VZCZCXRO0916
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHKV #0072/01 0181753
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181753Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9147
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000072 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FIRST ROUND: YANUKOVYCH 
AHEAD BY TEN POINTS; OBSERVERS REPORT FREE AND FAIR 
 
KYIV 00000072  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych has held on to 
his ten point lead over PM Yuliya Tymoshenko with almost 99% 
of votes counted in the January 17 presidential election. 
Observers have called the election generally free and fair. 
The OSCE ODIHR mission called the election "high quality," 
Ukrainian NGO the Committee of Voters of Ukraine said there 
is no reason to question the accuracy of the results, and 
ENEMO observers said it was a "significant improvement over 
2004."  Front runners Yanukovych and Tymoshenko will face off 
in a second round match-up on February 7.  Tymoshenko has 
publicly called on the voters of other "democratic" 
candidates to back her in the second round, but a number of 
the candidates themselves have announced they will not 
formally support her.  Yanukovych asserted that his ten point 
lead over Tymoshenko will assure him of a second round 
victory.  Privately some campaign advisors admit that the 
results are closer than they expected and that the second 
round will be a "real campaign." End Summary. 
 
 
YANUKOVYCH UP BY TEN 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  With 98.99% of the vote counted the Central Election 
Commission (CEC) is reporting the following results: 
 
Viktor Yanukovych 35.39% 
Yuliya Tymoshenko 25.01 
Serhiy Tihipko    13.01 
Arseniy Yatsenyuk 6.96 
Viktor Yushchenko 5.48 
Petro Symonenko   3.55 
Volodymyr Lytvyn  2.34 
Oleh Tyahnybok    1.43 
Against All Candidates  2.2 
 
The remaining ten candidates received less than one percent. 
No candidate was able to garner more than 50 percent of the 
vote, so a second round election will be held between 
Yanukovych and Tymoshenko on February 7.  Voter turnout was 
66.7 percent.  The CEC announced January 18 that they have 
received no formal complaints from any presidential 
candidates over the conduct of the election. 
 
 
OBSERVERS: ELECTION WELL RUN, FREE AND FAIR 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U)  International and domestic observers reported a 
generally well run election that meets international 
standards.  The OSCE ODIHR preliminary report calls the 
elections "high quality" and that they "met most OSCE and 
Council of Europe commitments."  ODIHR called election day 
"efficient and orderly," but noted that Ukraine needs to 
improve the quality of its national voter registry and 
clarify the regulations on home voting prior to the February 
7 runoff.  The European Network of Election Monitoring 
Organizations (ENEMO) observation mission, funded by USAID 
through the National Democratic Institute, said that the 
election was a "significant improvement over 2004" and that 
election violations were "isolated."  ENEMO highlighted 
widespread "procedural and organizational problems" with 
voter lists and "at home" voting. 
 
¶4. (U)  The International Republican Institute (IRI) said 
that the election "broadly met international standards" and 
is a "positive step forward in building democratic 
institutions in Ukraine."  IRI also criticized the quality of 
voter lists generated by the national voter registry and the 
lack of clear instructions to election precincts on how to 
amend lists on election day.  The Committee of Voters of 
Ukraine (CVU), the country's largest election NGO, noted that 
while there were some procedural problems, specifically 
confusion over the regulations for home voting and making 
changes to the voter rolls on election day, they observed 
nothing that would call in to question the official results. 
 
 
CANDIDATES SPEAK OUT, NEXT STEPS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Prime Minister Tymoshenko, after the announcement 
of exit polls, welcomed the election results and assured her 
supporters that she was well positioned for a second round 
victory.  She called on the supporters of "fellow democratic 
candidates" Serhiy Tihipko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, President 
Viktor Yushchenko and Anatoliy Hrytsenko to back her 
 
KYIV 00000072  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
candidacy in the February 7 runoff to avoid having a 
"convict" as a president.  First Deputy Prime Minister and 
Tymoshenko campaign chairman Oleksandr Turchynov announced 
January 18 that his team would not file any appeals with the 
courts over first round voting.  He alleged, however, that 
three percent attributed to Yanukovych was due to fraud. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Yanukovych campaign spokesperson and MP Hanna 
Herman told an election night press conference that the 
election results showed that voters rejected the "orange 
revolution" and want stability and economic growth.  She said 
that Yanukovych's margin of victory in the first round meant 
that he would easily best Tymoshenko in the runoff. 
Privately, however, some Yanukovych campaign advisors tell us 
that the margin of victory is smaller than their internal 
numbers predicted and that the second round "will be a 
battle" and a "real campaign."  Yanukovych's Party of Regions 
January 18 gathered about three thousand supporters in front 
of the CEC to celebrate his victory and "ensure there is no 
repeat of 2004" when Yanukovych's victory was thrown out by 
the courts.  Embassy attended the rally, which was peaceful 
and orchestrated. 
 
 
EMBASSY OBSERVERS 
----------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Embassy dispatched 17 teams of observers--five in 
Kyiv and 12 to various cities and regions in Ukraine. 
Reports by Embassy observers generally supported the ODIHR, 
IRI, ENEMO and CVU conclusions.  There was confusion in many 
precincts over the rules regarding changes to the voter list 
on election day and for home voting.  Much of this confusion 
was driven by contradictory public pronouncements from the 
Tymoshenko and Yanukovych campaigns of how the CEC or courts 
had interpreted the rules. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  The ten percent difference between the two 
candidates is enough to keep the race competitive for the 
second round.   Tymoshenko's primary challenge will be to 
rally disaffected 2004 Orange voters.   Centrist candidate 
Tigipko's 13 percent exceeded predictions; both candidates 
will make a major play to appeal to these voters. 
Significant court challenges are more likely after the second 
round, especially if results are close.   However, the 
generally free and fair verdict rendered by international 
observers, if replicated in the second round, may constrain 
that option.  We expect Tymoshenko to continue to go negative 
against Yanukovych as a way to rally Orange voters. 
TEFFT