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RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS BOGOTA 000239 
 
SENSITIVE 
CODEL 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL EAID PGOV MCAP MOPS PTER ETRD PHUM SNAR OREP CO
SUBJECT: COLOMBIA SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LEMIEUX (FEBRUARY 17-19) 
 
SUMMARY 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Your upcoming visit to Bogota and two Colombian military 
facilities is an opportunity to discuss with the Colombians our 
shared fight against illegal drugs and illegal armed groups as well 
as the underlying social inequality that drives both phenomena. 
The possible referendum to allow President Uribe to seek a third 
term remains the central chord of Colombian politics and will 
define the tone of congressional elections in March and the 
presidential elections in May.  Bilateral relations with Colombia 
remain solid but will be tested by our handling of the 
U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the regional 
sensitivities to our Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA).  Despite 
improving performance on human rights throughout Plan Colombia, 
there are continuing abuses and potential for backsliding.  The 
Colombian Armed Forces are back on track in their fight against the 
Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) with successful 
strikes on several key guerrilla commanders in 2010.  The December 
2009 kidnapping and assassination of a departmental governor 
demonstrated that the FARC can still carry out high profile attacks 
against the state.  Prospects for peace in the near term are 
limited.  Embassy Bogota has begun implementing the Colombia 
Strategic Development Initiative (CSDI) -- the logical evolution of 
Plan Colombia -- with greater focus on expanding state services in 
Colombia's ungoverned spaces where illegal armed groups and the 
illicit economy flourish.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
COLOMBIA IN TRANSITION 
 
---------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Embassy Bogota welcomes the visit of Senator George 
Lemieux and delegation to Colombia on February 17-19, 2010.  In the 
past ten years, Colombia has transitioned from a near failed state 
and terrorist haven to a stable democracy.  Murder and kidnapping 
rates have dropped dramatically, while the rule of law has been 
strengthened through major judicial reforms.  While Colombia still 
experiences serious problems with illegal armed groups, the 
conflict has ceased to be a threat to Colombia's national security 
and sovereignty. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Colombia's turnaround can be attributed to improvements in 
overall security, but further progress depends on resolving chronic 
issues such as social inequality and land tenure.  Colombia has 
made significant inroads in confronting narco-terrorism but drug 
trafficking organizations and illegal armed groups, often with ties 
to guerillas and organized crime, still operate in large parts of 
the country, including along borders. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Colombia has been feeling the effects of the global 
economic crisis, though the impact has been lessened by 
conservative lending practices coupled with sound fiscal and 
monetary policies that have attracted foreign investment.  Growth 
rates for 2009 were close to zero, but the GOC predicts 2.5% growth 
this year.  Poverty rates have also decreased, though unemployment 
remains a major problem.  About 60% of the economy is mired in the 
informal sector. 
 
 
 
REELECTION AND ELECTIONS 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Colombian Congress passed a law in September 
permitting a referendum on whether President Alvaro Uribe may stand 
for a third term in the presidential elections on May 30, 2010. 
The Constitutional Court must now rule on the referendum process 
and its impact on the Constitution, a decision that may come in 
February or March.  If the referendum does go forward, 25% of 
registered voters must participate with the majority of those 
voting in favor of reelection; current polls suggest Uribe would 
win in this scenario.  President Uribe seldom speaks publicly of 
the referendum, characterizing it as a grassroots initiative of 
Colombian citizens.  His popularity continues to hover around 70% 
after more than seven years in office.  Should Uribe not run again, 
there are strong but far less popular candidates who could continue 
his policies, such as former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos or 
former mayor of Medellin Sergio Fajardo.  Elections to replace the 
entire Congress (166 Representatives and 102 Senators) will be held 
on March 14, 2010. 
 
