VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLB #0004/01 0050727
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 050727Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6281

UNCLAS BEIRUT 000004 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV KDEM EAID UNSC PTER MARR LE
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MCCAIN'S JANUARY 8-9 VISIT 
TO LEBANON 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: U.S. Embassy Beirut welcomes your January 
8-9 visit as one of the first high-level delegations to 
Lebanon of 2010.  As Lebanon emerges from a six-month 
struggle to form a new national unity government, your 
meetings with President Michel Sleiman, Prime Minister Saad 
Hariri, and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri will reinforce 
the message that the U.S. is committed to supporting 
Lebanon's state institutions and the new government.  Our 
support to the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal 
Security Forces (with a committed total over $1 billion), as 
well as our other robust assistance programs, aim to 
strengthen state institutions, promote economic growth, 
support education, and build civil society.  Your visit to 
Lebanon will show continued U.S. support for Lebanon's 
sovereignty and stability, in addition to highlighting the 
state's obligation to exert control over all of its 
territory.  Your visit will also highlight the U.S. desire to 
gain a better understanding of the Lebanese perspective and 
role in securing a comprehensive and lasting peace in the 
region.  President Sleiman and PM Hariri, in particular, will 
seek assurances that the U.S. remains committed to supporting 
Lebanon and that Middle East peace negotiations will take 
into account their concerns about Palestinian refugees 
resident in Lebanon.  End Summary. 
 
NEW UNITY GOVERNMENT BASED ON CONSENSUS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The new prime minister, Saad Hariri, was able to 
form a cabinet in December after nearly six months of 
negotiations only after he granted the opposition key 
concessions.  Although the contentious cabinet negotiations 
weakened March 14 and strengthened those allied with Syria 
and Iran, most Lebanese leaders appear to be seeking a period 
of calm after years of tumult following former Prime Minister 
Rafik Hariri's assassination and the withdrawal of Syrian 
forces from Lebanon.  Your interlocutors will be keenly 
interested in U.S. engagements in the Arab world, with an 
emphasis on the U.S. relationship with Syria and our role in 
restarting Middle East peace negotiations.  They will likely 
emphasize Lebanese opposition to settling Palestinian 
refugees in Lebanon under any such deal. 
 
KEY U.S. OBJECTIVES: 
INSTITUTION-BUILDING, REGIONAL STABILITY 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Strengthening Lebanese state institutions has been 
and continues to be the primary U.S. objective in Lebanon. 
The U.S. has committed over $1 billion in security assistance 
to the military and police since 2005 in order to help them 
extend their control over all Lebanese territory, including 
those areas dominated by Hizballah.  President Obama 
underscored this vision by emphasizing the importance of 
controlling arms smuggling into Lebanon during President 
Sleiman's recent visit to Washington.  On the civilian side, 
USAID manages robust programs targeting the judicial, 
educational, and agricultural sectors.  The embassy also 
promotes civil society development and supports various 
initiatives targeting institutional reform through the Middle 
East Partnership Initiative and other USG programs.  Your 
visit is an opportunity to reaffirm U.S. support for 
political and economic reform in Lebanon and our ongoing 
support for the various Lebanon-related UN Security Council 
Resolutions (UNSCR), such as UNSCRs 1559 and 1701, that call 
for extending the state's control over all its territory. 
 
SLEIMAN SEEKS THE MIDDLE 
------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) President Sleiman, the former army commander elected 
as a consensus candidate in 2008, has committed himself to 
representing all Lebanese and to striving for unity among 
Lebanon's sectarian groups.  Although the Christian 
president's powers are limited by the constitution, Sleiman 
has emphasized that his absolute priority is maintaining 
stability in Lebanon by balancing internal and external 
political forces.  Sleiman has also sought to return Lebanon 
to its place among the international community, and he was a 
prime force in pushing Lebanon's candidacy for a 
non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which it will 
assume this year.  During his December 14-15 visit to 
Washington, Sleiman publicly emphasized the need for 
continued U.S. assistance to Lebanon, complained of Israeli 
violations of Lebanese sovereignty, and called on the U.S. to 
ensure that any peace agreement between Israel and the 
Palestinians address Lebanese concerns on Palestinian 
refugees. 
 
HARIRI DONS THE PM'S MANTLE 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Prime Minister Saad Hariri, leader of Lebanon's 
Sunnis and heir to his assassinated father's political and 
business legacy, assumed his new role after a grueling 
negotiation with his political opponents.  As the head of the 
primarily Sunni Future Movement, Hariri was a key leader of 
the March 14 coalition and an opponent of Syrian influence in 
Lebanon.  After forming a unity government in December, he 
visited Damascus to establish a relationship with Syria's 
President Bashar al-Asad as part of a regional detente 
between Syria and Hariri's primary backer, Saudi Arabia. 
Hariri will seek assurances of continued U.S. support for his 
country, and you will have the opportunity to urge him to 
strengthen and reform Lebanese state institutions which have 
been weakened by years of neglect, occupation, and internal 
strife.  Despite our extensive security assistance -- 
including the provision of high-tech items such as the Raven 
UAV -- Hariri will likely outline his desire for a "Marshall 
Plan" for the LAF. 
 
BERRI AS LEGISLATIVE LEADER 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Nabih Berri, first elected speaker of parliament 
under the Syrian occupation, has held the position for 18 
years and exerts a strong measure of control over the 
institution.  He also heads the Amal Party and partners with 
Hizballah to represent the Shia community in Lebanon.  Since 
the formation of the new government, Berri has publicly 
advanced a series of reforms, including the abolition of 
sectarianism in the Lebanese political system.  Your meeting 
with him will present an opportunity to seek his thoughts on 
those reforms. 
 
JUMBLATT BLAZES A NEW PATH 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Walid Jumblatt, leader of Lebanon's Druze community, 
was a key player in the 2005 Cedar Revolution that led to the 
Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon.  Although his 
Progressive Socialist Party was part of the March 14 alliance 
from 2005 to 2009, Jumblatt began seeking an independent path 
following May 2008 clashes between March 14 Sunnis and Druze 
and the Hizballah-led Shia.  In August, he formally defected 
from March 14 and has continued building relationships with 
his former enemies in March 8, all while adopting an 
increasingly anti-American tone.  Jumblatt has been clear 
that his primary goal is maintaining the security of his 
Druze followers and repairing his relationship with Syria, so 
your meeting with him will be a chance to sound out his views 
on regional political dynamics. 
 
SISON