R 031507Z SEP 85
FM AMCONSUL ALEXANDRIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5491
INFO AMEMBASSY CAIRO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ALEXANDRIA 00817 
 
PLEASE PASS USAID 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PGOV PINR EG
SUBJECT:  ALEXANDRIA:  A "DEEPLY DIVIDED" CITY 
 
REFS:  (A)  ALEXANDRIA 435 
-      (B)  ALEXANDRIA 535 
-      (C)  ALEXANDRIA 771 
 
¶1.  (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.) 
 
¶2.  SUMMARY. THE JULY 2 PRESENTATION, TO THE PEOPLES 
ASSEMBLY, OF THE PARLIAMENTARY INVESTIGATIVE REPORT 
ON ALEXANDRIA GOVERNOR FAWZI MA'AZ'S CONDUCT OF OFFICE 
DID NOT STOP THE DEBATE.  INDEED, NEW CHARGES AND 
COUNTER-CHARGES HAVE EMERGED DURING THE SUMMER 
WHICH INDICATE THAT THIS ISSUE IS FAR FROM DEAD. 
IN RESPONSE TO HIS TROUBLES, THE GOVERNOR HAD 
REMOVED TWO OF ALEXANDRIA'S TOP POLITICAL OFFICIALS, 
LEAVING THE CITY WITH AN EMBATTLED GOVERNOR AND TWO 
NEWCOMERS TO COPE WITH ALEXANDRIA'S MOUNTING PROBLEMS. 
HE HAS ALSO SUED WAFD PARTY AND NEWSPAPER LEADERSHIP 
FOR LIBEL.  WHILE THERE AREN'T TOO MANY HEROES IN THIS 
STORY, THE EMERGING POLITICAL ROLE OF MINISTER OF 
AGRICULTURE, YOUSSEF WALLY, IS WORTH NOTING.  END 
SUMMARY. 
- 
- 
¶3.  POLITICS, THIS SUMMER, IN THE VERY POLITICAL 
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA, HAVE REVOLVED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY 
AROUND THE PROBLEMS OF   GOVERNOR FAWZI MA'AZ 
(REFS A AND B).  WHILE THE GOE APPARENTLY ELECTED 
TO CUBBY-HOLE THE REPORT PRODUCED BY THE PARLIAMENTARY 
INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE (REF A), THIS WAS NOT ACHIEVED 
WITHOUT A SOMEWHAT TUMULTUOUS LAST DAY OF PARLIAMENT-- 
AND AT LEAST SOME DAMAGE, WE HEAR, TO THE REPUTATION 
OF PEOPLES ASSEMBLY SPEAKER, RIFAAT AL MAHGOUB. 
ALTHOUGH NO PUBLISHED ACCOUNT TELLS US WHAT HAPPENED 
TO THE REPORT (SOME BELIEVE IT WAS REFERRED TO THE 
MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT; OTHERS THINK THE REPORT, 
AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS, WENT TO THE 
SOCIALIST PROSECUTOR), THE GOVERNMENT IS PERCEIVED 
AS HAVING TAKEN NO ACTION IN THE MA'AZ CASE, AND 
ATTACKS IN THE WEEKLY "WAFD" HAVE CONTINUED UNABATED. 
THE GOVERNOR HAS ENMESHED HIMSELF FURTHER BY GIVING 
INTERVIEWS WHICH, FAR FROM EXONERATING HIM, HAVE NOT 
ONLY KEPT THE DEBATE ALIVE, BUT PROVIDED NEW 
AMMUNITION FOR CHARGES AND COUNTER-CHARGES. 
 
