VZCZCXRO4882
OO RUEHGH
DE RUEHUL #0149/01 0340741
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030741Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6911
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 9665
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0745
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7228
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 7294
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1736
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5580
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 4504
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 7712
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1973
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0058
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2346
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2963

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SEOUL 000149 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; FEBRUARY 3, 2010 
 
TOP HEADLINES 
------------- 
 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
¶N. Korea Dismisses the Workers' Party's Finance Director 
Pak Nam-gi for Botched Currency Reform 
 
JoongAng Ilbo, KBS, MBC 
U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review: "USFK to be Deployed Overseas in 
Three to Four Years" 
 
Dong-a Ilbo 
Candidate Registration Begins for June 2 Local Elections, 
Which May Serve as "Midterm Evaluation of 
Lee Myung-bak Administration" 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
Education Ministry's Involvement in Election of Superintendents of 
Education Creating Stir 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
ROKG Allegedly Downplayed Expected Flood Damage 
from Four Rivers Project 
 
Segye Ilbo 
Pentagon: "N. Korea to Mount Nuclear Warhead 
on ICBM within Decade" 
Seoul Shinmun 
Twitter Emerges as New Medium for Local Election Campaigns 
 
 
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 
--------------------- 
 
President Lee Myung-bak, during a Feb. 2 Cabinet meeting, stressed 
that the leaders of the  two Koreas should meet under a premise that 
there can be no reward for a summit. (All) 
 
Unification Minister Hyun In-taek, in a Feb. 2 meeting with the 
foreign press here, said that a desirable summit meeting between the 
two Koreas is one that contributes to resolving the nuclear issue 
and humanitarian problems, such as the issue of ROK prisoners of war 
and abductees held in North Korea. (All) 
 
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt 
Campbell arrived in Seoul yesterday to discuss pending bilateral 
issues, including the North's nuclear issue, with ROKG officials. He 
was quoted as telling reporters upon arrival: "It is still too early 
to be talking about (North Korea) sanctions relief, given that we 
have not had a resumption of (the Six-Party) Talks." (Hankook, 
Segye, Seoul, MBC, YTN) 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL NEWS 
-------------------- 
 
According to the "Ballistic Missile Defense Review" released on Feb. 
1 by the Pentagon, North Korea will achieve the necessary technology 
to mount a nuclear warhead onto an intercontinental ballistic 
missile within a decade. (All) 
 
The report also said that although the test launches of the North's 
Taepodong-2 missiles in 2006 and 2009 were deemed unsuccessful, it 
is assumed that sooner or later North Korea will have a successful 
test of its Taepodong-2. (All) 
 
The Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), on the other hand, 
made it clear that the so-called "strategic flexibility" for rapid 
deployment of USFK abroad to conflict regions will be strengthened 
after the introduction of three-year, family accompanied tours by 
USFK in the coming years. (All) 
 
 
SEOUL 00000149  002 OF 004 
 
 
According to "Good Friends," a North Korean human rights group in 
the ROK, North Korea appears to be suffering from severe economic 
conditions after its market mechanism was paralyzed in the wake of 
last November's sweeping currency reform; many North Koreans are 
dying of hunger. (Dong-a, Hankook) 
 
 
MEDIA ANALYSIS 
-------------- 
 
-N. Korea 
--------- 
Most ROK media covered Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian 
and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell's arrival in Seoul yesterday to 
discuss pending bilateral issues, including North Korea's nuclear 
issue, with ROKG officials. 
 
He was quoted as telling reporters upon arrival: "It is still too 
early to be talking about (North Korea) sanctions relief, given that 
we have not had a resumption of (the Six-Party) Talks." 
 
With regard to growing talks of a possible inter-Korean summit, 
sparked by President Lee Myung-bak's remark that he may meet with 
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il this year, all media gave attention 
to President Lee's remarks during a Feb. 2 Cabinet meeting, in which 
he said that the leaders of the two Koreas should meet under a 
premise that there can be no reward for a summit.  He was further 
quoted: "The summit between the two Koreas may only be pursued under 
firm principles.  It won't be realized unless these principles are 
satisfied." 
 
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo's sub-heading read: "Lee's Remarks are 
a Clear Message to N. Korea that He is Different from His 
Predecessors." 
 
