P 101457Z MAY 95
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9561
INFO AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 
AMEMBASSY MBABANE 
AMEMBASSY LUSAKA 
AMEMBASSY GABORONE 
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 
AMCONSUL DURBAN 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MASERU 
AMEMBASSY HARARE 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 005893 
 
CAPE TOWN ALSO FOR EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND POL 
LONDON FOR YOUNG, PARIS FOR MORAN/ROBL 
 
E.O.  12356:  DECL:  5/10/2025 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KPRP SF
SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA: THABO MBEKI, THE MAN WHO WOULD BE 
PRESIDENT 
 
¶1.  (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶2.  AFTER A YEAR IN OFFICE DEPUTY PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI'S 
IMAGE APPEARS A BIT TARNISHED, THE RESULT OF HIS 
QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THE FIRING OF WINNIE MANDELA, 
HIS HASTE TO CAST DOUBT ON ALLAN BOESAK'S CULPABILITY ON 
CORRUPTION CHARGES, HIS WAFFLING ON THE QUESTION OF 
INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION AND HIS ATTACKS ON THE MEDIA. 
THOUGH THE MAN WHO WOULD BE PRESIDENT REMAINS UNTOUCHED 
BY PERSONAL SCANDAL AND IS UNCHALLENGED IN HIS SENIOR 
PARTY AND GOVERNMENT POSITIONS, HIS PRINCIPAL WEAKNESS 
SEEMS TO BE THAT HE CANNOT SEE THAT ASSOCIATION WITH 
CERTAIN PEOPLE CAN BE DAMAGING TO HIM.  WHILE NELSON 
MANDELA WOULD PROBABLY LIKE TO SEE MBEKI SUCCEED HIM AS 
PRESIDENT OF THE ANC AND SOUTH AFRICA, THE GIFT IS NOT 
ENTIRELY HIS TO GIVE.  MBEKI STILL HAS THE HURDLE OF THE 
ANC'S 1997 NATIONAL CONFERENCE TO OVERCOME.  A LOT CAN 
HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, AND WE HEAR REPORTS THAT 
FORCES ALREADY ARE QUIETLY WORKING TO UNDERMINE HIM. 
HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THE KINGMAKERS OF 1999 COULD BE THE 
SEVEN ANC PROVINCIAL PREMIERS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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THE RUNNER STUMBLES 
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¶3.  MBEKI HAS GONE THROUGH A BAD PATCH OF PUBLICITY OF 
LATE.  FIRST, INSTRUCTED BY THE PRESIDENT TO FIRE ONE OF 
HIS KEY ALLIES IN THE ANC, WINNIE MANDELA, FROM THE 
CABINET HE TRIED TO TALK HER INTO APOLOGIZING.   MRS. 
MANDELA DID NOT, WRITING INSTEAD A BITTER LETTER THAT 
AMOUNTED TO AN AD HOMINEM ATTACK ON HER ESTRANGED 
HUSBAND.  FINALLY MANDELA FIRED HER HIMSELF, SKIPPING A 
FEW CONSTITUTIONALLY STIPULATED STEPS, APPARENTLY HAVING 
BEEN POORLY ADVISED.  MRS. MANDELA THREATENED TO SUE AND 
WHEN IT BECAME APPARENT SHE HAD SOLID LEGAL GROUNDS, SHE 
WAS REINSTATED, ONLY TO BE FIRED AGAIN.  IT WAS AN 
EMBARRASSING EPISODE DURING WHICH MBEKI (NOT ENTIRELY 
COINCIDENTALLY) MANAGED TO FIND HIMSELF OUT OF THE 
COUNTRY.  THE WHITE PRESS CRITICIZED MBEKI AS INDECISIVE. 
 