-- NEAR THE END OF THE SUMMER, AND BECAUSE OF PERCEIVED 
WRONG ACTIONS ON THE PART OF THE GOVERNMENT, THE 
SEWAGE DEBATE HAS RESURFACED, BOTH IN ALEXANDRIA AND 
IN THE COLUMNS OF ALL NATIONAL DAILIES.  THIS PROUD 
CITY IS NOT ONLY BEING HELD UP TO NATIONAL RIDICULE, 
BUT THE APPARENT DRIFT AND INDECISIVENESS--ON BOTH THE 
MA'AZ CASE AND THE SEWAGE OUTFALL QUESTION--HAVE LEFT 
BOTH OBSERVERS AND PARTICIPANTS WITH THE IMPRESSION 
OF "A WEAK GOVERNMENT"--IN THE WORDS OF ONE OF MA'AZ'S 
FELLOW GOVERNORS. 
 
¶4.  THE LAST DAY OF PARLIAMENT:  BY ALL ACCOUNT, THE 
LAST DAY OF THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY, JULY 2, WAS A LIVELY 
OR "MELODRAMATIC" (IN THE WORDS OF "AL SHAAB" JULY 9) 
OCCASION.  THE 41-PAGE REPORT ON GOVERNOR MA'AZ 
WAS DISTRIBUTED TO MEMBERS ONLY THAT MORNING.  TWO 
NDP AND TWO WAFD MEMBERS WERE ALLOWED BRIEFLY TO DISCUSS 
THE SANITIZED (ACCORDING TO THE "WAFD," JULY 18) REPORT. 
THE LAST SESSION OF PARLIAMENT, HEAVILY MANAGED 
BY SPEAKER RIFAAT AL MAGHOUB, LASTED ONLY TWO HOURS 
AND 20 MINUTES AND SAW THE PASSAGE OF 6 NEW LAWS 
AND THE APPROVAL OF 14 REPORTS.  THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL 
ITEM WAS NOT EVEN ON THE AGENDA:  AT THE REQUEST GOVERNOR 
MA'AZ, THE NDP MOVED TO LIFT THE PARLIAMENTARY 
IMMUNITY OF "WAFD" EDITOR, AND PA MEMBER FOR PORT SAID, 
MOUSTAPHA SHERDY.  IN ALEXANDRIA, WE UNDERSTAND 
THAT GOVERNOR MA'AZ HOSTED AN INFORMAL RECEPTION 
IN HIS OFFICE THAT DAY TO CELEBRATE THE EVENTS 
THAT HAD TAKEN PLACE IN CAIRO.  COMMENT:  ANOTHER 
LOCAL ECHO OF CAIRO'S DRAMATIC EVENTS WAS THAT 
MA'AZ SENT HIS SECRETARY TO THE CONSULATE GENERAL 
THAT DAY TO PROCURE A VISA FOR HIS SON:  "HE PROBABLY 
IS ASKING FOR THIS NOW, BECAUSE HE WON'T BE AROUND 
MUCH LONGER," COMMENTED HIS SECRETARY.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶5.  LIFTING SHERDY'S PARLIAMENTARY IMMUNITY:  BY 
MOST ACCOUNTS, INCLUDING NDP, THE SUCCESSFUL ACTION 
TO LIFT SHERDY'S IMMUNITY (PROPOSED BY MA'AZ DEFENDER 
FAROUK  GARANA, SEE PARA 7), WAS EXTRA-PARLIAMENTARY. 
IT PROVOKED A WAFD BOYCOTT OF PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S 
TRADITIONAL TEA ON THE LAST DAY OF PARLIAMENT, A 
ONE DAY RESIGNATION FROM THE WAFD LEADERSHIP BY 
FOUAD SERAG EL DIN, AND A FIRESTORM IN NATIONAL 
PRESS, MOST NOTABLY IN THE "WAFD," WHICH INTER ALIA, 
CHALLENGED THE GOE TO SHOW ON TELEVISION THE 
COMPLETE FOOTAGE OF THE LAST DAY OF THE PEOPLES 
ASSEMBLY (A CHALLENGE NOT YET TAKEN UP).  AN 
UNREPENTANT SHERDY HELD FORTH IN A PAGE ONE EDITORIAL 
IN THE JULY 11 EDITION OF THE "WAFD," DECRYING 
MAGHOUB'S  MANAGEMENT OF THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY AND 
ATTACKING THE SPEAKER IN STRONG LANGUAGE:  "THE DOG 
AT THE CENTER OF POWER... KNOWS HE IS NOTHING BUT 
A MERE CORPSE SITTING IN THE (SPEAKER'S) CHAIR... WHOSE 
PEN DISCHARGES NOTHING BUT PUS.  I WOULD LIKE TO TELL 
HIM THAT MY FEELING TOWARDS HIM NOW IS THE FEELING OF 
PITY."  THE SAME EDITORIAL ALSO (AND FINALLY) GOT TO 
THE HEART OF WAFD CHARGES AGAINST MA'AZ:  "MA'AZ SHOULD 
NOT SLIP AWAY FROM PUNISHMENT (BUT) MA'AZ IS NOT 
THE ONLY PROBLEM.  THE BIG PROBLEM IS THE PROBLEM OF 
CORRUPTION IN EGYPT.  THE 'WAFD' BELIEVES DEEPLY 
THAT THE CAMPAIGN WE ARE STARTING IN ALEXANDRIA 
SHOULD TEACH THE REST (OF THE COUNTRY) A GOOD LESSON." 
COUNTER-ATTACKING FOR THE GOVERNMENT, MOUSSA SABRY 
(AL AKHBAR, JULY 14)WROTE A PAEAN OF PRAISE FOR 
MA'AZ, REMINDED HIS READERS THAT SHERDY LIVED 
"IN THE GULF COUNTRIES FOR 12 YEARS," AND ACCUSED 
SHERDY OF THINKING THAT "THE PEN IS A CLEAVER IN THE 
HAND OF A BUTCHER."  SABRY'S EDITORIAL WAS ENTITLED 
"CHAOS."  MA'AZ AND ALEXANDRIA'S LOCAL POPULAR 
COUNCIL PRESIDENT, EZZAT KADDOUS (REF A) SUBSEQUENTLY 
BROUGHT LIBEL SUITS AGAINST WAFD PARTY LEADER 
FOUAD SERAG EL DIN, AND THREE "WAFD" NEWSPAPER 
STAFFERS, SHERDY, BADAWI AND THE NEWSPAPER'S 
CARTOONIST.  WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE.FIRST SITTING 
OF THE TRIAL WILL BE IN THE GIZA DISTRICT COURT 
OCTOBER 8.  BECAUSE SOME HARSH FEELINGS, REGARDING 
THE JULY 2 SESSION OF THE PA, REMAIN, MOST 
OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT THE GOE WILL WANT TO COMPLETE 
(OR OTHERWISE GET PAST) THIS LIBEL CASE BEFORE 
PARLIAMENT RECONVENES IN NOVEMBER. 
 
