VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0126/01 0330957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020957Z FEB 10
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3252
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9677
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 1062

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused 
February 2 news coverage on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; on 
developments in cross-Strait relations; on the reform of the KMT; 
and on the year-end five city and county magistrates' elections. 
 
¶2. Editorials and commentaries in the Chinese-language papers 
continued to discuss the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.  An editorial 
and an analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" criticized 
the KMT for opposing the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan when it was the 
opposition party, and said President Ma Ying-jeou's tilting toward 
China has resulted in a non-equidistant relationship between 
Washington, Beijing and Taipei.  A column in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" said Beijing has decided to adopt a tough attitude 
toward U.S. arms sales to Taiwan because it was both annoyed and 
frustrated with President Barack Obama and Ma Ying-jeou.  Two op-ed 
pieces in the pro-unification "United Daily News" also discussed 
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.  One articles said Taiwan needs to take 
precautions against a possible disaster caused by U.S. arms sales to 
Taiwan, while the other article said both Washington and Beijing are 
putting on a show, but Taiwan needs to shed tears of gratitude.  An 
editorial in the KMT-leaning "China Times" said problems need to be 
resolved in terms of Washington-Beijing-Taipei ties in the wake of 
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.  An editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" said "if China can brew such a storm 
over what is an arms sale that was meant to please all sides and 
minimize the damage to Sino-US relations, then the chances of Taiwan 
getting the weapons it really needs look alarmingly slim."  End 
summary. 
 
A) "The Taiwan Issue Is a Subject Involving the International 
Community and Must Not Go as Whatever Ma Ying-jeou Says So " 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 680,000] 
editorialized (2/2): 
 
"The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency finally announced an 
arms sales package to Taiwan over the weekend, including the Patriot 
Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles. ... Having received this 
'belated gift,' Taiwan really needs to study and figure out:  How 
come the two most important main dishes on the menu that we want to 
purchase -- F-16 C/D fighter jets and diesel-fueled submarines -- 
were not served?  What kind of truth has Beijing's stern and blunt 
reaction [to the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan] told us in terms of its 
Taiwan policy?  The fact that Obama chose to make public at this 
moment his decision to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan, though not 
totally unexpected, has indeed reflected that the global climate is 
changing silently. ... 
 
"Washington announced the five military items it wants to sell 
Taiwan, making sure that it will not become an outsider in terms of 
the rapidly developing political and economic relations between 
Taiwan and China.  In the meantime, despite the dispute over [the 
U.S. military base in] Futenma, Okinawa, the governments of the 
United States and Japan also decided to hold high-level negotiations 
on the U.S.-Japan security treaty in Tokyo today.  The two countries 
will also host a foreign minister dialogue in Hawaii next week to 
discuss how to deepen their alliance in the face of China's rise and 
Pyongyang's nuclear problem.  All these showed that the Obama 
administration, unwilling to make the outside world mistakenly 
believe that [the United States] is 'absent' [from Asia], has 
changed its policy direction into proactively participating in the 
Asia-Pacific region.  This is a subtle yet interesting adjustment in 
terms of the dynamic balance in the region. ... 
 
"The procurement of F-16 C/D fighter jets is essential to Taiwan's 
air force's plan to strengthen its air domination, and the gradual 
acquisition of the submarines further involves an overhaul of 
[Taiwan's] defense strategy.  Both are about Taiwan's common 
national interests.  How will the KMT, which used to criticize the 
Bian administration's [loosely] assembled and exploitive arms 
procurements, [National Security Council Secretary-General] Su Chi, 
who used to stubbornly oppose [arms procurements] in the Legislative 
Yuan..., and Ma Ying-jeou, who was then the KMT chairman, look at 
what they did in the past? ..." 
 
B) "Washington, Beijing and Taipei Are Not Equidistant; Ma Makes the 
Wrong Chess Move by Tilting toward China" 
 
Journalist Lo Tien-ping noted in an analysis in the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" [circulation: 680,000] (2/2): 
 
"...In the midst of the People's Liberation Army generals' 
criticisms against Ma Ying-jeou, the delicate balance between the 
Chinese doves and hawks toward Taiwan has been broken.  China's 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of National Defense, which 
hold a tough stance toward Taiwan, were standing on the front line 
criticizing Washington and Taipei.  The Chinese authorities not only 
did not stop them but gave tacit permission.  This development all 
the more indicated that the thinking of the Chinese authorities has 
now changed, and Beijing is more confident now in its ability to 
change U.S. policy.  For Taiwan, this is a serious warning signal. 
 
 
"The Ma administration believes that it can strike a balance in the 
development of the triangular relationship between Washington, 
Beijing and Taipei, and it has constantly denied the outside 
criticisms that Ma is pro-China and tilting toward China.  But this 
is just an image that deceives Ma himself and others.  It is indeed 
a fact that China is growing more and more powerful, and the 
development of the triangular relationship between Washington, 
Beijing and Taipei is no longer as equidistant as it was before.  As 
one party of this triangular power, Taiwan needs to make a choice -- 
namely, it is the correct path to lean toward the power of freedom 
and democracy, which will be conducive to Taiwan's interests as a 
whole." 
 