¶4.  NEXT, MBEKI RUSHED TO CLAIM A REPORT PREPARED BY HIS 
LEGAL ADVISOR, MOJANKU GUMBI, EXONERATED DISGRACED ANC 
WESTERN CAPE LEADER ALLAN BOESAK OF CULPABILITY IN 
CORRUPTION CHARGES.  A SENIOR ANC OFFICIAL TOLD US THAT 
BOESAK, WITH TEARS STREAMING DOWN HIS FACE, VISITED 
PRESIDENT MANDELA AT ANC HEADQUARTERS JUST PRIOR TO THE 
RELEASE OF THE REPORT'S FINDINGS TO PROCLAIM HIS 
INNOCENCE.  BASED ON MBEKI'S STATEMENT AND BOESAK'S 
DRAMATIC APPEAL, MANDELA PUBLICLY VOICED HIS CONFIDENCE 
IN BOESAK, SAYING THE LATTER SHOULD RECEIVE ANOTHER 
AMBASSADORSHIP.  BOESAK CROWED ABOUT HIS "REHABILITATION" 
AND DECLARED HE WAS READY TO SERVE HIS COUNTRY'S 
GOVERNMENT.  HOWEVER, SINCE THE INVESTIGATION BY THE 
OFFICE OF SERIOUS ECONOMIC OFFENSES HAD NOT BEEN 
CONCLUDED, THE PRESIDENT AND DEPUTY PRESIDENT'S 
STATEMENTS SMACKED OF A WHITEWASH, WHICH THE PRESS HERE 
CRITICIZED MERCILESSLY.  GUMBI SUBSEQUENTLY CLARIFIED 
THAT THE REPORT ONLY STATED THAT SHE HAD SEEN NO EVIDENCE 
IMPLICATING BOESAK OF POCKETING FOREIGN DONOR FUNDS. 
MANDELA BACKPEDALLED ON THE PROMISED APPOINTMENT, AND 
MBEKI ALLEGEDLY TOLD BOESAK TO SHUN THE SPOTLIGHT WHILE 
HE LOOKED FOR A JOB FOR HIM, POSSIBLY AT ANC 
HEADQUARTERS. 
 
¶5.  ON MAY 5, A WELL-CONNECTED ANC LAWYER TOLD US GUMBI'S 
SHORT REPORT WAS MEANT ONLY AS AN UPDATE FOR INTERNAL 
USE, NOT A FINAL, PUBLIC REPORT.  HE STRONGLY CRITICIZED 
MBEKI FOR RELEASING THE REPORT, WHILE EXPRESSING 
CONFIDENCE IN GUMBI. 
 
¶6.  MANDELA HAS ALSO GIVEN MBEKI THE LEAD IN LAYING OUT 
THE ANC'S EXPLANATIONS FOR FAILING TO ACT ON THE APRIL 
1994 AGREEMENT WITH INKATHA AND THE NP TO SEEK 
INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION OF CERTAIN OUTSTANDING 
CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES.  MBEKI WAS ALSO CHARGED WITH 
NEGOTIATING THE ISSUE WITH THE IFP AND NP.  WHILE 
PRIVATELY REASSURING TO INKATHA LEADER MANGOSUTHU 
BUTHELEZI, IN HIS PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON THE ISSUE MBEKI 
HAS TAKEN A PARTICULARLY HARD LINE.  THE ANC HAS IN 
CONSEQUENCE TAKEN A DRUBBING FROM ASSORTED PARTY 
SPOKESPERSONS, JOURNALISTS, AND OTHER OBSERVERS. 
 
¶7.  FINALLY, ACCORDING TO MEDIA REPORTS, MBEKI IN RECENT 
WEEKS HAS BEEN WHIPPING UP ANTI-PRESS SENTIMENT BOTH IN 
THE ANC'S PARLIAMENTARY CAUCUS AND THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE 
COMMITTEE (NEC).  HE BLAMED THE MEDIA FOR HIS RECENT 
TROUBLES, POINTED OUT THAT THE PRESS WAS DICTATING ANC 
DECISIONS, AND CULTIVATED A FEAR AMONG ANC ACTIVISTS THAT 
A HOSTILE PRESS WILL KEEP ANTI-ANC NEWS IN THE HEADLINES 
AS MOMENTUM BUILDS UP FOR THE NOVEMBER LOCAL GOVERNMENT 
ELECTIONS.  ONE INFLUENTIAL NEWSPAPER REPORTED THAT 
MBEKI'S SUSPICION OF THE MEDIA LED HIM TO CALL FOR RADIO 
AND TELEVISION TIME SLOTS FOR GOVERNMENT BROADCASTS. 
SOME OBSERVERS HERE INTERPRET MBEKI'S INTOLERANCE OF 
CRITICISM AS A RESIDUAL CHARACTERISTIC OF HIS DAYS IN 
EXILE, WHEN THE LIBERATION MOVEMENT BROOKED NO DISSENT. 
 