¶6.  MA'AZ, "ATTEMPTING TO SAVE HIMSELF":  MA'AZ 
SPENT THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH OF JULY GIVING 
INTERVIEWS IN GOE-SPONSORED DAILIES AND MASS- 
CIRCULATION MAGAZINES ATTEMPTING TO EXCULPATE 
HIMSELF FROM THE CORRUPTION CHARGES:  THE THRUST 
OF THE ATTACKS AGAINST HIM HAD MOVED FROM POOR 
MANAGEMENT CHOICES REGARDING DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS 
(REF A) TO PROFITEERING ON LAND DEALS.  AFTER 
THREE TIMES, IN THE COURSE OF THESE INTERVIEWS, 
ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT BLAME TO A FORMER GOVERNOR 
FOR PROFITEERING ON BEDOUIN LAND IN THE BEACH 
RESORT AREA OF AGAMI, THE SON OF KAMAL EL DIB 
(GOVERNOR OF ALEXANDRIA UNDER NASSER AND SADAT) 
STRUCK BACK.  THE GOE-SPONSORED PRESS DECLINED 
TO PUBLISH HIS STATEMENT, BUT ON AUGUST 28, THE 
"WAFD" CARRIED A BANNER HEADLINE STORY, WHICH 
INCLUDED A PHOTOCOPY OF A DEED SIGNED BY MA'AZ. 
COMMENT:  MOUFID EL DIB, THE SON OF THE FORMER 
GOVERNOR, TOLD US THAT HE IGNORED THE FIRST MA'AZ 
CHARGE, BUT AS THE GOVERNOR EMBELLISHED THE STORY 
THROUGHOUT THE S, HE FELT THAT HIS DECEASED 
FATHER'S HONOR, INDEED THAT OF THE WHOLE FAMILY, 
WAS AT STAKE.  HE ALSO TOLD US THAT THE GOE OFFICIAL 
IN CHARGE OF "STATE" (BEDOUIN) LAND IN AGAMI 
(THROUGH WHO MA'AZ CONDUCTED HIS LAND DEALS) WAS 
RECENTLY REMOVED FROM HIS POST.  TO GIVE AN IDEA 
OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PROFITEERING, EL DIB 
REPORTED THAT MA'AZ (WHILE STILL A POLICE OFFICER) 
HAD PAID THE STATE 173 PIASTERS PER SQUARE METER 
FOR THE LAND, BUT THAT EL DIB--NOT HIS FATHER-- 
HAD BOUGHT IT FROM MA'AZ AT LE 200 PER SQUARE 
METER.  END COMMENT.  WHILE SPEAKING PUBLICLY 
ABOUT THE CHARGES AGAINST HIM, MA'AZ MOVED QUIETLY 
BEHIND THE SCENES TO RID HIMSELF OF TWO OF 
ALEXANDRIA'S POLITICAL BARONS--MEN WHOM HE 
BELIEVED, ACCORDING TO OUR CONTACTS, HAD NOT 
SUPPORTED HIM SUFFICIENTLY IN HIS TIME OF NEED. 
IN SO DOING, HE HAS REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL SCENE 
TWO OF THE MOST DYNAMIC, WELL-KNOWN NATIONALLY, 
AND (BY MOST ACCOUNTS) EFFECTIVE, POLITICAL 
LEADERS IN ALEXANDRIA:  ALEXANDRIA$S SECRETARY 
GENERAL (NUMBER TWO PERSON IN THE GOVERNORATE 
AFTER MA'AZ HIMSELF), SHAKER ABDEL SALAAM, AND 
LOCAL NDP PARTY HEAD, MOHAMED ABDELLAH. 
 
