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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
92ZAGREB2392	1992-11-13 16:09	2011-08-30 01:44	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Zagreb

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

131609Z Nov 92

                       CONFIDENTIAL


                       CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  01 OF 09  131606Z
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1032

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
REF:  A) STATE 366041 (NOTAL) 
 
-     B) ZAGREB 1933 (NOTAL) 
-     C) ZAGREB 1920 (NOTAL) 
 
¶1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
¶2.  THIS CABLE RESPONDS TO REF A'S REQUEST FOR OUR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  01 OF 09  131606Z 
CANDID APPRAISAL OF THE REFUGEE SITUATION IN CROATIA. 
REF B CONVEYED THE GOC'S LATEST FORMAL POLICY 
STATEMENT ON REFUGEES.  REF C REPORTED A CONVERSATION 
BETWEEN CHARGE AND TUDJMAN SPECIFICALLY ON THIS TOPIC. 
 
------------------- 
SUMMARY AND COMMENT 
------------------- 
 
¶3.  CROATIA IS NOW HOST TO AT LEAST 750,000 REFUGEES 
AND DISPLACED PERSONS.  THE DIRECT DAILY COST TO THE 
CROATIAN GOVERNMENT OF SUSTAINING THESE PEOPLE IS 
SOME THREE MILLION USD -- AND RISING.  THE INDIRECT 
COSTS TO THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING SOCIAL 
AND HEALTH SERVICES, UTILITY BILLS UNPAID BY FAMILIES 
HOSTING REFUGEES, AND VISIBLE DESTRUCTION OF HOTELS 
AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE BY REFUGEES, ARE INCALCULABLY 
GREATER.  CROATIA RECEIVES FOOD, CLOTHING, AND OTHER 
IN-KIND ASSISTANCE FROM UNHCR, OTHER INTERNATIONAL 
BODIES, OTHER GOVERNMENTS, AND PVO'S, BUT IT RECEIVES 
NO/NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO HELP OFFSET EVEN THE 
DIRECT, THREE MILLION USD PER DAY BURDEN, EXCEPT FOR 
SOME VERY RECENT, COMPARATIVELY TINY SUMS FROM A 
COUPLE WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND UNHCR.  CARING FOR THE 
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED ABSORBS SOME TWENTY PERCENT OF 
CROATIA'S BUDGET AND CONTRIBUTES HEAVILY TO INFLATION 
NOW RUNNING AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF OVER 2,500 
PERCE5.  THE SOCIAL COST OF THE REFUGEE/DISPLACED 
BURDEN -- MEASURED IN LOCAL TENSION LEVELS AND 
PALPABLE PUBLIC RESENTMENT OF REFUGEES AS THE CROATS' 
LIVING STANDARD PLUMMETS -- IS LARGE AND GROWING. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  01 OF 09  131606Z 
 
¶4.  NOTWITHSTANDING CROATIA'S HARDER-LINE PUBLIC 
POSTURE OR THE FACT THAT CROATIA HAS INSTITUTED 
BORDER CONTROLS WITH B-H, IT IS NOT/NOT REFUSING TO 
ADMIT B-H REFUGEES.  ON AVERAGE, 2,000-3,000 REFUGEES 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  02 OF 09  131608Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A22EC  131916Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2686 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2380 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  02 OF 09  131608Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1033 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
ENTER CROATIA EACH WEEK/WEEK.  THIS FIGURE DOES NOT 
INCLUDE PROBABLY AN EQUAL NUMBER OF ILLEGAL REFUGEE 
ENTRANTS, OR SOME 9,000 WHO FLED TO CROATIA WITH THE 
FALL OF BOSANSKI BROD, OR THE SEVERAL THOUSAND WHO 
HAVE REACHED CROATIA IN THE WAKE OF JAJCE'S FALL AND 
AMONG WHOM TYPHOID HAS NOW BROKEN OUT IN THE ALREADY 
TENSE REGION AROUND SPLIT.  CROATIAN OFFICIALS ARE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  02 OF 09  131608Z 
LOATH TO TRUMPET THE FACT THAT THIS HEAVY REFUGEE 
FLOW CONTINUES -- INDEED, WHAT GETS PUBLICIZED HERE 
IS THEIR OCCASIONAL REFUSAL OF ENTRY -- FOR FEAR OF 
THE DESTABILIZING IMPACT THIS WOULD HAVE ON ALREADY 
STRAINED PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD THE REFUGEES. 
 
