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DE RUEHTV #0137/01 0221247
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221247Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5071
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000137 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: KADIMA'S INTERNAL SQUABBLES CONTINUE 
 
REF: 09 TEL AVIV 02813 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  The Kadima party's leadership wrangling 
continued in mid-January, with little hope for near-term 
resolution.  Kadima members met on January 21 to discuss an 
effort by former Defense Minister and Kadima 
second-in-command Shaul Mofaz to move leadership primaries up 
to mid-2010.  Though the meeting did not conclude with any 
decisions, camps were clearly split between those supporting 
party Chairman Tzipi Livni's call to hold off on a primary 
and those agitating for a change.  Earlier this month, Mofaz 
led a rally of party activists who called on Livni to agree 
to advance the vote, and he ratcheted up his rhetorical 
campaign against Livni's leadership as well.  The problem in 
Kadima is not just with the party primary; as many as 17 
Knesset Members (MKs) are reported to be generally 
dissatisfied with the party and are looking for either new 
leadership or a new party altogether.  These MKs are being 
pursued by Livni and Mofaz, but also by Prime Minister 
Netanyahu, who sees this as a chance to either bring 
additional MKs to his party or coalition, or further weaken 
his chief competitor.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  On January 21 the party's House Committee met to 
discuss whether to move up Kadima's leadership primary, 
presently scheduled for November 2013.  The meeting was 
prompted by Mofaz, who is aggressively attempting to unseat 
Livni as chairman of the party.  No decisions were taken, 
however, because the meeting was unexpectedly cut short when 
committee head and Kadima MK Tzachi HaNegbi realized the 
supposedly private proceedings were being transcribed 
simultaneously on the Internet.  Nonetheless, Mofaz was able 
to lay out his request that Kadima's constitution be changed 
to require leadership primaries within 16 months following an 
election in which Kadima was not the head of the government. 
If instituted and applied immediately, that would require a 
primary vote by June 2010.  During the debate, MK Otniel 
Schneller called for primaries in July, while MK Avi Dichter, 
who is widely expected to run in the leadership primary, 
proposed a vote between June and October. Livni was not 
present at the debate, having earlier in public comments 
rejected the notion that primaries would be moved up.  She 
let her surrogates - primarily former MK and current Kadima 
Council chairman Haim Ramon - state the case opposing any 
changes. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The meeting followed a rally Mofaz held near his 
home on January 14 in which 250 party activists joined his 
call for a party leadership primary to take place within the 
next few months.  In addition to Mofaz, Kadima MKs Eli 
Aflalo, Robert Tibayev, Arieh Bibi, and Schneller attended 
the event.  Mofaz during the rally continued with his open 
attacks on Livni, faulting her for not being able to form a 
government following former Prime Minister Olmert's 
resignation in the fall of 2008, and for her decision to not 
join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government early 
last year.  Mofaz further has accused Livni of hiding behind 
the party constitution and bylaws, which give the chairman 
extensive control over the party.  Dichter, in an interview 
around the same time, also announced his support for 
primaries in 2010, though he most likely would complicate 
Mofaz's campaign, as his strong security credentials probably 
would take away votes from Mofaz.  Livni's aides dismissed 
the Mofaz rally as insignificant and stressed that Livni 
would be open to holding leadership primaries a year before 
the next scheduled election. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The party leadership meeting and Mofaz rally 
represent the latest turmoil in a party that has the largest 
number of seats in the Knesset, yet sits in the opposition 
and lacks a clear identity.  Running parallel to the 
leadership struggle is general dissatisfaction either with 
Livni's leadership, being in the opposition, or both among a 
number of Kadima MKs.  An aide to Mofaz told poloff that as 
many as 17 Kadima MKs are considering leaving the party for 
reasons ranging from ideology (i.e. a concern that Livni has 
pulled the party too far to the left) to a desire for a 
ministerial portfolio.  The aide would not name the members, 
but Knesset insiders say that in addition to the MKs who 
attended the Mofaz event, MKs Ze'ev Boim, Ruhama Avraham, 
Orit Zuaretz, Yulia Berkovich, Ronit Tirosh, Shai Hermesh, 
and Yaakov Edri are dissatisfied with the current state of 
the party.  These same insiders list MKs Ze'ev Bielski, 
Nachman Shai, Shlomo Molla, Yohanan Plesner, Yoel Hasson, and 
Tzachi HaNegbi as strong backers of a Livni-led Kadima. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The disaffected Kadima MKs are being pressed or 
courted from three sides.  Mofaz wants them to remain in the 
party for at least a few months so that he can work out a 
deal for early party primaries, which he expects to win. 
Mofaz's goal is to become prime minister - not just head of 
 
TEL AVIV 00000137  002 OF 002 
 
 
Kadima - and his best hope remains with leading the 
center-right party and its full slate of MKs.  For many of 
the same reasons, Kadima Chairman Livni is working to keep 
these wayward members in the party and on her side. 
According to Knesset staffers, Livni is relying on former MK 
and Deputy Prime Minister Ramon, who remains influential in 
Kadima politics, and HaNegbi to keep the party unified. 
Prime Minister Netanyahu represents the third source of 
pressure on Kadima rank-and-file. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Netanyahu, via political advisor Shalom Shlomo, 
reportedly has conducted negotiations with a number of Kadima 
MKs (reftel), offering specific positions as enticements. 
Netanyahu, naturally, is keen to peel off some Kadima members 
and add them to his coalition as insurance should senior 
coalition member Yisrael Beitenu leave the government at some 
point.  Many Israeli political observers also believe 
Netanyahu will need more centrist members of his coalition in 
the event that peace negotiations resume.  Netanyahu also 
probably views the efforts to lure Kadima MKs as helpful 
toward sowing further discord in that party, thus weakening 
the Likud's chief competitor. 
CUNNINGHAM