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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000264 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT:  PRESIDENT GUL'S TERM: FIVE YEARS OR SEVEN? 
 
ANKARA 00000264  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Turkey is beginning to discuss whether President 
Gul's term of office should be five or seven years.  While the 
parliament is just starting to work out the details of the country's 
first direct presidential election, opposition parties are firm 
about limiting Gul's time in office to five years.  Analysts suspect 
the issue reveals a rift between the President and the Prime 
Minister.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On May 31, 2007, the Turkish Grand National Assembly passed a 
constitutional amendment that stated the president would be directly 
elected for a five-year term.  However, because  the amendment 
passed with more than three-fifths but less than two-thirds of the 
votes in parliament, it went to a referendum, which was passed on 
October 30, 2007.  In the meantime, before the amendment was passed, 
the current president, Abdullah Gul, was elected by the Parliament 
on August 28, 2007 to a seven-year term.  The amendment made no 
reference to changing the term of the sitting president. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The specific manner in which the President will be elected 
under the new amendment is being ironed out in a draft election law 
by a subcommittee of the Constitutional Committee.  The media has 
speculated that the Parliament Laws and Regulations Department 
requested the Parliament Speaker intervene so that Gul's term would 
be decided in the election law.  However, our sources indicate that 
only one expert in that Department supports this approach.  The 
Constitutional Committee itself believes Gul's term cannot be 
discussed in the draft law because it is a constitutional matter 
which cannot be regulated by a law.  The chair of the subcommittee, 
AKP deputy Ayhan Sefer Ustun, told us that the subcommittee will not 
insert any provisions about the term of the current President in its 
draft.  Ustun said Gul has the "acquired right" to remain in the 
office for seven years. 
 
¶4. (U) Debate on this issue flared up when President Gul, during a 
visit to India last week, said the length of his term of office is 
not clear.  Subsequently, the President of the main opposition 
Republican People's Party (CHP), Deniz Baykal, fueled the debate, 
insisting that there is no doubt about Gul's term: it is five years. 
 Baykal noted there is no reference in the constitutional amendment 
to the sitting President, and added that no one working for the 
state administration has the right to demand "acquired" rights. 
(Note: In Turkey anyone who works for the state administration is 
bound by whatever laws and regulations are in force, no matter when 
they were passed or under what conditions the person was hired. 
Using this reasoning, the President could not argue that he should 
retain his seven-year term if the new rules limit it to five years. 
End note.)  Baykal upped the ante by adding that if Gul insisted on 
staying in office for seven years, it would create a "regime 
problem." 
 
¶5. (U) The public debate reveals two camps.   In the first, people 
defend Gul completing his seven-year term.  AKP Parliamentary Deputy 
Group Chairman Bekir Bozdag, and Bahcesehir University Faculty of 
Law Professor Suheyl Batum, share the opinion that the rules in 
force when the parliament elected Gul should be implemented.  Bozdag 
said that if a presidential election were held in 2012, it would 
mean that the President was being removed from office before the end 
of his term.  In addition, Galatasaray University Faculty of Law 
Dean, Prof. Necmi Yuzbasioglu, and Star daily columnist and 
Constitutional Professor Mustafa Erdogan approach the issue from the 
legal perspective.  Yuzbasioglu said "in public law there are 
statutes.  The Presidency is ruled by a statute.  The rules valid at 
the time of his election shall be implemented.  Thus for the current 
President a seven-year term is valid.  When the new President is 
elected by the people, he will serve for five years." Prof. Mustafa 
Erdogan defended the same view, and added that this is not a matter 
of "an acquired right." 
 
¶6. (U) In the second camp, those who defend the view that President 
Gul should end his term in 2012 and make way for the next 
Presidential elections argue that Gul's position is bound by 
statute.  It would be different, they say, if the constitutional 
amendment had referred to Gul's situation.  Former Justice Minister 
and Constitutional Law Professor Hikmet Sami Turk said that this is 
an issue of "statute law," but the new law should supersede: "it 
makes no difference whether or not Gul was elected when the term was 
seven years, the new constitution says that it is five years."  AKP 
Deputy and former TGNA Speaker Koksal Toptan, and opposition 
National Action Party (MHP) President Devlet Bahceli, also believe 
that the Presidential election should be held in 2012. 
 
ANKARA 00000264  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Isa Gok, the CHP's representative on the subcommittee 
preparing the draft election law, highlighted another controversy. 
He pointed out that the draft law presented by the government aims 
to set up Prime Minister Erdogan to be elected into the Presidency. 
Gok said that for public employees to be nominated for President, 
they must leave their positions to become candidates, but there are 
no regulations set out in the draft for how the Prime Minister would 
do this.  He opined that this means that Erdogan would be able to 
use state resources -- including his official plane and funds -- 
during his campaign period.  He also expressed concern that although 
the candidates are allowed to use the state-run television network, 
TRT, for disseminating information during their campaigns, TRT is 
under the control of the Prime Minister. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Analysts are also examining President Gul's position on the 
issue.  Gul has never said he would not run for President again. 
This seems to suggest, they say, a significant rift between Gul and 
the Prime Minister. 
 
JEFFREY