VZCZCXRO0139
RR RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0150/01 0280603
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280601Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0069
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000150 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM SU
SUBJECT: SPLM ANNOUNCES NOMINATIONS FOR ELECTIONS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  From January 14-20, the Sudan People's 
Liberation Movement (SPLM) Polit-Buro (PB) met to review candidate 
selections and nominations.  While the discussions were reportedly 
tense at times, the PB has publicly announced their candidates for 
president, governors and the legislative assemblies.  Members of 
the PB told us that they believe the SPLM will do very well in the 
upcoming elections.  Members of the Nuer ethnic group were 
significantly underrepresented among the gubernatorial nominees. 
However, Secretary General Pagan Amun told us that the SPLM will 
make other concessions to them in the nominations for the 
legislative assemblies.  Amun also told us that in order to 
mitigate local tensions over nominations, the SPLM are trying to 
ensure all SPLM nominated candidates get involved in the 
campaigning for governors.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
-------------------- 
 
YASIR FOR PRESIDENT! 
 
-------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) While the announcement of SPLM Deputy Secretary General 
Yasir Saeed Arman for president came as a surprise to many, 
Minister of Presidential Affairs Luka Biong and the SPLM Secretary 
General Pagan Amun assured us that the decision was made after 
considerable discussion and planning.  Biong told us that there was 
a lot of thought put into making the decision.  He explained that 
Yasir's recent involvement in the passage of the three key 
outstanding laws had impressed GOSS President Salva Kiir and many 
within the SPLM.  GOSS Representative to the U.S. Ezekiel Gatkuoth 
told us that Yasir's name was the third nomination for president 
after Blue Nile Governor Malik Agar and SPLM Secretary General 
Pagan Amun.  Amun told us that the decision to nominate Yasir was 
based on his  credentials as a popular SPLM figure, Muslim, Arab 
and could, in the SPLM's view, "beat al-Bashir." 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Biong agreed with this assessment, but intimated that 
other factors were also at play.  In Biong's view, Governor Agar 
had to run in Blue Nile in order to "save" the state for the SPLM 
and ensure that the popular consultations called for under the 
Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) take place.  Biong felt similarly 
about Abdul Aziz in Southern Kordofan, stating it was more 
important for the SPLM to win the gubernatorial races.  (Note: 
Recent press reports claim that the SPLM will boycott Southern 
Kordofan elections, although post has not been able to confirm that 
with SPLM leadership).  Biong told us that Amun was too easy a 
target for the NCP, who would knock him for not being Muslim or 
Arab.  Biong explained that while the SPLM had wavered about 
putting forth a candidate, the "arrogance" of the NCP when it 
demanded the SPLM not field a presidential candidate, forced the 
SPLM to choose a viable option.  All agreed that it was key that 
Yasir was from the north, not only to win the election, but because 
he would be able to hold on to the presidency after the referendum, 
regardless of the outcome. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) While the majority of SPLM believe that they have a strong 
candidate in Yasir, they did acknowledge the need to build 
alliances in the North.  Biong admitted that the SPLM would 
probably need to look into coalition building, but thought that 
they probably would not enter into any firm pacts until after the 
first round of voting, which he added Yasir would have no problem 
getting through.  Amun agreed that the SPLM would need to seek 
allies in the north, but did not specify who the SPLM was 
considering, while Ezekiel said the SPLM were already speaking to 
Umma Party leader Sadiq al-Mahdi and others in the north.  Amun did 
admit to meeting with a Sudan Liberation Movement Abdul-Wahid's 
faction (SLM/AW) delegation in Juba recently to discuss possible 
coalitions in Darfur and claimed that Abdul Wahid was planning to 
travel to Juba in the near future to discuss a coalition with the 
SPLM further (Note: The SPLM has been reporting that Abdul Wahid 
will "soon" return to Sudan for several months now). 
 
 
 
------------------------------ 
 
KHARTOUM 00000150  002 OF 002 
 
 
Governors Races Are Very Close 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The governors' nominations were very competitive 
throughout Southern Sudan and resulted in a number of tense and 
disputed decisions.  Problems began in some states with the 
establishment of electoral colleges and nomination processes from 
the capitals.  There have been appeals and complaints to the SPLM 
Secretariat about these processes.  Biong admitted that thus far 
the SPLM have not handled the complaints processes well and are 
looking for ways to resolve the controversies. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) In Unity State in particular, an electoral college was 
never established, when opposing SPLM factions within the state 
could not agree on its makeup.  During the PB meeting in Western 
Equatoria, Northern Bahr el-Ghazal, Jonglei, Unity and Central 
Equatoria, governorship candidates were chosen by secret ballot. 
While many believed the vote in Unity would be close, Ezekiel told 
us that the incumbent Governor Taban Deng secured 15 of 27 votes, 
while candidate Joseph Mongtuil supported by the Vice President 
Riek Machar and Paulino Matiep only secured 6 votes.  However, the 
PB decided in order to quell tensions over the nomination, 
legislative nominations in Unity would be split fifty-fifty between 
the two factions.  The unpopular incumbent governor of Central 
Equatoria, Clement Wani, won by one vote to the dismay of many 
within the SPLM.  The situation in Jonglei was also initially tense 
between incumbent governor Koul Manyang and Minister of Energy and 
Mines John Luk Jok; however Jok was compensated for not hindering 
the SPLM gubernatorial candidate with a the legislative nomination 
for Akobo, Jonglei. 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Amun explained that the SPLM made terrible decisions in 
Central Equatoria and Upper Nile, but he believed that the SPLM 
will be able to secure the other eight states in the south, Blue 
Nile and Southern Kordofan, and possibly a governorship in Darfur 
and Khartoum.  He plans to try to mobilize those candidates that 
did not secure the SPLM nominations to support the gubernatorial 
nominees, acknowledging that the SPLM would then owe the 
individuals positions after the elections.  Amun told us that he 
did see a imbalance with the gubernatorial nominations, with only 
two Nuer candidates securing the nominations -- in Upper Nile and 
Unity States.  He explained that the SPLM was trying to ensure 
better ethnic balances through its nominees for the Southern Sudan 
Legislative Assembly (SSLA). 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: The nomination process has not been easy for the 
SPLM, and many believe there are even more difficult times ahead. 
Angelina Teny, State Minister of Energy and Mining in the 
Government of National Unity (GoNU), who comes from a prominent 
Nuer family as wife of Riek Machar has already declared her 
intention to run an independent campaign against the SPLM 
gubernatorial candidate in Unity state.  We do not expect to see 
additional independent candidates from erstwhile SPLM heavyweights 
who felt short changed by the nomination process since the 
nominations process closed on January 27.  On the Presidency, we 
view Yasir Arman's odds of being elected long at best. 
 
 
 
WHITEHEAD 
WHITEHEAD