¶7.  NDP PARTY LEADERSHIP:  A SMALL PAGE ONE 
ANNOUNCEMENT, IN "AL AHRAM" AUGUST 12, INFORMED 
READERS THAT MAHMOUD DAOUD, HEAD OF EGYPT'S 
COTTON BOARD AND MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE UNDER 
SADAT, HAD REPLACED MOHAMED ABDELLAH AS NDP 
PARTY CHIEF IN ALEXANDRIA.  WHILE THE BUSY ABDELLAH, 
CHAIRMAN OF THE PA FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE, 
AND PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATION LEADER FOR ALEXANDRIA, 
HAD FOUR TIMES ATTEMPTED TO SUBMIT HIS RESIGNATION 
FROM THE ALEX PARTY POST, HE WAS ACTUALLY FIRED 
BY SOBHI ABDEL HAKIM, SHURA COUNCIL SPEAKER AND 
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE NDP.  AT (WE ARE TOLD) 
MA'AZ'S INSTIGATION, A TEN-PERSON DELEGATION 
COMPRISED OF PA AND SHURA COUNCIL MEMBERS FROM 
ALEXANDRIA, AND LED BY PA MEMBER (AND MA'AZ ALLY) 
FAROUK GARANA, SOUGHT A MEETING WITH SOBHI TO 
COMPLAIN ABOUT ABDELLAH'S NUMEROUS ABSENCES FROM 
ALEXANDRIA, AND PARTY DRIFT HERE.  MUCH OF THE 
SESSION HARKED BACK TO THE TUMULTUOUS MEETING AT 
NDP ALEX HEADQUARTERS IN APRIL (REF A).  ABDELLAH, 
IN TRUE ALEXANDRIAN FAS MANAGED TO HAVE 
SEVERAL SUPPORTERS INCLUDED IN THE DELEGATION--WHO 
SOUGHT TO EXPLAIN THE STEPS ABDELLAH HAD TAKEN SINCE 
THAT TIME TO HEAL PARTY WOUNDS, AND MA'AZ'S 
REFUSAL TO COOPERATE WITH ABDELLAH.  THE FACT OF 
ABDELLAH'S FREQUENT ABSENCES FROM ALEXANDRIA, 
HOWEVER, COULD NOT BE DISPUTED, AS HE HAD JUST 
RETURNED FROM PA TRIPS TO BOTH THE PRC AND THE 
USSR (REF C).  ABDELLAH MAINTAINS HE WAS CONSULTED 
ON HIS OWN OUSTER AND WAS GIVEN THE COURTESY OF 
A PRIORI VETOES ON THREE POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS 
(NOTABLY, GARANA).  MOST ACCOUNTS HOLD THAT IT 
WAS ACTUALLY YOUSSEF WALLY, GOE MINISTER OF 
AGRICULTURE AND ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL OF 
THE NDP, WHO SUGGESTED DAOUD AS THE NEW PARTY 
LEADER FOR ALEXANDRIA--NOT ABDELLAH, AS ABDELLAH 
NOW TRIES TO CLAIM.  ACCORDING TO DAOUD, HIS 
COURTESY CALL ON NDP CHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT MUBARAK, 
REVOLVED LESS AROUND ALEXANDRIA'S MOUNTING PROBLEMS, 
THAN AROUND MUBARAK'S HORTATORY (AND SOMEWHAT 
MISPLACED, GIVEN THE MOODS IN ALEXANDRIA) COMMENTS 
TO DAOUD TO BREATHE LIFE BACK INTO THE PRIVATE 
SECTOR IN ALEXANDRIA.  AT DINNER THE WEEK OF 
HIS SELECTION, THE SOMEWHAT ELDERLY DAOUD 
ACKNOWLEDGED THE POLITICAL PROBLEMS HE FACES 
HERE, AND SAID HIS FIRST PRIORITY MUST BE TO HEAL 
THE WOUNDS IN THIS "DEEPLY DIVIDED CITY." 
 
