INFO  LOG-00   AF-00    AGRE-00  A-00     CA-00    CIAE-00  INL-00   
      DODE-00  DS-00    EAP-00   EUR-00   UTED-00  VCI-00   H-00     
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   MOFM-00  MOF-00   CDC-00   
      VCIE-00  DCP-00   NSAE-00  OIC-00   NIMA-00  EPAU-00  PA-00    
      MCC-00   GIWI-00  P-00     SP-00    IRM-00   FMP-00   CBP-00   
      EPAE-00  SCRS-00  DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-00   NFAT-00  SAS-00   
      FA-00    SWCI-00  PESU-00  SANA-00    /001W
  
R 031414Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0654
INFO SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
CJTF HOA
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
USMISSION UN ROME

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000224 
 
AIDAC 
USAID/DCHA FOR SRIECHLE 
JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY 
KCHANNELL 
APIYAKA 
DCHA/FFP FOR BISHAM 
JDWORKEN 
SANTHONY 
CMUTAMBA 
PMOHAN 
DNELSON 
AFR/EA 
STATE FOR AF/E 
AF/F AND PRM 
USUN FOR DMERCADO 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
ROME FOR HSPANOS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA DEYR ASSESSMENT RESULTS INDICATE SUSTAINED 
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.    On January 29, the U.N. Food and Agriculture 
Organization (FAO) Food Security and Nutrition 
Analysis Unit (FSNAU) presented findings from the 2009/2010 
post-October to December short rains seasonal assessment. 
According to FSNAU, an estimated 3.2 million people will 
require humanitarian assistance in Somalia between January 
and June 2010, representing approximately 42 percent of the 
estimated total population and a nine percent decrease 
since July 2009.  While an above-normal harvest has 
improved food security in southern agricultural areas of 
Somalia, conflict and increased attacks targeting aid 
agencies have led to temporary suspensions in activities 
and diminishing access, hindering the delivery of 
humanitarian assistance to populations in need.  In 
addition, below-normal rainfall in northern regions has 
resulted in significant water and pasture shortages. 
Humanitarian partners also continue to report high levels 
of malnutrition, particularly in south Somalia. 
 
¶2.    The U.S. represents the single largest donor of 
humanitarian assistance to Somalia, providing more than USD 
153 million in Fiscal Year (FY) 2009 and to date in FY 
2010, including nearly USD 14.5 million from the USAID 
Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and 
nearly USD 139 million in USAID Office of Food for Peace 
(USAID/FFP) funding.  USAID/OFDA and USAID/FFP staff are 
closely monitoring humanitarian conditions in Somalia. End 
Summary. 
 
----------------- 
CURRENT SITUATION 
----------------- 
 
¶3.    On January 29, FSNAU presented findings from the 
2009/2010 post-deyr seasonal assessment conducted by FSNAU, 
the USAID-funded Famine and Early Warning Systems Network 
(FEWS NET), and 88 partners, including regional 
authorities, UN agencies, and local and international non- 
governmental organizations (NGOs).  According to the 
results, an estimated 3.2 million people will require 
humanitarian assistance in Somalia between January and June 
2010, representing between 32 and 42 percent of the total 
estimated population of between 7.5 and 9.8 million people 
and a nine percent decrease since July 2009.  The total 
includes 555,000 urban poor; 1.25 million rural, drought- 
affected individuals; and approximately 1.39 million 
internally displaced persons (IDPs). 
 
¶4.    Assessment findings indicate a 15 percent decline in 
the number of urban and rural individuals requiring 
assistance since July 2009.  The decline in rural 
populations requiring humanitarian assistance is associated 
with food security improvements in southern agricultural 
areas resulting from an above-normal deyr harvest and 
improved water and pasture availability.  However, FSNAU 
reported an increase in the number of rural individuals in 
northern Somalia requiring assistance, noting that drought 
conditions have left 290,000 pastoralists and agro- 
pastoralists in crisis.  Decreasing needs in urban areas, 
particularly in northern Somalia, reflect price and 
currency stabilization partially resulting from decreasing 
import commodity prices.  In central regions, FSNAU reports 
that 70 percent of the population requires humanitarian 
assistance due to ongoing drought conditions, as well as 
escalating conflict and resulting population displacements. 
 
¶5.    IDPs remain the largest single population group in 
crisis, representing 44 percent of the 3.2 million people 
in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia, with 
insecurity continuing to be the primary cause for 
displacement. FSNAU notes that the number of IDPs is likely 
to increase due to ongoing and escalated conflict.  On 
January 19, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for 
Refugees (UNHCR) revised downward the estimated number of 
IDPs in Somalia from 1.5 million individuals, to 
approximately 1.39 million individuals, including 275,000 
long-term IDPs.  The new IDP estimate reflects a downward 
revision of the number of IDPs residing in Afgoye corridor 
from 540,000 to 380,000 following a UNHCR-conducted 
verification exercise. 
 
----------------------------- 
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6.    Results from the deyr assessment indicate an above- 
normal harvest production in Somalia, contributing 46 
percent of the total annual crop production in Somalia. 
The October to December deyr harvest typically contributes 
30 to 35 percent of the total annual crop production. 
FSNAU estimates a total 2009/2010 deyr cereal production in 
south Somalia of 124,700 metric tons (MT), representing the 
largest deyr cereal production in south Somalia 
since 2001/2002.  This is a 246 percent increase from the 
2008 deyr cereal harvest in south Somalia and a 150 percent 
increase compared to the 2004-2008 average.  Including deyr 
and off-season production, FSNAU estimates a total seasonal 
cereal production in south Somalia of 126,400 MT, also 
representing a significant increase compared to 2008 annual 
cereal production levels in south Somalia and the 2004-2008 
average. 
 
