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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000046 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS, NSC FOR WALTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: CABINET RESHUFFLE AS CENSURE DEBATE AND 
MORE RED SHIRT PROTESTS LOOM ON HORIZON 
 
REF: A. 09 BANGKOK 2642 (CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS 
        UNCERTAIN) 
     ¶B. 09 BANGKOK 2459 (CHARTER CHANGE ONE STEP CLOSER) 
     ¶C. 08 BANGKOK 3712 (NEW THAI CABINET APPOINTED) 
 
BANGKOK 00000046  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please handle 
appropriately. 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: After months of speculation, Prime Minister 
Abhisit Vejjajiva seems set to initiate a minor government 
reshuffle of Democrat Party figures slightly more than a year 
after taking office in late December 2008.  In the wake of 
Public Health Minister Witthaya Kaewparadai,s resignation in 
the face of allegations of planned procurement 
irregularities, Witthaya will be replaced by Education 
Minister Jurin Laksanavisit, who will in turn be replaced by 
chief government whip Chinnaworn Bunyakiat.  Witthaya will 
then replace Chinnaworn as government whip.  In addition, the 
DPM for Economic Affairs -- Democrat Korbsak Sapavasu -- will 
fill the vacant slot of Secretary General for Prime Minister 
Abhisit, while veteran Democrat MP Trairong Suwannakhiri is 
slated to take Korbsak's place as DPM. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The planned reshuffle is not as comprehensive as 
some would have hoped, however, particularly in view of 
Deputy Public Health Minister and Phumjai Thai member Manit 
Nopamornbordee,s refusal to resign in the face of the same 
allegations of procurement irregularities that toppled the 
Public Health Minister.  The timing of the cabinet moves is 
important, given the looming censure debate in Parliament, as 
well as the promise of renewed red-shirt rallies in the next 
two months with the stated goal of bringing down this 
government.  Further complicating matters for the PM, Abhisit 
must also deal with renewed calls for charter change from the 
Democrat Party's junior coalition partners. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Comment: The MoPH portfolio is important to the USG 
because of compulsory licensing issues, the ongoing 
negotiation of the CDC operating agreement, and the extensive 
MoPH involvement with Mission Bangkok, one fourth of whose 
employees work on bilateral and regional health 
collaboration.  New MoPH Minister Jurin is now Deputy Chief 
of the Democratic Party; his former posts include Deputy 
Minister of Commerce and then Agriculture, and Minister to 
the PM.  Like former Minister Witthaya, Jurin is not a health 
professional; unlike Witthaya, who had no public health 
experience whatsoever, Jurin was Secretary-General to the 
MoPH Minister in 1988.  Witthaya was distrusted by the press 
and many citizens who said he misled the public on the H1N1 
epidemic; Jurin may avoid this problem with his experience as 
Democratic Party spokesman and a reputation for being 
straight-talking and transparent.  Jurin was an IVP 
participant in 1989. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment, cont: Annual cabinet reshuffles are common 
for Thailand's coalition governments, and coalition partners 
are generally given wide latitude to adjust their ministry 
allotments as they see fit.  Given the opposition Puea Thai 
party,s plans for a no-confidence vote later this month, 
however, PM Abhisit must tread even more carefully than usual 
while also contending with junior coalition partners seeking 
to leverage the uncertainty for a bigger piece of the cabinet 
pie.  The net impact of the likely changes will probably be 
minimal; less certain is the impact of red protests, with the 
main push now expected for February.   End Summary and 
Comment. 
 
RESHUFFLE FINALLY COMES TO A HEAD 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) After months of cabinet reshuffle chatter, the 
Minister of Public Health made the first move with his 
December 29 resignation.  From the moment the coalition 
cabinet was cobbled together in December 2008, opponents 
attacked PM Abhisit's government and called for the 
replacement of some key individuals, most notably Foreign 
Minister Kasit Piromya, but the coalition survived its first 
year with only one minor minister change (REF C). 
 
 
BANGKOK 00000046  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶6. (U) Democrat Witthaya Kaewparadai resigned after an 
independent panel named him and ten others in connection with 
budget irregularities and flawed management of 86 billion 
baht in the Thai Khemkhaeng ("Thailand: Investing from 
Strength to Strength") program; a rural doctor activist had 
blown the whistle on the planned procurement irregularities 
before they actually occurred.  On January 6, PM Abhisit 
announced that Education Minister Jurin would replace 
Witthaya, with government whip Chinnaworn Bunyakiat moving 
into Jurin's slot at the Education Ministry, and Witthaya 
moving into the whip job.  Abhisit said that the only other 
change to his cabinet would be the appointment of Democrat MP 
Trairong Suwannakhiri to replace DPM for Economic Affairs 
Korbsak Sapavasu, who had long been tabbed to serve as PM 
Secretary General, filling the void created by Niphon 
Promphan's resignation several months earlier. 
 