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WHEELER DEALER 
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¶8.  WHILE MBEKI MAY HAVE BEEN SCORED BY THE PRESS, HIS 
POSITION WITHIN THE ANC AND GOVERNMENT IS SECURE.  SELF- 
ASSURED, ARTICULATE AND CHARISMATIC, HE REMAINS ONE OF 
THE COUNTRY'S SHREWDEST POLITICIANS.  HE HAS PLACED HIS 
ALLIES IN KEY GOVERNMENT PORTFOLIOS, AND CONTINUES TO 
BUILD UP AND CALL IN FAVORS.  NOT STRAITJACKETED BY 
IDEOLOGY, MBEKI IS IN THE SAME PRAGMATIC CAMP AS CYRIL 
RAMAPHOSA.  IF HE HAS A WEAKNESS IT IS AN INABILITY TO 
FORESEE THE HARM THAT ASSOCIATION WITH CERTAIN PEOPLE CAN 
CAUSE. 
 
¶9.  SINCE HIS REELECTION AS ANC SECRETARY GENERAL AND THE 
DEATH OF KEY SUPPORTER JOE SLOVO, CYRIL RAMAPHOSA'S 
RIVALRY WITH MBEKI HAS SUBSIDED.  MBEKI LIEUTENANTS 
APPEAR CONCERNED THAT DEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL CHERYL 
CAROLUS IS A BECOMING A MAGNET FOR MBEKI'S ADVERSARIES. 
ANC INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DIRECTOR YUSUF SALOOJEE TOLD US 
THAT THE EMPLOYEES IN HIS OFFICE WERE BYPASSED FOR A 
RAISE GRANTED TO ALL ANC HEADQUARTERS EMPLOYEES IN 1994. 
INFORMED OF THE DISPARITY, PRESIDENT MANDELA INSTRUCTED 
CAROLUS, WHO IS IN CHARGE OF THE ANC'S DAY-TO-DAY 
OPERATIONS, BEFORE THE NATIONAL WORKING COMMITTE IN APRIL 
1995 TO RECTIFY THE SITUATION IMMEDIATELY.  SALOOJEE 
HIMSELF COLLECTED 68,000 RANDS (APPROXIMATELY USD 18,900) 
IN BACK PAY.  SALOOJEE ALSO TOLD US THAT CAROLUS, WHO IS 
CLOSE TO KEY MBEKI RIVAL MAC MAHARAJ, FAILS TO INFORM HIS 
DEPARTMENT, WHICH ACTS AS MBEKI'S EYES AND EARS AT 
HEADQUARTERS, OF IMPORTANT MEETINGS. 
 
¶10.  IN HIS GOVERNMENT OFFICES, ONE IS GREETED BY THE 
SIGHT OF MINISTERS AND PARTY OFFICIALS WAITING FOR MBEKI 
TO RECEIVE THEM AND TO TAKE ACTION ON A HOST OF PERSONAL 
AND POLITICAL MATTERS.  DUE TO POOR STAFFING AND HIS 
PUNISHING TRAVEL SCHEDULE, MUCH BUSINESS FALLS THROUGH 
THE CRACKS.  MBEKI HAS BEEN CRITICIZED FOR MISSING 
APPOINTMENTS, AND DOCUMENTS LIE IN HIS IN-BASKET FOR 
WEEKS.  HE IS CONSTITUTIONALLY UNABLE TO DELEGATE 
DECISION MAKING AUTHORITY, AND EXHAUSTS HIMSELF BY 
BECOMING EXCESSIVELY INVOLVED IN THE MOST MINUTE DETAILS 
ON A RANGE OF ISSUES. 
 