C) "Beijing No Long Conceals Its Abilities and Bides Its Time" 
 
Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in his column in the mass-circulation 
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 530,000] (2/2): 
 
"... The United States has been selling weapons to Taiwan for three 
decades, and there is nothing new in the arms sales package this 
time; all of the items were long-pending ones, and Washington had 
also notified Beijing about it in advance.  Unexpectedly, China's 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of National Defense, National 
People's Congress, and the Chinese People's Political Consultative 
Conference unanimously voiced strongly-worded protests and announced 
that they would suspend exchanges of visits [between the United 
States and China] for the time being and impose sanctions against 
the companies that sell weapons to Taiwan. ... 
 
"This phenomenon reflected the following new developments:  First, 
China's mounting public opinion and increasingly powerful national 
confidence have generated an impact on Beijing's foreign relations. 
Second, starting from the later period of the term of office of 
George W. Bush to the Obama administration, U.S.-China relations 
have reached an unprecedented new peak over the past six decades. 
China has particularly high expectations for Obama, thus its 
backlash is particularly strong.  They thought they have seen major 
changes in U.S.-China relations, so they are both irritated and 
frustrated to see that the bilateral relationship is back to square 
one.  China used to force itself to integrate into the international 
community and has been trying very hard to adapt itself to Western 
standards.  Today's China believes it is on an equal footing with 
the United States.  But the [U.S.] arms sales to Taiwan was like 
pouring cold water on Beijing, and the latter's expression of its 
anger was a way purely to placate the Chinese popular sentiments. 
 
"Another more important goal was to express Beijing's disappointment 
toward Ma Ying-jeou. ...  Washington had notified Beijing in advance 
[of its arms sales to Taipei] this time.  It was 'notifying' 
nominally, but in fact it could be also discussing, nearly 
tantamount to consultations.  Even though Beijing condemned [the 
move], U.S.-China relations have actually moved a step forward. 
Taiwan will be really stupid if it is still feeling good about 
itself." 
 
D) "A Storm Breaks out between the United States and China; Taiwan 
Must Take Precautions against a Possible Disaster" 
 
Dr. Cheng Tuan-yao from National Chengchi University's Institute of 
International Relations, opined in the pro-unification "United Daily 
News" [circulation: 400,000] (2/2): 
 
"The U.S. Obama administration announced recently that it will sell 
weapons worth US$6.4 billion to Taiwan.  Such a big move has 
immediately enraged Beijing.  Chinese officials have quickly 
proposed four tit-for-tat measures, ... and it does not rule out the 
possibility of more powerful, follow-on movements.  It appears that 
a storm in terms of the triangular relationship between Washington, 
Beijing and Taipei has suddenly emerged. ... 
 
"As a small country, Taiwan is facing a dilemma when sandwiched 
between two big powers; it relies on security support from the 
United States and is in need of China's economic interests.  Taipei 
is now negotiating the signing of an Economic Cooperation Framework 
Agreement with Beijing, and unavoidably, it is concerned whether the 
arms sales storm will affect the progress of cross-Strait economic 
and trade talks.  Also, the growing tension between Washington and 
Beijing will pose a challenge to Taipei's middle-of-the-road 
strategy. ...  Now the arms sales storm is causing disturbances to 
the rare [friendly triangular relationship between Washington, 
Beijing and Taipei.]  The United States intentionally wants to prove 
that Washington remains the one that steers the triangular 
relationship, while China is attempting to resist with all its might 
Washington's influence on Taipei.  Taipei, on the other hand, has to 
take precautions against a possible disaster by re-adjusting and 
pursuing a right position in the relationship." 
 
E) "Washington, Beijing Acting a Two-Man Show, and Taiwan Has to 
Shed Tears of Gratitude" 
 
Taiwan's former Ambassador to South Africa Loh I-cheng opined in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (2/2): 
 
"The United States is highly capable of handling its foreign 
relations in a way that it can pick the right moment and pay the 
minimum price in exchange for the greatest benefits for itself.  The 
weapons that Washington sold Taipei this time are worth NT$204.5 
billion, which is a very large figure for the ordinary Taiwan 
people.  But in fact, the only effective weapons are the 60 
Blackhawk helicopters, the C4ISR systems and the PAC-3 missiles. 
Washington was also ingenious in its timing.  The generous gift [of 
the arms sales] was announced when Ma Ying-jeou's plane was still in 
U.S. airspace after he concluded his trip to the inauguration 
ceremony of the president of Honduras -- perfect timing. ... 
 
"The United States had secretly discussed with mainland China the 
arms sales package this time.  U.S. National Security Advisor 
General James Jones said Washington had 'transparent consultations' 
with mainland China about arms sales to Taiwan, and the 'contents 
that will be announced or not announced will not surprise China.' 
It is thus obvious that the 'solemn protests' raised by Beijing were 
just tricks to be shown to the ordinary people in China.  The 
parties that offer things, including both Washington and Beijing, 
have substantive gains and look good, while the party which receives 
must still make a show of shedding tears of gratitude. ..." 
 