The Pentagon's "Ballistic Missile Defense Review" report released on 
Feb. 1 received wide press attention.  According to media reports, 
the Ballistic Missile Defense Review said that North Korea will 
achieve the necessary technology to mount a nuclear warhead onto an 
intercontinental ballistic missile within a decade.  The report was 
also cited as saying: "Although the test launches of the North's 
Taepodong-2 missiles in 2006 and 2009 were deemed unsuccessful, it 
is assumed that sooner or later North Korea will have a successful 
test of its Taepodong-2." 
 
Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "The Pentagon made it clear 
that the planned transfer of wartime operational control to the ROK 
will be carried out in two years as scheduled.  This move is not 
appropriate for the ROK's security situation given the possibility 
that the North will possess an ICBM with a nuclear warhead.  If 
things go as planned, the threats from North Korea will increase and 
USFK's deterrence, on the contrary, will decline." 
 
Citing a diplomatic source in Beijing, conservative Chosun Ilbo 
front-paged a report saying that the North Korean regime apparently 
sacked the Workers' Party's Finance Director Pak Nam-gi, letting him 
take the fall for the failed currency reform late last year.  The 
report went on to quote some North Korea watchers in China as 
predicting that the North Korean regime may perform a U-turn back to 
timid market reforms, now that Pak, who led the crusade against 
capitalism, has been fired." 
 
 
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS 
------------------- 
 
U.S. MAY MOVE USFK TO OTHER LOCATIONS AFTER OPCON TRANSFER 
(Chosun Ilbo, February 3, Page 35) 
 
The U.S. Department of Defense unveiled its Quadrennial Defense 
Review (QDR) on Monday and in it revealed that, "The status of U.S. 
forces in Korea is changing from being forward-deployed to 
forward-stationed with family members," meaning USFK personnel will 
be required to stay longer when they are accompanied by their 
 
SEOUL 00000149  003 OF 004 
 
 
families.  "When fully implemented, this change will enable forces 
to deploy from the ROK, helping to expand the pool of available 
forces for global contingencies." 
 
At present, the U.S. government is in the process of changing the 
current one-year (family-unaccompanied) tours to three-year family 
accompanied tours for the 28,500 USFK troops, and says an entirely 
new method of deployment will be implemented over the next three to 
four years.  The report says this will enable the USFK to be 
re-deployed to other conflict areas in the world at any time. 
 
The QDR, issued every four years, serves as the guide for U.S. 
defense spending and troop deployment.  Since 2000, Washington has 
been seeking to free overseas troops from being tied to a particular 
geographic region through a cost-saving program dubbed "strategic 
flexibility."  Washington has assured Seoul that no special changes 
would happen to the USFK, but as the latest report says, the USFK 
will not only protect the ROK from a possible invasion by the North 
but also allow for deployment elsewhere, if USFK's status is changed 
from "forward-deployed" to "forward-stationed."  That could signify 
that the USFK could become less of a deterrent to North Korea. 
 
"We are in close cooperation with the (South) Korean government to 
implement the plans that have already been agreed upon," adding that 
the transfer of full operational control of Korean troops to Seoul 
will take place as scheduled on April 17, 2012.  It appears that the 
U.S. is determined to hand over the primary burden of defense to the 
ROK government. 
 
In its Ballistic Missile Defense Review, the U.S. Department of 
Defense on Tuesday acknowledged the progress North Korea has made in 
missile technology and predicted that the North will be able to 
mount a nuclear warhead onto a long-range missile within 10 years. 
Nonetheless, the U.S. intends to hand over wartime operational 
control of ROK troops to Seoul in 2012 and free American troops on 
the peninsula to serve in other areas one or two years later. 
 
The Defense Ministry responded the matter "needs to be discussed 
over the mid- to long term" and added that it would seek "remedial 
measures." But an issue as important as this cannot be resolved 
through patch-up solutions.  The U.S. and the ROK must approach the 
issue at the highest level of government and begin negotiations as 
soon as possible to look for alternative measures. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
U.S. BRACES FOR N. KOREA'S ICBM WITH A NUCLEAR WARHEAD, BUT WE... 
(Dong-a Ilbo, February 3, Page 35) 
 
The Ballistic Missile Defense Review released on February 1 by the 
U.S. Department of Defense said that North Korea will be able to 
achieve the necessary technology to mount a nuclear warhead onto a 
ballistic missile within a decade.  The Quadrennial Defense Review 
(QDR), another report issued by the Pentagon the same day stated 
that it is urgent (that we) counter threats from Weapons of Mass 
Destruction (WMD) and prevent nuclear proliferation.  This clearly 
shows that the USG's key strategy is to come up with measures 
against North Korean threats which are expected to escalate further. 
 
