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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
91BERLIN3009	1991-08-15 13:41	2011-08-30 01:44	UNCLASSIFIED	Embassy Berlin

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.


                       UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 01        BERLIN  03009  01 OF 06  151359Z
ACTION EUR-01

INFO  LOG-00   ADS-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01
      FRB-01   HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   LAB-04   L-03
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPM-01   PA-02    PM-01    PRS-01
      P-01     SIL-01   SNP-01   SP-01    SS-01    STR-18   T-01
        /053W
                  ------------------89773D  151435Z /48
FM USOFFICE BERLIN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4243
INFO EASTERN EUROPEAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMCONSUL HAMBURG
AMCONSUL STUTTGART
USDOC WASHDC
USIA WASHDC 1881
DEPTREAS WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 BERLIN 03009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER 
AND NY FED FOR GEORGE BENTLEY 
 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI FOR MACKOUR AND EICHENBERGER 
 
USIA FOR EU-HUTCHESON 
 
USDOC 4212/IEP/EUR/OWE JKLOEPFER 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        BERLIN  03009  01 OF 06  151359Z 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT:  UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST 
BY DECLINE IN SHORT-TIME LABOR 
 
REF:  A) BERLIN 2801,  B) BONN 22310 
 
SUMMARY 
/------ 
 
¶1.  OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW GERMAN STATES ROSE A 
SHARP 27 PERCENT BETWEEN JUNE AND JULY TO A TOTAL OF 
1,068,000, OR ROUGHLY 12.1 PERCENT OF THE WORKFORCE. 
STILL, THE INCREASE DID NOT FULFILL SOME DIRE PREDICTIONS 
BASED ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE EXPIRATION ON JUNE 30 
OF "NO-FIRINGS" PROVISIONS IN KEY LABOR CONTRACTS AND OF 
SEVERANCE PROGRAMS FOR FORMER GDR GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES.  A 
BROADER UNEMPLOYMENT INDICATOR, NAMELY THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 
EASTERN GERMAN WORKERS EITHER UNEMPLOYED, WORKING ON A 
"SHORT-TIME" BASIS, OR ENROLLED IN GOVERNMENT "MAKE-WORK" 
PROGRAMS, REMAINED BASICALLY STABLE AT ONE-THIRD OF THE 
WORKFORCE.  MEANWHILE, THE GAP BETWEEN MALE UNEMPLOYMENT 
(9.8 PERCENT) AND FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT (14.5 PERCENT) 
WIDENED FURTHER.  LOOKING TO THE FUTURE, FEDERAL LABOR 
OFFICE HEAD FRANKE, IN A BERLIN PRESS INTERVIEW, SUGGESTED 
THAT UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW STATES COULD REACH 1.5 
MILLION BY YEAR'S END (OVER 16 PERCENT OF THE WORKFORCE), 
WITH TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW STATES FALLING FROM THE 
1989 GDR LEVEL OF APPROXIMATELY 9 MILLION TO ABOUT SIX 
MILLION.  END SUMMARY. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        BERLIN  03009  01 OF 06  151359Z 
 
EXPECTED SHARP HIKE IN UNEMPLOYMENT ... 
/-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  AFTER TWO MONTHS OF ALMOST STABLE UNEMPLOYMENT 
FIGURES, JULY PRODUCED THE EXPECTED SUBSTANTIAL 
END-OF-QUARTER HIKE.  ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FIGURES FROM 
THE BERLIN OFFICE OF THE FEDERAL LABOR AGENCY (RESPONSIBLE 
FOR COMPILING STATISTICS ON EASTERN BERLIN AND THE FIVE 
NEW STATES), UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE FROM 843,000 (9.5 PERCENT) 
IN JUNE TO 1,069,000 (12.1 PERCENT) IN JULY, AN ABSOLUTE 
INCREASE OF 226,000.  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF WORKERS INVOLVED 
IN "SHORT-TIME" WORK PROGRAMS FELL BY 283,000, FROM 
1,909,000 IN JUNE TO 1,615,000 IN JULY.  THE OVERVIEW 
TABLE BELOW SETS FORTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND SHORT-TIME WORKER 
STATISTICS FOR MAY THROUGH JULY 1991 (SHORT-TIME WORKER 
FIGURES FOR JULY REPRESENT MID-MONTH LEVELS). 
 