¶5.  CROATIAN MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OFFICIALS TELL US 
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO TURN BACK BY FORCE OF ARMS 
ANTICIPATED HUGE FLOWS OF REFUGEES FROM THE IMPENDING 
  CALAMITY IN B-H THIS WINTER; PRIVATELY, THEY SAY THEY 
  EXPECT TO BE CONFRONTED WITH AT LEAST 100,000 TO 
  300,000 NEW ARRIVALS.  AT THE SAME TIME, CROATIAN 
  OFFICIALS SAY THERE IS ALMOST NO UNUSED HARDENED 
  SHELTER LEFT, AND CROATIA WILL SIMPLY BE UNABLE TO 
  HOUSE ANYWHERE NEAR THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES LIKELY 
  EVEN UNDER "BEST CASE" SCENARIOS.  CROATIAN OFFICIALS 
  ARE ALSO -- HELPLESSLY, THEY ADMIT -- EXAMINING WHAT 
  THEY CALL "HORROR" SCENARIOS INVOLVING UP TO ONE 
  MILLION MORE ARRIVALS FROM B-H, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN 
  SOCIAL BREAKDOWN IN CROATIA. 
 
  ¶6.  CROATIA HAD A "GENTLEMAN'S A433.3,5" WITH THE 
  UNHCR TO MOVE EX-DETAINEES FROM B-H THROUGH THE 
  KARLOVAC TRANSIT FACILITY WITHIN 15 DAYS.  THE WAIT 
  FOR ALL BUT THE FEW WHO HAVE DEPARTED KARLOVAC HAS 
  NOW GROWN TO OVER TWO MONTHS.  DESPITE LOCAL TENSION 
  RESULTING FROM THE EXTENDED PRESENCE OF THESE 
  FREE-TO-ROAM EX-DETAINEES IN WAR-TORN, ECONOMICALLY 
  DEPRESSED KARLOVAC, THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS JUST 
  MADE AVAILABLE SOME 500-700 MORE SPACES IN THIS TOWN. 
  ITS ONGOING EFFORTS TO SECURE MORE SPACE IN OTHER 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  02 OF 09  131608Z 
  CROATIAN COMMUNITIES, HOWEVER, ARE MEETING STRONG 
  LOCAL RESISTANCE, INCLUDING THREATS OF PUBLIC 
  DISORDER FROM AUTHORITIES ALREADY GLUTTED WITH 
  REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS. 
. 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  03 OF 09  131610Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A2325  131918Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2687 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2381 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  03 OF 09  131610Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1034 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
  ¶7.  COMMENT:  ONE DISCUSSES THESE ISSUES WITH 
  KNOWLEDGEABLE CROATS AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF SOME 
  MUTUALLY-UNDERSTOOD PLAIN TRUTHS:  THE REFUGEE 
  PROBLEM IN B-H IS NOT BEING BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL; IT 
  IS GROWING.  WE ARE NOT GAINING GROUND ON THE 
  WINTERIZATION PROBLEM IN B-H; WE ARE LOSING GROUND, 
  AS MORE HOMES ARE DESTROYED EACH DAY.  THE REASON 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  03 OF 09  131610Z 
  THESE PROBLEMS ARE ESCALATING IS NEITHER THE 
  OCCASIONAL LOCAL FIREFIGHT BETWEEN CROATIAN AND 
  MUSLIM FORCES NOR BALLYHOOED CROATIAN/SERBIAN 
COLLUSION TO "CARVE UP" BOSNIA.  REFUGEES ARE BEING 
GENERATED, OVERWHELMINGLY, BY THE STILL-UNCHECKED 
ETHNIC CLEANSING OF A CONTEMPTUOUSLY ARROGANT BOSNIAN 
SERB LEADERSHIP.  THE MOST LIKELY CONSEQUENCE OF 
CROATIA'S DOING WHAT THE WEST SAYS IT WANTS CROATIA 
TO DO IN B-H, THAT IS, WITHDRAW MILITARILY, WOULD BE 
THE BOSNIAN SERBS' ROLLING UP ANOTHER 20-30 PERCENT 
OF B-H TERRITORY AND CROATIA'S BECOMING SWAMPED 
OVERNIGHT BY ANOTHER HALF MILLION REFUGEES, OR MORE. 
A SIMILAR FATE MIGHT ALREADY HAVE BEFALLEN CROATIA 
WERE IT IN FACT GUILTY OF ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H. 
DESPITE THE CLAIMS OF VARIOUS WESTERN EDITORIALISTS, 
HOWEVER, CROATIA HAS NOT/NOT CLEANSED IN B-H -- 
EITHER AS A MATTER OF POLICY OR AS A SIGNIFICANTLY 
WIDESPREAD, RECURRING PRACTICE ON THE GROUND. 
ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF BOSNIAN MUSLIMS, AND EVEN SOME 
BOSNIAN SERBS, CONTINUE TO LIVE IN RELATIVE PEACE 
WITH THEIR CROATIAN NEIGHBORS IN PARTS OF B-H 
DEFENDED BY CROATIAN OR CROATIAN/B-H GOV'T FORCES. 
AND LASTLY, CROATIA'S BORDER WITH B-H, DESPITE THE 
CURRENT CONTROLS, IS INCOMPARABLY MORE OPEN TO 
BOSNIAN REFUGEES THAN THE BORDERS OF ANY OF CROATIA'S 
CONCERNED WESTERN NEIGHBORS. 
 
