VZCZCXRO9735
OO RUEHAO RUEHCD RUEHHO RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS
DE RUEHSG #0029/01 0272023
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 272023Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0596
INFO WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTIAGO 000029 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC, INR/B, WHA/EPSC 
PENTAGON FOR OSD--MLENIHAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: Chile's New Political Landscape 
 
REF: 09 SANTIAGO 1234 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The election of Sebastian Pinera as the next 
Chilean president turns Chilean politics on its head.  The 
political entities that were created before and during the 
transition from dictatorship to democracy--the center-left 
Concertacion coalition and the center-right Alianza--have had the 
same roles (Concertacion governing, Alianza opposing), and many of 
the same faces, for twenty years.  Now both political groups are 
struggling to realign their parties, leadership, and alliances 
given voters' shifting preferences.   End Summary. 
 
 
 
The Left in Disarray:  Party Leaders Resign... 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) A week after their presidential defeat, Chile's 
center-left is trying to figure out what went wrong, who was to 
blame, and how to move forward.  The Concertacion's two largest 
political parties, the Socialists and the Christian Democrats, are 
the targets of most of the finger pointing.  Marco 
Enriquez-Ominami, Jorge Arrate, and Alejandro Navarro are all 
former Socialists who left the party and ran presidential campaigns 
which, to a greater or lesser degree, detracted from the 
Concertacion presidential bid.  Some blame the exclusionary 
leadership style of Socialist party president Camilo Escalona for 
encouraging these defections.  Political insiders are also raising 
questions about the future of the Christian Democrat party.  Once 
the largest and most powerful party in Chile, this centrist party 
has lost much of its influence and many of its congressional seats 
in recent years. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In reaction to Concertacion candidate Eduardo Frei's poor 
showing in the first round election on December 13 and his final 
defeat in the runoff election on January 17, the leaders of all 
four Concertacion parties have resigned (or offered to) in the last 
month.  The presidents of the two smallest parties, the Party for 
Democracy (PPD) and Radical Social Democrats (PRSD) were the first 
to do so, stepping down on December 30 in reaction to Frei's poor 
performance in the first round election.   Socialist party 
president Camilo Escalona, who remained at the helm despite many 
calls to resign following the disappointing first round election 
results, finally resigned on January 23, along with the rest of the 
Socialist party leadership.  Christian Democrat president Juan 
Carlos Latorre offered his resignation on January 23, though his 
party's national council rejected his resignation. 
 
 
 
...While Shifting Party Dynamics Open Possibilities for New 
Parties, Movements, and Leaders... 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Many progressives are talking about the need to 
"re-found" the Chilean center-left coalition.  There are many 
theories about what form a new Chilean left could take, including: 
 
--The creation of a more progressive political movement uniting 
Enriquez-Ominami's supporters with the two smaller Concertacion 
parties, the Party for Democracy (PPD) and Radical Social Democrats 
(PRSD), and perhaps even the Communists. 
 
--The creation of a "secular left" to include the Socialists, Party 
for Democracy, Radical Social Democrats and possibly other elements 
on the left, but without the religiously-based Christian Democrats. 
 
--A smaller Christian Democrat party, that may be excluded from 
new, more progressive groupings and could even find common cause 
with the conservative Alianza coalition at times. 
 
--A split in the Socialist party, with those loyal to Camilo 
Escalona heading up one camp and those who support Ricardo Lagos 
leading another. 
 
SANTIAGO 00000029  002 OF 003 
 
 
--"Re-founding" the big umbrella center-left movement, but with a 
renewal process that will open up leadership positions to the next 
generation of center-left politicians and codify open primaries to 
select presidential candidates. 
 
 
 