¶8.  THE SECRETARY GENERALSHIP:  THE FORMER 
CLOSENESS OF FAWZI MA'AZ AND SHAKER ABDEL SALAAM 
(BOTH POLICE GENERALS) CANNOT BE EXAGGERATED. 
THEY APPEARED EVERYWHERE TOGETHER AND ALL THE 
CITY'S PROBLEMS WERE ADDRESSED, IN A FASHION, BY 
MA'AZ NAMING SHAKER TO HEAD A"STUDY COMMITTEE." 
SHAKER EVEN GAINED NATIONAL PROMINENCE AS HEAD 
OF THE COORDINATING COMMITTEE FOR USAID'S SUCCESSFUL 
NEIGHBORHOOD URBAN SERVICES (NUS) PROJECT IN THE 
THREE URBAN GOVERNORATES OF CAIRO, GIZA AND 
ALEXANDRIA.  SHAKER'S DOOR AT THE GOVERNORATE 
WAS ALWAYS OPEN TO CALLERS, WHEREAS THE ALOOF 
MA'AZ HOLDS ONLY TST PERFUNCTORY (AND 
GENERALLY NON-SUBSTANTIVE) COURTESY SESSIONS 
WITH VISITORS.  WE HAD EARLIER SPECULATED ON (WHAT 
WAS VIEWED LOCALLY AS) THE NEAR MIRACLE THAT 
SHAKER'S NAME WAS NEVER ASSOCIATED WITH THAT OF 
MA'AZ IN THE NUMEROUS "WAFD" ARTICLES, ALTHOUGH 
SHAKER WAS PERCEIVED LOCALLY AS HEAVILY INVOLVED 
IN PRIVATE BUSINESS DEALS, WHEREAS MA'AZ (UNTIL 
RECENTLY) WAS NOT.  WE ALSO RECEIVED INFORMATION 
FROM VARIOUS ALEXANDRIANS THAT SHAKER WAS QUIETLY 
BETRAYING THE GOVERNOR, IN AN ATTEMPT TO SAVE 
HIMSELF; THESE SAME SOURCES REPORTED THAT THEY 
HAD TOLD THE GOVERNOR THE SAME THING.  ALTHOUGH 
THE ACTUAL CAUSE FOR SHAKER'S SUDDEN TRANSFER TO 
THE MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN CAIRO REMAINS 
UNKNOWN, IT IS CLEAR THAT HE WAS PUT OUT TO 
PASTURE BY MINISTER OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT (AND 
ANOTHER FORMER POLICE GENERAL) ABU BASHA--AT THE 
REQUEST OF MA'AZ.  ALLEGEDLY FURIOUS AT HIS 
TRANSFER TO THE NON-POSITION OF "SPECIAL ASSISTANT 
TO THE MINISTER," SHAKER REPORTEDLY HAS RESIGNED 
FROM THE GOVERNMENT.  COMMENT:  MA'AZ APPEARS DETERMINED 
TO KEEP UP APPEARANCES IN THE MIDST OF THIS 
TURMOIL:  IN A MEETING WITH VISITING USG 
OFFICIALS AUGUST 21, MA'AZ POINTEDLY TOLD US 
THAT SHAKER HAD RECEIVED A "BIG PROMOTION." 
THE SAME DAY, THE GOVERNOR LED THE DELEGATION 
TO THE FUNERAL IN ALEXANDRIA OF SHAKER'S MOTHER. 
END COMMENT.  ACCORDING TO ABDELLAH, A DISHEARTENED, 
AND INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, MA'AZ TOLD THE MINISTER 
TO "NAME ANYONE" TO REPLACE SHAKER--A HIGHLY 
UNUSUAL POSITION FOR ANY SENIOR MANAGER REGARDING 
THE SELECTION OF HIS DEPUTY.  BUT, THAT IS WHAT 
THE MINISTER DID:  FAYEZ OSMAN, FORMER HEAD OF THE 
EASTERN ALEXANDRIA DISTRICT, IS ALEXANDRIA'S 
NEW SECRETARY GENERAL.  A FORMER ARMY OFFICER 
WHO LOST HIS RIGHT HAND IN THE 1956 WAR, THE 
CONGENIAL AND LOW-KEY OSMAN IS DUE FOR RETIREMENT 
IN A YEAR OR SO.  THIS LEAVES THIS TROUBLED CITY 
WITH AN EMBATTLED AND ISOLATED GOVERNOR, A 
CARETAKER SECRETARY-GENERAL--AND A POLITICALLY 
AWARE LOCAL POPULATION DRAWING UNFORTUNATE CONCLUSIONS 
ABOUT ITS CENTRAL NMENT. 
 