¶8.  COMMENT CONT'D:  CROATS ONE SPEAKS WITH ARE 
QUIETLY FRUSTRATED AND ANGERED BY THE IMPRESSION 
OCCASIONALLY CONVEYED BY WESTERN CAPITALS THAT 
BOSNIA'S SYMPTOMS CAN AND MUST BE TREATED -- FOR 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  03 OF 09  131610Z 
EXAMPLE, BY INSISTING THAT CROATIA VIRTUALLY THROW 
OPEN ITS BORDERS TO ALL COMERS -- WHILE THE BOSNIAN 
SERB PLAGUE OF ETHNIC CLEANSING CONTINUES TO SPREAD. 
MOREOVER, THE INFORMED POPULACE HERE IS PUZZLED BY 
AND RESENTS WHAT APPEARS AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  04 OF 09  131612Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A2335  131918Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2688 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2382 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  04 OF 09  131612Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1035 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
WESTERN DIPLOMATIC ENERGY FOCUSSED ON THE SMALL, THUS 
FAR DISTRACTING MOVEMENTS OF ESSENTIALLY BIT PLAYERS 
IN BELGRADE, WHILE IT IS ABUNDANTLY CLEAR TO CROATS 
THAT -- IN SERBIA, THE KOSOVO, SECTOR EAST, SECTOR 
SOUTH, AND THE BOSNIAN SERB "CORRIDOR" -- MILOSEVIC, 
DIRECTLY OR THROUGH HIS JUNIOR PARTNERS IN WAR CRIMES, 
STILL RUNS THE SHOW. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  04 OF 09  131612Z 
 
¶9.  COMMENT CONCLUDED:  OPPORTUNISTIC SELF-INTEREST, 
GREED, ALONG WITH A LEGITIMATE DESIRE TO PROTECT 
BOSNIAN CROATS, WAS AMONG CROATIA'S MOTIVES FOR 
INTERVENING MILITARILY IN B-H IN THE FIRST PLACE. 
AND THERE REMAINS IN ZAGREB A NEAR-UBIQUITOUS, POTENT 
HERCEGOVINIAN ELEMENT WHICH STILL CRAVES ANNEXATION 
IN B-H AND DOES NOT WHOLLY TRUST TUDJMAN TO DO THEIR 
BIDDING.  WE MUST AND WE WILL, THEREFORE, CONTINUE TO 
KEEP THE CROATS' FEET TO THE FIRE.  BUT OUR AND OTHER 
WESTERN GOVERNMENTS' EXHORTATIONS TO CROATIA TO ACCEPT 
WHAT IS IN FACT AN EVER MORE SOCIALLY AND FINANCIALLY 
DESTABILIZING NUMBER OF BOSNIAN REFUGEES -- WHILE 
SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H AND CROATIA ITSELF 
CONTINUES APACE -- ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET WITH GREAT 
SYMPATHY.  DIRECT WESTERN OR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL 
ASSISTANCE TO CROATIA TO HELP IT CARRY ITS REFUGEE 
BURDEN -- COUPLED WITH AN OCCASIONAL PUBLIC 
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THAT BURDEN -- WOULD TAKE MUCH OF 
THE STING OUT OF OUR REPEATED APPROACHES. 
 
