VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAK #0189/01 0351207
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041207Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2006
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 6911
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ANKARA 000189 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: CVIS PREL PINS PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR
SUBJECT: Iranians Seek Global Support Not Nuclear Pressure 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: In the wake of President Obama's State of the 
Union Address on January 27, 2010, CONOFFs surveyed Iranian 
non-immigrant visa (NIV) and immigrant visa (IV) applicants to 
assess their reaction to US pressure regarding Iran's nuclear 
program.  Although applicants voiced strong support for the 
opposition movement and distrust of the regime, they also expressed 
strong support for Iran's nuclear rights.  Applicants stated that 
the US and international community should focus their efforts at 
supporting the Iranian people in their efforts to change the 
government rather than focusing on halting Iranians nuclear program. 
 Many applicants stressed that coercive action to counter Iran's 
nuclear program would only harm the opposition which is growing 
stronger daily, while bolstering support for the regime. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Applicants told CONOFFs they heard about President Obama's 
State of the Union remarks concerning Iran through Voice of America 
and other international news sources.  One applicant noted that 90% 
of Iranians have access to international satellite broadcasts which 
include CNN and Fox news.  In light of President Obama's message to 
Iran about the consequences Iran would face if it fails to meet 
international demands over its nuclear program, most applicants 
expressed that, although they distrust their government and support 
the opposition, their country has a right to pursue nuclear 
technology.  A textile factory owner from Karaj told CONOFF that 
despite broad opposition to the government, Iranians do not like 
others telling them what their country is permitted to do.  A Baha'i 
medical supply store owner, although greatly opposed to the regime, 
indicated that it was important for Iran to continue its nuclear 
program as it had vast benefits for Iranians, using the medical 
field as an example.  A Tehrani international lawyer emphasized that 
the majority of Iranians support the nuclear program but not its 
military use.  He added that as an international lawyer he agrees 
that Iran must comply with international law in its nuclear 
pursuits.  Only an IV couple, retired Ministry of Welfare and Social 
Security (MWSS) employees, voiced some skepticism as they did not 
see any use for a nuclear energy program considering Iran's vast oil 
and gas reserves. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) With one exception, applicants said that although they 
hold high hopes for future change, the political-security situation 
in Tehran was "very bad."  Most of our applicants voiced strong 
support for the opposition and indicated that it held broad support 
among the majority of Iranians.  They blamed the government's 
intensified crackdown by means of arrests, torture, and execution as 
contributing to the deteriorating situation.  Some applicants chose 
not to answer CONOFFs questions as they were afraid to speak.  The 
Baha'i applicant, after asking if it was safe to talk, noted the 
government has increased its surveillance and harassment of 
religious minorities in Iran, now including Iran's Sunni community. 
The Iranian MWSS retirees explained the depth of unhappiness 
throughout Iranian society is demonstrated by the tens of millions 
of Iranians who have chosen to emigrate from Iran since the 
revolution.  All their siblings now live in the US or France.  They 
added that if change comes to Iran for the better, Iranians would 
likely return to Iran due to their sense of nationalism.  An Islamic 
Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) employee said the housing and 
stock markets are so stagnant that many are converting their money 
into gold.  Only one unemployed, uneducated Tehrani youth 
immigrating to the US scornfully said the opposition was a failure 
and said that the security situation in Tehran was much better than 
Ankara. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Many expect the coming February 11 2010 demonstrations to 
be significant with broad support among the population.  Applicants 
note that the protests may be student led, but Iranians of all types 
will participate.  The MWSS retirees explained that the students, 
six million strong, have been vigorously campaigning especially 
among Iranian workers.  They added that with a worsening economy, 
less and less people are able to lead comfortable lives in Iran 
leading to increased opposition support.  No applicant could give a 
prediction about when or how they believe the opposition would 
succeed but most appeared optimistic that the government would 
eventually be forced to compromise and implement democratic 
reforms. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Applicants expressed various views on how the US and the 
international community should react towards Iran's internal 
developments.  Some said that the US should not make any agreements 
with the government that could lend it legitimacy.  Others feared 
any coercion against the regime, especially military, would only 
serve to nationalize the people in support of the regime and destroy 
all opposition.  A young Tehrani woman said she did not think the 
opposition could survive unless there was increased international 
support in the face of the regime's heavy handed crackdown.  She 
emphasized that support must be clearly international and from a 
broad array of countries in order to prevent the government from 
attributing the opposition to foreign interference. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) A young neurosurgeon going on a research assistantship 
voiced grief for the Iranian people who have lost two generations to 
 
tyranny.  He added that the U.S. has not differentiated between the 
Iranian people who love America and the government.  He added that 
while Iranians are overall a moderate people, they face much greater 
hardships in obtaining U.S. visas than applicants from Arab 
countries such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia which contain problems of 
fanaticism hostile to the U.S. within their populations.  He added 
that he has not seen one instance of an Iranian involvement in 
terrorism against the American people.  He said despite this 
Iranians continue their love of America and the American people. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT: Although most applicants still indicate 
reluctance to actively participate in Iran's opposition movement, 
CONOFFs continue to see overwhelming and broad popular support for 
it.  Admittedly, Iranian applicants in Turkey are a self-selected 
contact base who tend to reflect the views of Iran's upper and 
middle classes:  professionals, typically university-educated, and 
predisposed to western travel.  Many of our applicants are either 
financially stable and have learned to tolerate the regime (by 
benefitting financially from regime connections, or by avoiding 
politics altogether), or in the case of those immigrating or 
studying in the U.S., have made a choice to leave the country rather 
than confront the regime.  That said, as the Iranian economy 
continues to falter and the regime's tactics continue to harden, 
fewer and fewer Iranians will have the same choices these applicants 
do. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment, continued:  Our Iranian applicants were very 
clear that international concerns over Iran's nuclear program would 
be better served by supporting the opposition movement's desire for 
a reformed, more transparent, more accountable political system in 
Iran rather than focusing efforts on how to deal with the current 
regime. Many applicants surmised that reform in Iran's political 
system would lead to greater transparency in Iran's nuclear program 
which could assuage international fears.  END COMMENT. 
 
JEFFREY