VZCZCXRO6610
OO RUEHIK
DE RUEHTA #0067/01 0250635
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 250635Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7258
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE 2390
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2458
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1752
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1368
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFAAA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1948
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 1798
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 2677
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2967

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 000067 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EAP/CM, EUR/RUS 
 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EPET ECON NATO CH RU UZ KZ
SUBJECT:  KAZAKSTAN:  CHINA PRAISES ASTANA'S FOREIGN POLICY, WORRIES 
ABOUT RUSSIA 
 
REF:  A.  08 ASTANA 0812 
       ¶B.  09 ASTANA 2168 
 
ASTANA 00000067  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, 1.4 (A), (B), (D) 
 
¶1.  (S/NF) SUMMARY:  In his farewell courtesy call with the 
Ambassador on January 22, China's Ambassador to Kazakhstan Cheng 
Guoping (please protect) highly praised Kazakhstan's skillful 
balancing of the "great powers."  Repeatedly emphasizing the personal 
nature of the conversation, Cheng highlighted his view that China and 
Russia must "coexist" in Central Asia.  He expressed a positive view 
of the U.S. role in the region, but cautioned against a permanent 
military presence.  Cheng recommended that the United States urge 
Uzbekistan to invite NATO "as a guest" to attend the June summit in 
Tashkent of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in order to 
increase NATO-SCO cooperation.  Cheng departs Astana February 2 to 
return to Beijing to become Deputy Foreign Minister for Eurasia (the 
CIS).  We suspect Embassy Beijing will find him to be an interesting 
but reserved interlocutor.  END SUMMARY. 
 
FUTURE DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER 
 
¶2.  (S) Arriving in the Ambassador's office with a large gift bag of 
green tea "for the Ambassador's health," China's Ambassador to 
Kazakhstan Cheng Guoping (please protect) stressed his interest in 
maintaining close contact with the Ambassador after he returns to 
China February 2 to become Deputy Foreign Minister in charge of 
Eurasia (i.e., countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States). 
Among the key issues that he will handle, he mentioned relations with 
Russia, the SCO, and Kazakhstan.  Cheng argued, "Kazakhstan's role 
and importance is growing daily and is of great significance to China 
for political, economic, and security reasons."  He underlined the 
need to develop mutual trust in order to enhance Chinese influence in 
the region, especially because of the area's effect on China's 
security. 
 
SOPHISTICATED, SMART FOREIGN POLICY 
 
¶3.  (S) Cheng strongly agreed with the Kazakhstani Foreign Ministry's 
portrayal of Kazakhstan as a bridge between East and West, the OSCE 
and the SCO.  He emphasized the sophistication of Kazakhstan's 
foreign policy of balancing Russia, the United States, European 
Union, and China.  Highlighting Kazakhstan's membership in the 
Commonwealth Security Treaty Organization, the Eurasian Economic 
Community, and the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union, Cheng 
stated that Kazakhstan still "attaches great importance to relations 
with the United States, China, and the European Union." 
 
¶4.  (S) Asserting that Kazakhstan is not a pro-Russian country, Cheng 
called its foreign policy "smart and successful, because good 
relations with China, the European Union, and the United States 
increase his (i.e., President Nazarbayev's) influence when he engages 
with Russia.  All countries in the region want to maintain their 
independence, but Russia wants to regain its regional influence.  CIS 
countries need Russian cooperation and good relations, but they all 
suspect Russia's intentions.  No CIS country wants to return to the 
Soviet period."  Comparing the current situations in Ukraine, 
Georgia, and Azerbaijan, Cheng again called Kazakhstan "smart" for 
cooperating with Russia as well as the United States, European Union, 
and China.  Cheng further argued that Kazakhstan's growing economy 
and influence allow it to resist Russian control. 
 
"CHINA MUST COOPERATE HERE" 
 
¶5.  (S) Elaborating on China's role in Central Asia, Cheng said, "The 
new oil and gas pipelines are breaking Russia's monopoly in energy 
exports and are decreasing the countries' dependence on Russia. 
Because Russia wants to maintain a monopoly on oil and gas exports in 
Central Asia, it dislikes the China-Kazakhstan pipeline (refs A-B)." 
According to Cheng, as China increases its regional "cooperation," 
the Russian Foreign Ministry wants to maintain close contact to 
ensure that it does not "harm Russia's core interests."  Cheng 
 
ASTANA 00000067  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
emphatically declared, "China must cooperate here.  The growth of 
Chinese influence will break the Russian monopoly in the region." 
 
COMPETITION AND COLLABORATION WITH RUSSIA 
 
¶6.  (S) Reflecting on his upcoming responsibilities, Cheng stated, "I 
will have to balance carefully increasing our cooperation with 
Central Asia with Russian interests.  However, we cannot harm our own 
interests because of Russia.  Competition and collaboration coexist 
in Chinese-Russian relations in Central Asia.  Our policy is to 
coexist here.  We must maintain a dialogue and consultations."  Cheng 
asserted that Russia and China can work together on security issues, 
such as terrorism and narcotics, to the benefit of all.  On the 
economic front, though, Cheng underlined their rivalry, and again 
asserted that Russia's reaction will not force it to limit its 
regional cooperation.  "In the future, great power relations in 
Central Asia will be complicated, delicate.  Kazakhstan is very 
smart, aware of the opportunities and that it must maintain a 
balance," he concluded. 
 
