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OO RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHPW RUEHROV
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DE RUEHSM #0013/01 0140947
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 140947Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5043
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STOCKHOLM 000013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2020 
TAGS: PREL ECON KGHG SENV CH IR SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH FM BILDT ON AFGHAN DRUG PROBLEM, 
TURKEY-IRAN, COP-15 AND CHINA, AND EASTERN PARTNERSHIP 
 
REF: A. 09 STOCKHOLM 749 
     ¶B. 09 STOCKHOLM 739 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Matthew Barzun for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: A focus on "the drug issue" is essential for 
getting Afghanistan right, Swedish Foreign Minister Bildt 
told Ambassador January 12.  But the upcoming London 
Conference does not have the topic on the agenda and it is 
unclear what is supposed to be achieved at the meeting.  If 
the drug problem is not addressed, "then we will lose in 
Afghanistan," Bildt said.  On other topics, he noted: 
 
-- Turkish diplomacy with Iran is increasingly important, 
both because of their escrow proposal for the Tehran Research 
Reactor and, more generally, because of Ankara's ability to 
affect Iranian decision making. 
 
-- Chinese leaders are increasingly concerned over internal 
stability, which affected their decisions on recent prison 
sentences for activists and the execution of a British 
national.  These concerns may also have affected China's 
position at COP 15. 
 
-- On Bosnia, it will continue to be important to keep 
Bosnian leaders focused on the routine tasks and trade-offs 
of running the country and economic reform, and away from 
"matters of high principle" like Constitutional reform. 
 
-- The Spanish EU Presidency's ideas on Cuba are "peripheral 
and won't fly."  The Spaniards will need to manage a 
six-month transition period, but by the time of the Belgian 
Presidency in July, most issues will be resolved one way or 
another. 
 
-- Madrid is being helpful on the Eastern Partnership (EaP) 
and the European Investment Bank will soon announce a new 1.5 
billion Euro lending facility for EaP countries. 
 
End Summary. 
 
Afghanistan: Focus on Drugs 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In a January 12 meeting with Ambassador, Swedish 
Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said he thought the planning for 
the January 28 London Conference on Afghanistan was "up in 
the air" as regards what was supposed to be accomplished.  He 
repeated that Sweden had urged a small conference in Kabul 
first (Ref A), and then a larger international conference 
afterwards to drum up support for the priorities developed at 
Kabul, "but for reasons related to the general elections in 
the UK, we now have this sequence, which nobody really 
wanted." 
 
¶3. (C) Bildt also noted his strong concern with the absence 
of "the drug issue" on the agenda for the London conference. 
"We tend to focus on short-term military and security issues, 
and to some extent on governance, but on the very complex 
problem of drugs there is nothing."   What is required, he 
continued, is a multi-year focused strategy similar to what 
the USG had in place in Columbia, overseen by one of the 
largest U.S. missions in the world.  Bildt observed that 
there were more deaths in the drug war in Mexico over the 
last two years than there were combat fatalities in 
Afghanistan.  West African security is eroding because of the 
drug trade, and Iran is struggling with the largest number of 
drug addicts in the world -- roughly one million people.  And 
in Afghanistan itself, the amount of money being generated by 
drug traffickers allows the insurgents to pay their fighters 
more than Afghan soldiers earn.  Bildt continued that if 
issues related to drug trafficking and opium cultivation are 
not dealt with, "then we will lose in Afghanistan." 
 
Iran: Turkish Diplomacy Crucial, PRC Trade Up 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) On Iran, Bildt said he has seen the U.S. emphasis 
shift from broad-based sanctions to a "more realistic" 
approach focused on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. 
Referring to recent Congressional hearings, including 
testimony by Jim Dobbins (Note: given before the House 
Oversight Committee on December 15), he said he shares the 
analysis of U.S. experts that broader sanctions would have no 
effect, or negative effects -- though there might be some 
deterrent effect on other nations, he admitted (Ref B). 
 
