VZCZCXRO5649
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0042/01 0121212
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 121211Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0028
INFO RWANDA COLLECTIVE
SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUCXJAC/JAC MOLESWORTH JCDX RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0006

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINSHASA 000042 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SENV UNESCO ECON EPET PREF CG
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON NYAMULAGIRA VOLCANO NEAR GOMA: SPECIALIST SAYS 
RELEASE OF DANGEROUS GAS IS UNLIKELY 
 
REF: 10 Kinshasa 08 
 
¶1.  Summary:  On Thursday January 7, USAID/OFDA Rep and Goma-based 
POLOFF attended a special briefing by Dario Tedesco, an Italian 
volcanologist with extensive experience analyzing Goma's volcanoes 
and Lake Kivu.  Tedesco said that although lava flows were not 
headed toward any populated area, the lava from this eruption might 
well flow over the Goma-Sake road if the eruption continued for 
several months.  He did not think this was a possibility for at 
least another several weeks, however.  He reassured the community 
it was very unlikely lava from this eruption could release deadly 
gases from Lake Kivu or that it would trigger an eruption of 
Nyiragongo Volcano, much close to Goma.  In terms of humanitarian 
side effects, Tedesco doubted that water pollution would be a major 
concern, but suggested that the effects on agriculture in the area 
could be serious if the eruption continued long term.  Tedesco also 
doubted the value of any possible future "degassing" interventions 
for the lake.  In the days following the briefing, volcanic 
activity has significantly diminished, and the chances that this 
eruption will have major detrimental effects on the populations or 
the environment subsided.  End summary. 
 
 
 
Major concerns 
 
-------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  At the time of Tedesco's briefing, Nyamulagira volcano, 
approximately 35 kilometers from Goma and in proximity to the 
Virunga Park, a UNESCO World Heritage site, was in full eruption, 
with lava flowing both from an external fissure and also beginning 
to fill in the previously-empty crater.  The flow from the fissure 
had, since the beginning of the eruption early in the morning on 
January 2, already traveled 7 kilometers in a southerly direction, 
covering approximately half the distance between the volcano and 
the Goma-Sake road.  By January 7, it was, however, no longer 
moving very quickly, having cooled significantly and having spread 
from a 15-meter wide stream to one over 200m in width. 
 
 
 
¶3.  There were three major concerns at the time:  that the lava 
flow would cross the Goma-Sake road, cutting off access to Sake and 
Masisi from Goma for as long as it continued to flow, that the 
activity of Nyamulagira could trigger an eruption in Nyiragongo 
Volcano, just 10 kilometers from Goma, and finally, that the lava 
would reach Lake Kivu at a point somewhere in the Kabuno Bay, the 
part of the lake near Sake that is almost cut off completely from 
the rest of the lake and which has a different and more volatile 
chemical composition than the rest of the lake. (There had been 
considerable speculation that an influx of lava into this part of 
Lake Kivu could cause a "turnover" of the gas trapped beneath the 
lake's surface and release a deadly cloud of CO2 gas that could 
kill residents of Sake and Minova, similar to what occurred with 
Lake Nyos in Cameroon in 1986.)  It was not a concern that lava 
would reach populated areas since it was not headed in that 
direction and couldn't, for topographical reasons, reach Goma. 
 
 
 
¶4.  As regards the concern of Nyamulagira "triggering" an eruption 
in Nyiragongo, Tedesco pointed out that Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo 
have separate underground systems and that an eruption in one would 
not normally "cause" the eruption of the other and has not done so 
in the past.  He noted, however, that since it was seismic activity 
deep underground that had permitted an eruption in Nyamulagira, it 
could not be ruled out that the same seismic activity might also 
affect Nyiragongo.  There were, he insisted, as yet no signs that 
Nyiragongo was preparing to erupt. 
 