TABLE 1 
          JULY UNEMPLOYMENT AND SHORT-TIME WORK 
          /------------------------------------- 
 
                             MAY         JUN         JUL 
 
UNEMPLOYMENT             842,285     842,504   1,068,639 
--PCT OF WORK FORCE          9.5         9.5        12.1 
--PCT MONTHLY INCREASE       0.6         0.0        26.8 
 
SHORT TIME WORKERS     1,968,477   1,898,937   1,615,893 
--PCT OF WORK FORCE         22.1        21.4        18.2 
--PCT MONTHLY INCREASE      (2.1)       (3.0)      (14.9) 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        BERLIN  03009  01 OF 06  151359Z 
 
NOTE:  SOME OF THE JUNE FIGURES USED IN THIS REPORT ARE 
RECENT UPDATES.  PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVES. 
 
¶3.  GEOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES IN UNEMPLOYMENT BECAME LESS 
DRAMATIC IN JULY.  THE LONG-TIME LEADER OF THE LIST, 
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN, HAD THE SECOND SMALLEST INCREASE 
THIS MONTH (PLUS 2.0 PERCENT) AND WAS REPLACE BY EAST 
BERLIN IN THE NUMBER-ONE POSITION.  EAST BERLIN PROBABLY 
OWED ITS INCREASE OF 18,000 IN UNEMPLOYMENT TO ITS 
DISPROPORTIONATE SHARE OF GDR-ERA GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES 
WHO WERE FINALLY TERMINATED AT THE END OF JUNE.  HOWEVER, 
EAST BERLIN MAINTAINED ITS EXTREMELY LOW PERCENTAGE OF 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 01        BERLIN  03009  02 OF 06  151400Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ADS-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FRB-01   HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   LAB-04   L-03 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPM-01   PA-02    PM-01    PRS-01 
      P-01     SIL-01   SNP-01   SP-01    SS-01    STR-18   T-01 
        /053W 
                  ------------------897809  151441Z /48 
R 151341Z AUG 91 
FM USOFFICE BERLIN 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4244 
INFO EASTERN EUROPEAN POSTS COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMCONSUL HAMBURG 
AMCONSUL STUTTGART 
USDOC WASHDC 
USIA WASHDC 1882 
DEPTREAS WASHDC 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 06 BERLIN 03009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER 
AND NY FED FOR GEORGE BENTLEY 
 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI FOR MACKOUR AND EICHENBERGER 
 
USIA FOR EU-HUTCHESON 
 
USDOC 4212/IEP/EUR/OWE JKLOEPFER 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        BERLIN  03009  02 OF 06  151400Z 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT:  UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST 
 
SHORT-TIME WORKERS AND WAS, THEREFORE, STILL IN THE BEST 
OVERALL POSITION OF ALL EASTERN STATES.  SAXONY CONTINUED 
TO ENJOY THE LOWEST LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT, ALTHOUGH IT 
SUFFERED THE HIGHEST NET INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT OF ALL 
(PLUS 2.8 PERCENT).  SAXONY-ANHALT AND THURINGIA REMAINED 
CLOSE TO AVERAGE IN UNEMPLOYMENT BUT LED THE LIST IN 
SHORT-TIME WORK; BRANDENBURG COMBINED AVERAGE 
UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES WITH A LOW SHORT-TIME WORKER TOTAL. 
 
