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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTIAGO 000021 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: Sunday's Chilean Presidential Election: Pinera Appears 
Poised to Win, though Lead May be Shrinking 
 
REF: A) 09 SANTIAGO 755; B) 09 SANTIAGO 899; C) 09 SANTIAGO 1208 
D) 09 SANTIAGO 947; E) SANTIAGO 7 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Opposition candidate Sebastian Pinera leads 
government candidate Eduardo Frei by 2-6 points just days before 
the January 17 presidential runoff election.  Although the most 
recent (and only nationwide) poll shows the two in a statistical 
dead heat, Pinera and his campaign exude confidence while the Frei 
campaign is looking anxious.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Polls Shows Pinera In the Lead, But is Frei Closing the Gap? 
 
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---------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U)  Polls released since the first round presidential 
election, held on December 13, have consistently shown Pinera 
ahead, although the most recent--and only nationwide--poll suggests 
that Frei has cut that lead to within striking distance.   Just 
days before the presidential run-off scheduled for January 17, a 
poll released January 13 shows conservative opposition candidate 
Sebastian Pinera (Ref A) ahead of governing Concertacion coalition 
candidate Eduardo Frei (Ref B) by less than 2 points.  The 
difference is well within the 3 point margin of error of the 
nation-wide poll.  Issued by left-leaning pollster Marta Lagos' 
firm MORI, the poll includes rural voters, who tend to favor Frei, 
and is based on face-to-face interviews, considered more reliable 
than telephone polling.   However, other polls, conducted by 
different polling firms and released on December 18, December 19, 
and January 10, all showed Pinera with a sizeable 5 to 6 point 
lead.  These earlier polls were conducted only in major cities and 
were done by phone--both measures which tend to favor Pinera. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U) The MORI poll shows that Frei has managed to substantially 
close the gap since his poor showing in the December 13 first-round 
elections, where he garnered only 29.6 percent to Pinera's 44 
percent (Ref C).  However, most observers -- and Pinera advisors -- 
believe that he has the votes to win (Ref D) even as this latest 
poll data shows the candidates heading into a statistical 
dead-heat.  Other aspects of the poll point to a Pinera victory as 
well.  When asked who they thought would win the January 17 
election, 51 percent of voters said they thought Pinera would win, 
while only 31 percent said it would go for Frei.  Polls have shown 
all year long that Chileans believe Pinera is most likely to be 
their next president, and many Frei supporters grudgingly 
acknowledge that this election may usher in the first conservative 
government in Chile since the 1989 transition to democracy.  Press 
reports that the Concertacion is making contingency plans for a 
possible defeat add to the sense that the Concertacion era may be 
ending. 
 
 
 
Marco Enriquez -Ominami Supports "'the 29 Percent Candidate" 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
------------------ 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U) After a month of rumors and endless speculation in the 
blogosphere, former independent progressive presidential candidate 
Marco Enriquez-Ominami, who came in third in December's first-round 
election with 20 percent, publicly backed Eduardo Frei on January 
¶13.  However, he did so in the weakest possible terms. 
Enriquez-Ominami did not even mention Frei by name and instead 
emphasized Frei's poor showing in the first round, saying "I will 
vote for the candidate who received 29 percent of the vote."  At 
the same time, Enriquez-Ominami forcefully criticized the 
conservatives and their ties to the Pinochet-era, stating that "An 
abyss separates us from the candidacy of the right (Pinera).  They 
filled our country with grief and were the accomplices of those who 
assassinated my father."  (Note:  Enriquez-Ominami's father Miguel 
Enriquez, who founded the Leftist Revolutionary Movement, MIR, was 
killed by dictatorship security forces in 1976.  End note.) 
 
SANTIAGO 00000021  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5.  (U) While many prominent Enriquez-Ominami supporters have come 
out individually in favor of Frei -- including Enriquez-Ominami's 
adoptive father Senator Carlos Ominami -- others have endorsed 
Pinera.  Enriquez-Ominami's own endorsement was strictly personal 
and an explicit vote against the right, rather than a vote for 
Frei.  His message to those who voted for him in December was, "You 
are the only judges of your conscience and your vote." 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) Political analysts argue that Enriquez-Ominami's begrudging 
endorsement is an attempt to shield him from being blamed for a 
Frei loss -- especially in the eyes of loyal Concertacion voters -- 
while situating him as the progressive opposition figure against a 
conservative Pinera government.  This would place him in a position 
to run again for president in 2013.  (Note:  Pundits are already 
speculating that current President Michelle Bachelet, who is 
leaving office with approval ratings of a never-before-seen 81 
percent, will be the center-left candidate in 2013.  End note). 
Enriquez-Ominami also recently announced the founding of a new 
political party (Ref E), something that will require some time -- 
and citizen signatures -- to get off the ground. 
 
 
 
Pinera Finalized an Error-Free Campaign, Frei's Still Lackluster 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Frei and Pinera finalized their campaigns on January 14, 
the final day to hold electoral activities before the January 17 
presidential run-off election.  Frei chose to hold his campaign 
closure in a poor neighborhood in the Santiago metropolitan region 
and appeal to traditional Concertacion voters.  Pinera headed to 
the southern city of Concepcion in a last bid to pick up 
Enriquez-Ominami voters.  (Note: Enriquez-Ominami's famous 
revolutionary father, Miguel Enriquez, was a native son of 
Concepcion.  End note.)  Most analysts characterize the Pinera 
campaign, including the candidate's performance in the last 
televised debate on January 11, as error-free.  Frei's campaign 
needed to generate a new buzz during the run-up to the second 
round.  Despite adding key up-and-coming younger politicians to his 
campaign front-line and performing reasonably well in the debate, 
his campaign is characterized as not able to produce the crucial 
"knock-out" performance. 
 
 
 
Spoiled Ballets and Abstentions Could Be Key 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In December's first-round, 3.45 percent of voters either 
spoiled their ballot or left it blank.  Nearly 13 percent of voters 
abstained, even though voting is mandatory.  In the MORI poll 
released January 13, seven percent of voters said they planned to 
spoil their ballot.  Low turnout and protest votes will help 
Pinera, who had a large head start after the first round and 
therefore needs to add far fewer additional votes to cross the 50 
percent threshold.  The sense of triumph exuded by the Pinera camp 
may also discourage anti-Pinera voters from turning out to vote. 
On the other hand, as political analysts point out, now that the 
vote is looking closer, many voters that expected to abstain or 
issue a protest vote -- or Concertacion supporters that assumed 
Pinera would win no matter what -- may show up and mark a 
preference because they would feel that their vote could really 
matter in such a close election.  For this reason, President 
Bachelet explicitly endorsed Frei on January 14 and called for 
Chileans to not spoil their ballot or leave it blank. 
 
 
 
Comment: 
 
------------ 
 
SANTIAGO 00000021  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) With the election just days away, the Pinera campaign is 
exuding confidence while the Frei campaign looks anxious.  It is 
possible that Frei could win, but would be a big surprise for most 
election observers.  Currently, speculation is less on who will win 
than Pinera's likely victory margin.  Pinera campaign advisors 
predict he will gain a healthy margin of victory of at least three 
to four percentage points.  A tight winning margin for Pinera, 
particularly if the number of spoiled ballots and abstentions is 
high, could be seen as reducing his mandate, but even so a 
center-right victory after 20 years of Concertacion presidencies 
would be a landmark event in Chile.  End Comment. 
SIMONS