PHUMJAI THAI DIGGING ITS HEELS IN 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Key deputy coalition partner Phumjai Thai has long 
appeared content with its position within the coalition. 
Deputy government spokesman and party heavyweight Suphachai 
Jaisamut told reporters in December that Phumjai Thai (PJT) 
ministers would remain in place in any reshuffle.  PJT 
recently came under fire, however, when the same panel that 
implicated Minister of Public Health Witthaya also named 
Deputy Minister of Public Health Manit Nopamornbodi, 
prompting public calls for Manit's resignation.  PM Abhisit 
refused to sack Manit, claiming it was an internal PJT 
decision.  PJT executives on January 5 signaled support for 
Manit, who vowed to clear his name and said he would only 
resign if the National Counter Corruption Commission found 
him guilty. 
 
UNDERSTANDING THE POLITICAL CONTEXT OF THAI COALITIONS 
----------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Thailand's tradition of fractious multi-party 
coalitions, aside from the Thaksin era from 2001-2006, has 
led to some unusual dynamics in coalition management. 
Pre-coalition negotiations determine specific ministerial 
portfolio allocations between parties when the government is 
formed, with the PM usually unable to influence the 
composition of ministers outside his own party.  Each party 
reserves the right to change the composition of "their" slots 
based on its own standards/criteria, and often faces 
pressures between different factions within a party to allow 
for "rotations" between key faction figures.  Even in 
Thaksin's era, such reshuffles occurred almost annually. 
 
¶9. (U) An interesting window into Thai re-shuffle dynamics 
played out in public view in early December 2009 when Deputy 
Prime Minister Sanan Khachornprasart, currently affiliated 
with the Chart Thai Pattana (CTP) party, said he wanted to 
resign to make way for his son, Siriwat, an MP representing 
Phichit Province.  Government opponents quickly cried foul 
and leveled accusations of blatant nepotism, charging that 
Sanan was perpetuating politics-as-usual.  The furor 
eventually petered out as the CTP remained quiet; Abhisit 
brought the matter to a close on January 4 when he announced 
that he had asked Sanan, a former Democrat Party Secretary 
General, to remain in his position. 
 
¶10. (U) Another potential cabinet move looms: Deputy Finance 
Minister Pruttichai Damrongrat from the Puea Pandin Party 
could eventually lose his position following the Election 
Commission,s decision to petition the Constitutional Court 
to disqualify Pruttichai for violating a Constitutional 
provision barring ministers from holding a significant stake 
in private companies.  If a decision comes down prior to the 
end of this government, there would be every expectation that 
Puea Pandin would exercise its right to name a replacement. 
 
PILING ON: PARTNERS DEMAND CHARTER CHANGE 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Adding to the expected pressure from the opposition 
Puea Thai and UDD, Abhisit faces renewed demands from junior 
 
BANGKOK 00000046  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
coalition partners to amend the constitution.  CTP senior 
member Somsak Prissananthakul said the party would focus on 
amending articles dealing with electoral constituencies and 
international treaties (REF B).  PJT leader and Interior 
Minister Chaovarat Chanvirakul publicly stated that if the 
Democrat Party did not take immediate steps to amend the 
constitution then his party would consider joining with the 
opposition Puea Thai to press for the amendments.  Meanwhile 
Puea Thai remained firm in its opposition to amending the 
2007 charter piecemeal and continued to publicly lobby for 
the reinstitution of the 1997 constitution (REF A). 
 
OPPOSITION PRESSURE: CENSURE DEBATE AND PROTESTS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶12. (SBU) The cabinet reshuffle was expected in advance of 
the opposition Puea Thai's promise to file a censure motion 
against the Abhisit government after parliament reconvenes on 
January 21.  Nuttawuth Prasertsuwan from Chart Thai Pattana 
and the Democrat Party's Niphon Bunyamanee both told us that 
reshuffling the cabinet before Puea Thai filed the censure 
motion could strengthen support for the coalition before the 
contentious grilling that a censure debate would almost 
certainly entail, since Wittaya was sure to be a central 
target.  On the other hand, Voravuth Silapa-archa, CTP 
strongman Banharn Silapa-archa's son, told us that the 
censure vote nevertheless still represented a big risk for 
Abhisit and that coalition partners would make significant 
demands of the government in order to stay on board. 
 
¶13. (SBU) At the same time the Abhsit administration must 
navigate its way through the looming censure debate, it must 
simultaneously prepare for the next wave of red shirt 
demonstrations.  The United Front for Democracy Against 
Dictatorship (UDD, or "red-shirts") announced their intent to 
resume protests in January, with the stated goal of bringing 
down the Abhisit government.  Red-shirts planned to kickoff 
the effort January 11 by holding a demonstration in Khao Yai 
National Park near a home in the park belonging to Privy 
Councilor and former Prime Minister Surayut Chulanon.  UDD 
leaders said they would use force if they were prevented from 
carrying out their protest.  Red-shirt leaders also announced 
they would meet on January 15 to finalize plans for protests 
in Bangkok, which they claimed would attract a million 
supporters and lead to the dissolution of the government 
"within seven days."  The final date has not yet been set, 
but red-shirt leader Jaran told us in December to expect 
February to be the "hottest month." 
JOHN