VZCZCXRO4432
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDS #0025/01 0110517
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 110517Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7356
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0539
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0397
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT 0945
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 6731
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 1234
RUEPADJ/CJTF HOA
RUEWMFD/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 8017

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000025 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/FO, S-USSE, AF/RSA, AF/E, AF/C, AF/W, AND AF/S 
STATE ALSO FOR NEA/MAG, IO/UNP, AND AF/EPS 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
PARIS FOR WBAIN AND RKANEDA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EAID AU
SUBJECT: USAU: AFRICAN UNION SUMMIT SCENESETTER 
 
REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 12 
     ¶B. 09 ADDIS ABABA 2981 
     ¶C. 09 ADDIS ABABA 2945 
     ¶D. 09 TRIPOLI 1036 
     ¶E. 09 LILONGWE 690 
     ¶F. 09 MBABANE 353 
 
This message is from USAU Ambassador Michael A. Battle. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: With less than three weeks to go before the 
start of the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, 
several predictable and recurring themes will take center 
stage: the crises in Somalia and Sudan, the unconstitutional 
changes of power in Guinea and Madagascar, and the 
constitutional manipulation in Niger.  Leadership of the AU 
Assembly of heads of state also is still very much up in the 
air with continuing speculation over whether Libyan Leader 
Moammar Qadhafi will seek unprecedented re-election to a 
second term as AU Assembly Chairperson.  According to the 
AU's regional rotation, southern Africa's candidate, Malawian 
President Bingu wa Mutharika, should succeed Qadhafi.  This 
much is certain: once the dust settles, the AU will have a 
new flag designed by an Ethiopian artist.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The bi-annual AU Summit begins January 25 with a 
two-day meeting of the Permanent Representatives Committee 
(PRC), followed by a two-day meeting of foreign ministers 
from January 28-29, and climaxing with the heads of state 
meeting in the Assembly of the Union from January 31-February 
¶2.  The earlier meetings will develop reports and 
recommendations for the meeting of the Assembly, as well as 
endorse a number of protocols and proposals developed through 
the previous six months.  The heads of state usually accept 
those recommendations as presented. 
 
¶3. (U) Heads of state will devote their first day of 
deliberations to the official theme of the Summit, 
"Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in Africa: 
Challenges and Prospects for Development."  Hamadoun Toure, 
Secretary General of the International Telecommunications 
Union, and Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank, have 
been invited to speak on this occasion.  If recent AU Summits 
are any indication, official themes typically take a back 
seat to more pressing crises on the continent. 
 
Leadership for 2010 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Even before the African heads of state turn their 
attention to ICT issues on the continent, they will go into 
closed session to elect a Chairperson for 2010.  As noted in 
reftels, the question of succession is very much open to 
debate.  If the AU's regional rotation is respected, Malawian 
President Mutharika will inherit the mantle from Qadhafi, but 
no one is ruling out a Qadhafi bid for re-election.  The 
least that can be said is that heads of state will vote for 
what is in their individual national interest.  Observers of 
the process, including representatives from some AU member 
states, assume that Qadhafi can buy his re-election, though 
many support honoring the current rotational system. 
(Comment: USAU would appreciate knowing whether the 
Department plans to follow up with select African heads of 
state regarding their position on Qadhafi's re-election.  End 
Comment.)  If Qadhafi remains in office for another term, it 
will permit him to pursue his agenda of greater regional 
economic and political integration on the continent. 
 
Sudan 
----- 
 
¶5. (SBU) At the Summit a year ago, AU Commission Chairperson 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000025  002 OF 003 
 
 
Jean Ping hinted at the creation of a panel of eminent 
persons who would investigate the Darfur issue and make 
recommendations for a comprehensive solution, including 
reconciliation, justice, and peace.  That panel, chaired by 
former South African President Thabo Mbeki, has since carried 
out its mandate and the AU has asked Mbeki to continue 
leading the implementation phase of his report's 
recommendations, which include steps toward a peaceful 
resolution to the Darfur conflict and implementation of the 
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).  While Ping and the AU 
may take credit for bringing the process along, no one 
imagines that the road to the general elections this year 
will be easy.  Ping reportedly expects a contentious split of 
Sudan.  In December, Ping and Mbeki met with UN officials in 
New York and issued an urgent appeal to the international 
community to support the ongoing efforts to resolve the 
conflict in Darfur, fully implement the CPA, democratize 
Sudan, and normalize Sudan's relations with its neighbors. 
 