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
CROATIA STILL ACCEPTS HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES PER DAY... 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶10.  IN A NOV 11 MEETING, AT WHICH THE CHARGE PRESSED 
VICE PREMIER MATE GRANIC ON CROATIAN ADMISION OF 
REFUGEES AND EX-DETAINEES, GRANIC INSISTED ON 
PROVIDING THE FOLLOWING DETAILS ON CROATIA'S POLICY 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  04 OF 09  131612Z 
AND PRACTICE REGARDING B-H REFUGEES AND DISPLACED 
CROATS.  GRANIC SAID CROATIA STILL LEGALLY ADMITS 
HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES EACH DAY.  ASIDE FROM REFUGEES 
APPLYING INDIVIDUALLY FOR ADMISSION TO CROATIA 
ITSELF, ANYONE WITH A PLAUSIBLE DOCUMENT INDICATING 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  05 OF 09  131614Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A233D  131919Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2689 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2383 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  05 OF 09  131614Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1036 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
THEY WILL BE CARED FOR BY A FRIEND OR RELATIVE IN A 
THIRD COUNTRY IS ALLOWED TO TRANSIT CROATIA.  (NOTE: 
THE GERMAN EMBASSY SAYS IT PROCESSES AN AVERAGE OF 
1,000 SUCH CASES PER WEEK).  IN ADDITION, CROATIA 
RECENTLY ACCEPTED AN ESTIMATED 9,000 REFUGEES WHEN 
BOSANSKI BROD FELL TO SERBIAN FORCES.  IT HAS ALSO 
ACCEPTED SOME 10-20 PERCENT (LOW THOUSANDS) OF THE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  05 OF 09  131614Z 
REFUGEES FROM SERB-OVERRUN JAJCE, PARTICULARLY THOSE 
WHO WERE ILL OR NEEDED MEDICAL TREATMENT (SOME OF 
WHOM ARE NOW DIAGNOSED WITH TYPHOID). 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
...REQUIRING CASH OUTLAYS OF THREE MILLION USD PER DAY 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶11.  GRANIC ACKNOWLEDGED THAT STATISTICS ARE IMPRECISE 
BUT SAID CROATIA NOW CARES FOR AT LEAST 450,000 
MAINLY MUSLIM REFUGEES FROM B-H, 35,000 CROATIAN 
REFUGEES FROM SERBIA, AND 265,000 DISPLACED CROATS. 
GRANIC PROVIDED PER-PERSON-PER-DAY STATISTICS, BROKEN 
DOWN BY HOUSING CATEGORY, ON THE DIRECT COST TO THE 
GOC OF MAINTAINING THESE PEOPLE.  THE COMPLICATED 
MATH IN FACT WORKS OUT TO ABOUT 3 MILLION USD PER DAY, 
WHICH GOES LARGELY TOWARD TOKEN REIMBURSEMENT FOR 
ROOM AND BOARD PROVIDED BY HOTELS.  GRANIC SAID THE 
GOVERNMENT IS NOW TWO TO THREE MONTHS IN ARREARS ON 
THESE DIRECT PAYMENTS. 
 