TABLE 2 
                 UNEMPLOYMENT BY STATE 
                 /-------------------- 
                   MAY  PCT       JUN  PCT       JUL   PCT 
MECKLENBURG- 
VORPOMMERN     124,149 12.1   122,738 11.9   143,635  13.9 
BRANDENBURG    130,171  9.5   130,199  9.5   165,097  12.1 
SAXONY-ANHALT  153,778  9.5   156,797  9.7   197,747  12.2 
SAXONY         218,484  8.3   214,889  8.1   288,198  10.9 
THURINGIA      135,752  9.3   136,453  9.4   174,254  12.0 
EAST BERLIN     79,951 11.2    81,428 11.4    99,708  14.0 
 
TOTAL          842,285  9.5   842,504  9.5 1,068,639  12.1 
 
... OFFSET BY A DROP IN SHORT-TIME LABOR 
/--------------------------------------- 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        BERLIN  03009  02 OF 06  151400Z 
¶4.  IN JULY, THE NUMBER OF SHORT-TIME WORKERS IN THE NEW 
STATES SHRANK BY A RECORD 283,000.  THE IMPLICIT AMOUNT 
OF UNEMPLOYMENT HIDDEN IN THE SHORT-TIME WORK PROGRAM -- 
I.E., UNEMPLOYMENT CALCULATED USING THE PERCENTAGE OF 
TIME DURING WHICH EMPLOYEES WERE NOT WORKING -- DROPPED 
FROM 1,078,000, (12.3 PERCENT) TO 906,000 (10.3 
PERCENT).  THE DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SHORT-TIMERS 
CLEARLY OUTPACED THE INCREASE IN THE RANKS OF THE NEWLY 
JOBLESS IN EVERY STATE.  BRANDENBURG REGISTERED THE BEST 
RATIO:  52,000 WORKERS ENDED SHORT-TIME WORK WITH ONLY 
35,000 ENTERING UNEMPLOYMENT. 
 
TABLE 3 
                    SHORT-TIME WORKERS 
                    /----------------- 
-                MAY   PCT       JUN   PCT       JUL   PCT 
MECKLENBURG- 
VORPOMMERN   225,557  22.0   214,580  20.8   188,734  18.3 
BRANDENBURG  296,242  21.6   290,671  21.2   238,815  17.5 
SAXONY-ANH.  369,898  22.8   368,139  22.8   318,827  19.7 
SAXONY       632,555  23.8   586,366  22.1   497,299  18.8 
THURINGIA    354,958  24.3   350,689  24.2   304,347  21.0 
EAST BERLIN   89,267  12.5    88,492  12.4    67,871   9.5 
 
TOTAL      1,968,477  22.1 1,898,937  21.4 1,615,893  18.3 
 
¶5.  FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR, THE NUMBER OF 
SHORT-TIME WORKERS WORKING LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF THEIR 
REGULAR WORK SCHEDULES SHRANK FASTER THAN THE NUMBER OF 
SHORT-TIMERS WITH LONGER WORKING HOURS. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        BERLIN  03009  02 OF 06  151400Z 
TABLE 4 
                  SHORT-TIME WORKERS: 
                 ACTUAL TIME ON THE JOB 
                 /--------------------- 
                                                   PCT CHG 
WORKING                MAY          JUN        JUL JUN-JUL 
 
LESS THAN 1/2 TIME 1,129,566  1,119,158   914,648  (18.3) 
1/2 TIME AND MORE    838,911    779,779   701,245  (10.1) 
 
NOTE:  PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVE 
 
¶6.  IN MANY INDUSTRIAL SECTORS, SHORT-TIME WORK PROGRAMS 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 01        BERLIN  03009  03 OF 06  151401Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ADS-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FRB-01   HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   LAB-04   L-03 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPM-01   PA-02    PM-01    PRS-01 
      P-01     SIL-01   SNP-01   SP-01    SS-01    STR-18   T-01 
        /053W 
                  ------------------89782A  151443Z /48 
R 151341Z AUG 91 
FM USOFFICE BERLIN 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4245 
INFO EASTERN EUROPEAN POSTS COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMCONSUL HAMBURG 
AMCONSUL STUTTGART 
USDOC WASHDC 
USIA WASHDC 1883 
DEPTREAS WASHDC 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 06 BERLIN 03009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER 
AND NY FED FOR GEORGE BENTLEY 
 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI FOR MACKOUR AND EICHENBERGER 
 
