VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMD #0162/01 0391528
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081528Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1907

UNCLAS MADRID 000162 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
H PLEASE PASS TO CODEL CARDIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OREP PREL SP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CARDIN, FEBRUARY 15-17, SPAIN 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  Embassy Madrid welcomes the February 15-17 visit of 
Codel Cardin to Spain.  U.S.-Spain relations are strong and based on 
shared global interests, including our association in NATO, the 
fight against terrorism, and growing economic ties.  Spaniards are 
enthusiastic about President Obama, and President Zapatero's desire 
for closer bilateral relations and enhanced engagement is reflected 
in GOS stances on Afghanistan and Guantanamo.  Counter-terrorism and 
law enforcement cooperation is strong, and business ties are 
increasing.  End summary. 
 
Political and Economic Context 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Zapatero came to the Presidency in 2004 and won re-election 
in 2008, but the story since then has been the erosion in his 
popularity because of the long recession and rising unemployment. 
His center-left Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) is seven 
seats shy of a congressional majority and fared poorly in regional 
and European Parliament elections in 2009.  Polls indicate the main 
opposition party -- the center-right Popular Party or PP -- would 
win an election held today.  Zapatero is not expected to hold 
another general election until the spring of 2012. 
 
¶3. (U) Spain grew much faster than the EU average over the 15 years 
through 2007 and now has the world's 9th largest economy.  The rapid 
growth was driven by a housing boom that ended in 2007, after which 
the world economic crisis aggravated the economy's woes.  Spain has 
been in recession for almost two years.  The economy is to be the 
last large economy to begin to recover, and the eventual recovery is 
expected to be sluggish.  Unemployment, now over 19 percent, is 
expected to pass 20 percent this year.  The GOS has responded with a 
major fiscal stimulus.  This has boosted the budget deficit above 11 
percent of GDP, and the GOS will have to limit spending 
significantly between now and 2013 to meet EU deficit requirements. 
In recent days, financial markets have driven down the value of 
Spanish debt, apparently because of concern that the government will 
not be able to address its budget difficulties.  Zapatero's 
government is working to reorient Spain's economy towards more 
sustainable sectors, with renewable energy a key priority.  Spain, 
the tenth largest foreign investor in the U.S., is especially active 
in wind and solar power, banking, and road construction.  The U.S. 
is also a major investor in Spain. 
 
EU Presidency 
------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Spain's presidency of the Council of the EU gives Zapatero an 
opportunity to emphasize an international role to counter the 
negative domestic economic situation.  However, Spain's role is 
constrained by the need to adjust to the new roles of EU President 
Van Rompuy and High Representative Ashton.  The GOS has also been 
stung by foreign press criticism that Spain's economic difficulties 
disqualify it from helping lead EU economic recovery efforts. 
Spain's stated priorities for its presidency are:  full 
implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon; promoting economic recovery 
and sustainable growth across Europe and launching the EU 2020 
strategy for growth and jobs; strengthening the EU's foreign policy 
to make the EU truly a global player; and fostering Europe of rights 
and freedoms for its citizens. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Spain was eager to host a U.S.-EU summit as the centerpiece 
of its Presidency and was disappointed to learn recently that this 
would not happen.  Nevertheless, the GOS is stressing the strength 
of U.S. ties to Spain and Europe and the important agenda we share. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) We are emphasizing that there was no hidden message in the 
decision regarding a summit.  The U.S. never agreed to such a summit 
(unfortunately, the GOS had publicly announced the dates implying 
 
they were agreed).  The decision was based on the President's very 
busy agenda and had nothing to do with the importance the U.S. 
attaches to Spain or Europe.  The U.S. has no more important 
relationship than the one it enjoys with Europe, and Spain is an 
important and valued ally.  The President traveled to Europe six 
times last year and met twice with Zapatero in the last year. 
Zapatero spoke at the National Prayer Breakfast February 4.  The 
President will receive King Juan Carlos at the White House February 
¶17. 
 
Terrorism 
--------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Spain remains a target for Islamic extremists.  Top 
al-Qaida leaders routinely call for the recapture of the former 
Muslim-controlled region they still call "al-Andalus."  Spain 
suffered one of the bloodiest terrorist attacks in European history 
on March 11, 2004, when Islamic extremists carried out the Madrid 
train bombings.  Spain has also been combating domestic terror from 
the Basque group ETA for more than 40 years.  Although ETA remains a 
threat, cooperation with French and Portuguese authorities have 
yielded numerous successes against ETA in recent years.  GOS 
officials value close counter-terrorism cooperation with the U.S. 
and, within the EU, have been proponents of information sharing. 
The GOS has also been supportive on enhanced airline security 
measures. 
 