 
A change in the U.S.'s defense strategy is closely related to a 
change in international developments.  Many countries joined the 
Iraq war and Afghan war, which the U.S. started.  A change in the 
U.S.'s strategy for regional conflicts considerably affects the 
foreign policy of other countries.  This is why the ROK is watching 
with a keen interest any policy change in the U.S., which is its 
ally. 
 
What draws our special attention in the Pentagon's reports is North 
Korea's military build-up and a change in the U.S. Forces in Korea 
(USFK).  The U.S. assumed that sooner or later North Korea will have 
a successful test of its Taepodong-2.  This is a worst-case 
 
SEOUL 00000149  004 OF 004 
 
 
scenario, in which the North is capable of deploying nuclear 
weapons.  The Pentagon laid out specific measures to thwart WMD 
proliferation, including border control of related countries.  The 
U.S. reaffirmed its determination to curb nuclear weapons and WMD 
even by blocking North Korea. 
 
The Pentagon said that the so-called "strategic flexibility" for 
rapid deployment of USFK abroad to conflict regions will be 
strengthened after the introduction of three-year, family 
accompanied tours by the U.S. Forces in Korea in the coming years. 
The Pentagon made it clear that the planned transfer of wartime 
operational control to the ROK will be carried out in two years as 
scheduled.  This move is not appropriate for the ROK's security 
situation given the possibility that the North will possess an ICBM 
with a nuclear warhead.  If things go as planned, the threats from 
North Korea will increase and USFK's deterrence, on the contrary, 
will decline. 
 
We should not allow a security vacuum to occur due to a gap between 
the U.S.'s global strategy and the ROK's defense strategy.  The 
ROK-U.S. alliance is designed to prevent such a dangerous situation. 
 The U.S. prioritizes its global strategy even though it stresses 
cooperation with its allies including the ROK.  We need to devise 
measures in order to counter North Korean threats while engaging in 
discussions with the U.S.  The core of the ROK's foreign and 
security policy should be to remove "asymmetrical" threats including 
the North's nuclear weapons and missiles. 
 
 
FEATURES 
-------- 
 
ASSISTANT SECRETARY CAMPBELL: "IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE TALKING ABOUT 
SANCTIONS RELIEF" 
(Hankook Ilbo, February 3, 2010, Page 3) 
 
By Reporter Yoo In-ho 
 
Attention drawn to the coordination of stances on an inter-Korean 
summit 
 
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs 
Kurt Campbell visited the ROK on February 2. 
 
After arriving at Gimpo Airport in Seoul, Assistant Secretary 
Campbell told reporters, "It is still too early to be talking about 
(North Korea) sanctions relief, given that we have not had a 
resumption of (the Six-Party) Talks," adding, "In fact, in recent 
days we have seen provocative actions, with artillery firing and the 
like.  So, I think that is one of the things that we want to do 
while we are here in Seoul, is to communicate closely and coordinate 
with our partners here."  He also stated, "It is going to be very 
important for North Korea to come back to the Six Party Talks, to 
abide by its commitments made in 2005 and 2007, and that within that 
context, the United States is prepared to work with our partners in 
South Korea, China, Japan, (and others.)" 
 
Assistant Secretary Campbell plans to meet with the ROK's Deputy 
Foreign Minister Lee Yong-joon on February 3 to talk about pending 
issues related to the ROK-U.S. alliance, such as the transfer of 
wartime operational control and the relocation of U.S. bases, and 
the North Korean nuclear issue. 
 
Of particular note is that in a series of meetings with Senior 
Secretary to the President for Foreign Affairs and National Security 
Kim Sung-hwan, Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan and Unification 
Minister Hyun In-taek, Assistant Secretary Campbell is expected to 
coordinate stances with the ROK on an inter-Korean summit, which is 
being prepared behind the scenes. 
 
 
STEPHENS