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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251257Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1735
INFO RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 4311
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000075 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/RSA - RYAN BOWLES 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL SP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON'S 
JANUARY 27-28 VISIT TO SPAIN 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) Embassy Madrid welcomes your visit for EU 
consultations on Africa being hosted by Spain.  The GOS seeks 
to strengthen EU (and GOS) ties with the USG during its 
presidency.  U.S.-Spain relations are strong and based on 
shared global interests, including our association in NATO, 
the fight against terrorism, and growing economic ties. 
Spaniards are enthusiastic about President Obama, and 
President Zapatero's desire for closer bilateral relations 
and enhanced engagement is reflected in GOS stances on 
Afghanistan and Guantanamo.  Africa has become increasingly 
important to the GOS in recent years, and your interlocutors 
will be eager to meet with you. 
 
Bilateral Relations 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) We value Spanish cooperation on security issues and in 
the fights against terrorism and narcotics.  Spain is a 
strong bilateral defense partner, despite differences in the 
past.  Spain operates a Provincial Reconstruction Team in 
Afghanistan with about 1,000 troops participating in ISAF. 
Zapatero's enthusiasm for President Obama and his desire for 
closer bilateral relations have resulted in GOS willingness 
to send 511 more troops to Afghanistan, pending legislative 
approval, and to take five Guantanamo detainees.  In both 
cases, Zapatero has faced public criticism that he has 
subordinated Spain's interest to President Obama's.  Spain 
also allows us the use of two military bases, Rota and Moron, 
that are crucial transit points between the U.S. and 
Afghanistan and Iraq.  Counter-terrorism and law enforcement 
cooperation is strong, and business ties are increasing. 
 
Political Context 
----------------- 
 
¶3. (U) President Zapatero won re-election to a second term in 
¶2008.  His center-left Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) 
is seven seats shy of a Congressional majority and fared 
poorly in regional and European Parliament elections in 2009. 
 Zapatero's popularity and credibility have suffered because 
of the long recession and high unemployment, his initial 
unwillingness to acknowledge the seriousness of the economic 
situation, and his continued claims that things will get 
better soon.  Recent polls suggest the main opposition party 
-- the Popular Party or PP -- would win an election held 
today. 
 
Economic Context 
---------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Spain grew much faster than the EU average over the 15 
years through 2007 and now has the world's 9th largest 
economy.  The rapid growth was driven by a housing boom that 
ended in 2007, after which the world economic crisis 
aggravated the economy's woes.  Spain has been in recession 
for almost two years.  The economy is expected to continue 
contracting until later in 2010, which would make it the last 
large economy to begin to recover, and the eventual recovery 
is expected to be sluggish.  Unemployment, now over 19%, is 
expected to pass 20% this year.  The GOS has responded with a 
major fiscal stimulus.  This has boosted the budget deficit 
to around 10% of GDP, and the GOS will have to limit spending 
significantly between now and 2013 to meet EU deficit 
requirements.  Zapatero's government is working to reorient 
Spain's economy towards more sustainable sectors, with 
renewable energy a key priority.  Spain, the 10th largest 
foreign investor in the U.S., is especially active in wind 
and solar power, banking, and road construction.  The U.S. is 
also a major investor in Spain. 
 
EU Presidency 
------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Spain's presidency of the Council of the EU gives 
Zapatero an opportunity to emphasize an international role to 
counter the negative domestic economic situation.  He seeks 
to use the presidency to show that he is taking a leading 
international role in responding to the economic crisis; this 
ties in with his argument that the crisis is an international 
problem for which his government should not be held 
responsible.  The GOS has been stung by foreign press 
criticism (in the Economist, Financial Times, and New York 
Times) of Spain's intentions for its presidency.  At his 
January 8 press conference with Van Rompuy and Barroso to 
mark the start of Spain's presidency, Zapatero had to argue 
 
MADRID 00000075  002 OF 002 
 
 
that Spain's economic difficulties did not disqualify it from 
helping lead EU economic recovery efforts. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The need to adjust to the new roles of President Van 
Rompuy and High Representative Ashton will be both a major 
focus of the Spanish presidency and a factor that will reduce 
the prominence of Spain's role from what it might have been. 
Initial GOS aspirations to use the presidency to address a 
wide range of issues seem to be giving way to a greater focus 
on key issues.  Zapatero and his officials have repeatedly 
cited strengthening transatlantic relations as a key aim of 
Spain's presidency.  For domestic political reasons, they 
intensely want a US-EU summit, and the lack of a Presidential 
visit would be seen as a major failure of Zapatero and a sign 
of USG disinterest. 
 
Africa 
------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Unlike North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has not 
traditionally been a Spanish priority, but that is changing 
thanks to terrorism, illegal immigration, and narcotics 
trafficking.  Zapatero promised at the beginning of his 
second term to make sub-Saharan Africa a top priority. 
Spain's Plan Africa for 2009-2012 provides for increased 
diplomatic and development assistance in North and 
sub-Saharan Africa.  Spain has been increasing its presence 
in the region with new embassies and new development offices. 
 The still unresolved November 2009 kidnapping in Mauritania 
by AQIM of three Spanish NGO aid workers has garnered wide 
attention here and been a vivid reminder of the threat from 
AQIM. 
 
¶8. (SBU) In 2006 the maritime flow of illegal immigrants 
headed to Spain rose dramatically, with the Canary Islands 
being a principal destination.  A sustained law enforcement 
response has reduced the flow.  Members of the National 
Police and Civil Guard are engaged in security assistance and 
liaison programs with several countries in Africa (Morocco, 
Cape Verde, Senegal, and Mauritania).  Part of Spain's 
increased diplomatic engagement in West Africa is designed to 
safeguard repatriation arrangements for illegal immigrants. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Spain remains a principal entry, transshipment, and 
consumption zone for the large quantities of South American 
cocaine and Moroccan cannabis destined for European consumer 
markets, and is also a major source and transit location for 
drug proceeds returning to South and Central America.  West 
African traffickers play an increasingly important role in 
this trade. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Somali piracy has been a major issue for the 
Spanish, with two Spanish boats taken and ransomed in 2008 
and 2009.  The issue has caused much embarrassment to the GOS 
because of its perceived powerlessness in the face of the 
pirates.  The Spanish have played a prominent role in 
Operation Althea and have offered to lead an EU CSDP training 
mission for Somali security forces. 
 
Personal Security 
----------------- 
 
¶11. (U) In general, Spain is safe.  However, Madrid and other 
large cities attract a large number of criminals and 
pickpockets, and frequent crimes of opportunity against the 
unwary do occur.  It is best to carry only essential items, 
including a photocopy of your passport's photo page. 
Visitors can protect themselves against crime by being 
street-smart, alert, and aware of their surroundings. 
Travelers are encouraged to review the most recent Worldwide 
Caution issues by the Department of State.  As the Department 
of State continues to develop information on any potential 
security threats to Americans overseas, it shares credible 
threat information through its Consular Information Program, 
available on the Internet at http://travel/state.gov. 
Additional information regarding safety and security in Spain 
is available on the U.S. Department of State's website 
(www.embusa.es). 
SOLOMONT