¶9.  "MASSIVE" POLICE TRANSFERS:  WHILE EVERYONE 
LOCALLY ASSOCIATES THE EARLY AUGUST TRANSFER OUT 
OF ALEXANDRIA OF 132  POLICE OFFICERS ("THE 
LARGEST SHAKEUP IN POLICE ANNALS" ACCORDING TO 
THE "WAFD," AUGUST 22, AND CONFIRMED BY LOCAL 
SOURCES) WITH THE GOVERNOR'S PROBLEMS, WE HAVE 
BEEN UNABLE TO ESTABLISH ANY DIRECT LINK--OTHER 
THAN THE OBVIOUS ONE THAT, AS A RESPECTED FORMER 
POLICE GENERAL, MA'AZ MUST HAVE BEEN CONSULTED. 
HOWEVER, RUMORS ALSO ABOUND THAT HIS CLOSEST 
ALLIES IN THE POLICE FORCE WERE AMONG THOSE 
TRANSFERRED.  A GOVERNOR OF ANOTHER DELTA 
GOVERNORATE HAS EVEN MADE THE PRIVATE SUGGESTION 
THAT THE ACTIVIST MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR, AHMED 
ROUCHDY, WAS PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION ON "THE 
MESS IN ALEXANDRIA," EVEN IF THE MINISTER OF LOCAL 
GOVERNMENT, ABU BASHA, WAS (OR COULD) NOT.  A 
FINAL TWIST TO THE SPECULATION IS THAT THE MOI 
WAS UNHAPPY WITH HOW THE SECURITY FORCES IN 
ALEXANDRIA WERE COPING WITH THE FUNDAMENTALISTS' 
CHALLENGE HERE (SEE ALEX 546 AND 587).  COMMENT: 
WE EARLIER REPORTED ON THE REMARKABLE DIFFERENCE IN 
BEHAVIOR OF BOTH THE FUNDAMENTALISTS AND THE 
SECURITY FORCES AT THE RECENT KURBAN BAIRAM, AS 
COMPARED TO THE RAMADAN BAIRAM (ALEX  799). 
END COMMENT. 
 