 
 
BILATERAL AND REGIONAL RELATIONS 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Colombia has been a staunch U.S. ally against the threats 
of narcotrafficking and terrorism.  We continue to enjoy a robust 
extradition relationship, though the Supreme Court in 2009 denied 
requests to extradite the FARC operatives charged with taking 
hostage or attempting to harm U.S. citizens.  Colombia is our 
fourth largest export market in the region and a growing 
destination for U.S. investment.  However, Colombia is moving ahead 
with many free trade agreements with other countries, which have 
the potential of reducing U.S. agriculture exports to Colombia. 
Our close relations have made Colombia a target of criticism from 
some leaders in the region, especially after the signing of the 
DCA.  The GOC has begun to patch up diplomatic relations with 
Ecuador, which Ecuador severed following Colombia's March 2008 
military strike against FARC leader Raul Reyes in Ecuador.  The 
Colombians have also recently engaged in "security diplomacy," 
providing training and assistance to neighbors (such as Mexico and 
Haiti) suffering from drug trafficking and organized crime as well 
as a possible deployment to Afghanistan. 
 
 
 
CLOSE COORDINATION ON AID TO HAITI 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) Following the devastating earthquake in Haiti, Colombia 
closely coordinated with the United States the largest humanitarian 
aid effort in its history.  Colombian assets in Haiti are under the 
Joint Task Force (JTF) HQ for Unified Response tactical control 
(TACON) and USSOUTHCOM approved the use of MILGRP support flights 
to transport Colombian assistance to Haiti, using what would have 
been the empty return leg of travel back to the United States with 
a capacity of up to 120,000 pounds of cargo.  The Colombian 
military was averaging one to two flights to Haiti per day during 
the initial week of the crisis and is flying sustainment flights as 
needed, loaded with humanitarian relief and personnel.  Over 400 
Colombian personnel have deployed to Haiti in relief efforts. 
Colombia also sent a naval ship with humanitarian supplies (and is 
preparing a second), as well as a mobile military hospital and 
search and rescue teams. 
 
VENEZUELA ON THE MIND 
 
--------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Colombian officials worry that Venezuela poses a growing 
military, economic, and covert threat.  Venezuela has found it 
politically expedient to criticize the DCA during regional 
meetings, although Colombia has largely assuaged the concerns of 
other important regional players such as Brazil.  The GOC has 
sounded alarms in response to Venezuela's arms purchases, all but 
open support for the FARC, border incursions, and bellicose 
rhetoric -- including Chavez' statements to "prepare for war" and 
refusal to meet with Uribe in Brazilian brokered talks.  Caracas 
has blocked imports from Colombia, leading to border area 
confrontations and unrest.  Bilateral trade, once thought to be of 
sufficient volume to prevent bilateral conflict, has fallen 
dramatically since August.  Colombian exports declined by 33% in 
2009 compared to 2008.  We see no evidence that either side is 
actively preparing for hostilities.  However, as tensions along the 
border rise and perceptions skew, there is a small risk that a 
local incident could spiral out of control.  Real or not, the 
perception of the threat posed by Venezuela has changed Colombians' 
worldview, causing them to seek ever greater assurances of our 
friendship and support. 
 
 
 
TRADE PROMOTION AND LABOR VIOLENCE 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) President Uribe publicly adheres to the commitment 
President Obama made in their June 29 meeting to move the FTA 
forward in the U.S. Congress once labor and human rights issues are 
adequately addressed.  While Colombians generally understand U.S. 
political realities associated with a vote on the FTA, frustration 
has grown within the government, business and academic communities 
over the lack of action on the accord.  GOC hopes were heightened, 
however, when President Obama highlighted Colombia in his State of 
the Union Address and February 11 BusinessWeek interview. 
Colombian business leaders fear that long-term inaction on the FTA 
will be detrimental to U.S.-Colombian relations.  Both government 
and private sector leaders fear that U.S. delays in ratification 
will harm prospects for ratification of trade deals with Canada and 
the European Union.  The majority of organized labor is opposed to 
free trade agreements and argues that the GOC needs to do more to 
respect worker rights and to protect unionists from violence.  In 
2009, 39 unionists were murdered, which is less than the 49 murders 
in 2008 and represents a lower homicide rate for unionists than for 
the general population -- the homicide rate for unionists in 2009 
was 5 per 100,000 compared to 34 per 100,000 for the general 
population. 
 
