID CROATIA WANTED A REVIVAL OF 
THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO THAT END, URGED THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO SEEK RENEWED PROGRESS ON 
PEACE THROUGH STRONG PRESSURE ON SERBIA; TO TAKE 
IMMEDIATE STEPS TO ENSURE THAT UNCRO FULFILLED ITS 
MANDATE; NOT TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON SERBIA UNTIL IT HAD 
RECOMMITTED ITSELF TO THE PEACE PROCESS AND RECOGNIZED 
BOTH B-H AND/AND CROATIA.  THE GOVERNMENTS REPRESENTED 
AT THE BRIEFING, HE SAID, SHOULD DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE 
TO ACTIVATE THE PEACE PROCESS, INCLUDING USE OF UNPF, 
THE RAPID REACTION FORCE, AND PRESSURE ON MILOSEVIC. 
- 
----------------------- 
BIHAC, THE ONE TO WATCH 
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PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02622  02 OF 02  131536Z 
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¶8.  SEEMING ALMOST AS AN AFTERTHOUGHT, GRANLC ADDED 
THAT CROATIA WAS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED BY OBSERVED 
"MASSING OF SERB FORCES" IN THE BIHAC POCKET, 
ESPECIALLY NEAR SLUNJ.  HE SAID THAT ANY SERB ACTION TO 
TAKE BIHAC WOULD BE TAKEN "EXTREMELY SERIOUSLY."  ASKED 
LATER WHAT ACTION CROATIA WOULD TAKE IF THE SERBS 
ATTACKED BIHAC, GRANIC SAID HE HOPED IT "WOULD NOT COME 
TO THAT" BECAUSE SUCH ACTION WOULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THE 
SERBS IN "SEVERAL WAYS."  GRANIC SAID TUDJMAN'S MESSAGE 
WAS THAT IT WAS CRUCIAL TO "ACCELERATE THE PEACE 
PROCESS," AND THIS WAS WHERE CROATIA'S EFFORTS WOULD 
CONCENTRATE.  HE NOTED THE POSSIBILITY OF "INDIRECT 
HELP," E.G., SUCH AS HVO ACTION IN LIVANSKO POLJE, 
WHICH HAD "HELPED RELIEVE PRESSURE" ON THE BOSNIAN V 
CORPS WHEN BIHAC WAS THREATENED AT THE END OF LAST 
YEAR.  (NOTE: AT ONE POINT GRANIC SAID THAT AN "ATTACK 
ON BIHAC BY THE SERBS WOULD CERTAINLY WIDEN THE WAR" 
BUT THIS WAS NOT TRANSLATED BY THE INTERPRETER.) 
 
¶9.  SARAJEVO MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
KLEMP 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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