USIA FOR EU-HUTCHESON 
 
USDOC 4212/IEP/EUR/OWE JKLOEPFER 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        BERLIN  03009  03 OF 06  151401Z 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT:  UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST 
 
COVER OVER 50 PERCENT OF WORKERS.  THE TABLE BELOW 
OUTLINES USAGE IN JULY OF SHORT-TIME WORK IN SPECIFIC 
INDUSTRIES.  ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE 
RELATIVE FATE OF SPECIFIC INDUSTRIES, GIVEN THAT 
UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON THE CHANGES OF TOTAL WORKFORCE 
IN THE INDUSTRIES IS UNAVAILABLE, IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT 
DECLINES IN SHORT-TIME WORK ARE CLOSE TO OR HIGHER THAN 
THE OVERALL INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE INDUSTRIES 
LISTED. 
 
TABLE 5 
                   SHORT-TIME WORKERS 
              IN SELECTED INDUSTRIAL SECTORS: 
              /------------------------------ 
 
                                                 PCT CHG 
                        MAY       JUN        JUL JUN-JUL 
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 
-  MINING            86,279    86,240     76,803   (10.9) 
-  CHEMICALS        115,657   109,739     90,787   (17.3) 
-  METAL WORKING     32,291    31,191     26,855   (13.9) 
-  METAL FORMING     62,274    58,542     45,597   (22.1) 
-  MACHINE BUILDING 208,404   200,126    162,859   (18.6) 
-  AUTOMOTIVE        62,307    62,080     49,751   (19.9) 
-  SHIP BUILDING      9,085     8,557      7,655   (10.5) 
-  ELECTRO-TECH     205,662   203,319    153,184   (24.7) 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        BERLIN  03009  03 OF 06  151401Z 
-  METALLURGY        39,486    35,842     31,126   (13.2) 
-  WOOD-WORKING      38,295    38,005     30,438   (19.9) 
-  TEXTILES         124,530   118,624    105,455   (11.1) 
-  CONSTRUCTION     112,761   103,220     87,453   (15.3) 
 
NOTE:  PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVE 
 
GOVERNMENT MAKE-WORK PROGRAMS 
/---------------------------- 
 
¶7.  THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S TEMPORARY JOB 
PROGRAM (ARBEITSBESCHAFFUNGSMASSNAHMEN - ABM) CONTINUED 
TO PROGRESS IN JULY.  SOME 210,000 POSITIONS WERE FILLED 
BY THE END OF JULY, WHICH REPRESENTED 2.4 PERCENT OF THE 
TOTAL WORKFORCE AND A 42 PERCENT INCREASE OVER THE 
RESPECTIVE JUNE FIGURE.  THE USAGE OF ABM IS NOW COMING 
CLOSE TO THE FUNDING TARGET OF 280,000 POSITIONS, A 
NOTABLE CONTRIBUTION TO THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORT TO KEEP 
UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES DOWN. 
 
TABLE 6 
                 USAGE OF ABM MEASURES 
                 /-------------------- 
 
                           MAY     JUN     JUL    TARGET 
 
POSITIONS FILLED        113,599 148,235 209,907   280,000 
MONTHLY INCR., PCT         29.5    30.5    41.6 
PCT OF TOTAL WORKFORCE      1.3     1.6     2.4       3.2 
 
¶8.  USAGE OF THE ABM PROGRAM WAS MOST PRONOUNCED IN 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        BERLIN  03009  03 OF 06  151401Z 
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN (2,9 PERCENT OF THE WORKFORCE), 
AND LEAST DEVELOPED IN EAST BERLIN (1.0 PERCENT), WHERE 
PROBABLY MORE ALTERNATIVES ARE AVAILABLE THAN IN THE 
OTHER NEW STATES. 
 
