P 281315Z FEB 90
FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6411
INFO AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
AMEMBASSY DOHA
AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
AMEMBASSY MANAMA
AMEMBASSY MUSCAT
AMEMBASSY RIYADH
AMEMBASSY SANAA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
FBIS LONDON UK
FBIS RESTON VA
CJTFME
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 01208 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA DAS GNEHM 
 
E.O. 12356:  DECL:  OADR 
TAGS: PREL ECON IR US
SUBJECT:  HARDLINERS CONTINUE ATTACK ON RAFSANJANI ON 
          ECONOMIC PLANS, INSIST HOSTILITY TO AMERICANS 
          MUST CONTINUE 
 
REF:  (A) FBIS LONDON PM 2102110090 DTG 211100Z FEB 90 
-     (B) FBIS LONDON RD 2302161790 DTG 231617Z FEB 90 
-     (C) FBIS LONDON LD 2302164690 DTG 231646Z FEB 90 
-     (D) FBIS LONDON LD 2202111190 DTG 221111Z FEB 90 
 
¶1.  SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT. 
- 
¶2.  SUMMARY:  MOHTASHEMI IS CONTINUING HIS DIRECT ATTACK 
ON RAFSANJANI THROUGH THE FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC PLAN.  HE 
STRESSES THE NEED TO RELY ON FAITH AND MARTYRDOM AND TO 
REJECT TECHNOLOGY AND DIPLOMACY AS WAYS OF DEALING WITH 
THE WEST.  HE COUPLES THIS TO DEMANDS THAT "DEATH TO 
AMERICA" REMAIN  A BASIC PRINCIPLE OF THE REVOLUTION. 
ARDABILI ADDS FURTHER ATTACKS, AND BOTH ARE REINVIGORATING 
THE CALLS FOR RUSHDIE'S DEATH AND LINKING ANY WATERING 
DOWN OF THIS POLICY WITH APPEASEMENT OF THE U.S. AND U.K. 
WITH RAFSANJANI HAVING TO DEFEND HIMSELF ON THE ECONOMY 
AND THE PRINCIPLES OF THE REVOLUTION IT IS UNLIKELY 
THAT HE WOULD FIND THE MOMENT PROPITIOUS TO FIGHT ON A 
SECOND FRONT AND TRY TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. 
IN OUR VIEW, THIS IS THE CURRENT REALITY OF IRANIAN 
POLITICS.  THE RECENT TEHRAN TIMES EDITORIAL (REF D) 
CALLING FOR RELEASE OF THE HOSTAGES HAS NEITHER BEEN 
PICKED UP BY THE PERSIAN-LANGUAGE PRESS NOR ECHOED BY 
RAFSANJANI.  WE DOUBT IT IS A SERIOUS INDICATOR OF 
POLICY CHANGE.  END SUMMARY. 
- 
¶3.  IN AN EXTENSIVE INTERVIEW RUN IN KEYHAN HAVAI ON 
FEBRUARY 7 (REF A), MAJLIS MEMBER AND FORMER INTERIOR 
MINISTER MOHTASHEMI NEVER MENTIONS RAFSANJANI BY NAME 
BUT LAYS DOWN CHALLENGES TO HIS PROGRAM.  MOHTASHEMI 
BEGINS BY DENYING THAT ANY REEVALUATION OF THE 
REVOLUTION IS NECESSARY; RATHER, IT IS BACKSLIDING FROM 
REVOLUTIONARY PRINCIPLES WHICH HAS CAUSED IRAN'S 
WEAKNESS.  HE SAYS THAT WHEN IRAN DEPENDED ON HEZBOLLAH 
AND MARTYRDOM IT SUCCEEDED; WHEN IT RELIED ON TECHNOLOGY 
AND DIPLOMACY, IT FAILED. 