¶7.    In northern and central pastoral areas, humanitarian 
agencies have expressed concern regarding deteriorating 
livestock conditions and milk production due to significant 
water and pasture shortages.  On December 17, FSNAU 
reported that food security in Hiran and Galgadud regions 
is likely to deteriorate due to below-normal rains and 
limited recovery from consecutive seasons of drought. 
 
¶8.    According to FSNAU, 2009 commercial cereal imports 
were above-normal, with nearly 700,000 MT imported during 
the year, representing a 190 percent increase compared 
to 2008 commercial cereal imports and 156 percent increase 
compared to the 2005-2007 average.  According to FSNAU, 
total annual crop production typically meets approximately 
40 percent of food needs in Somalia per year, while the 
imports meet the remaining 60 percent of the needs. 
 
-------------------- 
HEALTH AND NUTRITION 
-------------------- 
 
¶9.    Findings from 38 nutritional surveys, 27 urban site 
assessments, information from 100 health centers, and 
partner reports from selective feeding centers confirm 
critical nutrition conditions in Somalia, with some of the 
highest acute malnutrition rates in the world.  According 
to the results, one in six children in Somalia is acutely 
malnourished and one in 22 is severely malnourished, with a 
national median global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of 16 
percent and a severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rate of 4.2 
percent, a slight decrease compared to GAM and SAM rates of 
19 and 4.5 percent, respectively, reported by FSNAU in the 
post-April to June seasonal assessment results released in 
September 2009.  FSNAU noted that successful humanitarian 
interventions in areas designated as critical in the post- 
gu assessment have prevented a further decline in overall 
malnutrition rates, particularly in parts of central and 
northern Somalia. 
 
¶10.    In south and central Somalia, FSNAU reports that one 
in five children is acutely malnourished and one in 20 is 
severely malnourished, with GAM rates of 19 percent and SAM 
rates of 4.5 percent, significantly above the UN World 
Health Organization GAM and SAM emergency thresholds of 15 
percent and 2 percent, respectively. Countrywide, 
approximately 240,000 children under five years of age are 
acutely malnourished, of which 63,000 are severely 
malnourished and require immediate life-saving 
interventions. 
 
¶11.    FSNAU reported particular concern regarding nutrition 
conditions among IDP populations, as results indicate that 
one in four children is acutely malnourished.  FSNAU also 
reports elevated mortality rates among pastoral populations 
in Juba Region and central regions, as well as among IDP 
populations in the Afgoye corridor. (Note: Nutrition 
specific cable from USAID/OFDA forthcoming) 
 
-------------------------------------- 
INSECURITY AND POPULATION DISPLACEMENT 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶12.    On January 30, UNHCR estimated that insecurity, inter- 
clan fighting, and livelihood deterioration had displaced 
approximately 82,000 individuals within Somalia since 
January 1, with insecurity accounting for 98 percent of 
total displacement.  Of the total, internal displacement 
between January 1 and 22 includes approximately 18,000 
individuals displaced from and within Mogadishu, of which 
13,900 people fled the city and 4,400 others fled to safer 
areas within Mogadishu.    In total, UNHCR estimates that 1.4 
million IDPs reside in Somalia, including 1.11 million 
individuals displaced since increased fighting in February 
2007 and 275,000 long-term IDPs.  However, insecurity and 
fluid population movements, including secondary 
displacement and limited returns, continue to undermine 
efforts to accurately track IDP figures. 
 
¶13.    FSNAU reported that between July and December 2009, 
insecurity remained high throughout Mogadishu, Middle and 
Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiran, Galgadud, and Mudug regions.  In 
addition, security incidents have increasingly occurred in 
the northern Somalia.  Between January and June 2010, FSNAU 
reports that insecurity is likely to produce continued and 
renewed conflict; population displacement; destruction of 
property; an increased number of checkpoints; disruption of 
trade activities within Somalia; and closure of the Kenyan 
border.  FSNAU also noted the possibility of escalated 
insecurity in rural areas. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
USG Humanitarian Assistance in Somalia 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶14.    On December 3, the UN launched the 2010 Consolidated 
Appeals Process (CAP) for Somalia to help respond to the 
ongoing humanitarian crisis.  The appeal requests more than 
USD 689 million, representing an estimated 19 percent 
decrease from the revised requirements under the 2009 mid- 
year review (Note: During the mid-year review, the UN 
revised the original 2009 appeal requirement downwards from 
USD 919 million to USD 849 million).  UN staff reported 
that the decrease reflects reassessments of food aid 
requirements and improved coordination structures.  As of 
February 3, the UN reported that the 2010 CAP has received 
nearly USD 34 million. 
 
¶15.    To date in FY 2010, the USG has provided more than USD 
20 million in humanitarian assistance in Somalia, including 
nearly USD 5.5 million from USAID/OFDA to support 
agriculture and food security; water, sanitation, and 
hygiene; economic recovery and market systems; protection; 
and nutrition programs, as well as humanitarian 
coordination and information management and the provision 
of emergency relief supplies.  In FY 2009, USAID/OFDA 
provided more than USD 9 million in humanitarian assistance 
to Somalia. To date in FY 2010, USAID/FFP has provided more 
than 18,650 MT of P.L. 480 Title II emergency food 
assistance, valued at approximately USD 14.7 million.  In 
FY 2009, USAID/FFP provided an estimated 160,000 MT of P.L. 
480 Title II emergency food assistance, valued at more than 
USD 124 million, to the U.N. World Food Program for 
distribution to vulnerable populations in Somalia. 
 
 
RANNEBERGER