 
 
HUMAN RIGHTS 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) By nearly all measures, the human rights situation in 
Colombia has improved dramatically over the last ten years. 
Serious human rights concerns remain, however, especially with 
regard to the Colombian Army.  The 2008 exposure of military "false 
positives," in which unarmed civilians were murdered and presented 
 
as combat deaths, led to the dismissal of 51 members of the 
Colombian Army.  We are concerned about the military's lukewarm 
commitment to investigating these types of cases and its poor 
cooperation with the Prosecutor General's office.  We are working 
with the Colombian military to improve its respect for human rights 
as it carries out security operations.  Impunity for human rights 
violations and past crimes carried out by paramilitary and 
guerrilla groups is a serious problem.  NGOs complain that the GOC 
regularly paints them as supporters of terrorist organizations, 
which in turn fuels growing death threats against them. 
Revelations that Colombian intelligence and law enforcement 
entities carried out illegal surveillance against human rights 
groups, unionists and political opponents have also undermined the 
GOC's credibility on human rights.  Colombia has more than three 
million internally displaced persons (IDPs). 
 
 
 
AFRO-COLOMBIAN AND INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Colombia's populations of Afro-descendants (between 11 
and 20% of the population) and indigenous (between 1 and 3% of the 
population) suffer from discrimination, social exclusion, 
structural poverty, and lack of political participation.  This 
marginalization allows illicit drug cultivation or trafficking to 
move into their communities, subjecting them to a disproportionate 
share of violence and displacement.  The GOC created the Commission 
for the Advancement of Afro-Colombians to help improve education, 
income generation, and political representation within the 
Afro-Colombian population.  However, the Colombian Congress has not 
passed legislation to implement the commission's recommendations. 
The Embassy has implemented special programs to help Afro-Colombian 
and indigenous populations realize greater participation in the 
political and economic life of the country, and Deputy Secretary of 
State James Steinberg and Foreign Minister Jaime Bermudez signed a 
bilateral Action Plan on Racial and Ethnic Equality on January 12, 
¶2010.  Recognizing the need for increased participation and 
integration of Afro-Colombians and African descendants worldwide, 
Colombia presented to the UN an initiative proclaiming 2011 as 
International Year for People of African descent, which was 
approved with unanimous consent. 
 
 
 
CONFLICT STALLED, PEACE DELAYED 
 
------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) The GOC made significant progress against the FARC in 
2008:  the deaths of 3 FARC Secretariat members, the liberation of 
15 prized political hostages, including 3 Americans, and record 
high desertions.  Progress in 2009 was mixed, however.  The 
December 2009 kidnapping and assassination of the governor of 
Caqueta Department marked the highest profile political kidnapping 
by the FARC since President Uribe assumed office in 2002.  The 
Colombian Armed Forces has scored major successes in 2010 with 
strikes that have killed or seriously wounded several front 
commanders, hampering the FARC's offensive and logistical 
capabilities.  Nonetheless, the FARC can still carry out 
asymmetrical attacks on selective soft targets.  Any significant 
progress towards peace seems unlikely until after the elections; we 
expect the guerrilla groups to wait to see whether Uribe will be 
reelected before considering a broader peace process. 
 