- 
¶4.  WITHOUT MENTIONING THE FIVE-YEAR PLAN DIRECTLY, 
HE ATTACKS ITS BASIC DIRECTIONS, REPEATING CRITICISMS 
MADE DURING THE MAJLIS DEBATES.  ONE OF HIS TARGETS IS 
THE PRIVATE SECTOR.  "TODAY WE ARE AGAIN MOVING IN THE 
WRONG DIRECTION."  PROFITS ARE BEING DIRECTED TO THE 
PRIVATE SECTOR.  "AS A RESULT, THE PROFITS WILL ONCE 
AGAIN GO TO THE POCKETS OF A SPECIAL GROUP OF PEOPLE. 
THE MASSES CANNOT BENEFIT FROM THIS PROGRAM." 
MOHTASHEMI WILL PROBABLY FIND SUPPORT FOR THIS ATTACK 
SINCE PROFITEERS ARE BENEFITING FROM RAFSANJANI'S FREE 
MARKET POLICIES. 
- 
¶5.  ANOTHER TARGET IS THE PLAN'S EMPHASIS ON INDUSTRIALI- 
ZATION.  MOHTASHEMI ARGUES THIS WILL ONLY MAKE IRAN 
DEPENDENT ON FOREIGNERS FOR PARTS AND MATERIALS.  THIS 
IS A STRONG THEME IN A NATION WHICH BELIEVES OVER- 
WHELMINGLY THAT THE HISTORY OF THE LAST 100 YEARS IS ONE 
OF SUFFERING FROM FOREIGN DOMINATION, FIRST BRITISH AND 
THEN AMERICAN.  MOHTASHEMI CALLS FOR A BASIC 
REORIENTATION FROM FAVORING INDUSTRY TO FAVORING 
AGRICULTURE AND SAYS THIS WAS KHOMEINI'S COMMAND. 
- 
¶6.  HE DEALS AT LENGTH WITH THE NEED FOR HOSTILITY 
TO AMERICA.  "DEATH TO AMERICA" IS A PRINCIPLE OF THE 
IMAM.  SLOGANS ARE BASIC TO THE REVOLUTION.  IF THE 
SLOGAN OF DEATH TO AMERICAN IS REMOVED, THE PEOPLE WILL 
NOT RECOGNIZE THEIR ENEMY.  ANIMOSITY AND HATE MUST FIND 
A PERMANENT PLACE IN PEOPLE'S HEARTS.  WITHOUT 
QUALIFICATION HE REJECTS RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES. 
- 
¶7.  MOHTASHEMI CRITICIZES THE AUTHORITIES FOR WEAKNESS 
IN IMPLEMENTING THE DEATH DECREE ON SALMAN RUSHDIE, 
THROUGH LACK OF DIRECT ACTION AND INADEQUATE THEOLOGICAL 
DEFENSE OF THE DECREES THROUGHOUT THE WORLD.  THE 
RUSHDIE THEME IS PICKED UP AGAIN IN A FEBRUARY 23 SERMON 
OF MUSAVI-ARDABILI (REF B), WHO ADDS, "THE ISSUE 
CONCERNS AMERICA; THE ISSUE CONCERNS ENGLAND.  IT IS 
ABOUT ATTEMPTS TO DELIVER BLOWS AT THE REVOLUTION." 
- 
¶8.  ARDABILI'S SERMON IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY FOR ITS 
COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MENTION OF RAFSANJANI AND KHAMENEI 
ON AN OCCASION WHEN PRAISE OF THE RULERS IS TRADITIONAL. 
ARDABILI DOES FIND ANOTHER WAY OF INDIRECTLY ATTACKING 
RAFSANJANI IN DISCUSSING THE THREAT TO IRAN IMPLICIT 
IN THE BREAKUP OF THE COMMUNIST EMPIRE.  HE STATES THAT 
THE WEST IS HOPEFUL OF DEPOLARIZING THE WORLD, "THE 
WOLVES HAVE SHARPENED THEIR CLAWS, GLOBAL ECONOMIC CENTERS 
HAVE DRAWN UP CERTAIN PLANS."  THIS CONTRASTS WITH 
RSFSANJANI'S FEBRUARY 20 PRESENTATION OF THE BUDGET BILL 
(REF C), IN WHICH HE SAW DANGERS IN THE CHANGES IN EUROPE 
BUT ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF POSITIVE RESULTS FOR NATIONS 
"LIKE US WHO WISH TO BE INDEPENDENT."  ARDABILI IS UNMOVED 
BY RAFSANJANI'S CAUTION AGAINST "ONE-SIDED JUDGMENT." 