¶12.  THE AMOUNTS THE HOTELS RECEIVE DO NOT EVEN BEGIN 
TO COVER MAINTENANCE, SUPPLIES, AND UTILITIES 
EXPENSES, LET ALONE INFRASTRUCTURE DETERIORATION, OR 
LOST OPPORTUNITY COSTS (E.G., THERE ARE NOW ONLY 180 
AVAILABLE TOURIST/BUSINESS HOTEL ROOMS IN ALL OF 
SPLIT).  GRANIC SAID THAT THE AVERAGE REFUGEE-HOUSING 
TOURIST HOTEL IS RUN DOWN TO THE POINT OF REQUIRING 
TOTAL REHABILITATION AFTER ONLY THREE MONTHS. 
(NOTE:  EMBOFFS CAN ATTEST FIRST-HAND THAT THIS 
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE.)  MOREOVER, THE GOC PROVIDES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  05 OF 09  131614Z 
THE REFUGEES FREE HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION, AND OTHER 
SOCIAL SERVICES -- AND ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOW 
UNDER SERIOUS STRAIN.  GRANIC NOTED, FOR EXAMPLE, 
THAT HOSPITAL BIRTHS IN ZAGREB ARE UP OVER 30 PERCENT. 
 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  06 OF 09  131616Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A235B  131920Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2690 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2384 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  06 OF 09  131616Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1037 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
...AND OTHER EXPENSES OF SEVERAL MILLION MORE USD/DAY 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶13.  MOST FAMILIES WHO HAVE TAKEN IN REFUGEES RECEIVE 
SOME IN-KIND SUPPORT FROM HUMANITARIAN AGENCIES BUT 
(IN CONTRAST TO FAMILIES HOUSING DISPLACED CROATS) 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  06 OF 09  131616Z 
THEY RECEIVE NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE.  CONSEQUENTLY, 
MANY OF THESE HOST FAMILIES HAVE LONG SINCE STOPPED 
PAYING FOR ELECTRICITY AND GAS, THE FULL COST OF 
WHICH THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS HAD TO PAY.  GRANIC 
CITED THE EXAMPLE OF THE TOWN OF MAKARSKA (POP. 
17,000) ON THE ADRIATIC COAST, WHOSE INHABITANTS HAVE 
TAKEN IN 20,000 REFUGEES AND 3,000 DISPLACED PERSONS 
BUT STOPPED PAYING UTILITY BILLS MONTHS AGO.  ONE 
RESULT IS THAT THE GOC IS NOW MONTHS BEHIND ON 
PAYMENTS FOR ELECTRICITY IMPORTED FROM SLOVENIA. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED HEAVILY TO HYPER-INFLATION 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶14.  PAYMENTS FOR THE REFUGEES AND DISPLACED NOW 
AMOUNT TO SOME 20 PERCENT OF CROATIA'S NATIONAL 
BUDGET.  THIS AMOUNT, COMBINED WITH THE COST OF 
SUPPORTING 275,000 UNEMPLOYED WORKERS AND 700,000 
PENSIONERS (WHO RECEIVE ON AVERAGE LESS THAN 
ONE-THIRD OF WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PAYS FOR REFUGEES IN 
HOTELS), HAS CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO A BUDGET DEFICIT 
WHICH HAS SPAWNED HYPER-INFLATION.  THE AVERAGE RATE 
OF INFLATION OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS, ANNUALIZED, 
COMES TO OVER 2,500 PERCENT.  THE GOC HAS RECEIVED 
AND EXPRESSED GRATITUDE FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF 
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN FOOD, MEDICINE, HYGENE 
SUPPLIES, CLOTHES, AND THE LIKE, BUT IT HAS RECEIVED 
ONLY TINY AMOUNTS OF AID (LOW MILLIONS) TO HELP OFFSET 
ITS DAY-TO-DAY REFUGEE/DISPLACED-RELATED EXPENSES. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  06 OF 09  131616Z 
----------------------------- 
...AND RISING SOCIAL TENSIONS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶15.  GRANIC SAID THERE IS VERY LITTLE UNOCCUPIED 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  07 OF 09  131617Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A2370  131920Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2691 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2385 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  07 OF 09  131617Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1038 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
WINTERIZED SHELTER OF ANY KIND LEFT IN CROATIA. 
70,000 B-H REFUGEES ARE STILL IN HOUSING INADEQUATE 
FOR THE COMING WINTER, ALTHOUGH GRANIC SAID THE 
CROATS HOPE SOON TO HAVE ALL THE REFUGEES MOVED INTO 
SOMETHING BETTER THAN TENTS.  (NOTE:  TODAY'S PRESS, 
HOWEVER, CLAIMS IT WILL BE LATE DECEMBER BEFORE EVEN 
THE REFUGEES NOW HERE ARE ALL MOVED OUT OF TENTS.) 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  07 OF 09  131617Z 
THE PROBLEM, HOWEVER, GOES BEYOND LIMITED PHYSICAL 
CAPACITY, GRANIC EMPHASIZED.  LOCAL AUTHORITIES ARE 
FLATLY REFUSING TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL REFUGEES AND THE 
NEAR-CERTAIN HEIGHTENED SOCIAL TENSION THAT WOULD 
ACCOMPANY THEIR ARRIVAL. 
 