F) Problems Remain to Be Solved in Terms of 
Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations in the Wake of the [U.S.] Arms 
Sales [to Taiwan]" 
 
The KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 120,000] editorialized 
(2/2): 
 
"... It appears that U.S.-China relations have seen unprecedentedly 
good prospects since President Obama's visit to Beijing at the end 
of last year.  But the [U.S.] arms sales [to Taiwan] seemed to give 
the relations a sudden turn.  The first question [we] want to ask 
is:  Why did the United States want to sell [weapons to Taiwan]? 
The seemingly dignified answer is of course: Washington must 
maintain its commitment to Taiwan's security.  But in reality, [the 
answer is that] the United States hopes to continue maintaining its 
influence in Taiwan.  Washington maintaining its influence [in 
Taiwan] can be both good and bad for Beijing.  The downside is that 
the development of cross-Strait relations can never get rid of the 
'international factors.'  When Obama was in Beijing in November, 
2009, China originally thought that [both sides] had established the 
fundamental principles and that Washington would respect China's 
sovereignty and core interests.  Now it seems to be a different 
story.  Since Washington has sold Taiwan weapons, it is certain that 
Obama will meet with the Dalai Lama. 
 
"But judging from Beijing's perspective, there are merits in terms 
of the U.S. influence on Taiwan.  During the governance of the Chen 
Shui-bian administration, it was the United States which had 
restrained [Chen] and pulled him back before the cross-Strait 
situation went out of control.  It is also a widely known fact that 
Beijing is concerned about the direction of cross-Strait relations 
in the post-Ma era, and it is likely that it still needs the United 
States to stabilize the situation. ... 
 
"In the face of the rising China, the first point of clash lies in 
the Taiwan Strait.  Even though Washington does not want to see 
itself being dragged into the conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, it 
still cannot let go.  Judging from its own strategic interests, 
Washington also does not hope to see Taiwan being Finlandized 
gradually and thus lose its capability and self-initiative to defend 
itself, or being integrated into the sphere of influence of China. 
In light of this, selling weapons to Taiwan will help to pull tight 
its security link with the Taiwan government. ..." 
 
G) "Billions Later, Is Taiwan Any Safer?" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (2/2): 
 
"Though welcome, the US$6.4 billion US arms sale to Taiwan announced 
by Washington on Friday will not bring much in terms of Taiwan's 
ability to defend itself. All the items in the package, with the 
exception of the 60 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters, had been approved 
-- and then delayed -- by former US president George W. Bush's 
administration. In other words, since large parts of the package 
were first announced in 2001, Taiwan's military has been treading 
water, while China has sprinted ahead with the modernization of its 
military.  None of the items in the package will make a substantial 
difference. While the PAC-3 missile defense system can bolster the 
defense of certain key targets, it is not sufficient to deter an 
attack, especially as the sale is likely to result in a decision by 
the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to add short and medium-range 
missiles to the 1,500 it already aims at Taiwan and step up its 
missile program. 
 
"What is needed most, and what the US appears unlikely to provide 
anytime soon, is newer fighter aircraft like F-16C/Ds. With every 
day that passes, Taiwan's aging fleet lags further behind the PLA 
air force, which is developing 4.5 and fifth-generation aircraft 
that are far superior. As Taiwan's air force retires some of its 
Mirage and F-5s, among others, the balance of air power will only 
widen, both in quantitative and qualitative terms.  Nothing 
underscores the lack of punch in the arms release more than the fact 
that the 10 RTM-84L Harpoon missiles and two ATM-84L Harpoon 
missiles included in the package, which cost US$37 million, are for 
training purposes only. They are simply unarmed variants of the real 
thing -- RGM/AGM-84As.  At best, the arms sale was an expression of 
US commitment to the defense of Taiwan, as per the Taiwan Relations 
Act (TRA). In terms of symbolic value, the move is welcome. But it 
comes short of providing the types of weapon that are necessary to 
ensure Taiwan's ability to defend itself in line with the amplitude 
of the Chinese threat -- as stipulated in the TRA. It also comes in 
the wake of another announcement by Washington that it had 
downgraded China as an intelligence priority. ... 
 
"In the past, when China rattled its saber over US arms sales to 
Taiwan, it did so over weaponry that made a significant difference 
in the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. Now, however, after 
years of dithering in Washington, Beijing has become confident 
enough that it can throw a fit -- and make Washington pause -- over 
practically inconsequential weapons sales. This substantiates fears 
by some Washington sources that this could be the first and last 
arms sale to Taiwan under US President Barack Obama's 
administration. ...  If China can brew such a storm over what is an 
arms sale that was meant to please all sides and minimize the damage 
to Sino-US relations, then the chances of Taiwan getting the weapons 
it really needs look alarmingly slim." 
 
STANTON