...and the Smallest Concertacion Party Makes and Quickly Aborts a 
Pact with Alianza 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Meanwhile, on January 21, the leadership of two small 
parties with roots in Chile's center-left formed a surprising pact 
with the Alianza coalition that left Concertacionistas dumbfounded. 
Neither the Alianza nor the Concertacion coalition had a majority 
in the 120-member Chamber of Deputies, but the Alianza had a 
plurality--58 seats to the Concertacion's 54 (reftel). 
Nonetheless, many of the remaining eight deputies had ties to the 
left, and so were expected to back the Concertacion much of the 
time, including in the designation of parlamentary leadership.  In 
the surprising agreement -- which was later aborted --  the 
smallest party in the Concertacion, the Radical Social Democrats 
(PRSD), would have shared power over the Chamber with the Alianza 
and another small party, the Independent Regional Party (PRI).  The 
agreement would have guaranteed the Alianza the right to lead the 
Chamber of Deputies for three out of the next four years (two years 
for the hard-right UDI party and one year for the center-right RN 
party), while the PRI, a small, centrist party made up of defectors 
from the Christian Democrats, would lead the Chamber for one year. 
In return, a PRSD deputy would have served as vice president for 
three of the next four years. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Progressive leaders, including many members of the PRSD 
party, were shocked by the deal.  Christian Democrat deputy Pablo 
Lorenzini described the deal as "treachery" and called for 
President Bachelet to immediately eject the PRSD from the 
Concertacion.  The vice president of the Party for Democracy 
derided the action as "collaborationism with the right" and said 
that it signaled that the PRSD had lost its ethical footing.  The 
negative reaction within the PRSD was just as strong and, just 
eight hours after the deal was announced, it was aborted and the 
president of the PRSD, Fernando Meza resigned.  Meza had led the 
party for just 23 days.  Jose Antonio Gomez, Meza's predecessor, 
re-assumed the presidency.  (Comment:  Although the PRI also has 
its roots in the Concertacion, their participation in the agreement 
was less surprising and drew fewer comments.  PRI politicians had 
already signaled their political independence by leaving the 
Concertacion, and are often regarded as motivated more by their 
individual political careers than by allegiance to a political 
ideology.  At this time, it is not clear if the Alianza/PRI 
agreement without the PRSD has enough votes to secure the 
leadership positions, although there are several independents who 
might support the agreement.  End Comment.) 
 
 
 
Who Will Lead the Left? 
 
------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) There is also likely to be a battle over who will be "the 
face of the new opposition left," with President Bachelet and 
former president Ricardo Lagos likely contenders.  In a speech 
delivered immediately after Frei's concession speech -- and from 
the same podium --  Lagos defended the Concertacion's achievements, 
called for the left to open its leadership positions up to younger 
politicians, and then declared that he was "available to help 
construct a new Chile."  After being criticized for what one 
commentator termed "excessive protagonism," Lagos backed away from 
his speech and said that his intentions were never to assert his 
leadership over the Concertacion, but many remain unconvinced. 
Meanwhile, President Bachelet has been more circumspect about her 
future plans, but many believe that she will retain a large role in 
Chile's center-left and is likely to run for president in 2014. 
 
SANTIAGO 00000029  003 OF 003 
 
 
On the Right, Even the Winners Face Possible Party Fractures 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
-------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Despite their electoral success, the right faces 
political fractures as well, conservative analyst Jose Miguel 
Izquierdo told Poloffs January 21.  Pinera successfully moved 
Alianza further to the center, which was critical in winning the 
election, but this creates an existential crisis for the staunchly 
conservative Democratic Union Party (UDI).  The UDI is, by some 
measures, the country's largest political party, controlling a full 
third of seats in Congress, more than any other party.  Some 
politicians--such as Jose Antonio Kast, Rodrigo Alvarez, and Felipe 
Ward--still cling to the very conservative Catholic vision of UDI 
founder Jaime Guzman.  Nonetheless, Izquierdo argues that the 
majority of the party has become more centrist, pragmatic, and 
secular, accepting Pinera's more moderate positions on civil unions 
for homosexual couples and the "day after" contraceptive pill, 
which are rejected by UDI traditionalists.  It is unclear how 
Chile's most conservative political leaders will react to their 
party evolving away from its founder's ideals and towards 
pragmatism and political moderation. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Another large challenge for the center-right will be 
staffing government positions and then, of course, implementing its 
agenda.  Maintaining balance between the various elements of his 
coalition and (possibly) retaining some experienced second-tier 
officials from the current government could create tensions for 
Pinera.  Defining policy priorities and the inevitable compromises 
that are part of governing could be another source of tension. 
Part of the center-right's success in this election was its 
impressive unity behind Pinera, but that could be tested as it 
moves on to governing. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Comment:  Chilean politics, and especially the 
Concertacion, has often been described in recent years as stale, 
boring, and inflexible.  Despite frequent public conversations 
about how to renew and refresh the political system, include 
younger leaders in prominent roles, encourage young people to vote, 
and battle small-scale corruption, the political system seemed to 
be frozen in place.  Pinera's election has shattered this calcified 
system.  Change is coming, though what form it will take is not yet 
clear.  End Comment. 
URBAN