TABLE 7 
                    ABM MEASURES BY STATES 
                    /--------------------- 
                 MAY   PCT       JUN   PCT       JUL   PCT 
MECKLENBURG- 
VORPOMMERN   20,402   2.0    24,267   2.4    30,147   2.9 
BRANDENBURG  19,385   1.4    26,497   1.9    34,368   2.5 
SAXONY-ANH.  20,969   1.3    26,998   1.7    39,713   2.5 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 01        BERLIN  03009  04 OF 06  151401Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ADS-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FRB-01   HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   LAB-04   L-03 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPM-01   PA-02    PM-01    PRS-01 
      P-01     SIL-01   SNP-01   SP-01    SS-01    STR-18   T-01 
        /053W 
                  ------------------89783C  151443Z /48 
R 151341Z AUG 91 
FM USOFFICE BERLIN 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4246 
INFO EASTERN EUROPEAN POSTS COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMCONSUL HAMBURG 
AMCONSUL STUTTGART 
USDOC WASHDC 
USIA WASHDC 1884 
DEPTREAS WASHDC 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 06 BERLIN 03009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER 
AND NY FED FOR GEORGE BENTLEY 
 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI FOR MACKOUR AND EICHENBERGER 
 
USIA FOR EU-HUTCHESON 
 
USDOC 4212/IEP/EUR/OWE JKLOEPFER 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        BERLIN  03009  04 OF 06  151401Z 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT:  UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST 
 
SAXONY       27,979   1.1    39,631   1.5    59,724   2.3 
THURINGIA    21,866   1.5    268959   1.9    38,764   2.7 
EAST BERLIN   2,998   0.4     3,947   0.6     7,191   1.0 
 
TOTAL      113,599    1.3    148,235  1.7    209,907  2.4 
 
GOVERNMENT SPONSORED RETRAINING 
/------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  THE GOVERNMENT-FINANCED RETRAINING PROGRAM IS 
CERTAINLY AMONG THE MORE MINOR MEASURES AGAINST 
UNEMPLOYMENT BOTH IN TERMS OF FUNDING AND PARTICIPATION. 
HOWEVER, IN THE LONG TERM IT IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT 
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS GIVEN THE GOVERNMENT'S GOAL OF 
PROVIDING THE UN- AND UNDEREMPLOYED WITH THE SKILLS 
NECESSARY TO COMPETE IN THE CHANGING LABOR MARKET OF THE 
FUTURE.  THE PROGRAM HAS GROWN IN POPULARITY, WITH THE 
NUMBER OF NEW RETRAINING CONTRACTS RISING FROM 81,000 IN 
JUNE TO 96,000 IN JULY.  GIVEN THAT THERE ARE NO FIGURES 
AVAILABLE FOR THE TOTAL OF WORKERS ENROLLED IN RETRAINING 
PROGRAMS AT ANY ONE TIME, IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE 
PROGRESS TOWARD THE OFFICIAL TARGET OF 350,000 
RETRAINEES.  THE GOVERNMENT'S CURRENT EFFORT IN CREATING 
NEW CENTRALIZED MAKE-WORK ORGANIZATIONS 
(ARBEITSFOERDERUNGS- GESELLSCHAFTEN, ABS), DESIGNED TO 
COORDINATE THE CREATION OF ABM AS WELL AS OF RETRAINING 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        BERLIN  03009  04 OF 06  151401Z 
MEASURES, MAY HELP TO IMPROVE THESE STATISTICS. 
 
TABLE 8 
              USAGE OF RETRAINING MEASURES 
              /--------------------------- 
 
                           MAY      JUN     JUL  TARGET 
 
NEW TRAINING CONTRACTS  69,508   81,263  95,614  350,000 
PCT MONTHLY INCR          (4.8)     6.9    17.7 
PCT OF WORKFORCE           0.8      0.9     1.1      4.0 
 