¶16.  GRANIC SAID THAT CROATIAN OFFICIALS HAVE FOUND 
IT VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE AN ACCEPTABLE SITE 
FOR A SECOND TRANSIT CENTER FOR EX-DETAINEES FROM 
B-H.  WITH SOME 1,500 UNHCR-CARED FOR EX-DETAINEES 
FREE TO ROAM IN DEPRESSED, WAR-TORN KARLOVAC, 
TENSIONS BETWEEN THEM AND THE TOWNSFOLK ARE RISING. 
AS A SOP TO THE KARLOVAC AUTHORITIES, THE GOC HAS HAD 
TO BUDGET ADDITIONAL PUBLIC WORKS FOR THE COMMUNITY. 
GRANIC HIMSELF WAS FINALLY ABLE IN RECENT DAYS TO 
LOCATE SPACE FOR 500-700 MORE EX-DETAINEES IN 
KARLOVAC (WHICH APPARENTLY WILL BE USED FOR SOME OF 
THE MANJACA EX-DETAINEES EXPECTED IMMINENTLY).  BUT 
KARLOVAC HAS FLATLY REFUSED TO TAKE ANY MORE 
EX-DETAINEES, AS HAVE DJAKOVAC AND VODICE, AMONG 
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE BEEN APPROACHED.  GRANIC 
CONFIDED THAT HE NOW AVOIDS IF ALL POSSIBLE VISITING 
TOWNS WITH LARGE REFUGEES POPULATIONS, SO OFTEN HAS 
HE COME CLOSE TO BEING MOBBED BY IRATE CITIZENS.  HE 
COMMENTED THAT HE IS CALLED UPON EVERY DAY TO RESOLVE 
THREE OR FOUR LOCAL DISPUTES WHERE DISORDER IS 
THREATENED BETWEEN REFUGEES AND HOST COMMUNITIES. 
THE POTENTIAL SOCIAL PROBLEM IS COMPOUNDED BY THE 
FACT THAT REFUGEES IN CROATIA ARE NOT SUBJECT TO 
CONTROLS ON THEIR MOVEMENT.  (ANOTHER OF THE CROATS' 
NIGHTMARE SCENARIOS IS A LARGE GROUP OF NEW REFUGEES 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  07 OF 09  131617Z 
ON THE MOVE INSIDE CROATIA.) 
 
------------------------------------------ 
CROATIA REFUSES TO ABET "ETHNIC CLEANSING" 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  08 OF 09  131620Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A2383  131921Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2692 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2386 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  08 OF 09  131620Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1039 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 08 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
 
¶17.  GRANIC SAID CROATIAN POLICY ON ADMITTING 
ADDITIONAL REFUGEES IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THREE 
FACTORS IN ADDITION TO SPACE LIMITATIONS AND THE 
DIRECT COSTS INVOLVED: 
 
-    -- FIRST AND FOREMOST, CROATIA, LIKE THE UN 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  08 OF 09  131620Z 
ITSELF, WILL NOT WITTINGLY LEND DE FACTO SUPPORT TO 
SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING.  CROATIA'S PROCLAIMING A 
WIDE-OPEN BORDER WOULD RISK SETTING OFF A MASS 
MIGRATION OF POTENTIALLY OVER A MILLION PEOPLE. 
 