¶11.  AFTER A YEAR IN HIGH GOVERNMENT OFFICE MBEKI REMAINS 
PERSONALLY UNTAINTED BY SCANDAL.  MBEKI HAS ALWAYS LIVED 
COMFORTABLY, THANKS LARGELY TO HIS WIFE'S INCOME AS A 
UNITED NATIONS EMPLOYEE AND BANK OFFICIAL, BUT NEVER 
SUMPTUOUSLY.  A RESPECTED FEMALE JOURNALIST AND 
LONGSTANDING EMBASSY CONTACT CONFIDED TO US THAT SHE 
AVOIDS ONE-ON-ONE SESSIONS WITH MBEKI BECAUSE HE HAS MADE 
SEXUAL ADVANCES TOWARD HER.  HOWEVER, SUCH STORIES ARE 
RELATIVELY RARE, AND MBEKI HAS NOT GAINED THE REPUTATION 
OF A "WOMANIZER". 
 
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MANDELA'S SUCCESSOR? 
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¶12.  MBEKI'S MOST IMPORTANT ASSET IS THE TRUST AND 
AFFECTION OF NELSON MANDELA.  MANDELA HAS MADE HIM THE 
MR. FIX-IT OF THE GOVERNMENT AND HANDED HIM INCREASING 
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE DAY-TO-DAY ADMINISTRATION OF THE 
GOVERNMENT.  IF MANDELA COULD, HE WOULD INSTALL HIS HAND- 
PICKED CHOICE FOR SUCCESSOR IN THE PRESIDENCY OF BOTH 
PARTY AND COUNTRY IN 1997 AND 1999, RESPECTIVELY. 
HOWEVER, THE GIFT IS NOT ENTIRELY MANDELA'S TO GIVE. 
 
¶13.  MBEKI STILL HAS THE 1997 ANC NATIONAL CONFERENCE TO 
SURVIVE BEFORE HE CAN CLAIM THE MANTLE OF LEADERSHIP.  AT 
THIS WRITING IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW POLITICAL 
FORCES WITHIN THE PARTY WILL BE RANGED AT THAT TIME.  WE 
FIND IT PLAUSIBLE THAT ANC PROVINCIAL PREMIERS COULD 
BEGIN BUILDING POWER BASES AND MACHINES IN THEIR 
PROVINCES.  ASSUMING THAT NONE OF THESE SATRAPS-IN-THE- 
MAKING CHOOSES OPENLY TO CHALLENGE MBEKI FOR THE ANC 
LEADERSHIP, THEY COULD VERY WELL BECOME KINGMAKERS, WHOM 
MBEKI WILL HAVE TO COURT ASSIDUOUSLY.  INDEED, MBEKI 
SPENDS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME VISITING THE 
PROVINCES AND HANDLING ANC PROBLEMS THERE IN RECOGNITION 
OF THIS FACT. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶14.  MBEKI'S PERFORMANCE AFTER A YEAR IN OFFICE HAS 
SPARKED SOME REVISIONIST THINKING ABOUT THE MAN.  WHILE 
STILL RESPECTED FOR HIS FORMIDABLE INTELLECT AND 
POLITICAL INFIGHTING SKILLS, WE GET THE SENSE THAT SOME 
PEOPLE HERE ARE BEGINNING TO QUESTION MORE OPENLY WHAT 
MBEKI STANDS FOR.  MANDELA IS LETTING MUCH OF THE BUCK 
STOP AT HIS DEPUTY'S DESK, AND PROBLEMS AT THAT LEVEL 
HAVE PROVEN IMPERVIOUS EITHER TO HIS DISARMING CHARM OR 
THE TACTICS HE HAS SO OFTEN USED TO DEMOLISH RIVALS.  HIS 
OFFICE IS WOEFULLY STAFFED AND NOT ORGANIZED FOR HANDLING 
THIS TYPE OF RESPONSIBILITY (MANDELA'S IS NOT BETTER), 
WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE MISSTEPS OF RECENT MONTHS. 
SO FAR HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO RIDE THE TIGER, BUT IN THE 
RUNNING FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENCY MBEKI WILL BE, IN THE 
WORDS OF A RESPECTED JOURNALIST HERE, A FASCINATING 
CHARACTER TO WATCH.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
LYMAN