NOTE:  PARENTHESES DENOTE NEGATIVE 
 
NUMBER OF WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT STABILIZING 
/-------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶10.  TO OBTAIN A BROADER PICTURE OF THE OVERALL SITUATION 
IN THE EMPLOYMENT MARKET IN THE NEW STATES, IT IS USEFUL 
TO COMBINE FIGURES FROM THE UNEMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TIME 
WORK, AND ABM STATISTICS, FOLLOWING THE ASSUMPTION THAT 
ABM AND SHORT-TIME WORK ARE SIMPLY TWO MORE FACETS OF 
UNEMPLOYMENT.  ABM IN THE NEW STATES IS A PROGRAM 
SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED TO KEEP THE UNEMPLOYED OFF THE 
DOLE, WHILE SHORT-TIME WORK PROGRAMS KEEP IDLE WORKERS 
WITH THEIR EMPLOYERS EVEN IF THE REASONS FOR THE WORK 
SHORTAGE ARE NOT TEMPORARY BUT STRUCTURAL.  IN THE 
CURRENT SITUATION, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF 
SHORT-TIME WORKERS AND ABM WORKERS WILL LOSE THEIR JOBS 
WHEN THE GOVERNMENT FUNDING FOR THE PROGRAMS RUNS OUT. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        BERLIN  03009  04 OF 06  151401Z 
¶12.  THE TABLES BELOW OUTLINE THE COMBINED NUMBERS OF 
WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TIME WORK AND ABM 
MEASURES.  FOR EACH NEW STATE, IT APPEARS THAT TOTAL 
NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED BASICALLY STABLE SINCE APRIL, WITH 
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN, BRANDENBURG AND SAXONY ACTUALLY 
SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER RECENT MONTHS. 
 
TABLE 9 
 
              WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT 
              /------------------------------- 
 
                 APRIL      MAY        JUNE      JULY 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 01        BERLIN  03009  05 OF 06  151402Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ADS-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FRB-01   HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   LAB-04   L-03 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPM-01   PA-02    PM-01    PRS-01 
      P-01     SIL-01   SNP-01   SP-01    SS-01    STR-18   T-01 
        /053W 
                  ------------------897874  151445Z /48 
R 151341Z AUG 91 
FM USOFFICE BERLIN 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4247 
INFO EASTERN EUROPEAN POSTS COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMCONSUL HAMBURG 
AMCONSUL STUTTGART 
USDOC WASHDC 
USIA WASHDC 1885 
DEPTREAS WASHDC 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 05 OF 06 BERLIN 03009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER 
AND NY FED FOR GEORGE BENTLEY 
 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI FOR MACKOUR AND EICHENBERGER 
 
USIA FOR EU-HUTCHESON 
 
USDOC 4212/IEP/EUR/OWE JKLOEPFER 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        BERLIN  03009  05 OF 06  151402Z 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT:  UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST 
 
 
MECKLENBURG- 
VORPOMMERN       370,060    370,018    361,585   362,516 
BRANDENBURG      438,020    445,798    447,367   438,280 
SAXONY-ANHALT    545,992    544,645    551,934   556,287 
SAXONY           897,855    879,018    840,886   845,221 
THURINGIA        517,490    512,576    514,037   517,365 
EAST BERLIN      171,312    172,219    173,867   174,770 
 
TOTAL          2,940,729  2,924361   2,889,676 2,894,439 
 
TABLE 10 
 
        WORKERS AFFECTED - PERCENT OF WORKFORCE 
        /-------------------------------------- 
 
                 APRIL      MAY        JUNE      JULY 
 
MECKLENBURG- 
VORPOMMERN       36.1       36.1       35.1      35.1 
BRANDENBURG      32.0       32.5       32.6      32.1 
SAXONY-ANHALT    33.8       33.6       34.1      34.3 
SAXONY           34.1       33.4       31.7      32.0 
THURINGIA        35.4       35.1       35.4      35.6 
EAST BERLIN      24.0       24.1       24.3      24.5 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        BERLIN  03009  05 OF 06  151402Z 
TOTAL            33.4       33.0       32.6      32.8 
 
JOB VACANCIES INCREASING 
/----------------------- 
 
¶12.  FIGURES FROM THE EMPLOYMENT OFFICES' JOB REFERRAL 
STATISTICS SUGGEST A POSITIVE TREND IN THE LABOR MARKET. 
SINCE FEBRUARY, THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY INCREASE IN THE 
NUMBER OF JOB VACANCIES REGISTERED WITH THE LABOR 
OFFICES, WITH THE JULY TOTAL OF 113,100 ALMOST FOUR TIMES 
THE COMPARABLE FEBRUARY OF 29,600.  IN JULY, LABOR 
OFFICES PLACED 95,900 PERSONS IN NEW JOBS, DOUBLE THE MAY 
PLACEMENT RATE.  HOWEVER, AS IN MAY, ROUGHLY TWO-THIRDS 
OF THESE NEW POSITIONS WERE IN ABM JOBS (IN JULY, 61,700 
OR 64 PERCENT OF NEW JOB PLACEMENTS WERE IN ABM JOB 
PROGRAMS). 
 