 
 
¶5.  As concerns the Goma-Sake road, Tedesco first noted that 
Nyamulagira eruptions were very common, occurring every 2-3 years 
or so.  He added that though eruptions had been short in duration 
in recent years, the volcano was known to have historically 
undergone eruptions lasting up to 3 years.  Given that the current 
eruption was showing no signs of declining intensity at the volcano 
itself, but rather causing lava fountains of greater height than 
 
KINSHASA 00000042  002 OF 003 
 
 
during the first days of the eruption, and that seismic activity 
had not decreased, Tedesco thought there was still a good 
possibility -- if the eruption continued -- that lava might indeed 
reach the Goma-Sake road.  Given the distance between the volcano 
and the road, and the viscosity of the lava now approaching the 
road, this, however, would not happen for another 3-8 weeks. 
 
 
 
¶6.  Tedesco then turned to the question of the danger of the lava 
eventually releasing the CO2 gas of Kabuno Bay.  He did not feel 
this was at all likely.  In his view, an "overturn" of the lake 
could be caused only by a sudden serious major event, such as an 
earthquake, a large landslide, or a sudden major volcanic eruption 
in or quite near the lake.  He pointed out that the lava from 
Nyamulagira, if it reached the lake, would be traveling very slowly 
and enter the lake over a period of time, not suddenly.  Tedesco 
also felt that historical evidence indicated that the lake was not 
as unstable as some people were suggesting.  He noted that though 
there was much CO2 present, quite close to the surface of the lake, 
"saturation" had not been reached.  Most importantly, the lake, he 
observed, had survived many major "traumas" in recent history -- 
serious earthquakes, large volcanic eruptions lasting years and 
dumping many tons of lava into the lake -- without having 
manifested any dramatic reaction.  By historical standards, the 
present flow of lava from Nyamulagira -- if it reached the lake at 
all (which is 4 km further south than the Goma-Sake road -- was a 
minor event, and very unlikely to cause any special catastrophe. 
Tedesco noted also that even were there a gas release from Kabuno 
Bay, winds -- which normally flow east to west -- would most likely 
carry these towards the west and not towards Goma. 
 
 
 
¶7.  Local humanitarian actors had been concerned that the ash from 
the volcano's eruption could contaminate water sources in nearby 
population centers.  Some tests conducted had confirmed that 
drinking water in some communities was below standards for safety. 
Tedesco pointed out, however, that only communities obtaining water 
from standing sources would be affected.  Spring water, as well as 
fresh rain water, could be expected to be pollution free. 
Regarding the tests conducted, Tedesco doubted that the poor 
quality results had anything to do with the volcano's current 
eruption, but were rather chronic problems for these communities 
living in areas with no good water sources. 
 
 
 
¶8.  The major concern, in Tedesco's view, was the possible effect 
on agriculture in the area if the eruption were long in duration. 
The ash and hair-like debris from the eruption were dangerous for 
grazing animals and for agriculture.  He agreed that moving cattle 
and other grazing stock away from the area would be a wise 
precaution, and suggested that awareness campaigns be conducted to 
ensure that populations washed agricultural products from the Sake 
area well before consuming them. 
 
 
 
Possible risk reduction via degassing of the Kabuno Bay 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  In a private conversation, USAID/OFDA Rep asked Tedesco 
specifically if he thought a "degassing" intervention of the type 
in place in Lake Nyos in Cameroon -- where CO2 is allowed to escape 
the lake gradually through the insertion of a large tube -- would 
significantly reduce the risk of a deadly gas release from Lake 
Kivu at some point in the future.  Tedesco was of the opinion that 
this was not a priority, given both the proven stability of the 
lake and the undesirability of adding more CO2 to the atmosphere in 
the current "global warming" context.  He added that a small such 
operation was already in place in Kabuno Bay. 
 
 
 
Post-briefing developments 
 
-------------------------- 
 
KINSHASA 00000042  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶10.  In the days that have followed Tedesco's briefing, volcanic 
activity at the Nyamulagira source has weakened significantly.  The 
lake has drained and lava stopped flowing from the fissure in major 
quantities.  The original lava flow has veered in an easterly 
direction away from the direction of the Sake-Goma road toward an 
uninhabited forest area, though additional deviations are possible. 
Though the volcanologists of the Goma Volcanic Observatory say it 
is too early to declare that the eruption is for sure completely 
over, it now seems clear that neither the road (still 11 kilometers 
distant) nor the lake will be touched.  There has also been a 
significant decrease in volcanic ash falling into areas west of the 
volcano. 
GARVELINK