- 
¶9.  THESE PUBLIC DECLARATIONS BY SUPPORTERS OF THE MOST 
EXTREME POSITIONS OF THE LATE AYATOLLAH LAY DOWN AN 
EXTENSIVE CHALLENGE TO RAFSANJANI.  THEY SUGGEST THAT 
PASSAGE BY THE MAJLIS OF THE ECONOMIC PLAN WILL NOT GIVE 
HIM AN EASIER ROAD THAN HE HAS HAD.  THE BUREAUCRATIC 
DISORGANIZATION OF IRAN IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE AMPLE 
FAILURES IN THE PLAN'S AMBITIOUS GOALS.  RAFSANJANI 
MUST EXPECT THAT EVERY SETBACK WILL BE UTILIZED BY 
HIS OPPOSITION TO PROCLAIM THAT THE "MASSES" ARE NOT 
BEING AIDED AND THAT IRAN IS SINKING DEEPER INTO FOREIGN 
DEPENDENCE.  WITH SUCH A BATTLE ON HIS HANDS, IT IS MOST 
UNLIKELY THAT RAFSANJANI WILL SEE THIS AS A SENSIBLE TIME 
TO UNDERTAKE ANY WARMING TO THE UNITED STATES -- A 
SECOND, AND RELATED, AREA ON WHICH THE HARDLINERS HAVE 
STAKED OUT THEIR OPPOSITION AND WRAPPED THEMSELVES IN 
THE BANNER OF THE DEPARTED IMAM. 
- 
¶10.  THE ENGLISH-LANGUAGE TEHRAN TIMES EDITORIAL OF 
FEBRUARY 22 (REF D) CALLING FOR THE RELEASE OF THE 
HOSTAGES IN LEBANON DOES NOT STRIKE US AS A SIGNIFICANT 
BASIS FOR ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS.  THE PAPER IS PRIMARILY 
A VEHICLE FOR SPEAKING TO THE WEST, NOT TO THE FORCES 
THAT MAKE POLICY IN IRAN.  THE EDITORIAL, AS FAR AS WE 
ARE AWARE, HAS NEITHER BEEN PICKED UP BY THE PERSIAN 
PRESS NOR DISCUSSED IN PUBLIC STATEMENTS.  RAFSANJANI'S 
COMMENTS ON THE FOREIGN SITUATION BEFORE THE MAJLIS 
(REF C) LIKEWISE MAKE NO MENTION OF THE HOSTAGES.  WHAT 
HE DOES DO IS TO REJECT EXPLICITLY COMPROMISE WITH THE 
WEST, ALTHOUGH HE NOTES THAT IRAN COULD IMPROVE ITS 
ECONOMIC CONDITION IF "WE WERE PREPARED TO COMPROMISE 
WITH THE ARROGANT POWERS OF THE WORLD." 
- 
¶11.  IRANIANS ARE ADEPT AT GOING IN ONE DIRECTION WHILE 
KEEPING OTHERS OFF BALANCE BY THROWING OFF TANTALIZING 
HINTS OF DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES IN FORA WHICH HOLD NO 
ACCOUNTABILITY FOR IRANIAN POLICY MAKERS.  WE BELIEVE 
THE TEHRAN TIMES EDITORIAL IS ANOTHER SUCH RED HERRING. 
THE PUBLIC CHALLENGES OF MOHTASHEMI AND ARDABILI 
REPRESENT THE REALITY WITH WHICH RAFSANJANI WILL HAVE 
TO COPE FOR SOME TIME TO COME. 
 
WALKER