VZCZCXRO3581
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHVB #0014/01 0081405
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081405Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9791
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000014 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS; CANDIDATES PRESENT 
DISTINCT PROFILES 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 000765 
     ¶B. ZAGREB 000006 
 
ZAGREB 00000014  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ivo Josipovic, candidate of the main 
opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), and independent 
candidate Milan Bandic, who is the mayor of Zagreb, are 
competing in the January 10 presidential run-off election. 
They share similar positions on key foreign policy issues, 
such as the importance of NATO and eventual EU membership, 
but present starkly different styles and images.  Recent 
tightening in the polls, however, suggests that Croatians are 
increasingly split on who they will choose.  We expect that 
the recent turmoil in the ruling Croatian Democratic Union 
(HDZ) may work to the detriment of Bandic because local media 
have speculated that Bandic might utilize the unpopular 
Sanader as an informal advisor.  Recent polls 
notwithstanding, we judge that Josipovic has the edge in 
becoming Croatia's third president. END SUMMARY 
 
COMMON POLITICAL HERITAGE; SIMILAR ON POLICY 
 
¶2. (U) Both Bandic and Josipovic began their political 
careers in the Zagreb branch of the SDP.  They both joined 
the Communist Party in the 1980s, but they only became active 
in politics after the communist party reformed itself into a 
modern social-democratic political movement in the early 
1990s.  (NOTE: Bandic is running as an independent candidate 
only because the SDP expelled him from the party once he 
decided to challenge the party's official candidate, 
Josipovic, in the election.)  True to their SDP heritage, 
both candidates have shown a liberal stance on most social 
issues--legalized abortion, gay-rights, and secular 
education.  However, the pious Bandic struggled at times on 
the campaign trail to articulate a clear position on more 
socially contentious issues.  They have both emphasized their 
support for Croatia's membership in NATO and Croatia's role 
in NATO-led operations.  Bandic has gone further, indicating 
that Croatia should consider increasing its presence in 
Afghanistan if the NATO alliance made a formal request for 
additional troops.  On Bosnia, Bandic has recently been the 
more strident of the two candidates in his statements of 
support for Bosnian Croats and the notion of a third entity. 
However, Josipovic's statements on the campaign trail, 
particularly in Herzegovina, have been fairly similar to 
Bandic's and represent a departure from the SDP's traditional 
lack of interest in Bosnian-Croat issues. 
 
STARKLY DIFFERENT STYLES; CAMPAIGN THEMES 
 
¶3. (SBU) Josipovic is a well-respected legal scholar who 
tends to come across as a dry-as-dust law professor rather 
than a politician with a common touch.  Although he can be 
very articulate in both Croatian and English, he is regarded 
by the public as boring and lacking in charisma.  Croatians 
tend to view him as a secular Zagreb sophisticate; not 
surprisingly he has trouble connecting with the country's 
less educated, non-urban population.  Josipovic is both an 
accomplished legal scholar and classical composer, but his 
political resume is undeniably thin, and this election 
represents his first real electoral campaign.  Josipovic 
actually left the SDP in the mid-1990s to pursue his legal 
career, but appeared on the SDP ticket in 2003 and 2007 
parliamentary races as a non-party candidate.  He did little 
formal campaigning during this period and only officially 
rejoined the SDP in 2008.  His presidential campaign has been 
almost exclusively focused on touting his anti-corruption 
credentials and "clean hands" reputation.  After the first 
round results, President Mesic provided some tepid support to 
Josipovic's campaign by characterizing Bandic as being poorly 
suited for the office of the president.  Nevertheless, Mesic 
fell short of formally endorsing Josipovic. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Bandic, on the other hand, is a strong and 
experienced campaigner, and while he, at times, can come 
across as unpolished, he has an exceptional ability to 
connect with everyday folk.  Unrelenting in his emphasis on 
his Roman Catholic faith and his resume of accomplishments as 
the four-term mayor of Zagreb, Bandic consistently highlights 
his humble roots and the long hours he puts in on the job for 
the betterment of Zagreb's working class.  His populist 
campaign seems to be winning the support of the center right 
and rural voters despite persistent allegations of corruption 
and cronyism within his city administration.  Under fire for 
an apparent lack of transparency in campaign finances, Bandic 
brushed off all hints of impropriety and noted that 
prosecutors have never brought any charges against him.  The 
Catholic Church has provided some support for Bandic's 
candidacy, most notably when Cardinal Bozanic favored the 
candidate with a two-hour meeting following the first round 
results.  However, in a prominent editorial the Church-based 
 
ZAGREB 00000014  002 OF 002 
 
 
newspaper, Glas Koncila, dismissed both candidates as being 
ill-suited to bring about the "positive changes" Croatia 
needed. 
 
POLLS TIGHTENING AS BANDIC SPENDING SURGES 
 
¶5. (U) Recent polls show a tightening race, with Josipovic 
consistently receiving about 55 percent of the vote in 
Croatia proper and Bandic now earning about 40 percent. 
Bandic's poll numbers have risen over the past ten days going 
from the low 30s to approximately 40 percent.  One poll this 
week indicates Josipovic's lead is less than 10 percentage 
points, with Josipovic likely to receive about 55 percent of 
the vote and Bandic about 45 percent.  Meanwhile, preliminary 
results for a media-monitoring study conducted by the 
democracy-oriented NGO (partially funded by post) indicate 
that Bandic has more than doubled what Josipovic spent on his 
campaign since the presidential contest began in November. 
Turnout was low in the first round race at 44 percent and is 
projected to increase slightly, up to 50 percent for the 
second round.  This moderate turnout should favor Josipovic, 
who can count on the SDP's party machinery to turn out its 
base, and several polls have indicated that Josipovic is 
getting the preponderance of the traditional left-of-center 
SDP voters. (reftel A) The polls, however, do not capture the 
votes of the diaspora, which are expected to go 
overwhelmingly to Bandic and, depending on turnout, will 
probably provide Bandic with 4 to 5 additional percentage 
points. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The recent turmoil in the HDZ, which 
resulted in former HDZ chairman and Prime Minister Ivo 
Sanader's expulsion form the party, may work to the detriment 
of the Bandic campaign. (reftel B) Sanader, who has 
experienced a dramatic loss of public support, has chosen to 
back Bandic and called on the HDZ to support him.  However, 
HDZ leaders have refused to go along.  Moreover, local media 
have reported that Bandic is likely to be a conduit for the 
return of Sanader's influence to politics.  Some media have 
speculated that Bandic would go so far as to make Sanader an 
advisor in the realm of foreign policy, an area where Bandic 
has little experience.  Despite the narrowing gap between the 
two candidates in the poll, we judge that a solid turnout of 
the SDP base for Josipovic and the liability that Sanader 
represents for Bandic is likely to give Josipovic the edge in 
becoming Croatia's third president.  END COMMENT 
WALKER