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DE RUEHBO #0165/01 0362325
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R 052325Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2641
INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO
RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS BOGOTA 000165 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER SNAR EAID CO
SUBJECT: Mixed Reactions to Plan Colombia Cut, GOC to Lobby US 
Congress 
 
Summary 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) The Government of Colombia's (GOC) reaction to the 
announcement of cuts to USG Plan Colombia assistance has been 
measured and has recognized fiscal realities in the United States 
as well as Plan Colombia's natural tendency towards reduced 
assistance.  Still, officials have expressed concerns over 
reductions in eradication funding, citing high levels of coca 
cultivation and the need to consolidate gains under Plan Colombia. 
Minister of Defense Gabriel Silva plans to travel to Washington 
next week to lobby for sustained Plan Colombia support.  A 
presidential candidate, and a prominent NGO analyst, inferred 
deeper messages, saying the cut signals disapproval of a possible 
third Uribe term and a shift in U.S. policy.  Other analysts said 
the reduction should have come with an explicit message that the 
cuts represented success in attacking narco-trafficking 
organizations and that the United States has taken a decision to 
confront the social roots of the Colombian conflict.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
U.S. Fiscal Realities & Plan Colombia Glide Path 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) The GOC has reacted rationally to the USG announcement of 
FY11 Plan Colombia reductions and emphasized that it should not be 
a surprise.  President Uribe said the United States will continue 
being an ally and will not abandon Colombia.  He added that two 
things need to be acknowledged:  the U.S. budget deficit is very 
large -- 10% of GDP as compared to 4.5% in Colombia, and Plan 
Colombia has always been spoken of in transitory terms.  Vice 
President Francisco Santos said the idea has always been that the 
Colombian state would progressively assume charge of the efforts 
financed by Plan Colombia.  Diego Molano, head of the President's 
Agency for Social Action and International Cooperation (Accion 
Social), also stated the cuts were predictable and added that they 
did not represent a punishment for false positives or the illegal 
wiretapping scandals of the Administrative Department of Security 
(DAS). 
 
 
 
Eradication Primary Concern 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU)  While Uribe acknowledged Plan Colombia's realities,  he 
also warned not to lower the guard against coca cultivation as 
large amounts still exist in Colombia.  Uribe pointed to apparent 
flexibility in Washington for more manual eradication funds as a 
positive, since coca cultivation has transitioned from vast tracts 
to small parcels.  Molano also expressed concerns about reductions 
in spending on eradication, which is a key component of the 
National Consolidation Plan and vital to reinforce alternative 
development.  Colombian Ambassador to the United States Carolina 
Barco stated that, in light of the cut, a review is necessary to 
find the most effective strategy involving manual eradication and 
aerial spraying. 
 
 
 
Potential Budget Impacts Downplayed 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) Uribe affirmed that everyone is going to have to do the same 
with less money by being more efficient.  General Freddy Padilla, 
Commander of the Armed Forces, said for now the cuts will not 
 
 
affect the military since they can count on resources for the next 
six months, which they will optimize, and await the next budget in 
September.  Molano said the cuts will not affect Accion Social's 
social programs, which are largely paid for out of Colombia's own 
national budget. 
 
 
 
GOC Will Lobby U.S. Congress 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Despite public acceptance, the GOC plans to lobby the U.S. 
Congress for sustained Plan Colombia support and Minister of 
Defense Gabriel Silva plans to travel to Washington next week with 
Vice Minister Jorge Mario Eastman.  Molano said the Ministries of 
Foreign Affairs and Defense were covering all fronts in the United 
States to demonstrate the importance of maintaining the levels and 
priorities of Plan Colombia, with respect to cooperation in 
security and social development. 
 
 
 
Adapting Counternarcotics Strategies 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) In light of the reduction, Colombian Ambassador Barco stated 
that a regional counternarcotics strategy is needed that includes 
the United States, Mexico, Central America, and Colombia.  Jairo 
Clopatofsky, Senator of Uribe's U party, was more pointed, saying 
the announced cuts go against the commitment the United States has 
had with Colombia to support the eradication of illicit crops, 
which according to him now amounts to more than 140,000 hectares. 
Opposition Senator Cecilia Lopez, Liberal Party, went even further 
saying the reduction should be a lesson in the failure of the war 
against drugs, and the Colombian government will now have to 
envision a way to assume the responsibilities of its own conflicts 
and put counternarcotics on the global agenda. 
 
 
 
Presidential Candidate Faults Uribe Third Term 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) German Vargas Lleras, presidential candidate of the Radical 
Change Party (anti-reelection but supportive of Uribe policies), 
blamed Uribe's possible third term saying the USG has clearly 
demonstrated that it is against reelection.  He also faulted 
Colombian diplomacy for allowing the United States to cut 
assistance to its principal ally in the region. 
 
 
 
Prominent NGO Analyst Says GOC "Disgraced" 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) Leon Valencia, of respected think tank New Rainbow 
Corporation, wrote that the Plan Colombia cuts were the culmination 
of several signals that the GOC has been disgraced in Washington, 
and the United States is shifting its Colombia policy.  According 
to Valencia, the signals have been the failure to ratify the 
U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement, rejections of an Uribe third 
term, calls to respect human rights, and the two critical letters 
sent from the U.S. Congress to Secretary Clinton.  Other NGOs have 
been largely silent on the issue. 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Political violence expert Gonzalo Sanchez told Polcouns 
February 3 that he thought the cuts should have been announced with 
a clear message that the United States had taken a decision to 
attack the social roots of the Colombian conflict such as poverty 
and land access.  Center-right security analyst and columnist 
Alfredo Rangel told Polcouns February 4 the cuts were 
understandable given the GOC's success in attacking 
narco-trafficking organizations.  He added, however, that Colombia 
still needs help from the international community with justice 
sector reform and alternative development. 
 
 
 
Continued Support Needed to Consolidate Gains 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶10. (U) Vice President Santos said he was in complete disagreement 
with criticisms that Plan Colombia has been a failure.  He 
described the Plan as a historic success in fighting against 
narcotics, combating illegal armed groups and establishing 
governance.  Santos maintained that Colombia needs continued 
support in security matters to consolidate those advances. 
BROWNFIELD