VZCZCXRO4258
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #0026/01 0101345
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 101344Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0021
INFO SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000026 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF EAID PGOV PHUM MOPS PINR CG
SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY IN EQUATEUR PROVINCE KEEPS POPULATION ON EDGE 
 
REF: 09 KINSHASA 1144; 09 KINSHASA 1033; 09 KINSHASA 997 
09 BRAZZAVILLE 362 AND PREVIOUS; 09 BANGUI 274 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The local population in the Dongo region of 
Equateur Province remains concerned about insecurity.  Refugees 
continue to flee into neighboring Congo-Brazzaville and the Central 
African Republic (CAR), while the number of IDPs is difficult to 
ascertain due to on-going insecurity and the geographical isolation 
of the area.  Despite the challenges, humanitarian organizations have 
registered small inroads into the area, providing assistance to the 
still fearful IDP population.  Humanitarian and international 
organizations have developed three different scenarios to anticipate 
future needs in the region.  The FARDC has apparently retaken several 
key towns, including the insurgents' stronghold of Enyele.  MONUC 
told us that the GDRC has emphasized that it will first secure the 
region militarily before it will engage in any negotiations with the 
rebels.  The FARDC is apparently feeding and equipping its forces in 
the area; this is thought to be positively influencing troop 
discipline in the area.  End summary. 
 
Situation remains tense 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Over two and a half months after fighting broke out between 
the Enyele and Manzaya tribes over fishing rights, then devolving 
into a quasi-uprising against the GDRC (ref B), the situation in 
Equateur Province remains unstable.  Despite FARDC successes against 
the Enyele insurgents, the local population remains in a state of 
flux, caught between a desire to return home and the fear of violence 
that lingers in the area.  Both refugees and IDPs are living in 
difficult conditions compounded by the challenges of providing 
humanitarian assistance in remote and insecure areas. 
 
¶3.  (U) According to OCHA, there are approximately 85,000 Congolese 
refugees in Congo-Brazzaville as a result of the conflict in Equateur 
(ref D).  In addition, UNHCR estimates 15,000 locals have fled the 
DRC and taken refuge in the Central African Republic (ref E).  In 
limited locations, the refugees continue to return slowly, but the 
situation is still tense.  Many homes in places of return were 
burned, making the transition more difficult. 
 
¶4.  (U) Continued insecurity has made humanitarian assistance in the 
area extremely difficult.  The city of Dongo remains a ghost town, 
while smaller localities, such as Bozene and Boyazala, have 
experienced some returnee movement (Note:  a MONUC contact who 
recently visited the area estimated that only 30% of Bozene's 
population of 18,000 had returned.  End note.).  Numbers of IDPs are 
more difficult to ascertain due to the many unstable and insecure 
zones in the province.  OCHA estimated the IDP population at 
approximately 60,000.  These numbers will likely increase as 
additional data from previously insecure zones becomes available. 
 
Some assistance for IDPs arriving 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Because of the slightly improved security situation in two 
locales near Gemena, the UN World Food Program started food 
distribution on December 31.  More than 50 metric tons of food 
assistance - under MONUC escort - departed Gemena for distribution 
sites at Bozene and Boyazala.  Local NGO AVEP will distribute the 
food rations consisting of maize, beans, vegetable oil and salt for 
one month to 6,000 thousand IDPs in these two areas.  This group of 
IDPs fled the initial wave of violence in late October-early November 
around Dongo, returning when the situation seemingly approved.  They 
registered and then fled in a second wave of violence and 
displacement between Dongo and Budjala, including Bozene.  The 
distribution has received support from the district commissioner who 
has attempted to set up mechanisms to ensure those receiving the 
rations are true IDPs. 
 
¶6.  (U) WFP workers on the ground found the population "jumpy and 
terrified of the FARDC."  After receiving the rations, they quickly 
returned to the forest instead of their homes in the village.  To 
date, there are no reports of FARDC perpetrating human rights 
violations in the area.   This is the first food distribution in the 
region since the fighting began in late October 2009.  Medecins Sans 
Frontieres is also on the ground providing assistance.  Other 
international NGOs in the province are ACTED, OXFAM, CRB, MAG, SNV, 
Memisa, CDI, CTB, Fondation Damien, and ASF/PSI. 
 
KINSHASA 00000026  002 OF 002 
 
 
Scenarios driving humanitarian planning 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Humanitarian organizations have developed three different 
scenarios to plan their assistance.  The first and most optimistic is 
that the conflict will remain contained in the Dongo region with a 
maximum number of about 120,000 displaced persons (30,000 IDPs and 
90,000 refugees).  The most likely scenario is that the South Ubangui 
region will remain in low-level conflict, with approximately 150,000 
IDPs and 120,000 refugees.  The worst case scenario is that fighting 
between FARDC and rebels in both South and North Ubangui will create 
250,000-300,000 IDPs and 150,000 refugees from the 
Gemena-Libenge-Dongo triangle.  A humanitarian assessment team 
composed of WFP, OCHA, UNICEF and MONUC is scheduled to visit the 
Dongo area on January 9. 
 
Political and military situation 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) MONUC contacts told polcouns that there were now 500 UN 
troops in the area, consisting of Tunisian, Ghanaian, Egyptian, and 
Guatemalan forces pulled from Kinshasa and the Eastern DRC. 
Temporary Operating Bases (TOBs) have been established at Dongo and 
Bozene. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) MONUC cannot independently verify FARDC claims that 157 
insurgents had been killed over the last several days.  MONUC does 
believe FARDC assertions that the rebels are retreating from areas 
they had previously held.  The rebels reportedly fell back to their 
stronghold at the village of Enyele, and were subsequently forced to 
retreat to Buburu and Bomongo. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) MONUC highlighted the GDRC's apparent clear preference to 
stabilize the security situation before any negotiations with the 
insurgents could begin.  Discipline amongst the FARDC forces appears 
to be good; the FARDC reportedly provided its forces in the area with 
rations from South Africa, improved radio communication capabilities, 
and vehicles. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) MONUC lauded the transparent and positive collaboration 
displayed by Congo-Brazzaville authorities, noting that ROC forces 
had moved quickly to provide a modicum of security along the Ubangui 
River, the primary mode of transportation in the area.  A joint 
DRC-ROC parliamentary mission could not reach Dongo.  There were 
rumors that there had been opposition from some local politicians to 
the mission, but the details remain unclear.  The local population, 
according to MONUC, has asked for more blue helmets to be deployed. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Comment:   The ongoing conflict in Equateur continues to 
render humanitarian assistance and information gathering about IDPs 
extremely difficult.  A MONUC escort is required for humanitarians 
delivering food assistance.   As WFP observers noted, the population 
appears to be more afraid of the FARDC than of the initial conflict, 
although the GDRC security forces, to our knowledge, have been 
careful not to engage in blatant human rights violations, as they 
often have in other DRC conflict zones.  End comment 
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