VZCZCXRO3685
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #0566 0460658
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150658Z FEB 10 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5599
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHRC/USDA WASHDC

UNCLAS KABUL 000566 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AMGT PGOV AF
SUBJECT: EFFECT OF SIV PROGRAM ON LES STAFFING IN MISSION 
AFGHANISTAN 
 
¶1.  Summary: The Afghan Allies Protection Act of 2009 allotted 1500 
Special Immigrant Visas per annum for Afghan nationals under threat 
who have worked for the US government for at least one year. In 
addition to more general immigrant eligibility requirements, 
applicants must present a letter from their supervisor confirming 
their faithful and valuable service to the U.S. Government, must 
have experienced or be experiencing an ongoing serious threat 
because of that employment, and must receive final approval from the 
Chief of Mission. Post's preliminary assessment is that many will 
apply; far fewer will go. Nonetheless, the prospect of losing any 
significant portion of our LES in a relatively short period will 
seriously impair our ability to accomplish the critical foreign 
policy objectives of our mission here.  We must develop now prudent, 
objective criteria for assessing what is a "credible threat" and 
safeguard against this Act itself becoming a catalyst for an 
immediate upsurge in allegations of threats.  End Summary 
 
¶2.  Mission Afghanistan's 575 locally-engaged staff (437 with State, 
138 with USAID) are but a fraction of the USG-employed or USG 
contractor-employed Afghans eligible for the program. But in an 
effort to gauge the SIV program's particular impact on Mission 
operations, Post conducted a survey of 112 local employees in 
January. The survey asked five questions about the length of U.S. 
Government employment, the kinds of threats employees received, how 
likely employees are to apply for a SIV, when an employee might 
submit his or her paperwork for the program, and what percentage of 
their colleagues they estimate will apply for a SIV. 
 
¶3.  Slightly over one-third of those surveyed have worked for the US 
government for more than five years. One-third have worked for less 
than one year, and another third have worked between one and five 
years. Eighty percent of our employees said they were either 
somewhat or very likely to apply for a Special Immigrant Visa. If 
qualified, fifty-three percent said they would apply in 2010, and 
42% said they would apply in 2011 or 2012. Eighty percent of our 
local employees estimated that at least one third and possibly more 
than two thirds of their colleagues would apply for the program. 
 
¶4.  Still, only 17% reported receiving personal threats, and 22% 
reported threats to their family because of their employment with 
the U.S. Government. More than 60% reported either no threats or 
non-credible threats. Without a credible and serious threat verified 
by the Mission's caseworker committee, an applicant will not receive 
the necessary approval letter from the Chief of Mission. The large 
gap in the survey results between those who say they will apply for 
the Special Immigrant Visa program and those who report any credible 
threat to themselves or their families suggests that many local 
employees will apply to the program, but far fewer will actually 
receive Special Immigrant Visas. It is also possible that threats 
will be fabricated once the program is implemented in order to 
strengthen cases. 
 
¶5.  The consequences of this legislation on our ability to carry out 
critical foreign policy objectives could prove dire.  We must rely 
upon our LES for the needed continuity even more than in a normal 
embassy because of our own one-year rotations, so we would  be hard 
pressed to cope with any significant number of SIV immigrants.  For 
example, if even twenty percent of our local staff receive Special 
Immigrant Visas over a period of one or two years, the Mission will 
face a severe challenge in recruiting and hiring successors. 
Already, we lose on average thirty local staff each year because of 
attrition to other employers, termination for cause, and illness. We 
receive many applications for each opening, but the quality of the 
applicant pool is shallow and will become more so in the years ahead 
as we compete with more NGOs and private companies for the 
relatively few qualified candidates. 
 
¶6. Post is reviewing options and will offer recommendations within 
the next several weeks. 
 
EIKENBERRY