Afghanistan, Guantanamo, and Security Cooperation 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶8. (U) Spain operates a Provincial Reconstruction Team in 
Afghanistan with about 1,000 troops participating in ISAF.  Zapatero 
recently announced he would seek congressional authorization to send 
another 511 troops to Afghanistan along with 40 civilian police 
trainers.  Spain has suffered nearly 90 causalities in Afghanistan, 
most in two serious aviation mishaps.  The GOS has also said it will 
take five Guantanamo detainees to assist the U.S. in closing the 
detention facility.  In both cases, Zapatero has faced public 
criticism that he has subordinated Spain's interest to President 
Obama's.  Spain also allows us the use of two military bases, Rota 
(which you will visit) and Moron, which are crucial transit points 
between the U.S. and Afghanistan and Iraq. 
 
Iran, the Middle East, and Union for the Mediterranean 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Spain supports EU initiatives on Iranian non-proliferation. 
 It recognizes the threat from the Iranian nuclear program and is 
concerned about the human rights violations in Iran.  Spain hopes a 
strong, new UN Security Council Resolution will emerge on Iran, but 
the GOS recognizes the need for enhanced sanctions in any case and 
has expressed a desire to work closely with the U.S. on this issue. 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Spain is an active diplomatic player in the Near East and 
supports U.S. peace efforts.  Spain has a good relationship with 
Syria and with the Palestinian Authority.  It has also worked in 
recent months to improve its chemistry with the Government of Israel 
and hopes PM Netanyahu will visit during Spain's EU Presidency. 
This has much to do with FM Moratinos' experience in the region as 
EU Special Envoy for the Middle East Peace Process.  Spain has over 
1,000 troops in the UN mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and recently took 
command of that mission. 
 
¶11. (U) Spain is a strong supporter of the Union for the 
Mediterranean and is working toward a summit in June in Barcelona. 
Moratinos warned recently that preparing such a summit was difficult 
because of the complicated situation in the Middle East. 
 
Maghreb and the Sahel 
--------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The importance of these regions has been increasing for 
Spain because of terrorism, illegal immigration, and narcotics 
trafficking.  The still unresolved November 2009 kidnapping in 
Mauritania by al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) of three 
Spanish NGO aid workers has garnered wide attention here and been a 
vivid reminder of the threat from AQIM. 
 
¶13. (SBU) In 2006 the maritime flow of illegal immigrants headed to 
Spain rose dramatically, with the Canary Islands being a principal 
destination.  A sustained law enforcement response has reduced the 
flow.  Members of the National Police and Civil Guard are engaged in 
security assistance and liaison programs with several countries in 
Africa (Morocco, Cape Verde, Senegal, and Mauritania).  Spain has 
increased its diplomatic engagement in West Africa in part to 
safeguard repatriation arrangements for illegal immigrants. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Spain remains a principal entry, transshipment, and 
consumption zone for the large quantities of South American cocaine 
and Moroccan cannabis destined for European consumer markets, and is 
also a major source and transit location for drug proceeds returning 
to South and Central America.  West African traffickers play an 
increasingly important role in this trade.  Spanish cooperation with 
DEA is strong. 
 
¶15. (SBU) On Western Sahara, there is strong public support in Spain 
for Polisario and the Sahrawis.  The GOS, as a former occupying 
power in what is now Western Sahara, takes a neutral position, 
calling for continued discussions over the long term.   The GOS 
supports regional consultations by the UNSYG's envoy. 
 
Somali Piracy 
------------- 
 
¶16. (SBU) Somali piracy has been a major issue for the Spanish, with 
two Spanish boats taken and ransomed in 2008 and 2009.  The issue 
has caused much embarrassment to the GOS because of its perceived 
powerlessness in the face of the pirates.  The Spanish have played a 
prominent role in the EU's anti-piracy operation (Atalanta) and have 
offered to lead an EU training mission for Somali security forces. 
 
Personal Security 
----------------- 
 
¶17. (U) In general, Spain is safe.  However, Madrid and other large 
cities attract a large number of criminals and pickpockets, and 
frequent crimes of opportunity against the unwary do occur.  It is 
best to carry only essential items, including a photocopy of your 
passport's photo page.  Visitors can protect themselves against 
crime by being street-smart, alert, and aware of their surroundings. 
 Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide 
Caution issues by the Department of State.  As the Department of 
State continues to develop information on any potential security 
threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible threat information 
through its Consular Information Program, available on the Internet 
at http://travel/state.gov. 
Additional information regarding safety and security in Spain is 
available on the U.S. Department of State's website 
(www.embusa.es). 
 
SOLOMONT