Somalia 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Twelve months ago, freshly elected Somali 
Transitional Federal Government President Sheikh Sharif was 
given a standing ovation when he entered the plenary session. 
 A year later, the AU leadership is even more concerned about 
the lack of progress on both the political and security 
fronts in Somalia as well as lukewarm UN support.  The 
December 4 suicide bomb in a Mogadishu hotel that killed more 
than 50 people, including three government ministers, was one 
of several important setbacks for the AU Mission in Somalia 
(AMISOM) and international efforts to address the Somali 
crisis.  AU Commission Chairperson Jean Ping's repeated 
appeals to AU member states to contribute troops to AMISOM 
have gone unanswered, leaving the Burundian and Ugandan 
battalions to protect TFG institutions and key installations, 
such as the seaport and airport in Mogadishu.  AU Peace and 
Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamamra continues to call on 
the UN to prepare for an eventual takeover of the 
peacekeeping role in Somalia.  There is no doubt that the AU 
leadership will appeal to the United States and other 
partners to bring more resources to bear in the fight against 
al-Shabaab.  In this regard, a major development since the 
July 2009 AU Summit in Libya has been the UN Security 
Council's decision in December to impose sanctions on Eritrea 
for its role in funding and training al-Shabaab fighters in 
Somalia. 
 
Coups and Constitutional Manipulations 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The AU's record in responding to unconstitutional 
changes of government and manipulations of the constitution 
has been mixed.  AU leaders take partial credit for helping 
Mauritania restore constitutional order, although in the 
process the democratically elected Mauritanian President was 
permanently ousted from power, and the general who led the 
coup, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, resigned from the military to 
run for president and won.  Guinea-Bissau recovered from the 
November 2008 assassination of its president by holding 
elections in July 2009 that international observers said took 
place without major incident.  From our discussions with AU 
officials, it appears that there will not be any attempt to 
censure Niger's President Mamadou Tandja for manipulating his 
country's constitution in order to extend his mandate. 
Similarly, the Summit likely will not dwell on either 
Zimbabwe or the Great Lakes Region, two thorny issues that 
have not received the level of attention this past year that 
Guinea or Madagascar have.  Recognizing the need for more 
coherent guidelines on the AU's response to unconstitutional 
changes in government, including sanctions, the AU Peace and 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000025  003 OF 003 
 
 
Security Council met in Swaziland December 17-19 and drafted 
a framework that it will present at the Summit. 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) The International Contact Group on Madagascar 
(ICG-M), which met in Addis Ababa on January 6, agreed that 
free, fair, and transparent elections offer the only way to 
return Madagascar to constitutional order (Ref A).  How and 
when to hold such elections, however, remain a bone of 
contention among ICG-M members.  While the French delegation 
advocated conditional support for Andry Rajoelina's election 
plan, the U.S. and others object to Rajoelina's disengagement 
from the mediation process and unilateral actions, and insist 
on the need to return to inclusive dialogue before planning 
elections.  Following Ping's imminent trip to Antananarivo to 
try to unblock the current stalemate, and Madagascar's 
response to the ICG-M's recommendations (requested by January 
25), the margins of the AU Summit will provide a forum for 
high-level discussions to continue on the way forward in 
Madagascar.  An ICG on Guinea is scheduled for January 26 in 
Addis Ababa and may give the AU an opportunity to help put 
Conakry back on the path to constitutional order. 
 
New AU Flag 
----------- 
 
¶9. (U) In the midst of this very loaded AU Summit agenda, 
Africa's leaders are expected to adopt a new flag for their 
organization.  An Ethiopian artist is said to have submitted 
the winning design for the new flag, but the AU has kept the 
design a closely guarded secret. 
 
USAU Takes on Expanded Role 
--------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) Ambassador Carson:  The USAU and bilateral missions 
warmly welcome you and your delegation to the AU Summit. 
USAU has accepted a major challenge for 2010 by agreeing to 
serve as the AU Partners Group chairperson.  In this role, 
USAU will serve as the AU Commission's primary liaison with 
the international partners group and thus assure even more 
access to the AU's senior leaders.  USAU will continue to 
facilitate U.S. engagement with the AU by accompanying senior 
AU officials to Washington for meetings when appropriate, 
coordinating visits of USG officials to Addis Ababa for 
International Contact Group meetings sponsored by the AU, and 
managing USG participation at the biannual AU Summits (the 
June/July 2010 Summit will be in Kampala). 
 
MUSHINGI