¶5. (C) On the Tehran Research Reactor proposal, he noted that 
the Turks were continuing their talks with the Iranians on 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000013  002 OF 003 
 
 
the possibility of Iranian LEU being held in escrow by 
Turkey.  During his December 7 White House visit, Prime 
Minister Erdogan was quite pleased with his discussions on 
Iran, Bildt reported.  "Turkey is a key actor, the most 
significant actor we have when it comes to influencing 
domestic decisions in Iran," he continued, adding that 
outreach to India, Brazil, and South Africa could also be 
instrumental in affecting Iranian decision making.  The 
Russians, he assessed, had little influence in Tehran. 
Turning to trade with Iran, Bildt claimed that EU trade was 
down while Chinese trade was growing quickly.  "China is 
taking over the EU role, but keeping a much lower profile." 
 
COP-15: Stability Concerns Affecting China's Stance? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶6. (C) Bildt stated he was glad he had not been in Copenhagen 
during the final stages of COP-15.  "We failed to read the 
Chinese properly, and we had hoped they would have been 
somewhat more prepared to bring something to the table.  We 
failed to see how important international monitoring was to 
you, and how much that would run against Chinese 
sovereignty."  Noting that China is on record to achieve 8 
percent GDP growth this year, Bildt said Beijing had 
unleashed "the mother of all stimulus packages," indicating 
the high level of leadership concern over stability.  This 
concern also motivated the eleven-year prison sentence for 
Liu Xiaobo and the recent execution of British national Akmal 
Shaikh, and may well have been behind Chinese behavior at 
COP-15 too.   Bildt said he sees nervous leaders in Beijing 
now, no longer exhibiting the self-confidence of the past. 
He noted there had been lots of criticism inside China asking 
why the PRC should sacrifice its economic growth when it had 
not created the carbon problem in the first place. 
 
Bosnia: Keep 'Em Churning on Boring Tasks 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) On the Balkans, Bildt said the Spanish EU Presidency 
was planning to invite Bosnian leaders to a meeting in 
Madrid, but that he shared the skeptical view of U.S. 
officials on the utility of such.  Bildt said progress on 
visa liberalization issues would be very helpful at this 
time, but otherwise "our instruments are fairly limited." 
The "long-term carrot" would be the prospect of a decent 
life, more jobs, electricity, and roads, but "we have no real 
sticks" to employ with the Bosnians.  In some ways, he 
continued, it is best to force them to work together on 
boring, routine tasks such as budgets and personnel issues, 
and keep them away from matters of "high principle" such as 
constitutional arrangements. 
 
Spanish EU Presidency and Post-Lisbon Arrangements 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶8. (C) On goals of the Spanish EU Presidency, Bildt said 
Madrid will focus on economic policy and institutional 
implementation.  The Spanish also have "a few ideas on Cuba, 
which are peripheral and won't fly."  On the Middle East, FM 
Moratinos can be quite helpful and should be brought in, 
Bildt said.  As for post-Lisbon institutional arrangements, 
Bildt cautioned that it would be at least six months before 
personnel issues were resolved.  The Spanish EU Presidency 
will have to manage this period of transition, but by the 
time the Belgian Presidency rolls around in July, most 
questions will be answered (and even if some thinking on 
topics like venues are unresolved, at least it will be clear 
the meeting will be in Brussels!). 
 
Eastern Partnership 
------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Spanish plans for the Eastern Partnership look good, 
commencing with a January 27 meeting in Madrid, Bildt said. 
Many observers had criticized the paltry 600 million Euros of 
EU funds dedicated to the Eastern Partnership, he continued, 
but in December the European Investment Bank (EIB) decided to 
expand further its lending facilities, making an additional 
1.5 billion Euros available in matching funds.  In a separate 
conversation with PolCouns, Johan Frisell of the MFA's 
Eastern European Division said that this not-yet formal 
decision will be voted on by the EIB Board and formally 
approved in coming weeks, but that just before Christmas all 
the EIB Governors had signed on.  While the EIB has had a 
lending facility for small- and medium-sized enterprises in 
place for half a year, these additional funds will have no 
restrictions regarding scale of enterprise or sectors.  There 
will also be an opportunity for Russia to apply for loans 
under the scheme, Frisell said. 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000013  003 OF 003 
 
 
BARZUN