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O R 201055Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0040
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000108 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SU
SUBJECT: Sudan's URRP Nominates Presidential Candidate 
 
REF: 09 KHARTOUM 1097 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: On January 05, Sudan's Umma Renewal and Reform 
Party (URRP) announced its intention to nominate its Chairman, 
Mubarak al-Fadil al-Mahdi, for President in the April 2010 general 
elections.  Mr. al-Fadil al-Mahdi has a long, patchy career in 
Sudanese politics, and has held a variety of leadership positions 
both in opposition to, and in cooperation with, the current 
administration. Given the relative weakness of URRP, even in 
relation to other Sudanese opposition parties, al-Fadil al-Mahdi's 
chances of winning the presidency are very slim, but his candidacy 
gives an interesting first look at opposition strategies as the 
elections approach. End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) URRP is one of only two Sudanese opposition parties to have 
announced their intentions to nominate a presidential candidate for 
the April 2010 elections.  URRP's January 5 announcement came on 
the heels of a similar announcement from the Popular Congress Party 
(PCP), which declared the candidacy of a Southern Muslim, Abdallah 
Deng Nhial, as its choice (reftel).  Both of these announcements 
were made unofficially, as the window for nominations did not 
officially open until January 12. 
 
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Long Political Career 
 
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¶3. (U) A trained economist and career politician, Al-Fadil al-Mahdi 
is the son of a wealthy, prestigious Sudanese family, and the 
nephew of former Sudanese President al-Sadiq al-Mahdi.  During his 
uncle's administration in the late 1980's, Mubarak Al-Fadil 
Al-Mahdi held a variety of positions, including a month-long term 
as Member of Parliament, and several short stints heading a variety 
of government ministries.  Al-Fadi al-Mahdi is the Chairman of the 
Sudanese Umma Renewal and Reform Party (URRP). 
 
¶4. (SBU) During the Numeiri Dictatorship, and the later military 
rule of the Islamist government, al-Fadil al-Mahdi played a key 
role in the political opposition.  He supported the founding of the 
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and formed a relationship 
between the Umma Party and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement 
(SPLM) that led to the SPLM joining the Alliance.  He lived in the 
UK after the coup d'etat of Al-Bashir, during which time he 
engineered the Chukudum agreement between Umma and the SPLM, as 
well as the Djibouti agreement between the NCP and Umma, which 
allowed for his April 2000 return to Sudan from de-facto exile. 
 
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Split with Umma 
 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Shortly after his return to Sudan, al-Fadil al-Mahdi split 
from Umma over ideological differences, and founded the URRP.  URRP 
began a short-lived relationship with the NCP, which ended with the 
Khartoum government's arrest of al-Fadil al-Mahdi for allegedly 
planning attacks in Khartoum and a coup. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Al-Fadil al-Mahdi is rumored to be in possession of 
significant cash of the Al-Mahdi family and Umma party. Allegedly, 
when, by 1989, the family and party faced troubles with the 
Islamist government, al-Fadil al-Mahdi was asked to flee to the UK 
with the family/party funds, which allegedly were never returned. 
URRP's/al Mahdi's relations with the larger Umma party continue, 
but remain tense. 
 
 
 
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Candidacy A Long Shot 
 
----------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) In a January 6 meeting, Al-Fadil al-Mahdi acknowledged to 
Poloff that he is a long-shot candidate at best, given the small 
number of voters aligned with the URRP. Al-Fadil al-Mahdi has spent 
little time in public office and lacks the charisma of his famous 
 
KHARTOUM 00000108  002 OF 002 
 
 
uncle, former President al-Sadiq al-Mahdi.  The URRP officially 
agreed to boycott the elections process as a signatory to the Juba 
declaration (Reftel).  Al-Fadil al-Mahdi has himself called for the 
elections to be postponed until November 2010, and does not appear 
to be actively campaigning for the presidency at this time.  He has 
also noted that, if the other opposition parties of the Juba 
Conference choose to run another, single, candidate, he will drop 
out of the race. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment: As relatively small representatives of the 
Northern opposition, both the URRP and the PCP must rely heavily on 
their ties with Southern Muslim voters if they are to stand any 
chance in the elections.  It is not clear at this point whether 
Southerners will cooperate with these aims, or, as many political 
analysts have predicted, stay home from the polls, banking on a 
split from the North after the referendum.  PCP leader al-Turabi 
has called for all opposition parties to nominate a wide field of 
candidates, to weaken Bashir's voter base and force a runoff. 
While al-Fadil al-Mahdi will likely win neither the endorsement of 
the broader Juba Conference, or the presidency, he could play an 
important role in al-Turabi's shotgun strategy, should the other 
opposition parties choose to follow suit.  End comment. 
WHITEHEAD