OTHER FACTORS TEMPERING UNEMPLOYMENT 
/----------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  MEANWHILE, THE WORKFORCE CONTINUES TO SHRINK.  THE 
FEDERAL LABOR OFFICE REPORTED THAT (AS OF JULY) SOME 
549,900 OLDER PERSONS HAD LEFT THE RANKS OF THE WORKING 
POPULATION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SPECIAL EARLY RETIREMENT 
PROGRAMS FOR UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE OVER 55 YEARS OLD.  THESE 
NUMBERS, IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGHLY 700,000 PERSONS WHO 
HAVE MOVED WESTWARD SINCE 1989, IMPLY AN ACTUAL WORK 
FORCE IN EASTERN GERMANY OF WELL UNDER 8.0 MILLION (THE 
OFFICIAL NUMBER IS STILL 8.87 MILLION).  WE NOTE COMMENTS 
BY FEDERAL LABOR OFFICE CHAIRMAN FRANKE, IN AN INTERVIEW 
IN THE AUGUST 12 EDITION OF "DER TAGESSPIEGEL," 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        BERLIN  03009  05 OF 06  151402Z 
SUGGESTING THAT THE LABOR FORCE WILL HAVE DECLINED TO 
THIS RANGE BY DECEMBER, WITH SOME SIX MILLION PEOPLE 
EMPLOYED AND ANOTHER 1.5 MILLION ON THE JOBLESS ROLLS. 
 
DEMOGRAPHICS: WOMEN MORE LIKELY TO BE JOBLESS 
/-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶14.  THE JULY HIKE IN UNEMPLOYMENT WAS ESPECIALLY HARSH 
ON WOMEN.  WHILE MALE UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE FROM 8.0 TO 9.8 
PERCENT (UP 1.8 PERCENT), FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT WENT UP 
FROM 11.2 TO 14.5 PERCENT (A JUMP OF 3.3 PERCENT). 
UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG WOMEN IS NOW ALMOST 50 PERCENT HIGHER 
THAN AMONG MEN.  SOME INCIDENTAL MATERIAL FROM THE 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 01        BERLIN  03009  06 OF 06  151403Z 
ACTION EUR-01 
 
INFO  LOG-00   ADS-00   AMAD-01  CIAE-00  DODE-00  ANHR-01  EB-01 
      FRB-01   HA-09    H-01     INRE-00  INR-01   LAB-04   L-03 
      NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OMB-01   OPM-01   PA-02    PM-01    PRS-01 
      P-01     SIL-01   SNP-01   SP-01    SS-01    STR-18   T-01 
        /053W 
                  ------------------89789A  151446Z /48 
R 151341Z AUG 91 
FM USOFFICE BERLIN 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4248 
INFO EASTERN EUROPEAN POSTS COLLECTIVE 
AMEMBASSY BONN 
AMCONSUL HAMBURG 
AMCONSUL STUTTGART 
USDOC WASHDC 
USIA WASHDC 1886 
DEPTREAS WASHDC 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 06 OF 06 BERLIN 03009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT PASS FEDERAL RESERVE FOR LEWIS ALEXANDER 
AND NY FED FOR GEORGE BENTLEY 
 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI FOR MACKOUR AND EICHENBERGER 
 
USIA FOR EU-HUTCHESON 
 
USDOC 4212/IEP/EUR/OWE JKLOEPFER 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        BERLIN  03009  06 OF 06  151403Z 
 
E.O. 12356: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB PGOV GM EIND GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB GM ELAB
SUBJECT:  UNEMPLOYMENT UP SHARPLY IN JULY, BUT RISE OFFEST 
 
EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS INDICATES THAT WOMEN BELOW 25 YEARS 
OF AGE ARE LESS HARD HIT (13 PERCENT ABOVE MALE 
UNEMPLOYMENT) AND THAT THE DIFFERENCE IN UNEMPLOYMENT 
LEVELS INCREASES WITH AGE. 
 
