VZCZCXRO0826
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0096/01 0181020
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O R 181019Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0029
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000096 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PBTS KDEM KPKO MOPS SMIG SU
SUBJECT: MISSERIYA MIGRATION BECOMING A CRISIS 
 
REF: 09 KHARTOUM 862; 09 KHARTOUM 1389; KHARTOUM 54 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In a conversation with Poloff on January 12, 
Seth Kumi, United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) Civil Affairs 
Chief for Sector VI (Abyei), stated that many Misseriya are 
collecting in Abyei, unwilling to continue their southern 
migration.  The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), attempting 
to enforce a zero-arms policy, is requiring that the Misseriya 
disarm before crossing into Southern Sudan, but the Misseriya are 
unwilling to do so under these conditions.  UNMIS reported a clash 
in Unity State on January 11 in which two Misseriya were killed by 
SPLA forces after refusing to disarm.   The current crisis 
increases the already high risk of violence in Abyei, jeopardizing 
sensitive national issues such as April elections, Abyei referendum 
preparations, and boundary demarcation.  Post recommends that 
Washington support the long-proposed Five Governors Conference, 
bringing together executive leadership from Southern Kordofan, 
Unity, Warrap, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Abyei to create a 
unified security policy governing the Misseriya migration.  End 
Summary. 
 
 
 
----------------------------- 
 
Misseriya Collecting in Abyei 
 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Misseriya herders, making their annual dry-season 
migration south, and already in a high state of agitation over the 
Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling on Abyei, which they 
view as an unjust taking of their land (Refs A, B), are collecting 
in Abyei.  The Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), attempting to 
enforce a zero-arms policy, is requiring that the Misseriya be 
disarmed before they cross into Southern Sudan as part of their 
annual migration.  In a conversation with Poloff on January 12, 
Seth Kumi, UNMIS Civil Affairs Chief Sector VI, stated that many 
Misseriya fear that the SPLA either cannot adequately protect their 
cattle or will steal the cattle for themselves, and are refusing to 
disarm in order to enter Southern Sudan.  Kumi reports that many 
Misseriya have refused to proceed with the migration beyond Abyei, 
while others have returned to Abyei after facing SPLA soldiers in 
Southern Sudan.  Kumi also reports that some heavily armed 
Misseriya-constituted People's Defense Forces (PDF) militia have 
been reported in Abyei.  (Note: The SPLA's stated position on 
disarmament is consistent with that in prior years.  Typically, 
however, the Misseriya and Dinka conduct a migration conference and 
arrive at a compromise by which the Misseriya are permitted to 
carry their weapons into Southern Sudan as long as they keep their 
weapons concealed and do not enter villages or towns armed.  This 
year, due to political tensions, a migration conference did not 
take place.  End Note.) 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
Two Misseriya Killed; Media Inflaming Tensions 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) On January 12, local media reported that SPLA soldiers 
killed two Misseriya shepherds while they tended their sheep and 
injured others before fleeing the scene.  The attack reportedly 
took place in the Abyei Special Administrative District, about 30 
miles north of Abyei town.  In a conversation with Poloff on 
January 13, David Raikow, Political Officer for UNMIS, stated that 
UNMIS had received an unconfirmed report from Misseriya tribesmen 
in the area that they had been harassed by SPLA soldiers and 
impeded in their migration south.  However, no fighting or 
casualties were reported.  (Note: It is unlikely that SPLA soldiers 
were so far north of Abyei town, though the forces could have been 
a southern affiliated militia.  End Note.)  UNMIS Military Affairs 
did report a Misseriya-SPLA clash in Unity State on January 11 in 
which two Misseriya were killed in a fire-fight with SPLA forces 
after refusing to disarm.  (Note: It seems probable that the media 
 
KHARTOUM 00000096  002 OF 002 
 
 
source conflated the two incidents and added local rumors.  The 
unfortunate result is a story that is extremely inflammatory.  The 
editor-in-chief of the media source is President Bashir's uncle. 
End Note.) 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Comment: The dangers arising from the situation in Abyei 
are severe.  An outbreak of violence in Abyei could be more 
destructive than that which occurred in 2008 because the Misseriya 
feel abandoned by the GoS and betrayed by the CPA and the PCA. 
Furthermore, April elections, referendum preparations, and boundary 
demarcation are all sensitive national issues and would all be 
seriously disrupted by any outbreak of violence. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Comment Continued: If a solution is not found to the 
disarmament issue, many Misseriya cattle will not survive this dry 
season, which is especially arid and compounded by an insect 
infestation which killed the grass in the Misseriya's northern 
grazing lands, resulting in an early southern migration.  In 
addition, the Misseriya cattle are already weak due to last year's 
failed migration resulting from fighting that took place in Abyei 
in 2008.  If the Misseriya suffer significant losses of their 
cattle, this will weaken traditional Misseriya leadership, while 
strengthening Misseriya militia forces and armed youth who are more 
radical and for whom land ownership and border demarcation are 
paramount issues.  Post recommends that Washington support the 
long-proposed Five Governors Conference, bringing together 
executive leadership from Southern Kordofan, Unity, Warrap, 
Northern Bahr el Ghazal, and Abyei to create a unified security 
policy governing the Misseriya migration.  Alternatively or 
additionally, the quick formation of a joint or third-party 
security force to accompany Misseriya herds may be a solution to 
the impasse.  End Comment. 
WHITEHEAD