 
 
THE COLOMBIA STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVE 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) To consolidate the gains of Plan Colombia, we have 
developed the Colombia Strategic Development Initiative (CSDI), 
which meshes with Colombia's own National Consolidation Plan (PNC). 
Our efforts initially focus on four priority zones of ongoing 
conflict, drug trafficking and social marginalization.  PNC/CSDI 
has prioritized addressing the lack of state presence that enables 
coca production and illegal armed groups, and seeks to establish 
state presence in strategic, under-governed parts of the country. 
The plan is centered on increasing territorial control in these 
areas to provide security for communities, to achieve permanent 
coca eradication, to transfer security responsibility to the 
police, to provide a wide range of socio-economic services to 
address the root causes of marginalization, and to improve the 
justice sector to strengthen the rule of law.  A major challenge to 
implementation is achieving strong, effective civilian leadership 
of the PNC.  The head of Social Action (Accion Social), Colombia's 
development agency, is the titular head of the PNC effort. 
Civilian agencies have been reluctant, however, to devote their 
budgets to the effort, often leaving the Ministry of Defense 
organizationally in front.  Other obstacles include the need for a 
comprehensive GOC security strategy to transition from military to 
police in "consolidated" territories, more clarity on a 
post-eradication strategy, stronger presence of the justice sector 
in CSDI areas, and increased funding support for PNC ministries in 
the GOC budget. 
 
 
 
MILGRP: AIMING FOR IRREVERSIBILITY 
 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶14. (SBU) The Military Group (MILGRP) is one of three primary CSDI 
implementing agencies and the lead agency in the CSDI Central Band 
-- stretching from the former FARC stronghold in the Department of 
Meta to Buenaventura on the Pacific coast.  MILGRP supports the 
Colombian military in achieving territorial control of conflict 
zones through training, equipment, fuel, and flight hours, in order 
to allow subsequent interventions in socio-economic development and 
democratic governance.  MILGRP also assists throughout the 
consolidation process through support to Regional Coordination 
Centers, humanitarian assistance, counternarcotics, and de-mining. 
 
 
 
¶15. (U) MILGRP has focused its support to the Colombian military 
using a three phased approach.  The first focused on building 
Colombian military forces, projecting those forces into ungoverned 
spaces and securing those spaces.  It also supported offensive 
operations against illegal armed groups on a scale never seen 
before.  The second phase, currently being executed, focuses on 
securing, consolidating and sustaining those gains, increasing 
offensive operations against illegal armed groups, and ensuring the 
irreversibility of those gains.  The third phase, to be initiated 
in 2011, is to promote a strategic partnership to sustain key 
Colombian military capabilities. 
 
 
 
¶16. (SBU) The MILGRP currently supports eight program areas:  joint 
rotary wing, ground operations, riverine operations, governability, 
airpower, maritime interdiction, joint intelligence and 
communications, and joint force initiatives.  Support to these 
programs is vital in both the short- and long-terms.  In the 
short-term, we will assist Colombia in controlling illegal armed 
groups and bringing peace and rule of law to the Colombian 
 
population.  In the long-term, we will focus on building a 
strategic partnership with Colombia and developing key Colombian 
military capabilities that can support U.S. national security 
objectives worldwide. 
 
 
 
VISIT TO COLOMBIAN BASES 
 
------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶17. (SBU) You will be the first U.S. Member of Congress to visit 
the Tolemeida Military Fort in Nilo municipality, Cundinamarca -- 
one of the seven named DCA bases.  Tolemeida is also the 
headquarters for the Colombian Army's rotary wing aviation brigade. 
Developing the Colombian military's air mobility capabilities 
constitutes the single most important contribution of U.S. Southern 
Command under Plan Colombia -- as air mobility has been the key 
enabler for the Colombian military's significant gains over 
insurgent groups in conflict areas.  Colombian Special Forces units 
under the Joint Command for Special Operations (CCOES) are trained 
at Tolemeida.  Thirty-eight Colombian soldiers are currently being 
trained at this facility to join U.S. forces as part of Operation 
Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan.  You will also visit the Colombian 
air base in Melgar, Tolima, where we help support training programs 
with U.S. aviation simulators.  Both of these bases will also serve 
as regional helicopter training centers, with the Government of 
Mexico serving as the test case for this regional training 
initiative. 
BROWNFIELD