COMMENT 
/------ 
 
¶15.  THE JULY UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES WERE PERHAPS MOST 
NOTABLE FOR THE FACT THAT THE INCREASE IN JOBLESSNESS WAS 
LESS THAN IT COULD HAVE BEEN:  A RISE OF "ONLY" 226,000. 
THIS WAS LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF THE 770,000 
STILL-EMPLOYED WORKERS REGISTERED WITH THE FEDERAL 
EMPLOYMENT OFFICE FOR JOB REFERRAL, IN THE EXPECTATION, 
IN THE MAJORITY OF CASES, OF TERMINATION SOONER OR 
LATER.  WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND EXPIRED SHORT-TIME 
CONTRACTS AND A COMPARABLE NUMBER RELEASED FROM THE 
LONG-TERM SEPARATION PLAN FOR EX-GDR GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES 
("WARTESCHLEIFE"), THE INCREASE OF UNEMPLOYMENT COULD, IN 
FACT, HAVE BEEN DRAMATICALLY HIGHER. 
 
¶16.  IN ADDITION, SEVERAL SOURCES, INCLUDING A SURVEY OF 
BERLIN AND BRANDENBURG COMPANIES, INDICATE THAT THE 
ACTUAL NUMBER OF TERMINATIONS AT THE END OF JUNE WAS 
ABOUT ONE-THIRD LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY PLANNED.  ACCORDING 
TO PRESS ANALYSIS, MANY COMPANIES MAY HAVE DECIDED TO 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        BERLIN  03009  06 OF 06  151403Z 
WAIT FOR THE NEWLY PLANNED CENTRALIZED MAKE-WORK 
CORPORATIONS (ARBEITSFOERDERUNGSGESELLSCHAFTEN) TO COME 
INTO THEIR OWN, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR AN EASIER 
TRANSITION FROM SHORT-TIME WORK TO ABM AND RETRAINING FOR 
LARGE NUMBERS OF EMPLOYEES.  UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR, 
THE INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT CAN THEREFORE BE EXPECTED TO 
BE MODEST.  IN HIS "DER TAGESSPIEGEL" INTERVIEW, FEDERAL 
LABOR OFFICE CHAIRMAN FRANKE SPOKE OF A 12 PERCENT 
AVERAGE LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN 1991 (WITH THE 
IMPLICATION THAT, GIVEN LOWER FIGURES IN THE FIRST HALF 
YEAR, UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR WOULD AVERAGE 
OVER 14 PERCENT) WITH JOBLESS TOTALS REACHING 1.5 MILLION 
OR 16.9 PERCENT BY DECEMBER.  STILL, THE EXPECTED 
INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT COULD BE MATCHED BY A DECREASE 
IN SHORT-TIME WORK, MEANING THAT THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 
WORKERS AFFECTED BY UNEMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TIME WORK, OR ABM 
WOULD REMAIN MORE-OR-LESS STABLE.  MUCH DEPENDS ON 
GOVERNMENT DECISIONS ON A POSSIBLE FURTHER EXTENSION OF 
THE REMAINING SHORT-TIME PROGRAMS AND ON PROGRESS MADE BY 
THE CENTRALIZED MAKE-WORK CORPORATIONS.  LOOKING TOWARD 
NEXT YEAR, JANUARY TERMINATIONS COULD AGAIN BE 
SUBSTANTIAL, SOME EXPERTS BELIEVE, WITH A GENERAL 
TURN-AROUND IN THE LABOR MARKET NOT EXPECTED BEFORE LATER 
IN 1992, LAGGING SOMEWHAT ANY GENERAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY 
IN THE NEW STATES.  MILES 
 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNNN

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