-    -- SECONDLY, ACTIVELY ADMITTING SUBSTANTIAL 
NUMBERS OF ADDITIONAL REFUGEES INTO CROATIA COULD 
RESULT IN A VIOLENT ERUPTION THAT WOULD TEAR APART 
THE FABRIC OF CROATIAN SOCIETY.  WITH THAT IN MIND, 
THE GOVERNMENT HAS REFRAINED FROM WIDELY PUBLICIZING 
THE COST OF MAINTAINING THE REFUGEES FOR FEAR OF 
PROVOKING ITS CITIZENS WHO HAVE SEEN THEIR STANDARD 
OF LIVING REDUCED BY OVER 50 PERCENT IN THE LAST YEAR 
AND A HALF.  (NOTE:  THE AVERAGE CROAT NOW EARNS LESS 
THAN 150 DOLLARS PER MONTH.) 
 
-    -- THIRDLY, THE GOC IS DISAPPOINTED BY THE SLOW 
RESPONSE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO THE APPEAL 
TO TAKE EX-DETAINEES TRANSITING KARLOVAC; THEY 
ARRIVED UNDER A GENTLEMAN'S AGREEMENT WITH UNHCR 
THAT THEY WOULD STAY NO MORE THEN 15 DAYS; MOST OF 
THE FIRST GROUP ARE STILL HERE OVER TWO MONTHS LATER. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
BUT CROATIA HAS NOT CLOSED ITS BORDERS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶18.  NEVERTHELESS, GRANIC SAID, CROATIA -- UNLIKE 
SLOVENIA AND ITS OTHER "WESTERN" NEIGHBORS -- HAS NOT 
CLOSED ITS BORDERS.  NOR, DESPITE FACING THE PROSPECT 
OF A MASS INFLUX IN THE COMING MONTHS, HAS CROATIA 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        ZAGREB  02392  08 OF 09  131620Z 
ANY PLANS TO BLOCK ENTRY OF HUGE GROUPS OF REFUGEES 
BY FORCE OF ARMS. 
 
¶19.  ON THIS SAME SUBJECT, CROATIAN ARMY CHIEF OF 
STAFF GENERAL TUS TOLD OUR DOD REP NOVEMBER 6 THAT 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 01        ZAGREB  02392  09 OF 09  131621Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   AGRE-00  AID-01   CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FDRE-00  HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   IO-19    LAB-04 
      L-03     ADS-00   NSAE-00  OIC-02   PA-01    PRS-01   P-01 
      RP-10    SIL-00   SP-00    SR-00    SSO-00   SS-00    STR-17 
      TRSE-00  RPE-00     /073W 
                  ------------------7A2395  131922Z /49 
O 131609Z NOV 92 
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2693 
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 
AMEMBASSY ANKARA 
AMEMBASSY ATHENS 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY MADRID 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY ROME 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 
AMEMBASSY VIENNA 
USMISSION USNATO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USVIENNA 
USIA WASHDC 2387 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        ZAGREB  02392  09 OF 09  131621Z 
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// 
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// 
CTF SIXZERO//N2// 
CTF SIXONE//N2// 
CTF SIXTWO//N2// 
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// 
FOSIF ROTA SP 
USEC BRUSSELS 
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1040 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 09 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE 
- 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH 
 
 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT:  CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: 
-         CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM 
 
CROATIA, WHILE LACKING THE MEANS TO CARE FOR A LARGE 
NEW FLOW OF REFUGEES, ALSO LACKED THE MEANS TO STOP 
THEM EVEN IF IT WANTED TO.  TUS WENT ON TO COMPLAIN, 
AS OUR DOD REP HAS ALREADY REPORTED, THAT CROATIA IS 
REPEATEDLY CHASTISED FOR NOT ACCEPTING MORE REFUGEES 
BY COUNTRIES WHICH TAKE FEW OR NO REFUGEES THEMSELVES 
AND WHICH REFUSE TO ADDRESS THE ROOT CAUSE OF 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        ZAGREB  02392  09 OF 09  131621Z 
CONTINUING REFUGEE FLOWS.  CROATIAN HOTELS, SCHOOLS, 
AND HOSPITALS ARE OVERFLOWING WITH REFUGEES, TUS 
ADDED, COMMENTING THAT CROATIA MAY FACE A HOPELESS 
SITUATION UNLESS THE WORLD TAKES DECISIVE ACTION. 
 
NEITZKE 
 
 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN

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Viewing cable 92ZAGREB2392, CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT: