VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUJA #0147/01 0391520
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081519Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0213
INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA

UNCLAS ABUJA 000147 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL PINR OVIP NI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MEEKS/WATT VISIT TO NIGERIA, FEBRUARY 
15-16, 2010 
 
¶1. (SBU) The U.S. Mission to Nigeria warmly welcomes the visit of 
CODEL Meeks/Watt to Nigeria to visit Lagos February 15 and 16. 
Embassy provides the following political and economic overview of 
the current situation in Nigeria. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
RELATIONSHIP STRESSED BY RECENT EVENTS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) During Nigeria's fifty years of independence, the strength 
of our bilateral relationship originated largely from the positive 
view that most Nigerians held of both the USG and the American 
people.  Nigerians remain broadly sensitive to their image among 
Americans, and many desire international approval and respect for 
their perceived role as a regional and continental power.  The 
current relationship has come under strain by the recent listing of 
Nigeria for aviation security purposes as a "country of  interest" 
after the attempted bombing of a U.S. aircraft by a Nigerian 
citizen.  Nigerian officials and many private citizens remain angry 
at the designation, calling it discriminatory and unfair.  The 
decision to put Nigeria on this list could also influence GON 
decisions on peacekeeping and on votes before the United Nations 
Security Council.  Political leaders have recently toned down their 
rhetoric and appear to understand our concerns over outside links 
with extremists.  Nearly all Nigerian Government (GON) leaders 
remain favorably disposed towards approval soon of a memorandum of 
understanding permitting the use of U.S. Federal Air Marshals on 
U.S. commercial flights to and from Nigeria. 
 
-------------------- 
DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENT 
-------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) President Yar'Adua, elected in 2007 and eligible to run 
for a second term in 2011, has been absent from Nigeria since 
November 23 while undergoing medical treatment in Saudi Arabia. 
Vice President Goodluck Jonathan has cautiously assumed some 
presidential duties in the meantime, avoiding the appearance of 
seeking the presidency prematurely.  Divisions between Northern and 
Southern politicians and competition among potential successors for 
the Vice Presidency have complicated decision-making. Political 
pressure from multiple quarters, including parts of the ruling 
party, is building on the Yar'Adua loyalists in the government to 
transfer formal presidential powers to the Vice President. 
 
¶4. (SBU) President Yar'Adua announced a "Seven Point Agenda" to 
enhance electricity generation, food security, job creation, road 
construction, land reform, education, and stability in the Niger 
Delta during his 2007 presidential campaign.  In his inaugural 
address, he acknowledged "flaws" in the electoral process and 
promised to redress them.  However, actions have fallen short of 
promises.  The Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) established by 
President Yar'Adua established in 2007 produced a comprehensive set 
of recommendations on electoral reform, but a GON paper recommended 
adoption of only a few of the recommendations, which have 
languished before the National Assembly.  The February 6 
gubernatorial election in the southeastern state of Anambra will 
present a key test of GON willingness and capability to conduct 
credible elections.  A U.S. and the U.K. assessment team met with 
various civil society groups and the Independent National Election 
Commission (INEC) to assess Nigeria's ability to hold credible 
national elections in 2011.  Election observers from the U.S. will 
be in Anambra State February 5-8 to watch a key gubernatorial 
election there that has become a test case for the Nigerians to 
conduct a credible election. 
 
------------------- 
NIGER DELTA AMNESTY 
------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Niger Delta largely enjoys a current lull in 
militancy.  By October 2009, the GON persuaded all major militant 
leaders to renounce violence and surrender arms in exchange for 
amnesty, government stipends, training opportunities, and pledges 
of greater development for the Delta.  Nigerian officials followed 
up the amnesty program with a series of consultations with Delta 
stakeholders, including ex- militants.  United Nations Development 
Program (UNDP) partners sent a letter to Minister of Defense and 
Amnesty Committee Chairperson Retired General Godwin Abbe in 
December 2009 offering to engage on the Niger Delta, but have yet 
to receive a reply.  Concerns exist that ex-militants may become 
impatient before the full implementation of rehabilitation programs 
occurs.  Allegedly speaking for the Movement for the Emancipation 
of the Niger Delta (MEND), self-identified spokesperson "Jomo 
 
 
Gbomo" announced January 30 the end of MEND's October 25, 2009 
cease-fire.  To date, security has improved considerably in most 
areas of the Delta, but ex-militants have staged protests in 
Bayelsa, Rivers, and Delta States over lack of progress on 
rehabilitation and reintegration. 
 