¶10.  HOW MUCH LONGER WILL MA'AZ REMAIN?  WHILE 
THERE ARE SOME LOCAL NOTABLES WHO CONTINUE TO 
DEFEND MA'AZ (USUALLY HARKING BACK TO HIS 
ACKNOWLEDGED EXCELLENCE AS A POLICE GENERAL), 
THERE IS A GENERALIZED LOCAL SENTIMENT THAT HE 
MUST GO:  HE HAS BEEN TOO DEBASED BY THE MONTHS- 
LONG CAMPAIGN IN THE "WAFD" (ON WHICH THE GOE 
HAS BEEN PUBLICLY SILENT) AND PERCEIVED INACTION 
ON THE CITY'S MOUNTING PROBLEMS (LED BY GARBAGE 
AND SEWAGE QUESTIONS), TO BE ABLE TO LEAD THIS 
RATHER RAMBUNCTIOUS CITY.  PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S 
POSITION ON THE MA'AZ TROUBLES REMAINS SOMEWHAT 
OPAQUE:  WHILE WE HAVE HAD REPORTS (REF B) THAT 
HE INTENDS TO LET THE GO TO TRIAL, HIS 
REMARKS EARLIER THIS SUMMER TO THE AMBASSADOR 
TENDED TO INDICATE THAT HE CONTINUES TO HAVE 
CONFIDENCE IN MA'AZ.  SINCE THAT TIME, HOWEVER, 
NEW CHARGES HAVE EMERGED (SUCH AS IN PARA 6), PLUS-- 
AND IMPORTANTLY-- THE PRESIDENT HAS SPENT THE 
SUMMER IN ALEXANDRIA.  WHILE HE HAS NOT BEEN 
SEEN SOCIALLY, MRS. MUBARAK HAS BEEN VISIBLE AT 
(AND KNOWN TO HAVE COMPLAINED ABOUT) THE CITY'S 
BEACHES, AND IN AGAMI.  AT THIS POINT, DECENCY 
WOULD SEEM TO REQUIRE THAT MA'AZ BE PERMITTED HIS 
DAY IN COURT (PARA 4), BUT WE SUSPECT THAT HE WILL 
BE REMOVED BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR, PROBABLY 
IN A CAMOUFLAGED TRANSFER OF SEVERAL GOVERNORS. 
IF HE IS NOT, THE GOE, AND SPECIFICALLY PRESIDENT 
MUBARAK, WILL FACE INCREASING CHARGES OF NEGLIGENCE 
OF EGYPT'S SECOND CITY, AND LOUDER COMPLAINTS THAN 
WHAT WE ARE ALREADY HEARING THAT MA'AZ IS BEING 
PROTECTED BECAUSE HE IS FROM MENOUFIA (REF A), 
AND HAS FAMILY TIES TO MUBARAK'S PRIVATE SECRETARY, 
ZAKI. 
 