SUPPORT FOR U.S. REGIONAL ROLE 
 
¶7.  (S) In contrast to his unease with Russian influence, Cheng 
argued that the U.S. presence in the region promotes a "balance of 
the great powers."  Cheng emphasized China's support for U.S. efforts 
to fight the Taliban and terrorists, calling them a common challenge. 
 Nonetheless, he cautioned, "We have concerns if the United States 
uses the opportunity of fighting terrorists to enhance its military 
presence in the region."  The Ambassador reassured Cheng that the 
United States does not want a permanent military presence or bases in 
Central Asia.  Given President Obama's focus on Afghanistan and troop 
increases, he explained, Manas Transit Center -- and potentially 
other commercial transit centers for goods -- is very important. 
 
"KARIMOV NEEDS POLITICAL SUPPORT" 
 
¶8.  (S/NF) Cheng confided that he had "information" about the 
possibility of a new U.S. military transit center in Uzbekistan and 
called it a "delicate point."  Cheng expressed his belief that 
Karimov will agree to the proposal because "he needs political 
support and assistance from other countries due to Uzbekistan's 
difficulties, poor relations with Russia.  He is using the flag of 
anti-terrorism efforts to decrease criticism of his regime." 
 
NATO-SCO COOPERATION POSSIBLE 
 
¶9.  (S/NF) Replying to Cheng's assertion that "stabilization and 
reconstruction in Afghanistan will take a long time," the Ambassador 
asked if NATO-SCO consultations might be helpful.  Cheng highlighted 
the absence of an established NATO-SCO dialogue before expressing his 
personal viewpoint.  "If NATO wants to establish contact with the 
SCO, the host of the June 23 SCO Summit [Uzbekistan] can invite NATO 
to attend as a guest, which would increase understanding and 
cooperation."  He further suggested, as a first step, the United 
States recommend that NATO attend the meeting because of the event's 
anti-terrorism "content."  He argued, "The United States can attend 
the June 23 summit being hosted by Tashkent as Uzbekistan's guest in 
order to increase contact." 
 
¶10.  (S/NF) Again emphasizing the personal nature of this 
not-for-attribution advice, Cheng stated, "Russia supports it as far 
as I know.  China has not researched the issue, but Russia has ideas 
because of Afghanistan.  If the United States advances the 
suggestion, the Chinese government will actively consider it.  The 
United States must apply to Uzbekistan as the summit's host country. 
The Chinese government will be cautious, but agreement from Russia, 
Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan would be good for the proposal.  The 
United States could attend as a guest of the host country." 
 
NO DIRECT CHINESE INVOLVEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN 
 
¶11.  (S) Cheng argued that the United States should attend the summit 
 
ASTANA 00000067  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
to "maintain stability and fight the Taliban and terrorists in 
Central Asia."  Cheng underlined the importance China attaches to 
Afghanistan and the defeat of the Taliban.  He also emphasized 
Chinese fear of the Taliban and Al-Qaida due to their "support of 
terrorists in Xinjiang."  Nonetheless, he asserted that China does 
not want "direct involvement in the fight because China's capacity to 
fight terrorists is less than the United States." 
 
CHINESE MEASURES TO SECURE THE PIPELINE 
 
¶12.  (S) Emphasizing China's large population, Cheng called 
preservation of security a big task, for which the Chinese capacity 
does not match that of the United States.  He especially underlined 
China's vulnerability to attacks on shipping and pipelines, which 
would strike at the heart of the Chinese economy.  According to 
Cheng, Chinese "measures" to secure the pipeline have included 
consultations between the "security departments" of China, 
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.  He told the Ambassador 
that China has helped to train security personnel and provide 
equipment and weapons.  He said that China annually supplies 
materials to Kazakhstan's Ministry of Interior and National Security 
Committee (KNB). 
 
PERSONAL, NOT OFFICIAL, CONVERSATION 
 
¶13.  (S) Concluding this meeting that took place in the Ambassador's 
officer, Cheng again requested that the Ambassador not quote him.  He 
underlined his concern about dissemination of his personal 
reflections, which he said he conveyed due to his strong personal 
relationship with the Ambassador. 
 
BIOGRAPHIC NOTES 
 
¶14.  (S) Cheng Guoping departs Astana on February 2 for his new 
assignment as Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister in charge of CIS 
countries.  He said he might travel to the United States on 
consultations.  In addition, he plans to visit the United States upon 
retirement.  His daughter currently studies at the University of 
Iowa. 
 
¶15.  (S) This was the fourth time the Ambassador received Cheng in 
his office, where Cheng preferred to meet because, he has told the 
Ambassador, he does not feel comfortable speaking freely in his own 
office.  Even so, Chen exhibits maximum caution, whispering his 
comments in Mandarin (he does not speak English or Russian) to his 
interpreter.  We suspect that Embassy Beijing will find him to be an 
interesting but reserved interlocutor. 
 
¶16.  (S) COMMENT:  Fear about China regularly appears in 
conversations and the press in Kazakhstan.  Some Kazakhstanis worry 
about Chinese control of natural resources and proposals to lease 
agricultural land.  Because Kazakhstanis are attuned to their 
geography as a resource-rich country with vast swaths of uninhabited 
land bordering the world's most populous nation, they convey anxiety 
that the Chinese will arrive "like ants to colonize."  Cheng's 
portrayal of Chinese concerns about Kazakhstan's other large neighbor 
gives another perspective to the power game, which Kazakhstan so 
adeptly plays.  END COMMENT. 
 
HOAGLAND