¶6. (SBU) During the past six months, the GON has undertaken a few 
modest steps against corruption.  In August 2009, for example, 
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi ordered 
the audit of Nigeria's 24 banks.  Two rounds of audits led to a 3.9 
billion-dollar bailout of eight troubled banks, replacement of top 
bankers, publication of a "name and shame" list of hundreds of bad 
debtors, and recovery to date of ten percent of the bad debt.  A 
retroactive ten-year term limit has also been placed on the sitting 
managing directors of all the banks.  In late October, a Nigerian 
judge convicted the former Nigerian Port Authority chairperson on 
various corruption charges and ordered his immediate imprisonment 
for up to eight years.  However, many perpetrators of corruption 
appear to possess little or no fear of punishment for their 
offenses. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The State Department designated Nigeria in 2009 as a 
"Category One" country for its efforts against trafficking in 
persons thanks to the work of the Nigerian Agency for the 
Prevention of Trafficking in Persons.  The Nigerian Drug and Law 
Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) agreed to accept assignment of a law 
enforcement advisor at its headquarters to provide technical 
assistance.  The Mission witnessed some progress on long-standing 
extradition cases. 
 
¶8. (SBU) On trade and development, Mission efforts have led to the 
elimination of import bans and decreases in tariffs on key 
products, decreasing the cost of doing business and reducing 
incentives for smuggling.  The Mission helped the GON solve 
regulatory and policy problems to allow increased electricity 
supplies, boost agricultural production, and help establish 
reliable regional and international markets, including use of the 
African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).  The Mission has also 
worked toward a healthy restructuring of the oil and gas sector, 
and toward improving aviation safety and security.  The Federal 
Aviation Administration (FAA) provided a two-year, GON-reimbursed 
technical assistance program on aviation safety and security in 
2008 and 2009 to the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) in 
preparation for a planned FAA flight safety audit in early 2010. 
The NCAA passed all elements of the program that would make them 
eligible for FAA Category One certification.  The GON hopes to 
obtain this certification by mid-2010. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Bilateral military cooperation remains strong.  The third 
African Partnership Station (APS) deployment in the last two years 
will occur February 10-17.  U.S. contractors installed Regional 
Maritime Awareness Capability (RMAC) radar sites in Lagos and Bonny 
Island, and the Mission is helping to stand up a military 
counter-terrorism unit.  Nigerian troops participated in 
peacekeeping operations in Darfur and Liberia with the help of 
Africa Contingency Operations Training and Assistance (ACOTA).  The 
GON remains interested in working closely with the Economic 
Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to promote regional 
security where needed. 
 
---------- 
CHALLENGES 
---------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Important legislation affecting the petroleum industry 
and oil and gas services remain under consideration by the National 
Assembly.  The proposed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and Local 
Content Bill (LCB) would respectively affect GON relationships with 
international oil and gas production and service companies 
operating in Nigeria.  Depending on their ultimate content, they 
could affect corporate profitability and the willingness of foreign 
companies to make new investments in Nigeria in the oil and gas 
sector.  Shell, Total and Agip recently announced a decision, 
pending GON approval, to sell their 45 percent minority interest in 
three onshore oil blocks to two Nigerian oil companies. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Lower oil prices and more "shut-in" oil production in the 
Niger Delta, beginning in late 2008, lowered GON revenues. 
Off-setting this trend, accession by militants to the GON's amnesty 
program allowed production to rebound from an estimated 1.6 million 
barrels per day in August 2009 to just under 2.0 million barrels 
per day in December 2009, with the prospect of as much as 2.4 
million barrels per day by mid-2010.  (Note: These figures exclude 
up to 500,000 barrels per day of condensates.  Nigeria's OPEC quota 
 