¶11.  A FEW (INTERIM) CONCLUSIONS: 
 
-- WHILE TEMPERS ARE RISING HERE, PARTICULARLY IN 
REGARD TO THE SEWAGE ISSUE, THE GOE HAS PROBABLY 
DISCOUNTED SOME OF THE GRIPES AS THEY COME FROM 
A CITY WHICH TRADITIONALLY IS ON DIFFICULT TERMS 
WITH THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT.  NEVERTHELESS, THE 
IMPRESSION OF WEAKNESS, OR NEGLIGENCE, OF THE 
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REMAINS.  AND, ALEXANDRIA'S 
PROBLEMS--FOLLOWING THE ANNUAL SUMMER SOJOURN 
HERE OF THE POLITICAL AND JOURNALISTIC LEADERSHIP 
OF CAIRO--CAN NO LONGER BE CALLED "LOCAL." 
INDEED, ALEXANDRIA AND ITS PROBLEMS, HAVE BEEN 
REPEATEDLY FEATURED IN THE COLUMNS THIS SUMMER 
OF ALL THE NATIONAL DAILIES AND HAVE APPEARED, AS 
WELL WE UNDERSTAND, IN THE INTERNATIONAL 
ARABIC LANGUAGE MEDIA. 
 
-- THE POLITICAL CHANGES WHICH HAVE OCCURRED 
HERE (PARAS 7-8), PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF THE 
GOVERNOR'S PROBLEMS, HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE: 
APPARENT WEAK MEN HAVE REPLACED STRONG, NATIONAL 
FIGURES.  WHILE DAOUD HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE 
LEADER OF THE COTTON INDUSTRY, HE HAD A MIXED 
REPUTATION AS MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE.  LOCALLY, 
HE IS KNS INTELLIGENT, BUT A HEAVY DRINKER, 
AND SOMEONE POOR ENOUGH (UNLIKE ABDELLAH) TO BE 
TEMPTED BY PATRONAGE HE WILL NOW CONTROL. 
THE NEW SECRETARY GENERAL WILL LIKELY BE NON-CORRUPT, 
BUT NOT DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO DEAL WITH THE CITY'S 
MOUNTING PROBLEMS, WHILE MA'AZ CONCENTRATES ON 
HIS LEGAL DEFENSES. 
 
-- AS IS ITS WONT, THIS CITY HAS ALSO HAD AN 
IMPACT ON THE REPUTATION OF SEVERAL NATIONAL 
LEADERS.  DUE NOT ONLY TO HIS MANAGEMENT OF THE 
PEOPLES ASSEMBLY, BUT TO HIS PERSISTENT REPUTATION 
LOCALLY AS A NASSERIST, RIFAAT AL MAGHOUB IS 
VIEWED IN ALEXANDRIA AS ALMOST OUT OF THE RUNNING 
TO REPLACE KAMAL HASSAN ALI AS PRIME MINISTER. 
ON THE OTHER HAND, YOUSSEF WALLY, WHOSE ROLE 
IN KING-MAKING IS KNOWN (IN ADDITION TO SELECTING 
ABDELLAH'S REPLACEMENT, WALLY IS ALLEGED PERSONALLY 
TO HAVE PICKED THE NEW GOVERNOR OF DAMIETTA, AS 
WELL AS SEVERAL OF THE MINISTERS IN MUBARAK'S 
CURRENT CABINET) AND HE IS NOW VIEWED LOCALLY AS 
THE FRONT RUNNER AMONG THOSE LIKELY TO BECOME PM. 
ADDITIONALLY, WALLY IS GENUINELY POPULAR IN THE 
AGRICULTURAL DELTA.  FINALLY, AS HEAD OF GOVERNMENT, 
THE OTHERWISE POPULAR KAMAL HASSAN ALI, HAS NOT 
EARNED ANY KUDOS HERE THIS SUMMER--EITHER FOR HIS 
LACK OF ACTION ON THE MA'AZ CASE, OR FOR HIS MIS- 
HANDLING OF THE CITY'S SEWAGE PROBLEMS.  THAT TOPIC 
WILL BE THE SUBJECT OF A SEPTEL ABOUT THE TROUBLED 
SUMMER IN THIS CITY. 
 
 
COOK