 
is currently 2.2 million barrels per day, excluding condensates. 
End Note).  The GON offset the decline in 2008 and 2009 revenue by 
drawing down the Excess Crude Account (a type of "rainy day" fund) 
to fund the National Integrated Power Project and distribute 
additional funds to national, state, and municipal governments. 
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to have declined 
from 6.4 percent during 2008 to something above 3.0 percent during 
2009, according to the latest IMF estimates.  Growth in 2010 is 
expected to be 6.0 percent, although this will depend on the 
continuation of the recent recovery of both international oil 
prices and domestic oil production.  Meanwhile, total foreign 
exchange reserves declined from 63 billion dollars in August 2008 
to 43 billion dollars at the end 2009, while the Excess Crude 
Account declined from 20 billion dollars in January 2009 to 6.5 
billion dollars at year's end.  The recovery of both oil prices and 
oil production should allow the GON to rebuild both foreign 
exchange reserves and the Excess Crude Account. 
 
¶12. (SBU) In the north, violent clashes erupted in four states in 
July 2009 after supporters of an Islamic extremist group, "Boko 
Haram" ("Western Education is Forbidden"), attacked police stations 
and other government facilities.  This provoked police and military 
sweeps in several states suspected of harboring "Boko Haram" 
members and sympathizers.  The group opposes western education 
models.  Nigeria's Islamic leaders strongly condemned the attacks. 
The Nigerian army restored order, but clashes between security 
forces and militants reportedly resulted in about 700 mostly 
militant deaths.  The leader of this group died while in police 
custody, and many "Boko Haram" members remain incarcerated or 
outside public view. 
 
¶13. (SBU) In mid-January, communal violence erupted again in Jos, 
in Plateau State, causing hundreds of deaths, considerable damage 
to property, and displacement of thousands of residents, mostly 
from Plateau State to neighboring states, but also, more recently, 
from neighboring states to Plateau State as Bauchi State announced 
its inability to guarantee the safety of Plateau citizens in Bauchi 
State.  The Vice President ordered deployment of military and 
police units to Jos to restore order and subsequently visited the 
affected areas.  Both Muslim and Christian leaders condemned the 
violence. 
 
¶14. (SBU) In December 2009, Nigerian national Umar Farouk 
Abdulmutallab allegedly attempted to detonate an explosive device 
on a U.S. commercial airliner shortly before landing at Detroit's 
international airport.  Nigeria's Muslim community roundly 
condemned Abdulmutallab's reported actions in unconditional and 
unequivocal terms.  Several Muslim organizations issued public 
statements condemning violence as "un-Islamic," emphasizing Islam 
as a religion of peace, and voicing concern that this incident has 
harmed Nigeria's image and interests. 
 
---------- 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) The December 25 attempted attack on a commercial airliner 
has complicated bilateral relations, but the USG continues to 
promote key priorities on electoral reform, the Niger Delta and 
regional security, anti-corruption, energy, investment, and the 
expansion of commercial aviation.  President Yar'Adua's prolonged 
absence from the country continues to affect domestic governance 
operations, investment, and relations with the international 
community.  A less than credible election in 2011 could seriously 
harm interests here.  Meanwhile, the USG should not lose sight of 
the long-term challenge of working with Nigerian partners on 
numerous shared interests, including deterring or treating HIV/AIDS 
(cumulative PEPFAR funding to date is about 1.5 billion dollars), 
addressing educational needs, and enhancing law enforcement and 
counter-terrorism capacities. 
 
¶16. (U) Embassy and ConGen Lagos collaborated on this telegram. 
SANDERS